Welcome to the Week 18 CheatChart. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional matchups table and highlight potentially exploitable matchups. If you’re curious about the process you can find a full introduction HERE where I lay out the methodology.
How to Use the Week 18 CheatChart
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to THEIR POSITION’S column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they typically score.
Example: Let’s say you’re deciding between Tyrone Tracy (RB-NYG) and Parker Washington (WR-JAX). For Tracy, find NYG in the first column. Follow that row over to the RB column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is -34%. That’s an extremely negative matchup. Next, for Washington, find JAX in the first column. Follow that row over to the WR column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is 10%, which is a mildly positive matchup. Given both players are averaging around 12 points per game, I’d lean Washington.
Teams Sitting Starters | Week 18 CheatChart
Before we dive too far into things I want to cover the teams who will likely be sitting their starters as this will drastically change the expected game script
Los Angeles Rams | vs Seattle Seahawks
While there are still seeding implications that would help the Rams if they won Week 18, Sean McVay said they are leaning toward resting their starter.
Kansas City Chiefs | at Denver Broncos
Adam Schefter reported that Carson Wentz will start for the Chiefs against the Broncos in Week 18. It’s assumed that other starters will not play or will see very little playing time.
Philadelphia Eagles | vs New York Giants
The Eagles released their Wednesday injury report which was rather lengthy—even for a Wednesday. They are locked into the no. 2 seed, and with Jalen Hurts still in concussion protocol, it seems unlikely they would not rest their starters.
Houston Texans | at Tennessee Titans
The Texans are locked into the no. 4 seed, but according to head coach Demarco Ryan, “Everybody will be out there playing.” This is likely due to the crushing defeat they suffered at the hands of Baltimore in Week 17. Still, putting Texans players in your lineup is risky because we don’t know how long they will play.
Buffalo Bills | at New England Patriots
Per head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills will mix starters and backups. Josh Allen will get the start, likely to keep his “games started” streak going, but don’t expect more than a single drive.
Offensive Players to Target | Week 18 CheatChart
Hey Darnold!
If you look at the odds for Week 18, one game stands head and shoulders above the rest. The Minnesota Vikings at the Detroit Lions. This game has a whopping 57-point over/under during a week where most of the teams who drive shoot-outs are resting starters. With just a 2.5-point spread, it should be competitive. Our first highlight of this matchup is Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold.
While he’s been hot and cold through the season, Darnold has finished as a top-12 QB more than half the time, and this week, he has an excellent positional matchup. Detroit has been a shootout machine and opposing quarterbacks have managed to capitalize on that. While he won’t give you the safety of a rushing QB, the touchdown upside is huge. Minnesota is second highest in pass-to-rush touchdown ratio with 79.5% of their offensive touchdowns coming through the air per nfl.com. This is an excellent situation for Darnold in a week where several QB studs will be limited—or out entirely.
Seahawks Soar Over Resting Rams
The positional matchup for the Seahawks wide receivers is moderately positive, and the game is expected to be moderately close. We could see big things from Jaxon Smith-Njigba who has seen a 24% target share over the last 6 weeks. We could see D.K. Metcalf beat out backup defensive backs for big plays, making him worthwhile as a WR2/3. Tyler Lockett has only had a 13% target share as of late, so he should be seen as a deep flex at best. It’s hard to bench him given his previous late-season league-winning performances, but at 32, those games might be behind him.
Steeling for the Cold
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are in a good spot for fantasy in Week 18. They get the second-best positional matchup in the league for running backs, and their game is expected to be high-scoring. Harris has the better ceiling given he’s seen approximately four times the red zone rushes as Warren has this year, putting him as a strong RB2. Warren has been hauling in more receptions, but the Steelers are not expected to trail (and there is potential for it to become a snow game). If it does, then Warren should be treated as a risky flex.
The Second Sam of Sunday Night Football
In the QB section, I laid out why the Vikings vs Lions game is a good situation, and on the side opposite of Sam Darnold, nobody looks better than Sam LaPorta. Minnesota is the very best positional matchup for tight ends in the league right now. While his performance against the Vikings in Week 7 was underwhelming, the current situation is too good to pass up.
Offensive Players to Avoid | Week 18 CheatChart
Put the Kibash on Kyler
Kyler Murray has been a disappointment for fantasy in the last stretch of the season, putting up just one top-12 performance since their bye in week 11. This week, Murray faces the 49ers who have been extremely tough for opposing quarterbacks, limiting them to 21% fewer points than average. What’s more is that Joshua Dobbs is expected to start for the 49ers, and odds have shifted further, implying the Cardinals could gain the lead early and lean on their running backs. He can be started in 2 quarterback leagues, but recognize that Kyler Murray’s floor is unusually low this week.
The Passtronaut’s Receivers
On the other side of that game are the 49ers receiving weapons who have tough matchups this week. The wide receivers are in a tough spot, and George Kittle has it even worse. It’s hard to trust Deebo Samuel in lineups given his touchdown dependency this season. Ricky Pearsall finally had his fantasy breakout in Week 17, but it was against the Lions who are a far better matchup and game situation. The one exception is Jauan Jennings. Dobbs threw four passes in Week 17, 3 of which were to Jennings. Jennings and Dobbs have a history going back to college, and while that might be narrative driven, those three targets speak volumes.
Saints Split Backfield
It’s hard to bet against late-season Alvin Kamara, but he’s still questionable and hasn’t suited up since Week 15. With Kamara out, the rushing volume has been limited and split. The Saints rushed just 13 times in Week 17, and leading them was new addition Clyde Edwards-Helaire with 5 carries. This week, they have a tough positional matchup, and it’s clear that they don’t trust any one player to carry the load. The Saints are expected to trail by quite a bit, so Kamara would be the only one of interest thanks to his receiving ability. Otherwise, pass on Kendre Miller, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Jamaal Williams.
Ravens Clipped with Huge Spread
Last week, the Ravens trounced the Texans 31-2. While Mark Andrews made his week with a touchdown, he had just two targets. The Ravens are favored over the Browns by 17.5 points. That means they’ll likely get ahead early and run out the clock. Andrews could save his week with a touchdown, but it would need to happen early as his opportunities will be limited. He’s still ahead of other touchdown-dependent tight ends, but below the higher-volume guys this week.
IDP | Week 18 CheatChart
IDP Targets | Week 18 CheatChart
Miami Linemen Looking Good
You can return to Miami’s defensive line for IDP production in Week 18. Zach Seiler is an every-week starter, but look for Emmanuel Ogbah or Calais Campbell if you’re looking for a streamer. Ogbah is coming off a season-high score and while Campbell has been quiet lately, he did have a handful of big weeks in the first half of the season. Ogbah is the better pickup of the two if you have the option.
Tennessee Linebacker Depth Options
As you can see on the CheatChart, there aren’t any amazing standouts at linebacker this week, but a few teams have solid matchups. The Titans have a few guys that might be available on waivers yet. Jerome Baker had a big outing in Week 17 and could repeat. Luke Gifford is the better addition—if not for a concussion, he’d likely have 100% of snaps over the last 4 games. With a mildly positive positional matchup, Gifford could capitalize on the opportunity once again.
Dallas Defensive Backs
The Cowboys DBs have an excellent positional matchup against Washington who has been great for opposing backs. DaRon Bland is always a good upside dart throw. Malik Hooker has solid upside, and keep an eye on injury reports for Donavan Wilson. Wilson left the game early with a knee injury, and if he misses time, then Juanyeh Thomas is the next man up.
Final Word | Week 18 CheatChart
As we move into the playoffs I’ll continue this chart along with the accompanying write-up, with more of a focus on DFS rather than dynasty/redraft. Not much will change. I’ll be focusing even more on upside plays and instead of referring to the trade value of a player, I may refer to their DFS salary. If you have any questions, comments, or recommendations for the post-season (or for next year) please reach out as I love hearing from you all!
If you haven’t seen our Mock Draft series, we highly recommend getting ahead of your league mates this season for the 2025 Rookie Class by reading our experts’ top prospects for the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft:
