Aaron Jones has experienced much success with fellow Aaron, Aaron Rodgers under center. Over the last five seasons, Jones hasn’t finished lower than RB17 in points per game. He’s been crucial to the Green Bay Packers rush and passing game. During this time, Jones had 4,836 rushing yards, 39 touchdowns, 233 receptions, and 1,821 yards with 17 touchdowns. So, with Rodgers now off in New York, how will Jones do with newcomer Jordan Love? Might Jones be used more? Or will Head Coach Matt LaFleur choose to decrease Jones’ workload in his age-29 season?
2022 Season Recap
Jones had a fantastic 2022 season. Despite being 28, Jones had the second-highest yards per attempt of his career at 5.3. He rushed for a career-high 1,121 yards over 213 attempts. He added two rushing touchdowns to go with a career-high 59 catches on 72 targets for 395 yards and five touchdowns. Jones was a lethal weapon for the Packers’ offense and your dynasty team.
The advanced metrics back him up. Jones was top-ten in many categories, like true yards per carry, yards created, run blocking, and others. One interesting factor was that he was among the league leaders in shotgun carries. The Packers will likely continue to use the shotgun formation with Love at quarterback. Plus, it worked pretty well for Jones to rush the ball. And that formation tends to take a lot of pressure off the quarterback’s shoulders. Expect more of it in 2023.
2023 Season Projection
Jones will once again be in a timeshare with AJ Dillon. However, Dillon has proven not to be near the running back that Jones is. Plus, Dillon isn’t that great at receiving or blocking. That lends more playing time, snaps, and fantasy points to Jones. He won’t rush much more than Dillon, only about thirty or so more carries. However, he will certainly get 30+ more targets.
Thanks to Jones’ lethal usage as a receiver, expect the Packers to use him often in that role, especially with no clear WR1 and a new quarterback. Jones will serve as the safety blanket for Love. That will mean a lot more targets and receptions than in the past. He will once again be an RB1 for the fantasy season. Expect him to finish around RB8-11. Last year, he was RB11, and I expect a tad better season this year. The Packers are making this offense as easy for Love to operate. That will include plenty of easy passes to his running backs and rushing attempts. If you have Jones in fantasy, you’re set up for a positive season from him. He’ll help you get to the playoffs and beyond.
Long-Term Dynasty Outlook
Jones’ time as a premium running back is beginning to wane. Thanks to the Packers’ timeshare, Jones doesn’t have as hefty a workload as many other running backs in their age-29 season would have. However, you can’t ignore that he will only go downhill sooner than later. This is likely his last great season, at least as long as he can stay healthy. Very rarely do running backs perform once they get to 30 years old. Thus, I’d look at selling him. You can get a 1.11/12 pick or two or three seconds for him. If you don’t need him to compete this year, sell him. His value will only get lower.
Jones is a great fantasy running back for this year. He’s elite in the NFL. However, his dynasty value is only getting lower. There’s a reason most running back values in dynasty spike at 25 or 26. Dynasty owners want the youth. So, unless you’re all-in this year, don’t have Jones on your roster. Should he get hurt, his value is done. Don’t take that risk. This is your last shot to sell Aaron Jones at a decent price.
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As always, May the Force be with You…
