The Script for Fantasy Success: Week 16 – The Monday Slate

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Details of the Script

• Monday – 1:00 p.m. @ GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Weather – Rain/Cloudy
• What Vegas is saying – Line (KC -10.5) & Over/Under 40.5

Identifying the Game Script

We are getting the second of two games played by the Raiders and the Chiefs this year. Last time, the Chiefs would win 31-17 on the road over the Raiders. The Raiders would win over the Chargers in a massive blowout game. The Chiefs would handle business on the road and win against the Patriots. Look for the Raiders to try establishing the run game. Zamir White is in for Josh Jacobs again in Week 16 against a soft Chiefs run defense. The Chiefs need to continue getting the ball to their stars and focus on running it well to open the offense. The Chiefs have had their way with the Raiders over the years, so expect the same this week. This game could get more one-sided early on with the Chiefs at home.

Quarterbacks

Aidan O’Connell is coming off a massive fantasy day in Week 15, finishing with 33 fantasy points. That was O’Connell’s first game over 20 points this season. O’Connell has been below average as a starter, so don’t take Week 15 too seriously since it was against the Chargers. The Chiefs at home are scary, but they have been great overall against quarterbacks. They have allowed one quarterback to pass over 250 yards in the last five weeks. They have kept passing touchdowns in that span to only six. O’Connell put up 15 fantasy points last time they played the Chiefs. I don’t expect any more than that in this matchup. He should go back to being a QB3.

Patrick Mahomes would have a strong fantasy day with 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots. The issue was that throwing those two picks, most not his fault brought his fantasy numbers down. Mahomes has been under 20 fantasy points in three straight games. The Raiders are a tough secondary, ranking in the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks. In the last four weeks, that hasn’t been the case for the Raiders. They have allowed over 250 passing yards and two touchdowns to three of the previous four quarterbacks. The last time Mahomes faced the Raiders was his best game in the previous seven weeks. Mahomes averages two touchdowns per game at home this season. He should be able to give us a solid performance in the semi-finals this weekend and finish as a QB1.

Running Backs

The Raiders backfield will be without Josh Jacobs again this week. Jacobs missed last week due to an injury. Zamir White filled in with 85 total yards and a touchdown in Week 15. The Chiefs have been a favorable matchup for fantasy running backs. They have allowed three running backs over 70 yards in the last five weeks. They have done better the previous two weeks, not allowing a rusher over 60 yards. Expect Ameer Abdullah to work in as the passing down back in Jacobs’ absence. White is a mid-range RB3 who does have some upside. Abdullah will be a risky RB4/flex play.

The Chiefs backfield will have Isiah Pacheco this week after he missed the last two games. At that same time, the Chiefs lose Jerick McKinnon to injured reserve. The Raiders have been an average matchup for fantasy running backs this season. They have allowed only two running backs over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They have only given up two rushing touchdowns since week nine. Pacheco had 55 yards and two touchdowns the last time he faced the Raiders. The previous time McKinnon missed, Pacheco was over 19 fantasy points in both games. Pacheco could finish as RB1, but he comes with some risk of injury. In the backup role, Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t have much value last time, but with Pacheco coming off an injury, he could see more work. He would be an RB4.

Pass Catchers

The Chiefs will be a tougher matchup for the Raiders receivers as they rank in the top ten against the position. They have allowed five receivers over 70 yards in the last five weeks. The previous time, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers produced 70 yards against this defense. Davante Adams is coming off a massive game with over 20 fantasy points. Adams has only one game over ten in the last three weeks. While he did decent last time they played the Chiefs, he is still risky. He should see his targets in a catch-up game. He would be a high-end WR2 in Week 16.

Jakobi Meyers has just two of the last five games over ten fantasy points. He put up a big game last time against the Chiefs. Meyers should be locked for a mid-range WR3. For the tight ends, the Chiefs allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. They have allowed just one tight end to go over 40 receiving yards in the last five weeks. Michael Mayer is out, so Austin Hooper gets the start and full workload. I don’t expect Hooper to do much, as I’d keep him outside the top 24.

It looks to be a favorable matchup for the Chiefs receivers against the Raiders. They have allowed six receiving touchdowns in the last five weeks. They also gave up a 100-yard receiver in three of the previous four games. Last time, Rashee Rice went nuts for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Rice has been nothing but amazing the previous four weeks. He has four straight games with nine-plus targets that have turned into double-digit fantasy points in each game. Rice has taken over as the top receiver on the team and potential top pass catcher. Rice should be a high-end WR2 in Week 16.

For the rest of the Chiefs receivers, you should not consider them in lineups. They have been very inconsistent for fantasy. The Raiders can be a solid matchup for the tight ends this week. They have allowed three tight ends over 40 yards in the last five weeks but zero touchdowns. Travis Kelce should be fine in this matchup. He is a TE1 that you aren’t going to sit for anything.

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

Details of the Script

• Monday – 4:30 p.m. @ Lincoln Financial Field
• Weather – Mostly Cloudy
• What Vegas is saying – Line (PHI -13.5) & Over/Under 43.5

Identifying the Game Script

We are getting the first of two games played by the Giants and Eagles this season. The last time the Eagles beat the Giants in the playoffs was 38-7. Their average game points in the previous five games has been 43.5 points. The Giants are coming off a loss on the road to the Saints. The Eagles would be shocked by the Seahawks on MNF and lose in the final moments. For the Giants offense, they need to attack the Eagles horrible secondary and score fantasy points for us. The Eagles can do whatever they want since the Giant’s offense is bad this season. This could be a fun, higher-scoring fantasy day for many players on the field. I expect the Eagles to pull ahead, allowing catch-up fantasy points for the Giants in this one.

Quarterbacks

Tommy DeVito is coming off his worst fantasy day since week nine of the season. DeVito left briefly with an injury, but it wasn’t great for fantasy. DeVito is showing off a small rushing floor with 30 yards in three of the last five games. He has been under 200 passing yards, which will not help his fantasy day. DeVito has the best matchup for the weekend, as the Eagles allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have allowed over 270 passing yards in three of the last five games. They have allowed nine quarterbacks to throw for two or more passing touchdowns this season. DeVito has been fine but not great, but his matchup is intriguing. In Superflex leagues, I wouldn’t mind giving him a shot as a QB2 for your team. He is a borderline QB2 in Week 16.

Jalen Hurts was able to bounce back in fantasy with his 21-point game in Week 15. Hurts has been magical this season and should continue being a 20-plus point fantasy player. The matchup shouldn’t matter as much to Jalen Hurts, but we’ve seen the Giants allow great games from solid fantasy quarterbacks. They only have played two in the last five weeks, and they both threw for three passing touchdowns. Jalen Hurts is a cheat code for fantasy football. I expect him to do well at home and finish as a QB1.

Running Backs

For the Giants backfield, we’ve had to deal with the ups and downs of Saquon Barkley this season. In the last five weeks, Barkley has put up two games well over 20 fantasy points but three under seven fantasy points. We’ve seen Barkley be a frustrating fantasy option all season. The Eagles continue to allow the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. However, they have not been an elite run defense in the last five weeks. They have allowed three running backs in the previous five weeks to produce over 80 rushing yards. They also have given up three straight games with a rushing touchdown. I’m giving Barkley the full go this week. Despite what we saw last week, he should continue to command most of the touches in the backfield. Playing a divisional opponent, the Giants will give their star as much work to beat them. He is a RB1 in Week 16.

For the Eagles backfield, D’Andre Swift has been disappointing down the stretch in fantasy football. He has four straight games under ten fantasy points. This work in the receiving game has been more inconsistent, and he hasn’t scored since Week 11. Swift will get another chance to produce as he played the Giants, who rank in the bottom ten against fantasy running backs. They have allowed four running backs over the last five weeks to produce over 60 rushing yards. We’ve also seen working in the receiving game to backs as well. Swift is getting hard to trust since the touchdowns don’t go his way. He already sees fewer tries, especially if they get within the five-yard line. The matchup is solid, but he is more of a low-end RB2. You can play him, but lately, he comes with more risk than reward. Start Boston Scott if you are desperate for running backs and have none. He has eight career games vs. the Giants and has nine touchdowns.

Pass Catchers

For the Giants receivers, the Eagles are the best matchup of the weekend. The Eagles allow the most fantasy points per game to fantasy receivers. They have allowed ten receiving touchdowns in the last five weeks. They also have given up five receivers over 70 yards in the previous four weeks. In deep leagues or if you are desperate to play, Darius Slayton or Wan’Dale Robinson could be options in Week 16. It’s tough to trust any Giants receivers, but they could finish with good days. They are both WR5s in this matchup.

For the tight ends, the Eagles have been a decent matchup for the position. They have allowed three tight ends over 40 yards in the last five weeks. Darren Waller returned with a decent first game. He led the team in targets and finished with 40 yards. I’d expect Waller to do the same this week against the Eagles. Waller should have seven to eight targets and finish as a TE1 in Week 16.

For the Eagles receivers, the Giants are in the bottom ten in the league against the position. An opposing receiver has not gone over 50 yards in the last four weeks. The last time the Giants played an elite team, they allowed two 100-yard receivers. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith have been such great fantasy options this year. We could see more from AJ Brown since Smith is dealing with that knee injury. Brown will see close to double-digit targets and finish as a WR1. I have more concerns for Smith since he has been under ten fantasy points with Goedert back on the field. Plus, Smith is dealing with an injury going into this game. He is more of a low-end WR2 in Week 16.

For the tight ends, the Giants do well against the position. They rank in the top ten in points per game against the tight end. They have allowed three touchdowns in the last five weeks but only two tight ends over 30 yards. Dallas Goedert has never scored a touchdown against the Giants. Goedert has more name value than actual production in 2023. He will get you 6-7 points, but that’s it. His upside is not there this season or this game. He is a borderline TE1.

Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers

Details of the Script

• MNF – 8:30 p.m. @ Levi’s Stadium
• Weather – Sunny/Cloudy
• What Vegas is saying – Line (SF -.6.0) & Over/Under 46.5

Identifying the Game Script

The last time the Ravens and the 49ers faced off was during the 2019 season. The 49ers would win a close one at home, 20-17. The Ravens are coming off a big win on SNF as they beat the Jaguars. The 49ers would continue to roll, taking down the Cardinals. The Ravens don’t have many good matchups against the 49ers, but getting the ball to their receivers and allowing them to make plays would help this team. The 49ers don’t have any easy matchups for fantasy, but I expect the 49ers not to worry and give the ball to their star players. This is one of the most exciting games of the weekend for the NFL and fantasy.

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson is playing better in the second half of the season. He has three of his last five games over 20 fantasy points, and his rushing yards are up. As a passer, Jackson has been okay with a 57% completion rate since Week 10. In the first nine games, he was at 70%. San Fransisco allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to fantasy quarterbacks. The 49ers have given up three of the last five quarterbacks to produce 240 or more passing yards. The 49ers have kept touchdowns to a minimum, with only five in those last five games. They have allowed three separate quarterbacks to run for over 40 rushing yards. Jackson will likely have to put the team on his back, especially his arm. I don’t think the Ravens will be able to run well, so Jackson will have to do it himself. Jackson’s upside is too good to pass on in Week 16. He is a low-end QB1 in this matchup.

Brock Purdy has been dominant in fantasy football since week ten. He has just one game under 25 fantasy points in the last six weeks. Since Week 10, Purdy has 11 passing touchdowns and just two interceptions. He is also throwing for big yardage with 295 or more in four of six games. Purdy will get a tough matchup against the Ravens as they allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game. Since week nine, they have allowed just one opposing quarterback to throw for more than one passing touchdown. They have allowed a quarterback to throw for over 250 passing yards in back-to-back games. Purdy, even in this tough matchup, will be hard to sit. He has been on fire in fantasy and has all the tools to produce big fantasy days. Purdy should shine on MNF and give us a QB1 week.

Running Backs

The Ravens backfield had a significant loss in Keaton Mitchell, who is out for the season. That would still leave starter Gus Edwards as the main guy. Edwards’s fantasy value this season has mostly been based on his ability to score touchdowns. He will likely get more work with Mitchell out of the season. I expect Justice Hill and maybe Melvin Gordon to see more work in Week 16. The 49ers are a top-ten run defense this season. They have been great at stopping fantasy running backs in the last five weeks. Although last week, they allowed two 60-yard rushers and gave up two rushing touchdowns. If Edwards doesn’t score in this game, you’ll likely see him finish with about six fantasy points. Touchdowns are a key to his success in this game. Edwards is a low-end RB3 with minimal upside. Justice Hill could be used more in the passing game. He sits as an RB4.

For the 49ers backfield, we all know that CMC is an unstoppable beast for fantasy football. The Ravens are ranked as a top-ten unit against fantasy running backs. The Ravens have allowed two 100-yard rushers against them in the last five weeks. While they have only allowed one rushing touchdown in that span, CMC should be able to produce without issues in this matchup. Christian McCaffrey should be a RB1 in Week 16.

Pass Catchers

For the Ravens receivers, the 49ers have been a decent matchup for the position. Recently, they have only allowed three receivers over 55 yards in the last five games. In a favorable matchup last week, the Ravens failed to make an impact in fantasy. They all finished under ten fantasy points in that game. Zay Flowers has been inconsistent in fantasy football. He is having a great season, but only as a low-end WR3. Odell Beckham failed to do anything, but I like him in his matchup. He has been over ten fantasy points in two of the last three games. He is also a low-end WR3 in Week 16.

The 49ers are a tough team against tight ends, ranking in the top ten against the position. They went five straight weeks before Week 15, keeping tight ends under 30 yards. Trey McBride went off for 100 yards against them. Isaiah Likely has been great since coming off the Raven’s bye week. He has 13 targets and has produced over 150 yards and two touchdowns in the last two weeks. If the Ravens are going to feed him the ball, he has a chance to be decent in fantasy today. I like him as a low-end TE1. He is worth the tough matchup.

For the 49ers receivers, the Ravens are a tough matchup as they rank in the top ten against the position. They have allowed five receivers over 70 yards in the last five weeks. They also have given up five receiving touchdowns in the span. Deebo Samuel has been dominant in fantasy since the 49er’s bye week. He has over ten fantasy points in five of the last six games. He also had two 30-point games in that span. I don’t expect Deebo to go away in a tough matchup. He will be heavily involved in the passing and run game. He should be a WR1 in Week 16. Brandon Aiyuk was coming off his worst game since week two and left that game early. Aiyuk offers a nice floor play for us in fantasy. He gives us around 13 fantasy points most weeks, but the upside games have gone to Samuel this season. He should be a solid mid-range WR2 in Week 16.

For the tight ends, the Ravens allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. It’s been a different story in the last five weeks, with four tight ends over 40 yards. They also have given up touchdowns in two of the previous three games. George Kittle has just one game over ten fantasy points in the previous four weeks. Kittle has been known to go hot and cold in fantasy. He offers a solid floor for tight ends that he should finish as a TE1, but he has the upside to do even more.