Nick Chubb has been a dominant running back in the NFL since his rookie year in 2018. He beat out Carlos Hyde mid-season for the lead RB1 role on the Cleveland Browns and has never looked back. Since debuting in 2018 with nearly 1,000 yards rushing, Chubb has been to the Pro Bowl in three straight years. He’s the perfect running back for the rushing-oriented Browns under Coach Stefanski. They love to run the ball. That’s what Chubb excels at. He’s never averaged lower than five yards per carry (YPC) in any season. Chubb is entering the first year of his three-year $36.6 million extension. Typically, when running backs start their second contract, they start heading downhill, so is that a concern for Chubb?
2021 Season Recap
Chubb finished just outside of the RB1 tier at RB13 overall in PPR. He averaged 15.4 PPR ppg but only appeared in 14 games, so he barely finished as an RB2 instead of an RB1. On the season, Chubb rushed 228 times for 1,259 yards with eight touchdowns. He averaged 5.5 YPC. He added 20 receptions for 174 yards and a touchdown on 25 targets. It was another Pro Bowl year for Chubb. Despite missing a few games, Chubb was dominant in a stagnant offense led by an injured Baker Mayfield. Per game, Chubb averaged 90 yards. As I said, he excelled at rushing the ball last year in his age-26 season.
2022 Season Projections
Chubb has 908 career rushes. That’s below the 1,000-rush threshold and way lower than the 1,500 rushes threshold. This means you can trust that Chubb will hold up longer than most running backs around his age. He’s entering his age-27 season, but with that few rushes, he should still stay elite or above-average for at least two-three more years. With the Browns’ new quarterback suspended for 11 games, Chubb will be relied upon to carry the offense on the ground. Once the Browns get their quarterback back, expect more of a passing emphasis than usual. However, the Browns will still rush more than the average NFL team. The limited rushing will help extend Chubb’s career. He’s built for the long haul at 5’11” and 227 pounds.
I have Chubb playing 16 games since he seems to miss a game at least a year. Plus, it’s wise to do that just because he’s a running back. Chubb will once again have over 1,000 yards rushing with a suitable amount of receiving work. With Kareem Hunt, his receiving and red zone work is vastly limited. However, I think Chubb will sneak into the end zone to match his career high in touchdowns. In PPR scoring, I have him averaging 14.7 ppg. That’s low-end RB1/high-end RB2 numbers once again. His limited receiving work prevents him from being a high-end running back.
Buy/Sell Nick Chubb?
Due to Chubb’s age (soon to be 27) and position, he’s not suitable for rebuilding dynasty teams. You better sell him ASAP before he scores too much to upset your potential tank. For a contender, he’s an elite RB2. Chubb will give you a solid score every week. That’s why every contender should be trying to trade for him. He’s still got multiple prime/productive years left, so he’s not a one-year rental. His injury history has been relatively clean since being in the NFL.
If you’re buying Chubb, he’s worth a mid-late first-round pick plus a second-round pick. His age limits his price, as does his lack of receiving work. However, he’s still a dominant rusher. Averaging 15 ppg is nothing to ignore. Moving all-in to win this year with Chubb is smart if you have a win-now roster. He’s like the last piece you acquire to finish your team.
Summary
Chubb is an elite NFL running back. He reminds me of Derrick Henry rushing with that abusive power against defenders. He runs with authority and refuses to be taken down. That makes him a big name in fantasy football. However, Chubb gets very little receiving work. This limits his potential for points in PPR leagues. It limits his price in dynasty as well. The Browns will eventually pass more, but Chubb will continue getting plenty of rushes. Expect another season like 2021, only with more touchdowns.
Chubb is that final player for a contender’s roster. He belongs only on championship rosters. If you need a running, there are far worse options to trade for as Chubb will age gracefully. Expect another big season from the Bulldog running back.
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