New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns

Details of the Script

• TNF – 8:15 p.m. @ Cleveland Browns Stadium
• Weather – Potential Rain & Cloudy
• What Vegas is saying – Line (CLE -7.0) & Over/Under 35.5

Identifying the Game Script

We have the final TNF of the 2023 season. We are in the fantasy football championship, starting with the Jets vs. the Browns. Last time, the Jets would win a close shootout over the Browns 31-30 during the 2022 season. The Jets are coming in a last-second win after almost blowing a 20-point lead over the Commanders. The Browns would win a big game over the Texans as they look like a strong playoff team. Look for the Jets to continue trying to run the ball since that is how you can beat the Browns tough defense. The Browns passing game has been elite with Joe Flacco, but that Jets secondary is tough. They should establish the run against the Jets below-average run defense. I don’t expect this game to be a very fantasy-relevant game for the championships.

Quarterbacks

Trevor Siemian is going to get another start in Week 17. Siemian in a plus match-up was not all that great for fantasy. He only had 200 passing yards and threw for one touchdown. The Browns allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Browns have given up ten passing touchdowns in the last five weeks. The yardage has been lower, with only two quarterbacks over 250 passing yards in that span. Siemian hasn’t given me much confidence in playing him in Superflex leagues. Siemian is a QB3, as he doesn’t have the weapons or the talent to produce big fantasy numbers.

Joe Flacco is playing like it’s 2012 for the Browns. Flacco has been a fantastic fantasy quarterback in his four starts. He has over 20 fantasy points in four straight games. The Browns are throwing 40-plus times per game in Flacco’s starts. Flacco will have his toughest matchup yet against the Jets. The Jets allow the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Over the last five weeks, the Jets have not allowed quarterbacks to pass over 250 yards. We’ve seen Flacco do that in four straight games. The Jets also have given up only four passing touchdowns over the five weeks. Only three times this season has an opposing quarterback thrown for over one passing touchdown. Flacco has a history of how this defense works from being on the Jets last season. The way Flacco has been playing, he deserves high-end QB2 value. He is a safe play in Superflex and a risky quarterback in 1 QB leagues. But sometimes we ride the hot hand in fantasy football.

Running Backs

For the Jets backfield, we saw in Week 16 that the Jets allowed Breece Hall to be a workhorse running back. Hall has frustrated fantasy owners with his low usage and up-and-down fantasy season. He ran over 95 yards in Week 16, which was his most since week four of the season. Hall has been effective as long as he saw value in the passing game. Last week, he managed to be targeted 16 times in that game. The Browns have been an average run defense and the weakest of the entire defense. The Browns have not allowed much production to fantasy running backs in the last five games. They have allowed two running backs over 60 yards and three rushing touchdowns. We can’t be certain Hall will see that workload again in a tougher matchup. Who plays quarterback doesn’t matter, but is the offense willing to give Hall the work? Hall should be an RB2 in Week 17. His upside makes him start-worthy, but don’t expect a repeat of Week 16.

We continue to see disappointment in the fantasy playoffs for the Browns backfield. Jerome Ford has been under ten fantasy points the last two weeks. His YPC has been poor in four of the last seven games. Ford is a bit game-scripted because his value comes in the receiving game. The Jets can be a good matchup as they rank in the bottom ten against fantasy running backs. The Jets haven’t allowed a ton of yardage to running backs, but they have given up six rushing touchdowns in the last three weeks. Opposing running backs average around 50 rushing yards per game in the previous five weeks. I expect the Browns to lead, so Ford likely won’t see six-plus targets in this game. He will likely average around three in Week 17. Ford is a mid-range RB3. He is a decent play, but I don’t think he has the ceiling to be good. Kareem Hunt could be in for another touchdown on Sunday, making him a low-end RB4 in this matchup.

Pass Catchers

The Browns are a scary matchup for the Jets receivers as they allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed only two receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. Not that they played many elite receiving groups, but they still had a dominant secondary. The Jets don’t have many receivers to consider in a championship week. Garrett Wilson continues to see a high target share in the offense, with 11 last week. If he can see that production in this matchup, he should be fine. His upside hasn’t been there in the season’s second half, but a high-end WR3 finish should be spot on. No other receivers should be trusted on the Jets. For the tight ends, the Browns also allow the fourth fewest points to the position. In recent weeks, that has not been the case. In the last five games, the Browns have allowed five receiving touchdowns. Two tight ends over that span have gone for over 60 receiving yards. Tyler Conklin is the four-reception-for-35-yards type of tight end. He continues to be that low-end TE2 type of player that should be able to get five to seven fantasy points.

It will be the most challenging matchup for the Brown receivers of the weekend. The Jets allow the fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed three receivers over 50 yards in the last five weeks. They also have given up only two receiving touchdowns. Amari Cooper exploded in fantasy football in week 16 with 50 fantasy points. Cooper had 265 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. Cooper has played well with Flacco at quarterback, putting up solid numbers, but last week was something. Unlike last week, Cooper will jet the Jets, who run more man coverage, compared to the Texans, who run more zone coverage. Cooper has not done well against man coverage, with a 41% success rate. Cooper is a borderline WR2 despite the big game last week.

For Elijah Moore, we can put that to bed this season and hope for better play in 2024. He is outside the top 60 receivers. For the tight ends, the Jets have been a solid team against the position. They have allowed one tight end over 40 yards and two touchdowns over the last five weeks. David Njoku has been impressive the previous three weeks with games all over ten fantasy points. He continues to draw more red zone targets and is an essential piece to Flacco in the offense. There is no issue that Njoku is a TE1 in Week 17.