Quarterback Start/Sit Advice | Week 16 of THE AUDIBLE

Win Your Week 16

• Week 16 Sunday Preview for Start/Sit | THE FULL SLATE
• Positional Matchups | Week 16 CheatChart | Find the Best Fantasy Performers
• Quarterback Start/Sit Advice | Week 16 of THE AUDIBLE
• Running Back Start/Sit Advice | Week 16 of THE CUTBACK
• Wide Receiver Start/Sit Advice | Week 16 of The SLANT PATTERN
• Tight End Start/Sit Advice | Week 16 of THE 12 FORMATION
• IDP Fantasy Start/Sit Advice | Week 16 of THE BLINDSIDE

Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with positional start/sit advice all season long. We will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings. Here is the Week 16 Quarterback Start/Sit from Senior NFL Nerd Mike Hicks.

One thing to keep in mind when making Week 16 Quarterback start/sit decisions; it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. Don’t take the players below out of (or put them into) your lineups unless the alternates are worth it.

NOTE: Rankings for Week 16 Quarterback Start/Sit are sourced from FantasyPros expert consensus expert rankings (ECR) and our terminology is for a 12-team PPR league. So, saying QB1 means top 12, or QB2 means top 24, etc.

The advanced metrics used in this article are courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite, use code NERDS for 25% off your own data suite subscription or All-in bundle.

Win Your Week 16 | QB | RB | WR | TE | IDP | CHEATCHART | FULL SLATE

START | Week 16 Quarterback Start/Sit

1QB | CALEB WILLIAMS I BEARS | V. DET

15.9 FPPG I ECR QB18 | NERDS QB11 I 75% CONFIDENCE

Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears have had a rough go at it in 2024. Even though Williams hasn’t been great, he has shown glimpses of why the Bears took him as the overall No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Through Week 15, Williams has 209.8 PaYPG, 17 TDs, and 5 INTs (FPDS). Williams has four weekly performances this season as a top-10 QB. Against the Detroit Lions in Week 13, Williams had 26.1 fantasy points.

Bear Down! Can Williams have a repeat performance against the Detroit Lions? The Lions have given up five 18-plus point performances, including Williams’ previously mentioned performance in Week 13 (FPDS). The Lions offense is a high-scoring machine, which usually puts the Lions defense in a pass-heavy situation. According to Data Nerd Brad Custer’s Positional CheatChart, the Lions are expected to allow 5% more than Williams season average. The Lions have had many injuries on defense and are now missing Carlton Davis and Alim McNeil as well. Williams is a must-start in Superflex leagues and I see him as a low-end QB1 in Week 16.

SUPERFLEX | DRAKE MAYE | PATRIOTS I V. BUF

16.3 FPPG I ECR QB22 | NERDS QB14 I 70% CONFIDENCE

Drake Maye has shown signs of why the New England Patriots drafted him 3rd overall in this year’s NFL draft. Maye has 189.8 PaYPG, 12 TD, and 9 INT (FPDS). Maye has a completion rate of 68.5%, 9th in the NFL. He is not going to be a QB that throws the ball down the field. He has the NFL’s 38th-ranked ADOT of 7.1. Over 56% of his passing yards are coming after the catch this season, which is 7th most in the NFL (FPDS). His upside is hard to ignore, even with the lack of weapons he has in New England.

The New England Patriots travel to play the Buffalo Bills in Week 16. The Bills defense is a neutral matchup for Drake Maye (CheatChart). They are expected to allow 2% more points than Maye’s season average. The Bills offense has been on fire as of late, but the defense is giving up points and yards in their high-scoring games. They are giving up 243.1 PaYPG, the 7th most in the NFL (FPDS). Maye will look to show up against a defense that has given up 20.8 and 41.1 fantasy points in their last 2 games. The Bills should win this game easily, which means Maye should have opportunities during garbage time. I recommend starting Maye in Superflex leagues, where he has the upside to be a top-15 QB in Week 16.

SIT | Week 16 Quarterback Start/Sit

1QB | BROCK PURDY | 49ERS I V. MIA

17.5 FPPG I ECR QB10 | NERDS QB17 I 55% CONFIDENCE

The San Francisco 49ers have had a shaky season, and that includes QB Brock Purdy. Purdy is 12th in the NFL, averaging 244.2 PaYPG (FPDS). Purdy has 15 TDs—in 2023, he already had 29 TDs at this point in the season. Purdy has scored 5 fantasy points or less in 2 of his last 3 games. He does have 6 20-plus fantasy point performances but consistency is the problem for Purdy this season. The 49ers are an injury-riddled team in 2024, and without a running attack, it is hard to trust Purdy week in and week out.

The 49ers travel to south beach in Week 16 to face off against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have improved throughout the season, allowing 219.4 PaYPG (9th) and 16 TDs (6th), according to FPDS. The Dolphins have only allowed 20-plus fantasy points to QBs twice this season. The matchup for Purdy is slightly disadvantageous according to the CheatChart. The Dolphins are expected to allow 3% less than Purdy’s season average. It feels like things are stacked against him to have a top-10 performance. I recommend sitting Purdy in 1QB leagues, even though he is a must-start in Superflex formats.

SUPERFLEX | RUSSELL WILSON | STEELERS I V. BAL

16.8 FPPG I ECR QB25 | NERDS QB31 I 20% CONFIDENCE

Russell Wilson is going into his 9th week as the starting QB for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Through his 8 games, he has averaged 249.0 PaYPG and has thrown 13 TDs (FPDS). Wilson has the NFL’s 7th-best Completion Percentage Over Expected at 4.7%. However, Wilson has only one performance over 16 fantasy points since Week 11. And to add insult to injury, the Steelers will be without George Pickens for another game in Week 16.

Pittsburgh has a big matchup in Week 16 against their arch rival, the Baltimore Ravens. According to the CheatChart, the Ravens are expected to give up 9% less than Wilson’s season average. On the season, the Ravens are giving up the NFL’s 2nd-most passing yards with 277.0 PaYPG. However, they have improved as of late. Since Week 11, they have given up 138 PaYPG and have only allowed 2 Passing TDs. With an Over/Under of 44.5, I expect this divisional matchup to be a low-scoring affair. Keep Wilson out of all your lineups, if possible.

Spotlight SIT | Week 16 Quarterback Start/Sit

MICHAEL PENIX JR. | FALCONS I V. NYG

0.8 FPPG I ECR QB23 | NERDS QB21 I 45% CONFIDENCE

Change is a coming in the dirty south for the Atlanta Falcons. Kirk Cousins has been benched for rookie Michael Penix Jr, even though the Falcons are one game behind the Tampa Buccaneers in the NFC South. This will be Penix Jr.’s first career start after having minimal time behind center so far in 2024. He has 38 yards on 3 completions in his young career. It will be interesting to see what Penix can do with a whole week of preparation.

Cue the lights. In Week 16, the Atlanta Falcons faceoff against the New York Giants. The Giants don’t have a good team—or defense—which makes this an intriguing matchup for Penix Jr.’s first NFL start. The Giants give up the NFL’s 3rd-highest completion rate of 70% (FPDS). On the flip side, the Giants have faced the NFL’s 3rd-fewest QB dropbacks. He won’t do much damage to his dynasty value with a poor performance. But, with a good one in Week 16, his dynasty value could rise heavily this offseason.

Our Draft Nerds are hard at work to make sure your rookie drafts go smoothly this offseason. Check out our most recent 3 Round Superflex Rookie Mock Draft:

Win Your Week 16 | QB | RB | WR | TE | IDP | CHEATCHART | FULL SLATE

Week 16 Quarterback Rankings

NOTE: The Week 16 Quarterback rankings are made prior to final injury designations. Players may be ranked higher or lower based on the perceived likelihood of them playing and/or their effectiveness if they do play.

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