The Script for Fantasy Success: Week 3- TNF

New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers

Details of the Script

• TNF – 8:15 pm @ Levi’s Stadium
• Weather – Clear night skies
• What Vegas is saying – Line (SF -10.0) & Over/Under 44.5

The Giants and 49ers haven’t played each other since 2020. The 49ers won easily 36-9 in New York. The Giants are looking up after a comeback win against the Cardinals. The Giants offense looked as bad as last Sunday, but they found some spark in the second half with Daniel Jones playing much better. We’ll have to see if they can put it all together for an entire game because they have a tough matchup. The 49ers came into LA, took care of business, and played well on offense and defense to beat down the Rams. This could be a one-side game if the Giants get off to another slow start, as the 49ers do not give up leads.

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones almost gave us a heart attack based on how he played in the first half of the Cardinals game. If you look above, you’ll see the split between Jones’s first and second half of the week two game. Unfortunately for Jones, they won’t be able to play the Cardinals in week three. The 49ers are an elite defense that can get to the quarterback. Through two games, the 49ers have six sacks and four interceptions. Jones’s career on Thursday night has been mediocre, averaging 260 total yards and a touchdown over four career games. If Barkley is out, this could force Jones to run the ball even more since he won’t have much time in the pocket to throw. In a tougher matchup, Jones is a risky high-end QB2 who may not have the same magic to rebound if things go wrong in week three. 

Brock Purdy had a very mediocre game in week two. He wasn’t asked to do too much, with only 25 pass attempts. I was hoping for more from a young Giants defense, but they gave up 25 fantasy points to Joshua Dobbs in week two. It seems like this 49ers team will work through CMC and possibly limit Purdy from having to throw a ton. Purdy has had eight of his 11 career starts with at least two passing touchdowns. I’ll go back to Purdy getting back to 230 passing yards and two touchdowns this week. Prudy should valued as a mid-range QB2. 

Running Backs

This one will hurt, especially as Saquon Barkley was ruled out for week three. The 49er’s run defense looked bad against Kyren Williams, but most was due to touchdowns and receiving work. The Giants will likely go with Matt Bredia and Gary Brightwell as their starters. In week 18 of 2022, these two were the starters in a game vs. the Eagles. Brightwell led the ground game and saw double-digit carries in that game.

Matt Breida saw eight targets and caught seven balls in that game. I think both should be looked at as borderline RB3 in this matchup. This 49ers defense is still outstanding, and the Giants offensive line is without Andrew Thomas, which is a big blow. You’d have to be hurting at running back to have either one in your lineup. It would be nice to have Eric Gray, the rookie, see some work, but we must see. 

Christian McCaffrey played 100% of the running back snaps in week two. CMC has moved from being an eight-plus target pass-catching back to a 15-plus carry running back. The Giants have allowed two straight running backs 15 plus fantasy points. As long as CMC stays healthy, he is an RB1 in this matchup. Elijah Mitchell is strictly a handcuff and probably should be mentioned here, but it’s an excellent time to buy low on or pick up on waivers. We all know CMC’s injury history. 

Pass Catchers

For the Giants, pass catchers Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Parris Campbell are the main three starters after two weeks. Jalin Hyatt caught a nice bomb but only averaged 30% of the offensive snaps. As for the starters, they all finished as WR4s in week two. Hodgins had the lone passing touchdown in week two. The 49ers’ defense has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to receivers but zero touchdowns. The 49ers have let up receivers over the middle of the field, especially slot receivers, over the first two games. It’s risky to start any one of these players in week two.

I’d consider Slayton and Campbell as week three deep sleepers. One of them can finish as a top 36 play this week. They would be tough to play in most leagues, but they could have sleeper appeal in deep formats. The 49ers have done well with outside receivers, so Hodgins will likely struggle in this matchup. Darren Waller is a TE1 for me in week three. The 49ers have done well against tight ends, but either of those other tight ends are main target leaders like Waller. Since Saqoun is out, Jones must focus on Waller even more in week three. 

The 49ers’ big three are still the only players worth mentioning in this matchup. The Giants have been solid against receivers, but I don’t think that means they can’t be beaten. Deebo Samuel looks back in rare form in week two. He had 100 total yards and scored a touchdown. Without any other 49ers running back getting work in the offense, Samuel looks like the backfield running back for this team. If that is the case, he is locked in as a high-end WR2. Samuel can average five carries a game, giving him a solid floor moving forward. 

Brandon Aiyuk returned to earth in week two with under five fantasy points. He still saw six targets, and he did get banged up in this game. Aiyuk will be a game-time decision for week three as he is dealing with an AC Joint injury. If Aiyuk plays, you must be cautious about his play in week three. I’d likely see Aiyuk more as a boom-or-bust WR3 in this matchup. If he sits, I don’t see any other receiver being able to step up and trust in week three. Juan Jennings would slide in as the WR2, but his fantasy value would be hard to trust. 

George Kittle has a good matchup against the Giants. Kittle has gotten off to a slow start, but he is seeing enough work that you must continue playing him. He is a boom-or-bust TE1 for week 3. He would be more trusted if Aiyuk were to miss this game. 

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