Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals

Details of the Script

• Saturday – 1:00 p.m. @ Paycor Stadium
• Weather – Rain Game
• What Vegas is saying – Line (CIN -3.0) & Over/Under 40.5

Identifying the Game Script

The last time we saw the Vikings and the Bengals play was in the 2021 season. The Bengals would win in overtime 27-24 over the Vikings. The Vikings are coming off the worst win in over 12 yards. The Bengals would win a big game with their backup quarterback over the Colts. The Vikings should look to get the passing game going this week with TJ Hockenson. The Bengals have been unable to stop the tight ends this season. The Bengals will have to play smart, as the Vikings have been a very good defense this season. The best thing for them is to continue getting the ball to their stars and use the running backs in the receiving game.

Quarterbacks

Nick Mullens will be getting his first start since the 2021 season. His last start was with the Browns, and he only threw for 147 yards and a touchdown. He started for the 49ers in 2018 & 2020, where he had some decent games. The Bengals have been a decent secondary at times, but they can be thrown on. They have allowed eight straight games with a passer over 240 passing yards. The passing touchdowns have been minimal over the last eight games. They have allowed just eight touchdowns in that span. They have been a team that has allowed rushing yards to quarterbacks and three rushing touchdowns. Mullens will hopefully have Justin Jefferson, but he has solid overall weapons in this offense. We’ve seen him be successful, and this offense is successful, so if they can bring it together, that would be great for fantasy. Mullens is a borderline QB2 in Week 15. It’s hard to trust he can get this team right in one game.

Jake Browning has been fantastic the last two weeks, with over 25 points. The offense has looked better, with Browning playing at a higher level. Browning has had two easier matchups, so let’s see if he can handle a tougher one. The Vikings have been better against fantasy quarterbacks in the last month. They have allowed only two quarterbacks over 230 passing yards in the previous five weeks.

What is more impressive is they have only allowed four passing touchdowns in that span. Browning will have his work made out for him in this game. We’ll see how well Browning can handle a tough matchup. The Vikings like to create pressure and cause turnovers. Browning is a low-end QB2 in Week 15. He should be trusted in Superflex leagues.

Running Backs

The Vikings backfield will be without Alexander Mattison, which could be a good thing for the offense. Mattison has been ineffective in the run game for most of the season, as he needs a lot of touches to be effective. Despite getting targets and touchdowns, he has not been a huge threat in the receiving game. Ty Chandler will get the start in Week 15. The Bengals have given up plenty of production to fantasy running backs this season. They have held an opposing running back under 50 yards in their two big wins the last two weeks. Before that, they allowed three straight games to a running back over 60 yards. They also have given up five rushing touchdowns in the last five weeks. Ty Chandler has flashed at times this season, but this will be the first time he sees the full workload. Chandler has a strong shot at getting the second rushing touchdown of the season for the Vikings. He is a low-end RB2 in Week 15.

For the Bengals backfield, we have some life from them in fantasy. Joe Mixon has double-digit fantasy points in six of the last seven games. He has scored six touchdowns during that span, which has made him look like a solid running back. Backup Chase Brown has 166 yards over the last two games as they looked to get him more involved. The Vikings are a stout run defense, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed one rushing touchdown in the last five weeks. They have barely allowed one running back over 50 rushing yards in that span.

Mixon hasn’t run well the last two weeks, but touchdowns and receiving work have made him a solid fantasy option. The Vikings have allowed production in the receiving game, so Mixon should be fine. I don’t think he has an RB1 upside, but he should be a solid, high-end RB2 in Week 15. Chase Brown is eclectic, but his long touchdown made his fantasy day seem better than what it is. He should see at least ten touches in this game, but he must make a big play. He is an RB4 and would be a desperate big-play option in Week 15.

Pass Catchers

For the Vikings receivers, the Bengals have been a decent matchup for the position. They have allowed six receivers over 60 yards. Teams should be able to throw on them, especially outside receivers. Justin Jefferson is questionable for this game, but I believe he will play. We didn’t see him much last week since he left early with an injury. His talent is too good to pass on if he is on the field Saturday. He should be a low-end WR1 in Week 15.

Jordan Addison has struggled without Kirk Cousins on the field. His fantasy points per game have dropped from 13.55 to 6.62 since Cousins went on IR. Addison was only targeted once on Mullens’ attempts last week. Addison is a WR5 for now. His production in this matchup doesn’t offer confidence in the playoffs. If Jefferson misses, Addison would jump to a WR4. The Bengals will be the best matchup of the weekend for the tight ends. They have allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Bengals have allowed five of the last seven games with 80-plus yards to a tight end. TJ Hockenson has been very consistent, with 50 yards in seven straight games. While his upside could be capped with Jefferson on the field, he is a TE1 among the tight ends.

For the Bengals receivers, the Vikings will not be an easy matchup. They have allowed only two receivers over 70 yards in the last five weeks. In that same span, they have only given up three receiving touchdowns. Ja’Marr Chase had a down game despite the team putting up 34 points. I’m not going to overreact to this bad game. Chase should be in lineups on Saturday. He should return to eight-plus targets and find his way into the endzone. Chase is a mid-range WR2 in Week 15.

For Tee Higgins, he had two catches for 72 yards last week. Higgins will be limited with Browning as the quarterback. The trust level that Higgins is going to do well isn’t there. He is a three-reception for 60-yard player at the moment. He is a low-end WR4 due to the lack of targets. Tyler Boyd‘s targets matched his recent production with only three targets. Boyd is not a receiver to start and is outside the top 60. For the tight ends, the Vikings are an average team against the position. They have allowed three of the last five tight ends over 40 yards. Tanner Hudson is a decent tight end, averaging six points per game. Hudson isn’t anything special, but he could find a floor in Week 15. He is a low-end TE2.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts

Details of the Script

• Saturday – 4:30 p.m. @ Lucas Oil Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (IND -1.5) & Over/Under 42.5

Identifying the Game Script

The last time the Steelers and Colts played was in the 2022 season. The Steelers would win 24-17 on the road to the Colts. The Steelers would lose an embarrassing game on TNF last week to the Patriots. The Colts would get blown out by the Bengals 34-14. For the Steelers, look for them to establish the run against the Colts poor run defense. They don’t have a strong passing game, so they need to get the run going. The Colts need to get their run game going this week, as the Steelers have shown weakness in that area. This game should have lower scoring, as neither offense seems on point.

Quarterbacks

Mitch Trubisky put up some decent fantasy numbers in week 14. Trubisky showed off a rushing floor that we knew that he had. His passing does come with some question marks, but his rushing is essential. The Colts have been decent for the passing game in the last few weeks. They have allowed more passing yards in each of the last three games. They have allowed five passing touchdowns in those previous three weeks. For Trubisky, the team will likely lean on the ground game and play tough defense. I don’t expect Trubiksy to throw the ball all that much. Unless he can continue running, Trubisky will only be a QB3 in Week 15.

Gardner Minshew continues to be an average fantasy quarterback this season. He has finished under 15 fantasy points in four of the last five weeks. The Steelers secondary has ranked inside the top 10 against fantasy quarterbacks. In two of the previous three weeks, they have allowed over 230 passing yards and two touchdowns. The only three quarterbacks had under 230 passing yards and one or fewer touchdowns. Minshew hasn’t shown he can produce big fantasy numbers in a tough matchup. Minshew is, at best, a low-end QB2. He has a floor, but his ceiling is risky to trust in Week 15.

Running Backs

For the Steelers backfield, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have been a disappointment over the last four games. They both have one game over ten fantasy points and have had good matchups. They continue to limit each other from being a more consistent fantasy back. If they are not scoring touchdowns, then their fantasy days are low. The Colts allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Colts have given up five rushers over 60 yards in the last four weeks. We’ve seen the Colts give up plenty of receiving work to opposing backs. Najee Harris should see at least 12 carries and a few targets in this game. He is a decent fantasy play, but his upside is capped. He is a low-end RB2. Warren has struggled under the new offense since Matt Canada was fired. After averaging 17.6 fantasy points the three games before the firing. Since then, he has been averaging 6.2 fantasy points. Warren has big play potential but has not shown that ability. Warren is a high-end RB3.

Zack Moss has been a disappointment since taking over the starting job with Jonathan Taylor’s injury. Taylor is out for at least one more week, so Moss will get the start. Moss has 119 yards on 38 touches over the last two games. The big plays and upside he showed have not been there this time. The Steelers run defense has been up and down, but they have allowed a 60-yard rusher in three of the last five games. They allow value in the receiving game, as we saw Zeke Elliott with 72 yards last week. Moss has been playing 90% or more of the offensive snaps and taking most of the touches. If they continue to do that to Moss in Week 15, he should have a chance to redeem himself in the playoffs. Moss is a high-end RB2 in this game.

Pass Catchers

For the Steelers receivers, the Colts have been a decent team against the position. They have allowed four receivers over 70 yards but none over 90. Diontae Johnson has been better in fantasy in the last two weeks under Mitch Trubisky. He has caught a touchdown in back-to-back games. We saw Calvin Austin eat into Diontae Johnson’s playing time due to Austin’s ability as a blocker. Johnson seems to thrive in fantasy with fewer snaps on the offense. Johnson has shown us he has a good connection with his quarterback and should be a low-end WR3. George Pickens would typically have a good matchup since his downfield ability can beat the Colts. Trubisky has struggled to get the ball downfield to Pickens. Pickens would be a low-end WR4 in this matchup but could be a nice sleeper play in the playoffs.

For the tight ends, the Colts rank in the bottom ten in the league against the position. They have allowed three tight ends over 40 yards in the last five weeks. Pat Freiermuth has struggled the last two weeks, only 47 yards after his blowup game three weeks ago. He has seen 12 targets in the previous two weeks, so I believe he will continue to see targets in this game. Freiermuth should be a high-end TE2. His upside has been limited, but his targets should help him return to decent fantasy numbers in Week 15.

For the Colts receivers, the Steelers have been better against the position in the last five weeks. They have only allowed three receivers over 60 yards in that timeframe. Michael Pittman Jr. is a must-start fantasy player. Pittman has had over ten targets, 80 yards, and ten fantasy points in the last four weeks. Pittman has been fantastic with Minshew as he is feeding him the ball. He should have no issues in this matchup to finish as a WR1 in Week 15. Alec Pierce and the Colts TEs should not be near the playoffs’ starting lineup. Josh Downs seems to have hit the rookie wall since he has been under ten fantasy points in five straight games. He doesn’t see the big target games like earlier in the year. Downs has dropped to a high-end WR5. There could be something there since the Steelers gave up some production to the slot, but Downs has been unproductive.

Denver Broncos vs Detriot Lions

Details of the Script

• Saturday – 8:15 p.m. @ Ford Field
• Weather – Indoors : )
• What Vegas is saying – Line (DET -4.5) & Over/Under 47.5

Identifying the Game Script

The Broncos and the Lions haven’t faced off since the 2021 season. The Broncos would win in a blowout 38-10 at home. Last week the Broncos got another win as they took down division foe Los Angeles Chargers. The Lions could not return this time as they lost to the Bears. Look for the Broncos to get their passing game going against the Lions terrible secondary. They have allowed plenty of passing recently, so the Broncos must take advantage. The Lions should get back to using their elite backfield and run the ball down the Broncos poor run defense. This game should be an exciting one for the fantasy playoffs.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson has been mediocre over the last month, as he hasn’t crossed the 20-point threshold in that span. Wilson hasn’t needed to do much during their win streak besides keeping the turnovers to a minimum. The Lions allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to fantasy quarterbacks. Opposing quarterbacks have produced differently against the Lions over the last five games. We’ve seen pure passers throw for big yardage and score two-plus touchdowns. We’ve seen mobile quarterbacks use their legs and produce for fantasy in that way. It could be a favorable matchup for Wilson, but he is on the road. Wilson averages less than a touchdown and over an interception per game in six road games. Wilson should end up as a mid-range QB2 in Week 15. He is riskier in 1QB league but should offer a solid floor in Superflex leagues. The matchup is great, but Wilson has struggled, especially on the road.

Jared Goff is coming off his worst game since playing the Ravens in week seven. Goff has looked good, but his fantasy numbers could be better. He has three turnovers in a game in three of the last five weeks. Goff has as many turnovers as passing touchdowns since week ten. The Broncos defense has looked elite in the previous six weeks. Since week eight, they have allowed only four passing touchdowns. They have dropped opposing quarterbacks’ passing yards during their win streak, but they have not in the last two weeks. The Broncos have given a passer over 275 passing yards in the previous two games. Goff has the talent around him to do well, but the run game has a terrific matchup, so the Lions may lean on them to move the offense. Goff is a high-end QB2 in Week 15.

Running Backs

In Denver, Javonte Williams scored his first rushing touchdown of 2023. Williams continues to carry the workload for the offense while seeing some involvement in the passing game. His production has been more of a low-end RB2 most weeks, but he finished high, thanks to the touchdown. The Lions rank in the top ten against fantasy running backs this season. The Lions have been solid against fantasy running backs, allowing just one back over 50 rushing yards in the last five weeks. Williams should see 13 plus carries and about four targets in this game. Williams would likely be more of a low-end RB2.

For the Lions backfield, look for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to stand out in this matchup. Since week ten, they both have been top-five fantasy running backs in fantasy. While the game script does depend on which back usually performs better, they have been fantastic for fantasy. The Broncos allow the most fantasy points per game to backfields. They have allowed five running backs over 60 yards in the last five weeks. We’ve seen the Lions face tough run defenses and still be able to run the ball well. They both should be RB1s in Week 15. Montgomery would likely see more work, as I expect the Lions to be behind in this matchup. They should both be safe options in the first round of fantasy playoffs.

Pass Catchers

For the Broncos receivers, the Lions are a favorable matchup. They rank in the bottom ten per game against fantasy receivers. The Lions have given up seven receiving touchdowns in the last five weeks. They have also given up five WR1s over that span. Courtland Sutton continues to have his resurging season in 2023. His yardage has been okay, but he has ten touchdowns in 13 games. Sutton continues to lead this game and should on Saturday. Sutton should be a fine WR2 in Week 15. He will have a high-percentage shot to score a touchdown in this matchup. Jerry Jeudy continues to disappoint despite a decent target share on the offense. He had a fantastic matchup last week and blew it. Jeudy should be a low-end WR5 at best in Week 15. The tight end position has been too nonexistent to trust in a playoff matchup.

For the Lions receivers, the Broncos rank in the top ten this season against the position. The Broncos have stepped up during their hot streak against receivers, allowing just one touchdown in the last six weeks. They have been great at keeping yardage down during that span, but they have allowed a 90-yard receiver in back-to-back games. Amon-Ra St. Brown is coming off his worst game of the season. St. Brown has been a consistent double-digit fantasy point finisher. He should be a WR1 in lineups despite the difficult matchup. Jameson Williams and Josh Reynolds have seen inconsistent production and targets since Williams returned to the field. They are both outside my top 60 receivers in Week 15. They don’t feel like safe plays or big upside plays.

The Broncos are a fantastic matchup for the tight end position in Week 15. They allow the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They have allowed five tight ends over 40 yards in the last five weeks. Sam LaPorta is coming off a game against the Bears, where he had only three points. LaPorta has performed at a high level all season, aside from when he plays the Bears. LaPorta is a TE1 in this matchup. He consistently sees six-plus targets in matchups. He is in for a big game in Week 15.