Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Details of the Script

• Sunday- 1:00 pm @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (ATL -1.0) & Over/Under 40.5

Identifying the Game Script 

It’s been four seasons since these teams have played each other. The last time, the Packers secured an easy win over the Falcons. 30-16. The Falcons picked up a big win in week one as they took down a young Panthers team. The Falcons lead with their rushing attack, and I’d expect a similar game plan in week two. Jordan Love came out swinging as the franchise starter and beat up the supposed-to-be-good Bears team. Both teams are looking to get off to a 2-0 start. I expect this game to be lower scoring as the Falcons and the Packers will run the ball plenty.

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love is looking to build off his excellent week one performance. The Falcons’ defense contained the rookie Bryce Young, keeping him under 160 passing yards. Love showed he is ready to play as the team’s franchise quarterback, even with a young roster. I’d love to see Love pick up his completion rate, as he was only 56% in week one. Love is playing indoors, so it should be good for him to continue to play well. If Christian Watson returns, it’s only going to help his case. Love should be considered a middle QB2 with the upside to be a high-end QB2 for your lineup in this matchup. His low rushing concerns me that he may not have QB1 upside.

Desmond Ridder did not play well in week one. He was held under 120 passing yards and showed no rushing ability for fantasy. The Packers were an excellent secondary last year with a few holes, but they held strong against Justin Fields, keeping him under 200 passing yards. If the game plan for the Falcons focuses on the run, then Ridder is a sit until proven otherwise. I can’t trust a quarterback who throws under 20 pass attempts per game. Ridder is a sit in all formats. 

Running Backs

Aaron Jones‘ hamstring will need to be monitored all week at practice. Jones pulled it late game in week one. He seems fine, but you never know with these hamstrings. In week one, the Packers appeared to split the workload in the backfield, which was expected. Aaron Jones played well, showing efficiency on the ground and in the air. Jones, as long as he is healthy, should be a middle-of-the-road RB2 for us in fantasy. You need to love his efficiency since he touched the ball 11 times and put up 120 total yards.

In week one, the Falcons front seven held Miles Sanders to 72 rushing yards. I still think it’s an underrated run defense. While Jones should be fine, AJ Dillon is a concern. I had him as a flex in week one, and he was disappointing. He was very ineffective on the ground, but there is hope he can bounce back. The Packers may want to give Dillion more work not to disturb Aaron Jones’ Hamstring injury. Dillon is likely a flex option at best, but the upside is not there for him.

The Falcon’s backfield was a big surprise in week one. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier both put up RB1 weeks in fantasy. Allgeier seeing more carries and similar snaps was a surprise. It could have been the coaching staff easing the rookie into his role for the season. Don’t forget that Cordarrelle Patterson didn’t play. Does he have a role? In the last two years, the Packers have been bottom ten vs. fantasy running backs. Bijan Robinson should continue to see more work, giving him another RB1 week. Tyler Allgeier is more challenging because we don’t know if he will be a thing. It’s a favorable matchup for a team that wants to run the ball a ton, so Allgeier is a flex option in week two. Hopefully, if Patterson comes back, he won’t ruin this duo.

Pass Catchers

The Packers receivers are still a mystery as a whole. We didn’t see Christian Watson on Sunday, and he hopes to play in week two. If he does, I’d likely see him as a high-end WR3 at best coming off an injury. The Falcons didn’t give up much in the air, and I think their defense is better than most folks think. In limited snaps, Romeo Doubs saw five targets and caught two touchdowns. He is a low-end WR 3 with or without Watson in this matchup. A couple of rookies lead in snaps with Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed. Even with Watson out, neither one stepped up in production in week one. They should not be in any starting lineups. Luke Musgrave dominated the tight-end room in week one and looked very good. The Falcons have been terrible against TEs since last year, and Musgrave has sleeper appeal in week two. He could finish as a TE1 in week two.

Only Drake London and Kyle Pitts need to be discussed for the Falcons’ pass catchers. Kyle Pitts should be a low-end TE 1 in this matchup. He was the only tight end running routes, but he needs to see more targets. His talent bumps him up higher than he should be. In week one, Drake London gave us a goose egg with just one target. The issue with him is that he is on a run-first offense, but don’t give up yet on London. It was one game. Let’s see how week two goes first. London should be a WR 3 in this matchup.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills

Details of the Script

• Sunday- 1:00 pm @ Highmark Stadium
  • Weather – Cloudy w/ a small chance of rain
• What Vegas is saying – Line (BUF -8.5) & Over/Under 47

Identifying the Game Script 

It’s been three seasons since the Raiders and Bills faced off against each other. The Bills won 30-23 the last time they played. The Raiders are coming off a surprising win against the Broncos and are looking to do it again. The Raiders offense looked decent, and the defense kept that Sean Payton offense in check. The Bills lose a stunner in New York to a Zach Wilson-lead Jets team. The defense held strong all game, making it almost impossible for the Jets to move the ball in the air. The offense was terrible, with four turnovers, and the run defense got carved up by Breece Hall. This game will be an essential battle for both sides.

Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo played himself a nice week one performance. He finished as QB1 against the Broncos. Jimmy G will have a tougher matchup as the Bills have an elite defense, especially with fantasy quarterbacks. They have been in the top 10 over the last two seasons. If Jimmy G loses Jakobi Meyers, things will be more challenging for him. Jimmy G is an average quarterback, but I can’t expect he will give great performances each week. He could get over 200 yards and likely one touchdown. He should be considered a low-end QB2 for fantasy this week. 

Josh Allen played terribly in week one. Again, I said that Josh Allen doesn’t do well vs. the Jets. This matchup against the Raiders is much easier. The Raiders secondary has holes and was a bottom-five defense in 2022. Josh Allen should be able to rebound in a favorable matchup. Josh Allen is a QB1 in week two. 

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs is a dominant running back who controlled almost all the snaps in the Raiders backfield. The Bills were a top-10 run defense last year, but in week one, they were shredded for big run plays from Breece Hall. Josh Jacobs didn’t do well in week one but saw 19 carries, a prime opportunity. Jacobs should be back as an RB1 in week two. 

The Bills running backs have a good matchup against the Raiders this week. The Raiders’ defense allowed tons of receptions to the Broncos’ back and decent yardage last week. They were a bottom-ten run defense in 2022. James Cook should be a lock for a high-end RB2 week. He handled the early down and third down work in the offense. Cook looked terrific running the ball out of the backfield. I’d like to see more, and hopefully, we get that, as he wasn’t in for goalline and two-minute drills. Damien Harris is coming off an injury, so his usage wasn’t there in week one. He should be a sit for fantasy until he starts seeing more snaps. Latavius Murray was the backup in week one and handled the two-minute drill, which is interesting. Murray is a veteran, and the Bills seem to trust him in those situations. That is something to monitor in this Bills backfield, but Cook is the only one I’m starting.

Pass Catchers

For the Raiders, it was clear that Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers were the starters by a wide margin. They have 19 targets between the two of them. The Bills are a solid team against fantasy receivers with Tre’Davious White in the lineup. Davante Adams should continue to be a borderline WR1 player in fantasy, especially if Meyers is to miss time. Jakobi Meyers is recovering from a concussion that he must pass to be able to play in week two. If he does play, he is a WR3 that could have upside if he continues to see significant target shares. Hunter Renfrow was a big disappointment, with just 14 snaps and no targets. For now, you don’t want anything to do with Raiders tight ends. They used a two-person rotation and rarely used 12 personnel in week one. 

For the Buffalo Bills, it is a solid overall matchup. The Raiders’ secondary is average at best. Stefon Diggs showed that even in a tough matchup, he can be elite and should be WR1 in week two. Gabe Davis is a tough one but a sleeper in week two. Davis never played well against the Jets in his career, so I expected a lousy game. I’d like to see Davis see a few more targets than four. Davis is a boom-or-bust WR3 in week two. The Bills played a lot of 12 personnel, so Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox will be on the field plenty. They almost split snaps, routes run, and tied on targets. I wouldn’t want to start either until one overtakes the starting role. The two of them splitting makes them TE2s for the time being.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Details of the Script

• Sunday- 1:00 pm @ Paycor Stadium
• Weather – Partly Cloudly – a potential storm in the afternoon
• What Vegas is saying – Line (CIN -3.0) & Over/Under 46.5

Identifying the Game Script 

Our first division matchup of the weekend is between the Ravens and Bengals. Over the last five games, these teams have combined for 48 total points. The Bengals have won four of the previous five games vs. the Ravens. The winning team averages about 30 points per game, while the loser averages 18. The Bengals were humiliated in week one against the Browns and are looking to get back on track in week two. The Ravens beat down an easy opponent against the Texans, but the offense left a little to be desired for us in fantasy. Now that JK Dobbins is gone for the year, perhaps we’ll see more of that passing attack.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson laid a goose egg in week one, but his team was winning big, so he didn’t need to do much. Jackson only played the Bengals twice over the last two years and averaged 215 passing yards and one passing touchdown. While those numbers aren’t impressive, he averaged 73 rushing yards over both games. The Bengals’ defense didn’t do well in week one, but they were a top-four team against fantasy quarterbacks last year. We still aren’t sure what this new-look passing offense is supposed to be, but it wasn’t in week one, as Jackson only had 22 passing attempts. Jackson is a mid-range QB1 due to his rushing ability. 

Joe Burrow is another AFC North quarterback who did poorly in week one. Burrow has some rust, and it clearly showed in week one. He has a terrible 45% completion rate against the Browns. Joe Burrow’s career against the Ravens has been an average of 300 passing yards and two touchdowns per game over five games. Surprisingly, Joe Burrow was much better on the road than at home, so that is happening to monitor. Ravens are an average secondary, so Burrow can succeed, but it’s tough to trust after what we just saw from him. He is talented and should hopefully bounce back, and he is likely to be a low-end QB1 for week two. 

Running Backs

The new-look Ravens backfield will no longer have JK Dobbins, as he is out for the season now. That leaves Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, and you can also add Melvin Gordon. In week one, Hill saw more snaps, more routes run, and had the same number of carries as Gus Edwards. It’s likely to be somewhat of a committee approach moving forward. The Bengals could be run on, as Nick Chubb ran for 100 yards in week one. Last year, they were a tough team, but a few adjustments could fix that. Gus Edwards should be looked at as a high-end RB3 with limited upside. Edwards will likely only see early down work with a few goal-line carries. He has 18 career receptions, so I don’t think he’ll see that role. Justice Hill will likely be the third-down back for the offense and sometimes takes some red zone work away from Edwards. Hill is probably a lower-end RB3 at best. Don’t count Melvin Gordon out, but we can’t determine his current role.

Joe Mixon had a decent week one with 73 yards with three receptions. He has a tough matchup in week two. The Ravens have been a top-10 run defense for the last two years. Joe Mixon hasn’t played that well against the Ravens in his career. He has averaged 65 total yards and just four rushing touchdowns. In week one, Mixon didn’t see much change in his playing with the departure of Smaje Perine. Mixon handled early down work but still minimal on third down plays. Mixon is likely a low-end RB2 in a tough matchup, especially if this offense can’t get it together in week two. Trayveon Williams and Chirs Evans handled the third down work but are neither start-worthy. 

Pass Catchers

For the Ravens receivers, Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. are the two starting receivers. They played in most situations, especially in two-receiver sets. They have a tough matchup with the Bengals, who were a pretty good secondary last year. Zay Flowers led these pass catchers with nine receptions for 78 yards. Granted, Mark Andrews did not play, and we aren’t sure if he will in week two. If there is no Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers is a borderline WR 2, and if he does play, Flowers is more of a WR3. Odell Beckham is, at best, a WR4, as I think we have not seen his best, but it may not come in this game. Rashod Bateman, seeing only half the snaps, tells me that the Ravens were ahead and didn’t need three receivers sets, or he will be a part-time player, and his fantasy value will be shit. Bateman should sit until we see his play go up. Mark Andrews will be a TE1 if he returns in week two. If Andrews is out, Isaiah Likely is a sleeper in week two as a high-end TE2. 

You must return to the well for the Bengals receivers and continue drinking the water. Ja’Marr Chase should bounce back to be WR1 and have a better week in week two. Tee Higgins again gave us another fat zero, but he also should return to a WR2 status. He had eight targets, so there are opportunities that you should start him again. The Texans’ two outside receivers played well against the Raven’s secondary. Tyler Boyd is hard to trust with his targets. Irv Smith saw five targets, which is excellent, but it’s a tough matchup for the tight end. Ravens have been top 10 against tight ends. Smith isn’t trustworthy yet for starting lineups. 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

Details of the Script

• Sunday- 1:00 pm @ Ford Field
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (DET -4.5) & Over/Under 47

Identifying the Game Script 

This matchup with the Seahawks and Lions looks to be a high-scoring game in Detroit. The Lions have lost to Seattle in the last five games over the last eight years. The previous two times were in 2022, as Seattle averaged 49 points in both games against the Lions. The Lions are coming off a big win on opening night against the Chiefs. They have had ten days of rest and are well-prepared for this matchup. On the other hand, Seattle didn’t show up in week one and put up a stinker on offense. Seattle is looking to rebound after looking like a fantasy elite unit for our lineups.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith was a big disappointment in week one. He had a favorable matchup again with that Rams secondary but produced only 112 passing yards. I’m hoping it was him getting the offseason rust off, as Smith has a prime opportunity to succeed. There aren’t many quarterbacks with three elite receivers and two stud running backs. Smith is getting another favorable matchup, as the Lions were the worst team in the league against fantasy quarterbacks last year. Patrick Mahomes had a top-eight finish in week one. I think Smith should be able to bounce back and be a borderline QB1 in a good matchup for week two. 

Jared Goff had a decent week one performance. The run game took over late, so the passing wasn’t necessary for the Lions. Seattle is a middle-of-the-road team against fantasy quarterbacks and is dealing with some injuries in the secondary. I like Goff’s weapons, and I could see this game turning into a potential shootout for fantasy. Goff should be considered a high-end QB2, and you could start in a QB1 league. 

Running Backs

The Lions have a good running back problem, as David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs looked good on TNF last week. As predicted, the Lions would slowly bring on the young rookie to get his footing at the NFL level. Montgomery handled most of the work late in that first game. While long-term, Gibbs should take over at some point since there was a clear difference in talent between the two running backs. Seattle has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to running back over the last two seasons.

The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league and should run well. For now, David Montgomery should have the early downs work and meaningful snaps. He should be looked at as an RB2 in week two. Jahmyr Gibbs saw limited work but looked terrific in those opportunities. It will be interesting to see how much work he gets moving forward. He is a low-end RB2 for fantasy due to limited usage, but he has a significant upside for week two. 

Ken Walker looks like the lead running back for the Seahawks in this backfield. The matchup is average for these Seattle running backs. As I said, Walker is the leading early down back that would handle any goalline runs when necessary. Seeing five targets to Walker was nice, but only three yards is not encouraging for fantasy. Walker should be a low-end RB2 because the Seahawks also use other backs on certain plays. Zach Charbonnet is mostly a nonfactor, as he is the backup for the early down, but he will see more as time passes. DeeJay Dallas was the primary receiving back for the team. He is not one to consider until someone gets hurt. Walker is the one you want to start for the time being as RB2 or flex play. 

Pass Catchers

For the Lions pass catchers, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands out from the rest. He was terrific in week one and couldn’t be stopped in the offense. The Seahawks had no answer for slot receivers in week one, so expect St. Brown to do well. He should be a WR1 in week two. Josh Reynolds stepped in as the WR2 for the Lions with four receptions for 80 yards. Reynolds has always been underrated in his time in Detroit. He should be a Flex/Borderline WR3 value in week two. Marvin Jones looks old and made critical errors in week one; I don’t want anything to do with him. Sam LaPorta was a TE1 in week one, and I said he would be months ago! LaPorta seems like a safe blanket to Jared Goff. He should be a borderline TE1 in week two, as Seattle was the worst team against tight ends last year. 

For the Seattle pass catchers, they ran through DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as they played the most snaps and had the most route runs. The Lions were a terrible team against receivers last year, so there is hope for fantasy they are still like that. I’m not taking the week one game against the Chief’s shitty receivers to heart. DK Metcalf is a firm WR2 and the alpha receiver in the offense. Tyler Lockett is dealing with a possible concussion, so he could miss this game. If he does play, he should be considered a borderline WR2 who should hopefully bounce back in this matchup.

Jaxson Smith-Njigba did not flash in week one, but most of the Seahawks offense didn’t. If Lockett were to miss this game, JSN could have borderline WR 2 in this matchup. If Lockett does play, he is like a WR 4 with upside. The tight end position was a complete three-person committee with Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and Will Dissly. It is tough to trust any of them, even in a favorable matchup. 

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans

Details of the Script

• Sunday- 1:00 pm @ Nissan Stadium
• Weather – Sunshine w/ some clouds
• What Vegas is saying – Line (LAC -3.0) & Over/Under 45

Identifying the Game Script 

In the previous seven matchups, whoever has been the home team has won. We also know the Chargers have always done poorly heading out east. The Chargers are coming off a shootout loss to the Dolphins and are looking to get back on track if their defense can improve. For the Titans, it’s the opposite; they lose a close game against the Raiders by one point. Their defense stood strong, but their offense looked terrible with Ryan Tannehill as its quarterback. We’ll have to see who can make the quick adjustment heading into week two.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert had a solid week one as he completed 70% of his passes, threw for 200 yards, and had two touchdowns. He is playing a Titans team that allowed big yardage but only one score. The Titans last year vs. Herbert did similar as he had 300 yards but only scored one touchdown. I was disappointed that this Kellen Moore offense was more aggressive, as everything ran through the running backs. Herbert should be a low-end QB1 in this matchup. Hopefully, they can find ways to push the ball downfield more.

Ryan Tannehill looked horrible in week one, throwing under 200 yards and three picks. They play a Chargers team that allowed almost 500 yards to the Dolphins’ pass attack. The Titans are a run-first team, but Tannehill does have an easier matchup than in week one. Tannehill should be able to bounce to decent numbers and finish as a low-end QB2 in a favorable matchup. Superflex leagues are the only place Tannehill should be starting as a sleeper. 

Running Backs

The Chargers running backs were amazing in week one, as they have two rushers in the top five in rushing yards in the league. Austin Ekeler dominated on the ground with 120 yards, and Joshua Kelley with 91 yards. The Titans’ run defense is a different story. They have been top-three against the run over the last two years. They held Jamaal Williams to a 2.5 YPC on 18 attempts in week one.

Austin Ekeler is dealing with an ankle injury that could put his status for week two in the air. If Ekeler plays, he should still be an RB1. It may not come on the ground, but back in the passing game. It was concerning that Eekler has gone eight straight games with less than six targets. The Titans were a team last year that allowed the sixth most receptions to backs. So, hopefully, Ekeler is healthy enough to play and should be an RB1 still, even in a tough match. Joshua Kelley likely isn’t starting with Ekeler on the field. If Ekeler were to miss, Kelley would get a gigh-end RB3 appeal. 

Many were surprised that Tyjae Spears outsnapped Derrick Henry in week one. The Titans are trying to keep Henry good for the whole year. If Spears can pass block, it will keep Henry from coming on the field and only playing when he needs to. The Chargers were a team that allowed the fifth most fantasy points to running backs in 2022. The Dolphins stopped running the ball against the Chargers, so I don’t think we got the full picture of their run defense in week one. The Titans will use Derrick Henry early down and find holes for him to run. He is a low-end RB1 this week, even with Spears’ involvement. Tyjae Spears took on early runs but was primarily in for third-down snaps and two-minute drill plays. Henry had 17 touches, and Spears had 4, so he has work to do to see more opportunities for touches. He isn’t someone I’m starting, but I’ll monitor his usage this week. 

Pass Catchers

The Chargers receivers have a fantastic matchup in week two. The Titans have been the worst team in the league against fantasy receivers, allowing big production. Keenan Allen looked to be the WR1 in the offense as he saw nine targets. Allen should be a high-end WR2 in his matchup. Mike Williams got banged in week one, where he missed most of the second quarter. In a good matchup, you must take the risk with Mike Williams as a boom or bust WR 2 in fantasy. Joshua Palmer is the third receiver but only saw one target in the offense. He doesn’t show much confidence to play him. Quentin Johnston could see more work as the season goes on, but he saw more targets than Palmer. Johnston’s deep-threat speed is fascinating in week two if he plays a similar role that the Saints Rashid Shaheed did against the Titans secondary last week. He is a deep sleeper in week two. 

The tight end also has a favorable matchup, but two Chargers tight ends are fighting for snaps. Gerald Everett and Donald Parham split much of the passing-down work in the offense. I’m looking to see Everett bounce back in this offensive scheme. Everett could be a high-end TE2 this time and produce for us in fantasy, but his upside is limited with Parham. 

The Titans receiver has a great matchup as well. The Chargers allowed the third most fantasy points to receivers. Outside of DeAndre Hopkins, it’s hard to trust anyone. Hopkins had 12 targets and hopes to be better with a weaker matchup. He is likely a low-end WR 2 in this matchup. I’m not entertaining Nick Westbrooke-lkhine even though he had seven targets for 58 yards. Treylon Burks played the most snaps but only saw three targets. I still have faith that the young receiver will find his groove. He is too risky to flex, but there is a potential for a big game. Chig Okonkwo is a risky, high-end TE2 in this matchup. The Chargers allowed Durham Smythe to see three catches for 44 yards. Okonkwo was held catchless in week one, as it was a tough matchup. The Chargers are beatable, but Chig must be efficient with his opportunity since he only saw two targets in week one. 

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Bucs

Details of the Script

• Sunday- 1:00 pm @ Raymond James Stadium
• Weather – Possible Thunderstorms with Rain in the AM
• What Vegas is saying – Line (TB -2.5) & Over/Under 41

Identifying the Game Script 

The Bears and Bucs haven’t played each other in a few years, but last time, the Bucs dominated the Bears 38 to 3. In four of the previous five games, the winner of the game has won by 15 points at least. The Bears will look to bounce back as they fell behind the Packers and never made it a competitive game. They will look to get the passing game on track, as Justin Fields looked more like he did in early 2022. The Bucs got a surprise win against the Vikings in week one. The NFC South is wide open, so they are trying to compete even without a hall-of-frame quarterback.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields underperformed the expectations we had for him heading into 2023. He finished as a QB2 and did not impress as a passer overall. Fields did run 69 yards in the game, which we love for fantasy. He plays the Bucs, which allowed Kirk Cousins to throw over 300 yards, and they were a decent team last year against fantasy quarterbacks. Fields need to get back on track, and the coaching staff needs to help put this offense in the correct position. On the road last year, Fields averaged less than a touchdown per game. While we still don’t know if Fields will take that next level, he can be a low-end QB1 due to his rushing. He should be considered a borderline QB1 with upside if he is rushing for significant gains. The rain could help force Fields to run the ball more, so that’s a wait-and-see.

Baker Mayfield was a pleasant surprise in week one, especially leading the Bucs to a win over the Vikings. He played it safe and didn’t cause any turnovers in the game. The Bears allowed Jordan Love’s first start to have a frenzy in week one with three passing touchdowns. The Bears weren’t a good team last year vs. fantasy quarterback, and it seems that way off the bat in 2023. Mayfield has the weapons to be productive in fantasy. He should be considered a QB2 in superflex leagues for week two. 

Running Backs

As we feared, the Bears backfield is a full-on committee right now. Khalil Herbert was supposed to lead the way, but after the first drive, it was a free-for-all. He was inefficient on the ground, but he did see five targets. D’onta Foreman also saw work, especially splitting the goalline work, but his day was forgettable. Roschon Johnson’s work came in the second half with five carries and seven targets with the touchdown. It could be a sign of things to come to bring in Johnson to help jolt the offense, as it was behind in last week’s game. The Bucs did a solid job keeping the Vikings’ run game to a minimum with less than 50 yards. I wouldn’t recommend starting any Bears running back in week two if you can. Herbert is the flooring play to get you eight points, while Johnson is the upside play that could boom or bust. Eventually, I expect Johnson to take over this season. 

It was clear that this was Rachaad White’s backfield, even with Sean Tucker and Chase Edmonds having work. White handled every running back situation in week one. The Bears are a favorable matchup as they have been in the bottom three against fantasy running backs the last two seasons. I think White should be more efficient compared to what he showed us in week one. White should be looked at as an RB2 in this matchup. Sean Tucker could seem to work if White doesn’t perform, but we’ll need to see if he’s on the field before making any moves like that.

Pass Catchers

For the Bears pass catchers, it seems like there is a big four with DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, and Cole Kmet. The Bucs gave up a monster game to Justin Jefferson and allowed slot receiver Jordan Addison to have a solid day. DJ Moore seeing two targets in week one was a big shocker since he was targeted early in preseason. I’m still expecting Moore to turn it around in week two. He should be considered WR2, and I hope he sees the targets. Darnell Mooney was the most effective receiver in the Bears offense. Mooney was someone I liked a lot last year, and I thought he could thrive as a WR2 of the team. In week one, that happened for him. In a good matchup, he is a borderline WR3/risky flex option for week two. Chase Claypool was third in snaps but had one target. He is on my bench for the foreseeable future. Cole Kmet has a solid matchup vs. the Bus. The Bucs have been in the bottom ten against fantasy tight ends for two years. He had seven targets, and it seems his target share isn’t going away. He is low-end TE 1 in week two. 

The Buc’s receivers had a solid week one performance against the Vikings. This Bears team is beatable in the secondary, and they just lost Kyler Gordon to the IR. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the starters, as they played almost all the snaps in week one. Chris Godwin would look at the safe WR3 play that should see PPR value. Mike Evans is more of that boom-or-bust WR3 play. Evans had a good week one, but we know Evans can be inconsistent in fantasy lineups. As I predicted, Trey Palmer could have a good week one and, thankfully, caught a touchdown. He only has three targets in the game, so it is not enough to trust him every week. Cade Otton was the lead tight end for the Bucs but didn’t do much with it. The Bears are pretty good against tight ends, so he isn’t someone I’m looking to start.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Details of the Script

• Sunday- 1:00 pm @ EverBank Stadium
• Weather – Thunderstorm – Good Chance for rain.
• What Vegas is saying – Line (KC -3.5) & Over/Under 51

Identifying the Game Script 

Two Superbowl-contending teams go head-to-head in week two. The last time the Chiefs and Jaguars played each other came during the divisional round of the playoffs last year. The Chiefs are looking to avoid a 0-2 start, as Patrick Mahomes has never started like that. They are hopeful this offense can be back at full health, with Kelce hopefully returning. The Jaguars had a nice win against the Colts, as their offense looks in sync. We could experience a shootout game here in Jacksonville for week two. Keep an eye on the weather. It’s looking like rain in Jacksonville on Sunday. That could play a significant role in how their fantasy production goes.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes is a locked and loaded QB1. If Travis Kelce returns, it’s even more to him being a top 3 in week two. 

Trevor Lawrence is in a small category of quarterback that you should trust in most situations. The Chiefs did not do well against a great quarterback last year. Lawrence has the weapons to put up another QB1 week.

Running Backs

Isiash Pacheco, while he didn’t start the game, continued to have his role as the early down back in week one. His value goes up in situations where the Chiefs are ahead. I’m not buying that the Jaguars run defense is an elite unit just yet. He is a borderline RB2 in a solid situation vs. the Jaguars. I don’t think we saw the value of the Jaguars’ run defense against the Colts. Pacheco seeing four targets and catching all four is encouraging to his value. McKinnon handled the offense’s third down and two-minute drill role, but his snaps went down from last year. He only saw two targets, which is not encouraging to his value. He is a RB4 at best in week two. Clyde Edwards Helaire is a wild card that I’m not starting.

We saw Travis Etienne take the lead for the Jaguars in this backfield. The Chiefs didn’t seem up to the task in week one against running backs, as David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs ran well. The addition of Chirs Jones should help that cause, but they were in the middle of the pack in 2022. Etienne should continue to command most of the work in the offense. He showed a healthy workload in the offense and saw the targets to match. While I don’t think his 80/20 split with Tank Bigsby will be that high again, he should remain an RB2 in fantasy. Tank Bigsby had some highs and lows in week one. He hasn’t done enough to make this a split backfield yet. He isn’t worth starting in lineups.

Pass Catchers

For the Chiefs pass catchers, I only feel confident in starting Travis Kelce if he plays. There are reports he could miss another game. The Jaguars weren’t great against fantasy tight ends, so if Kelce isn’t starting, Noah Gray would again have some sleeper appeal. He didn’t do great in week one but still has that sleeper appeal in week two.

It’s challenging to know which Chiefs receivers to play. The starters for the Chiefs were Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore. Moore was supposed to step up without Kelce, but it didn’t go his way. He would be a risky flex option in week two. He has potential, but the lack of targets is a concern. Kadarius Toney was the worst-graded receiver last week but had five targets and three in the red zone. Until Toney can prove it, he is a sit for me. Rashee Rice found success with a touchdown but only played half the snaps. He is someone to keep your eyes on, but he’s not ready to start in lineups yet. 

For the Jaguars, the number one receiver is now Calvin Ridley. He exploded for 100 yards and a touchdown and seemed to have a great connection with Lawrence. The Chiefs have been in the bottom 10 in stopping fantasy receivers the last few seasons. He should be a low-end WR1 in his matchup. 

Christian Kirk looks to have taken a step back in the lineup as he was third in snaps and routes run. He also only saw two targets. Kirk seems to be only a slot receiver, as he played all the snaps but one in 11 personnel. In 12 personnel, he only played 6 of the 21 snaps, and none in 13 or 22 personnel. Kirk drops down to a flex option in fantasy for this matchup. Let’s hope it will not continue that way, but his production is a big concern. Kirk’s talent is good enough to allow him to be a flex or WR3 for fantasy. Zay Jones saw six targets in week one. He is moving up the board as a WR4 that could start as a flex if you are desperate for a matchup since it is a good one against the Chiefs. Evan Engram saw five targets and should be suitable for fantasy as a low-end TE1. The Chiefs allowed tight ends to do well in 2022. 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

Details of the Script

• Sunday- 1:00 pm @ NRG Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (IND -1.0) & Over/Under 40

Identifying the Game Script 

It’s the battle of Anthony Richardson and CJ Stroud’s first time in a divisional game. Over the last five games, these teams have averaged 43 total points. Last year, they tied a game, and in the second game, the Texans won a nail-biter 31 to 30 in Indy. The Texans are 1-4-1 in the last six games against the Colts. The Colts looked solid but didn’t have the game plan to beat a good Jaguars team. Richardson will look to continue his progression in week two. The Texans hope to do the same with CJ Stroud as they try to be more competitive in a game compared to week one.

Quarterbacks

Anthony Richardson was a solid play in week one. He didn’t just rely on his legs but threw the ball well enough to trust his play. I hope we see more runs, but he has players to help make plays for him. The Texans were an excellent team vs. fantasy quarterbacks last year and did well against Lamar Jackson in week one. Richardson is still a rookie and will make some mistakes in games. The Texans have a very good secondary, making it more challenging for Richardson. Richardson is a risky start in 1QB leagues but should be a high-end QB2 for week two. He does have some upside if he can see more rushing work. 

CJ Stroud was okay in his first start but couldn’t handle the pressure. He was sacked five times and lost the ball once. Stroud doesn’t have the elite talent surrounding him in the Texans’ offense. The Colts were not very good against fantasy quarterbacks last year, allowing Trevor Lawrence to have a QB1 week in fantasy. Stroud isn’t on the same level as Lawrence, but the matchup is undoubtedly easier. If the Texans can give him more time, that would help Stroud get more time to throw. He is a borderline QB2 starter in superflex leagues. The matchup is good, but the trust level is low, especially since he isn’t very mobile.

Running Backs

Deon Jackson handled the majority of the running back work in week one. He had the early downs and led the third-down work as well. Unfortunately, he had a terrible week one performance against the Jaguars, averaging just 1.1 YPC. He did see six targets, which can be encouraging in PPR leagues. Evan Hull got hurt in this game and was placed on IR. 

Zack Moss missed week one as he was recovering from his broken arm but is scheduled to return in week two. If Moss doesn’t play, I expect Jackson to handle the entire workload for the Colts again. Jackson would end up as a high-end RB3 since the matchup with the Texans is favorable. Keep your eyes on Jake Funk as he splits time in the fourth quarter with Jackson. The Texans were the worst in 2022 vs. fantasy running backs, allowing two Ravens’ backs to see 12 plus fantasy points. If Moss does play, it is likely a split backfield that makes both, at best, high-end RB3s for week two. 

The Texans’ backfield was a mess in week one. While Peirce handled the early work, he wasn’t very effective and only played on two third-down plays. While we thought Devin Singletary would be the RB2, he played the third most snaps among the running backs. Mike Boone was the third down back and the two-minute drill back over Dameon Pierce. The Colts have been a bottom-10 run defense the last two seasons, allowing the Jaguars to run well on them. Dameon Pierce should continue to be the primary back, especially early down. He is a low-end RB2 that is limited with minimal passing value. Mike Boone or Devin Singletary shouldn’t be considered playable assets in week two, even with their surprising usage.

Pass Catchers

For the Colts pass catchers, the only one I’m trusting as a flex option is Michael Pittman Jr. I was nervous about his usage with Richardson, but he had 11 targets in week one. That is the usage I want to trust in Pittman to give WR3 value. The Texans have a strong secondary, so Pittman as a WR3 makes a lot of sense for week two. Alec Pierce was a disappointment, and the Texans were good at covering downfield. He should be a sit until he can see more than three targets in a game. I’m interested to see Josh Downs’ usage in week two since he had seven targets in week one. I don’t trust him as a flex option yet, but let’s see how he does in week two. The tight-end crew was a full-blown committee in terms of snaps. Kylen Granon was four for 39 yards in week one, but the Texans shut down any production from the tight end position in week one. He isn’t likely someone who is on starting radars. 

The Texan’s receivers have a favorable matchup in week two. The Colts’ secondary couldn’t stop anyone on the outside. I like Bob Woods in this matchup on the outside. He had ten targets in week one. He is the confirmed WRe for the team. Woods is WR3/flex value for week two in a good matchup. Nico Collins was impressive, but he left in favor of Tank Dell in 11 personnel too often. Collins is likely a boom or bust-flex option, but it was encouraging that he had 11 targets in week one, the most in his career. Tank Dell saw some work in week one, and he’s someone to monitor as the season progresses, especially with Noah Brown on the IR now. Dalton Schultz was a big disappointment in week one with just four yards, but he played most of the passing plays. Schultz should be able to bounce in week two in a decent matchup. He is still a borderline TE1 in this matchup. 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Details of the Script

• Sunday- 4:05 pm @ SoFI Stadium
• Weather – Partly Cloudy
• What Vegas is saying – Line (SF -7.5) & Over/Under 44.5

Identifying the Game Script 

We have another division game as the 49ers travel to the Rams. Both teams are coming off good week-one wins. Over the last five games, these teams have averaged 41.4 total points. Only three times has a team scored over 25 points in a match between these two. The 49ers look like Super Bowl contenders, as the defense was elite, and the offense led by Brock Purdy looked terrific. The 49ers are going to be a fantasy gold mine in 2023. The Rams didn’t have Cooper Kupp, but they played well on the offense. Matthew Stafford looks healthy as he tries to lead this new-look Rams.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford looks healthy, as he had a decent week one game against a supposedly tough Seahawks secondary. He had 300 yards but didn’t get a chance to throw a touchdown. Stafford seems to have found his Cooper Kupp replacement that made us like Stafford enough as a QB2 in fantasy. When Stafford was healthy in 2021, he averaged 240 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions per game against the 49ers. The 49ers just beat up the Steelers, and honestly, most of Pickett’s yardage came late in the game in garbage time. Stafford has a tough matchup, as this 49ers front seven is a nightmare for quarterbacks. Stafford should be considered a low-end QB2 in Superflex options that should get you around 17 fantasy points in week two. 

Brock Purdy hasn’t had a chance to play the Rams defense yet. Purdy continued his 2022 regular season form with 220 yards and two touchdowns. Purdy, at times, can show his mobility, which gets you an additional two to three points. The Rams held down last year’s breakout Geno Smith, but this 49ers team is too well-coached to allow bad play against this Rams team. Purdy has the weapon and looks like a seasoned pro on the field. They made the right call at quarterback. Purdy should be a high-end QB2 against the Rams. This could be lower scoring, so Purdy may not get the yardage to reach QB1 as he did in week one.  

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey was a beast on the ground, rushing for over 100 yards on 22 attempts. It was concerning that he only had five targets in the game but was running wild. The Rams were okay against the run, but Ken Walker still managed 60 yards on them. CMC is a locked and loaded top-five fantasy running back for week two. Elijah Mitchell is a nonfactor outside of being a handcuff. 

I’m talking about the Rams backfield much differently than in week one. Cam Akers was out-snapped, carried, and touched by Kyren Williams. As I mentioned in week one, he was someone to keep your eyes out for. This matchup against the 49ers is not easy since they have been a top-three run defense unit the last two seasons. They shut down the Steelers running game in week one. Is Kyren Williams the back to owe now? I still think it’s too soon to judge off one game. Remember, Darnell Henderson was the primary back in week one last year, and Akers had one carry. Cam Akers falls to a borderline RB3 in this matchup. It’s one thing to lose his touches, but it’s a tough matchup, and he ran a 1.2 YPC. Based on his role in the offense, Kyren Willians is a high-end RB3. It’s great if he sees the early down work, but the passing work and red zone looks are favorable to him. He should be able to see the passing work to give him a decent day vs. a tough 49ers team. Based on what Vegas is saying, the Rams will likely be behind in his matchup, and the Rams combined for 100 total rushing yards in two games last year. 

Pass Catchers

The 49ers pass catchers are the big three: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. The Rams did an excellent job for a supposedly bad secondary against the big three in Seattle. None of the Seattle receivers produced over 50 receiving yards. Deebo Samuel had a decent game in week one and played the most snaps among receivers. Samuel has averaged 97 yards in the last three games against the Ram’s secondary and scored in two. He is the 1B in the offense now and hasn’t done great with Brock Purdy. Samuel is more of a borderline WR 2 in this matchup. 

Brandon Aiyuk, I believe in the 1A on the offense now. Aiyuk and Purdy have a strong connection with each other, and we saw it on full display in week one. The Rams can be beaten downfield, and Aiyuk should be able to take full advantage of that. He is a high-end WR2 moving forward but could eventually get to that WR1 area. George Kittle is who he is. He is a boom/bust TE 1 in fantasy. We saw a poor game in week one, but we know he can go off for 150 yards at any moment. Kittle has averaged 70 yards and half a touchdown per game over his career against the Rams. 

The Rams have some new young weapons in the offense. Puka Nacau and Tutu Atwell combined for 16 receptions for 228 receiving yards. Puka Nacua is likely an exciting option for many owners; you can play him in week two. The 49ers were not great vs. receivers last year and allowed the Steelers receivers to carve them up over the middle. I can’t assume Nacua will see ten-plus targets consistently yet, but he should be in line for WR3 or flex option. He should be the go-to option for Stafford. 

Tutu Atwell is also very interesting, but I’d like to see him doing it again. He hasn’t done much since coming into the league two years ago. I’m watching him in week two, but he is not starting yet. Van Jefferson was supposed to be the WR1; he was in terms of snaps but not in targets. He is not trusted in lineups in week two as the outside receiver. We saw George Pickens get bodied against the 49ers outside receivers. Tyler Higbee was supposed to have a day against one of the worst team vs. fantasy tight ends but was overshadowed by the receivers. The 49ers allowed the Steelers tight end to produce in fantasy. Higbee averaged six receptions for 44 yards last year vs. the 49ers. The target share concerns me, so Higbee is a borderline TE1 with limited upside. 

New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 4:05 pm @ State Farm Stadium
• Weather – Indoors:)
• What Vegas is saying – Line (NYG -4.0) & Over/Under 39.5

Identifying the Game Script 

This is probably the worst game of the whole weekend between the Giants and the Cardinals. They haven’t played each other since 2020, when the Cardinals won 26 to 7. The Cardinals have won the last four matchups between the two. The Cardinals were supposed to be the worst team in the league, but they played well for that but lost to the Commanders. The Giants looked like the worst team in the league after a blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The Cardinals are starting Joshua Dobbs, so we’ll see if they will stay strong in a potentially favorable game. The Giants are just looking to get some offense going and hope the offensive line can help block for Daniel Jones.

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones is looking to bounce back after a terrible week one performance. It wasn’t all Jones’s fault, as his offensive lines gave him almost no time. He was sacked seven times, and his receivers couldn’t hang onto the ball. Jones could be in for another bad outing. While we all thought the Cardinals would be terrible, they were pretty good on defense. They sacked Sam Howell six times and forced two turnovers. The Giant’s offensive line may have lost Andrew Thomas, which could spell trouble for the offense. The 13 rushing attempts indicate that Jones will run with the ball often, which we want in a fantasy. Jones should be considered a mid-range QB2 that you should only start in superflex leagues in week two.

Joshua Dobbs is getting his second start of the season. Dobbs scored less than one fantasy point in week one against the Commanders. We didn’t see the Giant’s defense on full display, but they were a solid bunch coming into the year. It’s hard to trust Dobbs in this matchup in week two. He is better left on all benches, including Superflex. 

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley should be locked and loaded into lineups once again. Despite a terrible outing for the Giants offense, Barkley scored 7.5 points. The Cardinals’ defense looked better against the run in week one, but they were a team that gave up the 3rd most fantasy points to running backs last year. Barkley is a way better running back than Brian Robinson, so he should have few worries against the Cardinals’ run defense. Barkley is a workhorse back and should be a RB1 in this matchup.

Another running back who has the workload to himself is James Conner. He played 84% of the snaps in week one. He handled 14 carries and saw all five targets. The Giants allowed Tony Pollard to run all over them in week one and get into the endzone a few times. Conner should remain the focus point for this poor offense and be a solid RB2 in fantasy during week two.  

Pass Catchers

It’s hard to take much from week one for the Giants pass catchers. Darren Waller should be the target leader for this team. He should be in line to get back to a TE1 week against the Cardinals. The Cardinals did a decent job at slowing down the Commanders’ receivers, as not a single one has over 60 receiving yards. As expected, Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins were the starters in week one, with Parris Campbell as the slot guy. Darius Slayton would be the one I’d consider playing if I had to, as he was the only other one to see five targets in week one. I’d remain clear of most Giants pass catchers in week two. 

No one on the Cardinals’ pass catchers stood out in week one. Ronadle Moore led the charge with 33 yards on three receptions. The Giants gave up 77 yards to CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys WR1. Hollywood Brown should still be WR 1 for the Cardinals, but he is, at best, a WR 4 in this matchup. I don’t want to start a single receiver if I don’t have to. Zach Ertz saw ten targets but managed six receptions for 21 yards. In a desperate situation, you could elect to go with Ertz as you’re starting tight end for the week. Ertz is still coming off an injury. I’m only valuing him as a mid-range TE2 at best. As long as Joshua Dobbs is starting, it’s hard to trust any of these players. 

New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys

Details of the Script

• Sunday- 4:25 pm @ AT&T Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (DAL -9.0) & Over/Under 38.5

Identifying the Game Script 

It’s been a long time since the Jets and Cowboys played each other. The last time was in 2019, and the Jets won 24-22. The Jets stunned everyone with their MNF win over the Buffalo Bills. What did it cost? Aaron Rodgers is now out for the season. The elite defense will have to keep the Jets in games and hope Zach Wilson can find some light in his bust of an NFL career. The Cowboys are fresh off a dominant win over the Giants and look to have the best defense in the NFL. While we did see too much of the offense, they looked strong in limited time. This could be a battle of whichever defense holds strong wins the game.

Quarterbacks

Zach Wilson is back as the Jets quarterback for the foreseeable future in 2023. Wilson did lead a game-tying drive but did not look all that good in action. Now you want him to go against the defense that destroyed the Giants. No, Thank you. The Jets’ offensive line has many question marks and will have to go up against a defense that just had seven sacks in a game. In Superflex leagues, Zach Wilson is a sit, as it’s hard to trust the former 2nd overall pick. 

We didn’t see much of Dak Prescott in week one since he didn’t have to do much. From what we did know, it wasn’t that pretty either. Dak had a 54% completion rate with just 143 yards. Dak has to go up against a defense that held the Bill’s passing attack under 240 yards. While Dak won’t make as many wild throws as Josh Allen, the upside for Dak is tough. This Jets defense has been in the top 10 the last two years, and they have made fantasy quarterback’s lives miserable. Dak is a QB2 with minimal upside. He can get 230 yards and two touchdowns to keep his day alive. 

Running Backs

The Jets running back will eventually become Breece Hall’s backfield again. Hall showed speed and burst as he made multiple 20-yard runs in week one. He mostly only played in early downs but looked almost like his 2022 self. Hall will likely see a bigger role each week and should be a low-end RB2 in week two. The Cowboys were terrible last year against the run, but the defense kept Saqoun Bakely under 70 yards. Hall should continue to be a more significant part of the Jets’ offense, especially with Zach Wilson at quarterback. 

Dalvin Cook had most of the early down work and short-yardage roles. He was not very effective on the ground with a 2.5 YPC but saw three targets in the offense. His role shouldn’t change too much in week two, but it will likely drop as the season progresses. He should give RB3/Flex numbers in week two if he can be more efficient. He probably has a shot to score in that matchup, as well. Michael Carter had 10 of 11 third-down snaps in the offense. I’m not making too much of that, as Hall and Cook were coming off injuries. I said Carter could have a role early on to ease them all back in. Carter has been a solid pass-blocking back, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that role fades over the next few weeks. 

This Cowboys’ backfield is Tony Pollard now. Pollard played 32/43 possible snaps before he sat the rest of the night. Pollard handled every phase of the offense and should be looked at as an RB1. The Jets are a tough defense, but James Cook ran on them slightly. Pollard should have no issues seeing the workhorse role in the offense. While it is a tough Jets defense, Pollard should be considered a mid-RB1 in week two.  

Pass Catchers

Aaron Rodgers is done for the year, and Zach Wilson is back at quarterback. I want nothing to do with the pass catchers outside of Garrett Wilson. The Cowboys were terrible last year against fantasy receivers, but their defense in 2023 is special. They have two elite corners that make this secondary scary. I can’t trust Allen Lazard, Tyler Conklin, or Randall Cobb until I can see some consistently. In a tough week two matchup, Garrett Wilson goes from WR1 to a low-end WR2. 

We didn’t solve the pass catchers for the Cowboys in week one. CeeDee Lamb is the WR1 for this Cowboys team. The Jets’ defense has a strong secondary that can cause turnovers, but Stefan Diggs showed that WR 1 can still ball out. Lamb should be in line for at least eight-plus targets and post a low-end WR 1 number. The second and third receivers are Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks. They had the same amount of routes and combined for six targets in the game. As I said, week one didn’t tell the whole story for these two moving forward. In a tough matchup, they are, at best, risky flex options until we know more about their usage moving forward. Cooks is dealing with an MCL sprain. I wouldn’t start Cooks in week two. Jake Ferguson saw seven targets in week one, with five red zone targets. Unfortunately, he did not have a great game but led all tight ends in snaps and route runs. I expect Ferguson to be able to bounce back and give borderline TE1 numbers in week two. 

Washington Commanders vs. Denver Broncos

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 4:25 pm @ Empower Field at Mile High
• Weather -Sunny
• What Vegas is saying – Line (DEN -3.5) & Over/Under 39

Identifying the Game Script 

This game is a rare matchup between the Commanders and The Broncos. They don’t play each other too often, but the last time was in 2021, as the Broncos won 17-10. The Commanders snuck out a win against the poor Cardinals. The offense is looking to play much better than in week one. The Broncos lost to the Raiders by one point, as the Sean Payton era didn’t get off to a hot start. Russell Wilson is looking to get the offense fired after a mediocre week one. This one seems to be a low-scoring outing based on the Vegas odds.

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell didn’t have the big week I hoped for, but no one did. He did end up as a QB1; like I said, he may. I’m still hopeful that Howell will break out, and week one was just figuring things out. Howell was pressured all day by the Cardinals’ front seven, and Howell was sacked six times. The Broncos allowed Jimmy G to have a QB1 week in fantasy. The Broncos were a strong unit last year, but I didn’t see them on par in week one. Based on what Howell gave us in week one, He is better as a low-end QB2.

Russell Wilson was vanilla in week one, as he didn’t throw downfield much. We saw a 35% target share to his running back in the offense, which led to a high completion percentage. The Commanders are a solid overall team and dominated the poor Cardinals’ offense. So they didn’t get a real test on whether they are a good defense. I hope the Broncos open up the offense and throw the ball downfield more. I think Russel Wilson should be considered a low-end QB2 in fantasy. 

Running Backs

Brian Robinson was the lead guy in snaps, routes run, targets, and carries over Antonio Gibson in week one. It was a close game, which led to more Robinson in the offense. Gibson also had a lost fumble at some point and saw few touches after that. The Broncos were a strong unit against Josh Jacobs in week one, allowing under 50 rushing yards. Brian Robinson has pulled ahead of Gibson. Robinson should be considered a high-end RB3 in Fantasy with limited upside. He will likely need a touchdown to make his day great. Antonio Gibson is back as a sleeper, but it’s not a strong play. Denver did allow the seventh most receptions to running backs last year if Gibson can find that work. He is likely a sit due to this lowest touch count since 2020. 

The Broncos have a two-headed duo in their backfield. Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine split the backfield with a 45% snap rate. Javonte Williams led the early down work but didn’t see much of the third down and two-minute drills. He did have six targets, which we love to see in fantasy. As the season goes on, I expect Williams to see more involvement. Samaje Perine did handle the third down work and two min drill and saw four targets in week one. It could go either way in the red zone, as Denver will likely continue to split the backfield. The Commanders shut down the workhorse James Conner, especially allowing production in the passing game with just 5 yards. The Commanders were good last year against the run, so it could be a tough day for the Broncos’ backs. Since they are spending time, Williams and Perine should be high-end RB3s with possible flex play. 

Pass Catchers

The Commanders’ receivers were disappointing in week one. They all were held under 60 receiving yards. The Raiders beat down the Broncos secondary after being ranked second in 2022. It’s still a strong unit, but not as strong this season. Terry McLaurin is coming off a foot injury that could have limited his touches in week one. We hope he can see more in week two, but it’s hard to trust if that will happen. Mclaurin is a low-end WR3 in this matchup. Jahan Dotson led the team in routes and targets and should be in line for a bounce back in week two. Dotson should be considered a high-end WR 3 in this matchup.  

Curtis Samuel is the third receiver, but I’m not ready to have Samuel be a thing yet. It was one game in which the Cardinals’ nickel corner was an easy matchup. Logan Thomas had four receptions for 43 yards in week one. The Broncos were not great against tight end in 2022, so there is a good chance that Thomas could be solid in week two. We know this offense likes to use a veteran tight end, and he will see targets. Thomas is a high-end TE 2 in this matchup. 

The Broncos receivers disappointed outside of Courtland Sutton, whose day was saved with a touchdown. Sutton led the entire Broncos receivers in routes run and targets. Jerry Juedy looks ready to return in week two. If Juedy plays, Sutton likely falls to a borderline WR3. If Juedy is out again, Sutton should be a high-end WR3 in a decent matchup. For Jerry Juedy, in his first game back, if that is the case, he is a low-end WR3 for week two. Rookie Marvin Mims should be off-starting radars for the moment. He was fourth in snaps, routes run, and targets. I am not interested in Brandon Johnson or Lil Jordan Humphrey until I see a trend for them. They both got red zone targets so that a touchdown could be in their future again, but production will be low. Greg Dulcich is out for multiple weeks, which will give Adam Trautman some positive value. While it’s not enough to start him just yet, he does have low-end TE 2 value, but it could rise if his role in the passing game does expand. 

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

Details of the Script

• SNF – 8:20 pm @ Gillette Stadium
• Weather – Clear skies
• What Vegas is saying – Line (MIA -3.0) & Over/Under 46.5

Identifying the Game Script 

Sunday Night Football ends with a big divisional game between the Dolphins and the Patriots. The Dolphins have won four of the last five games against the Patriots. In the previous five games, they have averaged just 39 total points. The Dolphins are coming off a shootout win against the Chargers. The Dolphins are looking to get the defense locked up in week two. The Patriots played up to their opponent and came close to the Eagles. The offense was solid in week one, and the defense held the Eagles high power offense in check. This could be a very close and boring game on Sunday.

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa lit up the fantasy world in week one with almost 500 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. Tua offers elite QB1 upside for your fantasy lineups each week, but this is a tough matchup coming up for him. The Patriots are decent against fantasy quarterbacks and held Jalen Hurts to only 16 points. The Patriot’s secondary is young, but they are well-coached to play to the level of their opponent. Tua has averaged only 189 yards in four games against the Patriots. Last year, he did well enough with 270 yards and a touchdown, but those aren’t QB1 numbers. In week two, Tua offers borderline QB1 with upside but also risk. This offense can light up the scoreboard, but the Patriots are a tough matchup. You start Tua unless you have a better matchup. He is a bust/boom QB. 

Mac Jones surprised many in fantasy for week one, having close to 30 fantasy points. He did it against a tough Eagles defense to add to the impressiveness. Last year, Jones averaged 205 passing yards against the Dolphins defense, who did allow the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Miami’s secondary doesn’t hold up that strong this year, allowing Justin Herbert to ball out. It’s tough to gauge Jones since he isn’t a reliable option, but he looked great. Jones offers low-end QB2 play in superflex leagues with some upside.

Running Backs

For the Dolphins, Rasheem Mostert is the lead back. He handled most of the work among the running backs, with Slavon Ahmed as the backup. Mostert wasn’t overly good on ten carries and minimal passing work. The backfield will have a tough matchup since the Patriots were good against fantasy running backs last year. This year, they did well against the Eagles’ running back in week one. While Mostert could see more carries in the lower-scoring games, his usage in the receiving game is minimal. He should be RB3 for week two. Salvon Ahmed isn’t on the starting radars, and Devon Achane could be back in week two, which takes his role away. If Achane does return, he isn’t worth starting until we can see how his usage will go. 

The Patriots running back duo got shut down by the Eagles front seven. Rhamondre Stevenson and Zeke Elliott combined 50 rushing yards. Both players saw six targets each, but Stevenson was about to get 60 yards with his catches. Stevenson handled most of the work, especially in the two-minute drill and third down. Zeke Elliott did get the one goal-line run, which could cause trouble for Stevenson’s touchdown upside. The good news is that they are playing a team that gave up over 200 rushing yards in week one. I don’t expect the Dolphins to give up that every week, but it was a concerning flaw. Rhamondre Stevenson should be a borderline RB1 week with the favorable matchup and his targets. Zeke Elliott has some sleeper appeal since he saw a lot of work and could be a flex/RB3 week in week two. 

Pass Catchers

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle continue to be the only receivers you want to play among the pass catchers for the Dolphins. The Patriots held the Eagles in check, but they still produced enough that you can trust the Dolphins receivers. Tyreek Hill should be a WR1 in his matchup. His explosiveness and speed are elite, and he will continue to be a different maker for lineups. Jaylen Waddle wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t great for us in fantasy. His five targets are a concern as he was tied with guys like River Cracraft and Braxton Berrios in targets. We hope he can beat the number two corner like Devonta Smith did in week one. Waddle should be a WR2 until he can get back to seven or eight per game. 

For the Patriot’s pass catchers, the most trusted players are in the tight end position. Hunter Henry is a TE1 in a good matchup. The Dolphins have been in the bottom five in stopping fantasy tight ends the last two seasons. Henry was the TE1 in week one and should be again. Mike Gesicki could make some noise as he is playing his former team. It would depend on his share target, but three targets aren’t trustworthy for me to start. 

It’s hard to trust any Patriots receiver in this matchup. Juju Smith-Schuster was dealing with a knee injury, and his ability to only play in the slot limited him to third in snaps among receivers. He is, at best, a WR3 with limited upside in a tough matchup. Kendrick Bourne balled out in week one, leading in snaps, routes, and targets among all receivers. We’ve seen Bourne have random blow-up games before. He is not a start in week two. The two rookie receivers had a promising first game. Kayshon Boutte saw the second-most snaps and red zone targets. Demario Douglas saw seven targets and caught four of them for 40 yards. They may not be close to starting in fantasy lineups, but they should be watched as the season progresses. Devante Parker got some limited practice on Wednesday, so he will likely return in week two. Parker’s history on the field gives him WR5 value at best. 

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