Welcome to the Wild Card CheatChart. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional matchups table and highlight potentially exploitable matchups. If you’re curious about the process you can find a full introduction HERE where I lay out the methodology.
How to Use the Wild Card CheatChart
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to THEIR POSITION’S column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they typically score.
Example: Let’s say you’re deciding between Khalil Shakir (WR-BUF) and Najee Harris (RB-PIT). For Shakir, find BUF in the first column. Follow that row over to the WR column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is 14%. That’s a moderately positive matchup. Next, for Harris, find PIT in the first column. Follow that row over to the RB column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is -16%, which is a moderately negative matchup. Given both players are averaging around 11 points per game, I’d lean Shakir.
A Note on DST
As you may have noticed the DST column is quite red. This is due to how the DST position is scored. They produce fewer fantasy points against high-scoring offenses and the playoffs are full of high-scoring offenses. That’s all. I point it out because it’s oddly negative to the other positions.
Offensive Players to Target | Wild Card CheatChart
Great Josh A’Mighty
Josh Allen is the chalkiest of chalk picks this week, but for good reason. He has by far the best positional matchup at quarterback this week. The over/under on the game is moderate and the Bills are expected to lead by quite a bit. That said, he’s put up big fantasy weeks in blowouts throughout the season. Not only did he finish QB2 overall in the regular season, but he had 4 weeks where he finished as the QB1. Nobody has a higher ceiling than Allen this week.
Two Washington Wide Receivers
The positional matchup for the Commanders’ wide receivers is only 10%—which is mildly positive. Compared to the RB matchup though, it’s enticing. The over/under on the game is the best of the week. The spread is only 3 points which means this is likely to be a high-scoring, competitive game. With the Commanders likely to lean into the pass, Terry McLaurin is in a position to succeed. If you’re looking for a budget option for your DFS lineups consider Olamide Zaccheaus. He’s had a few boom games throughout the season and no other receivers in his price range have his upside.
Barkley’s Backfield
If you want to anchor your DFS lineup with a stud running back then Saquon Barkley is the guy. While his positional matchup of 7% is on the border of slightly positive and neutral, we have to look at the peripherals like we did with Washington’s wide receivers. The matchup for QBs, WRs, and TEs are all slightly neutral to negative, and the spread implies that the Eagles will lead through this game. He carved up this defense Week 1 in Brazil, and I expect he’ll do the same this week in Baltimore.
Get Your Just DessErtz
Everything stated above about the Commanders’ wide receivers applies even moreso to tight end Zach Ertz. Ertz has become a red zone favorite through the second half of the year, putting up six touchdowns in the last seven games. His target share has been solid, and while Mark Andrews is the obvious top play this week, I think it’s almost as likely that Ertz finishes as TE1 on the week.
Offensive Players to Avoid | Wild Card CheatChart
What’s Ailin’ Jalen?
Where Saquon Barkley may flourish, Jalen Hurts may flounder. Hurts has been in concussion protocol since Week 16, but that’s likely a roster decision more than a health one. It’s unlikely he would have been able to clear concussion protocols for Week 17 based on how the NFL is handling concussions this season, and the Eagles rested their starters in Week 18. The Eagles are heavily favored and may limit his designed runs to reduce injury risk. Without rushing, his ceiling is limited as the Eagles have the fewest pass attempts in the league this year.
Receivers Down in the Pitts
The Steeler passing game is in a bad spot in Wild Card week. Russel Wilson is the consensus last starting quarterback in rankings on nearly every platform, but oddly, his receivers are quite high. George Pickens is priced well within the top half of wide receivers, but in 2024, he finished as a WR1 just twice. He finished as a low-end WR2 four times and as a WR3 or worse eight times. The Steelers are expected to trail by quite a bit, but if you want to take a shot on anyone Calvin Austin is a cheaper choice and has big play upside. Just recognize that he’s a dart throw at best and not all that cheap.
Three-Headed Bronco
The Broncos backfield is a mess at the moment and predicting who might be fantasy-relevant is a fool’s errand. While they do have a mildly positive matchup, do not be enticed. The implied game script has the Seahawks leading the Broncos by a large margin. That means the rushing opportunity is likely to be small to begin with, and when split into 3 it could very well leave Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime fewer than 10 points a piece.
Taxed in Texas
Throughout the regular season, Dalton Schultz was an occasional streaming option. This week against the Chargers he gets a tough -30% matchup in what is expected to be a low-scoring game. DFS platforms still have him priced as a second-tier option but several other tight ends have better positional matchups and better touchdown upside at a lower cost.
IDP | Wild Card CheatChart
IDP Prop Pick of the Week | Wild Card CheatChart
Fun fact, the Rams were the only team not to give up a sack to the Vikings in the 2024 regular season. While I wouldn’t go so far as to say they will repeat, the Vikings’ defensive linemen and linebackers have a tough job ahead of them. One of Andrew Van Ginkey, Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman, or Ivan Pace will likely get a sack on Matthew Stafford, but picking which one is a tough call. Pace does not currently have active props, and the other three sit at over/under .5 sacks. Cashman has just 3.5 sacks on the year and is the best choice for the “under” but I wouldn’t be afraid to diversify with Van Ginkey or Greenard.
Final Word | Wild Card CheatChart
I will continue to write this article all the way through the Superbowl but naturally the more teams that are eliminated, the fewer positional matchups there will be to choose from. The formatting may change slightly as things are whittled down but you can trust that I will only highlight matchups that are particularly advantageous or tough, I won’t force a tepid situation just to have something to write about.
