- IDP Fantasy Start/Sit Advice | Week 17 of THE BLINDSIDE
- Positional Matchups | Week 17 CheatChart | Find the Best Fantasy Performers
- Week 17 Start/Sit | The Best Player Targets for Championship Week
- Week 17 Sunday Preview for Start/Sit | THE FULL SLATE
Bring out the trophies! Fire up the cannons! It’s Championship Week for our fantasy football teams and we at Dynasty Nerds couldn’t be prouder of all of you. Whether you’re back-to-back defending your title, scraping by from the #6 seed, or praying to the football gods to let you win 3rd place this year—we’ve got you covered in our Week 17 Start/Sit series. Our Senior NFL Nerds have been hard at work all season to bring you elite fantasy content. We’re grateful to have you with us till the end, and we hope you’ll share your success stories with us!
- Quarterbacks: Mike Hicks | @DropTheMikeFF
- Running Backs: Mychal Warno | @DynastyDadMike
- Wide Receivers: Tristan Cook | @TheTristanCook
- Tight Ends: Steven Pintado | @CoachStevenP
- Rankings by the above
Win Your Championship | Start/Sit and Rankings | IDP | CheatChart | Full Slate
START | Quarterback | Week 17 Start/Sit
1QB | Kyler Murray | Cardinals | QB6
Kyler Murray will look to have a big game in Week 17, even though the Arizona Cardinals are out of playoff contention. According to Fantasy Points Data Suite, Murray has a completion rate of 68.6%, 6th in the NFL. Murray has thrown for 219.2 PaYPG, 16 TDs, and 9 INTs (FPDS). He has had 7 20-plus fantasy point performances, including 28.5 FP against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2. He will also look to get back on track in the rushing game. With 2 games left in the NFL regular season, Murray is 82 yards and 1 TD short of a $750,000 dollar contract incentive.
Kyler Murray faces off against the division-leading Los Angeles Rams in Week 17. The Rams have given up 5 20-plus fantasy point performances to QBs, including Murray’s aforementioned 28.5 in Week 2. According to Data Nerd Brad Custer’s Positional CheatChart, Murray has a neutral matchup against the Rams. The Dynasty Nerds GM Tool has Murray projected for 19.24 fantasy points. The Rams can stay on top of the division with a win, and Murray will look to play spoiler. Go ahead and put Murray in all fantasy formats in championship week, where I expect him to be a top 10 QB.
SuperFlex | Mason Rudolph | Titans | QB12
Surprise, surprise, surprise! It’s championship week, and we are talking about Mason Rudolph. Rudolph has started 4 games for the Tennessee Titans and was named the starting QB before Week 16, replacing the struggling Will Levis. On the season, he has 8 TDs—6 of those coming in his 4 starts (FPDS). In the passing game, Rudolph will look for his favorite targets, Calvin Ridley and Chigoziem Okonkwo. In Rudolph’s starts, they have 25.5% and 15.2% target share respectively (FPDS). Will Rudolph be able to be a league winner for you in Week 17?
The Tennessee Titans faceoff against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17. This matchup could be Mason Rudolph’s best Christmas gift yet. Through Week 16, the Jaguars have allowed the NFL’s most passing yards at 276.5 PaYPG (FPDS). They also have a hard time getting to the QB, having the NFL’s 3rd-fewest sacks with only 28. The Jaguars have given up 17.99 FPPG through the air, the most in the NFL (FPDS). According to the CheatChart, Rudolph is expected to score 16% more fantasy points than his season average. In a matchup against the Jaguars, an ECR of QB25 is too low. You should feel comfortable starting Rudolph in your Superflex leagues in Week 17.
SIT | Quarterback | Week 17 Start/Sit
1QB | Jared Goff | Lions | QB14
The Detroit Lions and quarterback Jared Goff have had a successful season. Goff is QB6 in FPPG heading into championship week. He is averaging 273.0 PaYPG and has the NFL’s 4th-most passing TDs with 33, which is already a career-high (FPDS). Goff is on pace to have the highest completion rate of his career at 71.4% and has had multiple TDs in his last 4 games. But, matchups are key. Can Goff do it again in only his 3rd outdoor game of the year?
In Week 17, the Detroit Lions travel to the West Coast to play against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are allowing 195.4 PaYPG and 6.56 YPA, 2nd and 3rd-fewest in the NFL, respectively (FPDS). Goff has the worst matchup, according to the CheatChart, in Week 17. The 49ers are expected to only allow 74% of Goff’s season average (-26% matchup). In Superflex leagues, Goff is a must start. I recommend sitting him in 1QB leagues if at all possible.
SuperFlex | Aaron Rodgers | Jets | QB21
In the last few weeks, Aaron Rodgers has shown signs of what we expected all season. Rodgers has 234.1 PaYPG, but in the last 4 games he is averaging 267.3 PaYPG (FPDS). Yes, he has finished as a top-12 QB twice in his last 3 games, but not everything is bright and shiny for Rodgers. He has finished outside the top 20 in 4 out of his last 6 games. Earlier this season, his success against the Buffalo Bills came off the play-action attack. If the Jets can’t get the run game going, can Rodgers be successful?
The New York Jets will face their upstate rival, the Buffalo Bills in Week 17. The Bills are allowing 244.3 PaYPG (FPDS). The Bills have given up 3 games of 18-plus fantasy points to QBs since Week 8, and 2 of those were against the likes of Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford. Rodgers is expected to score 8% more than his average against the Bills (CheatChart). With the Bills looking to secure the #2 seed in the playoffs with a win, I don’t expect it to be easy sledding for Rodgers this week. If you can, keep Rodgers on your bench in all formats.
START | Running Back | Week 17 Start/Sit
RB1 | Breece Hall | New York Jets | RB 12
It’s been an overall disappointing year for Breece Hall managers. However, if you made it to the fantasy championship with Hall, he has a great matchup this week against the Buffalo Bills. Hall has only rushed for 100 yards once this season, which came against the Bills in Week 6.
In Week 6, Hall totaled a season-high 169 scrimmage yards. According to Fantasy Points Data Suite, Buffalo has allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to running backs this season. In Week 16, Hall received 74% of the team’s carries and 86% of the targets for the running backs. Hall has regained the trust of the Jets coaching staff and should also regain your trust.
RB2 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | New York Giants | RB 18
Tracy’s availability is a situation to monitor, so make sure to check the Giants practice reports. Tracy has had double-digit performances in 3 of his last 4 games. Tracy has also finished as an RB2 or better in 5 of his last 6 games.
According to Data Nerd Brad Custer‘s CheatChart, Tracy has a plus matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who have allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to backs this year and have also struggled against pass-catching running backs in particular.
Flex | Tyjae Spears | Tennessee Titans | RB 23
If you need a flex worthy running back start, I suggest Tyjae Spears. Spears has finished as the overall RB5 and RB10 while splitting work with Tony Pollard. He has also seen his snap count increase and out snapped Tony Pollard in Week 16.
In Week 17, Spears gets the Jacksonville Jaguars who have been terrible at stopping running backs lately. Spears has scored four touchdowns in his last two games and looks to be the more explosive back in Tennessee.
SIT | Running Back | Week 17 Start/Sit
RB1 | Alexander Mattison | Las Vegas Raiders | RB 29
Alexander Mattison led the Raiders’ backfield in snaps and touches in Week 16. However, his backfield teammate Ameer Abdullah outperformed him in fantasy points on fewer touches. The matchup is favorable against the New Orleans Saints, but I wouldn’t want to rely on Mattison to help win my fantasy championship.
RB2 | Javonte Williams | Denver Broncos | RB31
Javonte Williams fantasy managers have been very frustrated this year. While the matchup against the Cincinatti Bengals is a positive one, Williams has been very unpredictable. In Week 16, Williams saw 11 targets but was only able to translate that into 12.3 fantasy points.
The Denver Broncos crowded backfield could also continue to grow with the possible return of Jaleel McLaughlin. The return of McLaughlin will limit Williams in the receiving game. While I have Javonte Williams as the highest-ranked Broncos running back, I would not want to start any of them in a championship matchup.
Spotlight | Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | RB 25
Rhamondre Stevenson has only finished as an RB2 or better once over the last four weeks. Stevenson has seen his snap count decrease over the past 3 weeks, and saw a season-low 44% in Week 16. Stevenson also fumbled a pass that turned into a defensive touchdown for the Buffalo Bills.
Per Patriotswire, Patriots coach Jerod Mayo left the door open for running back Antonio Gibson to start over Rhamondre Stevenson, when asked by the media on Monday. Stevenson is a very risky play in Week 17.
START | Wide Receiver | Week 17 Start/Sit
WR1 | Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | WR 9
If you’ve followed along this season, you know that each week we look for one primary indicator of future fantasy success: targets. This year, Garrett Wilson is the fourth-most targeted receiver in the NFL. Yet somehow, the ECR has Wilson ranked WR25 for Week 17. I am much more bullish on the former Ohio State product in this game.
Despite a dip in targets (13 over the last 2 games), Wilson is an integral part of this passing attack. In the last matchup with Buffalo, he went for 8/107/1 on 10 targets. After the loss last week, Wilson voiced his displeasure for the lack of targets. I expect the squeaky wheel to get the grease, so you should feel good starting Garrett WIlson this week.
WR2 | Jayden Reed | Green Bay Packers | WR 16
Jayden Reed has been quiet for a few weeks, but I am expecting a change in Week 17. Reed doesn’t have the same high number of targets of players that I often recommend. But, he’s the kind of player that doesn’t need a heavy target share to make a big impact.
Reed has been a fringe WR3 the last two weeks, but the matchup with Minnesota is about as good as you can get. The Vikings allow 248.7 passing yards per game, the 3rd-most in the league. Last time Green Bay played them, Jayden Reed put up 7 catches for 138 yards and a TD, good enough for the WR2 on the week. I expect a big week again in this one. Start him with confidence.
WR3 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | Arizona Cardinals | WR 17
It’s been an up-and-down rookie season for the former Ohio State standout, Marvin Harrison Jr. After a quiet stretch in the middle of the year, Harrison has seen a burst over the last month. His 8.5 targets per game over the last 4 games is top-20 in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals may have been eliminated from playoff contention with their loss last week, but playing spoiler against a division rival is plenty of motivation for Week 17. The Los Angeles Rams are a below-average pass defense, allowing 220.0 passing yards per game. The ECR for Harrison is WR34. However, I expect a heavy target share and the potential for a big game.
Flex | Brandin Cooks | Dallas Cowboys | WR 38
If you are searching for a big week to win your championship, Brandin Cooks could be exactly what you need. After CeeDee Lamb was put on IR, the passing attack for the Dallas Cowboys needs someone to step up. Enter Brandin Cooks.
I am certainly not projecting that Cooks will put up CeeDee Lamb-like numbers. However, someone will see an increase in targets, and I believe it will be Cooks. His ECR is the WR64, but I see WR36 as his floor with the potential for a “boom“ week. Not that I like to read into narratives too often, but this is a “revenge game“ for the former Houston Texan. You could do much worse than Brandin Cooks in Week 17.
SIT | Wide Receiver | Week 17 Start/Sit
WR2 | Jerry Jeudy | Cleveland Browns | WR 47
I had Jerry Jeudy as a “sit” for Week 16 and he once again finds his name on the wrong side of this list. The analysis last week holds true to this matchup with the Dolphins. After receiving 61 targets over his last 6 games (10.2/game), Jeudy was only targeted 3 times last week against Cincinnati.
While I do expect Jeudy to see a couple more targets this week, there’s no way he’ll be in my starting lineup in a championship. The Miami Dolphins have a slightly better-than-average pass defense, but the real cause for concern is Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I would much rather play Brandin Cooks this week than Jerry Jeudy.
FADE | Malik Nabers | New York Giants | WR 24
I know the main thing we look for each week is targets, and that’s the only reason that Malik Nabers is a “fade” rather than a “sit”. The Giants have an atrocious passing game. Despite trailing for the majority of the season and having the 8th-most pass attempts in the NFL, New York has the 5th-fewest passing yards per game. Whether it’s Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito under center, this passing game should be avoided.
This season, Malik Nabers has 3 games with fewer than 10 targets (7 in W1, 8 in W7, and 9 in W12). In fact, he is the most-targeted player in the NFL. However, he only has one week inside the top-12 WRs since Week 4. The talent is unquestionable. But, until Shedeur Sanders is throwing passes his way, putting Malik Nabers in your lineup is a legitimate question.
START | Tight End | Week 17 Start/Sit
Redemption | Trey McBride | Arizona Cardinas | TE 2
Arizona tight end Trey McBride disappointed many fantasy managers with a very poor performance of 3 receptions for 20 yards last week. The worst part was that he had the best matchup of the weekend versus the Panthers. In the Championship game, you should forgive and keep him in your starting lineups this week.
McBride is obviously one of the elite tight ends and has performed that way all season. There is still the luck of the fantasy gods that he scores his first touchdown of the season in Week 17. He’ll face off against the Rams in an important game. While it is not important to the Cardinals since their playoff hopes are over, trying to knock out your division rival will be. In the last 3 games for McBride against the Rams, he averaged at least 60 receiving yards. The Rams defense has allowed at least 60 yards to their previous 2 opposing tight ends. McBride should bounce back.
TE1 | Jake Ferguson | Dallas Cowboys | TE7
Jake Ferguson had his first solid outing since Week 9, finishing Week 16 with 10 fantasy points. The biggest news is that star receiver CeeDee Lamb is out for the rest of the season due to his shoulder injury. Ferguson already has a solid target share of 15.9% per Fantasy Points. You should expect that to rise in Week 17 as they take on the Eagles.
The Eagles are a better team against tight ends, but that usually doesn’t seem to matter to Dallas. They continue to find ways to get their tight ends the ball, especially in the red zone. The Eagles have only played a handful of good tight ends, who saw high target shares against them and performed well. Dallas knows that they have a chance to hurt the Eagles in the playoff standings, so expect them to play hard. Ferguson should see upward of 7 targets and see an opportunity to score on Sunday.
Streamer | Chigoziem Okonkwo | Tenneesse Titans | TE8
Our tight end streamer for Week 17 is Titans’ Chigoziem Okonkwo. The young tight end has played well in back-to-back games. He has double-digit fantasy points in three of the last five games. The change at quarterback to Mason Rudolph has helped the passing game to be a bit more consistent. Rudolph has focused in on Okonkwo, with 21 targets in his last 2 games. He has responded with 17 receptions for 140 yards.
Okonkwo will face off against Jacksonville, who has been a bottom-10 defense against fantasy tight ends. They have allowed a TE1 in two of the last four games. You may be hesitant to play Okonkwo since 3 weeks ago he had just 8 yards against the Jaguars. That was Will Levis and not Mason Rudolph. Okonkwo’s big play ability for this offense and recent target increase should offer an upside to start him in Week 17.
SIT | Tight End | Week 17 Start/Sit
TE1 | Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | TE 10
Hunter Henry has been a bit inconsistent with his fantasy production. In his last 6 games, he has 3 that he was able to produce 10 or more fantasy points. He usually has been able to do well, as he sees more than 4 targets in games. The tricky situation is that Henry has 64 yards over his last two games, which is fewer than backup Austin Hooper’s 93 yards.
Henry will face off against the Chargers in Week 17. They are a top-5 defense against tight ends this season. The Chargers are tied with a league-low one touchdown surrendered to a tight end. Since Week 8, Los Angeles has not allowed a tight end to gain over 50 receiving yards. While Henry has been reliable at times, his could be one of those matchups where he doesn’t have a good day without a touchdown.
Spotlight | T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | TE6
Our tight end spotlight is a player who has been inconsistent in fantasy since his return to the field. T.J. Hockenson has not lived up to his talent this season. Whether it’s the focus on the receivers, or he is still getting back into the groove from his injury, Hockenson has been a liability in lineups. In his 8 games this season, Hockenson has only 3 games over 10 fantasy points. He performs well when he catches at least 5 balls in a game.
He’ll face off against the Packers in a big NFC North clash between two elite teams. The Packers this season have been a bit inconsistent in stopping fantasy points. Six times this season, Green Bay has allowed 10 or more fantasy points performances. They happen when an opposing tight end sees 5 or more receptions in those games. When they don’t, it becomes a below-average game for those tight ends. Hockenson is likely a risky player to start, and I’d look for other options if I can. The Vikings have focused in on their receives, and Hockenson has been left out. Take the risk if you want, but Hockenson doesn’t seem set up for greatness in the final week.
SuperFlex PPR Rankings | Week 17 Start/Sit
| Rank | Quarterback | Rank | Running Back | Rank | Wide Receiver | Rank | Tight End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Jalen Hurts | RB1 | Saquon Barkley | WR1 | Ja’Marr Chase | TE1 | Trey McBride |
| QB2 | Josh Allen | RB2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | WR2 | Justin Jefferson | TE2 | George Kittle |
| QB3 | Jayden Daniels | RB3 | De’Von Achane | WR3 | Puka Nacua | TE3 | Brock Bowers |
| QB4 | Justin Herbert | RB4 | Bijan Robinson | WR4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | TE4 | Sam LaPorta |
| QB5 | Baker Mayfield | RB5 | Josh Jacobs | WR5 | Mike Evans | TE5 | Jonnu Smith |
| QB6 | Kyler Murray | RB6 | Kyren Williams | WR6 | Brian Thomas Jr. | TE6 | T.J. Hockenson |
| QB7 | Joe Burrow | RB7 | Chase Brown | WR7 | A.J. Brown | TE7 | Jake Ferguson |
| QB8 | Brock Purdy | RB8 | Johnathan Taylor | WR8 | Davante Adams | TE8 | Chig Okonkwo |
| QB9 | Sam Darnold | RB9 | Bucky Irving | WR9 | Garrett Wilson | TE9 | Dalton Kincaid |
| QB10 | Anthony Richardson | RB10 | Chuba Hubbard | WR10 | Jordan Addison | TE10 | Hunter Henry |
| QB11 | Bo Nix | RB11 | James Cook | WR11 | Terry McLaurin | TE11 | Zach Ertz |
| QB12 | Mason Rudolph | RB12 | Breece Hall | WR12 | Ladd McConkey | TE12 | Juwan Johnson |
| QB13 | Matthew Stafford | RB13 | James Conner | WR13 | Tee Higgins | TE13 | Austin Hooper |
| QB14 | Jared Goff | RB14 | Aaron Jones | WR14 | Courtland Sutton | TE14 | Brenton Strange |
| QB15 | Drake Maye | RB15 | Brian Robinson Jr. | WR15 | Tyreek Hill | TE15 | Tyler Higbee |
| QB16 | Tua Tagovailoa | RB16 | Isaac Guerendo | WR16 | Jayden Reed | TE16 | Tommy Tremble |
| QB17 | Bryce Young | RB17 | Jerome Ford | WR17 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | TE17 | Kyle Pitts |
| QB18 | Aiden O’Connell | RB18 | Tyrone Tracy Jr | WR18 | Drake London | TE18 | Payne Durham |
| QB19 | Jordan Love | RB19 | Rico Dowdle | WR19 | Jauan Jennings | TE19 | Mike Gesicki |
| QB20 | Michael Penix | RB20 | Rachaad White | WR20 | Cooper Kupp | TE20 | Grant Calcaterra |
| QB21 | Aaron Rodgers | RB21 | J.K. Dobbins | WR21 | Adam Thielen | TE21 | Foster Moreau |
| QB22 | Spencer Rattler | RB22 | J.K. Dobbins | WR22 | Calvin Ridley | TE22 | Tyler Conklin |
| QB23 | Mac Jones | RB23 | Tyjae Spears | WR23 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | TE23 | Daniel Bellinger |
| QB24 | Drew Lock | RB24 | Tony Pollard | WR24 | DeVonta Smith | TE24 | Ja’Tavion Sanders |
| RB25 | Rhamondre Stevenson | WR25 | Malik Nabers | ||||
| RB26 | Kendre Miller | WR26 | Jameson Williams | ||||
| RB27 | Travis Etienne Jr | WR27 | Khalil Shakir | ||||
| RB28 | Ameer Abdullah | WR28 | Jakobi Meyers | ||||
| RB29 | Alexander Mattison | WR29 | Josh Downs | ||||
| RB30 | Tank Bigsby | WR30 | Jalen McMillan | ||||
| RB31 | Javonte Williams | WR31 | Darnell Mooney | ||||
| RB32 | Kimani Vidal | WR32 | Romeo Doubs | ||||
| RB33 | Jaleel McLaughlin | WR33 | Michael Pittman Jr. | ||||
| RB34 | Antonio Gibson | WR34 | Quentin Johnston | ||||
| RB35 | Tyler Allgeier | WR35 | Jalen Coker | ||||
| RB36 | Raheem Mostert | WR36 | DeMario Douglas | ||||
| WR37 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | ||||||
| WR38 | Brandin Cooks | ||||||
| WR39 | Wan’Dale Robinson | ||||||
| WR40 | Amari Cooper | ||||||
| WR41 | Joshua Palmer | ||||||
| WR42 | Ray-Ray McCloud III | ||||||
| WR43 | Christian Watson | ||||||
| WR44 | Marvin Mims Jr. | ||||||
| WR45 | Kayshon Boutte | ||||||
| WR46 | Parker Washington | ||||||
| WR47 | Jerry Jeudy | ||||||
| WR48 | Tim Patrick |
Win Your Championship | Start/Sit and Rankings | IDP | CheatChart | Full Slate
Check out our latest Three Round 1 QB Rookie Mock for upcoming rookie content! Our Draft Nerds are hard at work to make sure your rookie drafts go smoothly this offseason:
