The Script for Fantasy Success: Week 15 – MNF

Philadelphia Eagles vs Seattle Seahawks

Details of the Script

• MNF – 8:15 p.m. @ Lumen Field
• Weather – Clear Night
• What Vegas is saying – Line (PHI -3.0) & Over/Under 45.5

Identifying the Game Script

It’s Monday night football! Hopefully, you are close to securing your first playoff win. The Eagles and the Seahawks haven’t played each other since the 2020 season. Seattle would win on the road from 23 to 17. The Eagles are coming off a bad divisional loss to the Cowboys but have clinched the playoffs. Seahawks are coming off a divisional loss to the 49ers as well. Look for the Eagles to run the ball more with their backfield, as the Seahawk’s run defense has been bad. Seattle needs to attack the secondary as much as possible with whoever is playing quarterback. I’m hopeful this game can give us many fantasy studs to end Week 15.

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts is questionable for MNF due to sickness, but reports are that he will play. Hurts is coming off his worst game of the season with under ten points. Hurts has been a star this season for fantasy, but we know a good portion of his production is his rushing ability. Seattle has allowed a ton of production to quarterbacks this season. They have allowed three quarterbacks to throw for over 300 passing yards in the last five weeks. They also have allowed those quarterbacks to throw for two-plus passing touchdowns. Hurts may not run as much due to his illness, so he may be able to find success in the passing game. You don’t want to count him out in any situation. It only takes two goalline rushing touchdowns to get 14 points quickly. Hurts should be a QB1 in Week 15. If Hurts misses, Marcus Mariota would play and be considered a low-end QB2 with upside.

Geno Smith is questionable for this game, as he still has a groin injury. He missed last week with the same injury and is a game-time decision. I’d look for another option if you rely on Smith for Sunday. He has a fantastic matchup, as the Eagles allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Eagles have allowed two-plus passing touchdowns in five straight games. In those five games, they have given up 270 passing yards or more in four games. Smith has not been great for most of the season, but we still remember that game with the Cowboys a few weeks ago. Smith has the weapons and would likely throw more often in this game. Smith would be a high-end QB2. If Smith didn’t go, Drew Lock would get another start in fantasy. Lock is a gunslinging quarterback with an arm but takes too many risks. He would be a low-end QB2 due to his turnover potential.

Running Backs

The Eagles backfield needs to get back to allowing D’Andre Swift to run more often. Swift has under 40 rushing yards in back-to-back games. He is not seeing the big workloads like in the early part of the year. The Seahawks allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Seahawks have allowed four straight rushers over 65 yards. They have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns this season. This should be a game in which the Eagles allow the backfield to see more work as long as they are ahead. A sick Jalen Hurts or Marcus Mariota would need the run game to be efficient. Swift should get back to seeing 14-plus carries and finish well. Swift will have a prime opportunity to score at any moment in the game. He should be an RB1 in Week 15. Kenny Gainwell should be an RB4 in this game. Gainwell does get put into great situations often, and a touchdown could have his name on it.

We are dealing with a two-back committee for the Seattle backfield now. Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet are both heavily involved in the offense. Walker played more of the early downs last week, while Charbonnet handled the passing downs. The stats show Charbonnet had one more carry, and Walker was targeted more in the passing game. The Eagles allow the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. The Eagles have softened against fantasy backfields by allowing 100 rushing yards in four straight games. Some individual backs have rushed over 60 yards in that span, but opposing backfields have done well. They also have given up a rushing touchdown in back-to-back games. 

Ken Walker should remain as the 1A option in the offense. He will see at least half of the groundwork and get involved in the passing game. If Walker can see the targets in the offense, he should be able to finish this game as a mid-range RB2. Charbonnet hasn’t overly performed with a healthy Walker on the field. Charbonnet will get his opportunities but is more of a mid-range RB3 in his game.

Pass Catchers

For the Eagles receivers, the Seahawks are in the bottom ten against the position. In the last two weeks, we’ve seen this secondary get destroyed by fantasy receivers. They have allowed three 100-yard receivers and three touchdowns. AJ Brown has got back on track the last two weeks with over 90 receiving yards. Brown shouldn’t have an issue performing in this matchup. As long as he continues to have a high target share, Brown should finish as a WR1. DeVonta Smith finished under ten fantasy points for the first time since week eight. The return of Dallas Goedert still didn’t stop Smith from getting ten targets. Smith should see at least seven-plus targets in this matchup. Smith should be able to finish as a high-end WR2. I do have concerns that Goedert will see more targets, and those usually come from Smith’s targets.

For the tight ends, Seattle has allowed big performances this season. Since week eight, they have allowed four tight ends over 70 receiving yards. Dallas Goedert returned last week with four receptions for 30 yards. Goedert only has two games this season over ten fantasy points. His name value has kept him higher than how he is performing this season. Goedert‘s target will determine how he performs in fantasy. He would be a low-end TE1 in Week 15.

The Eagles allow the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Touchdowns have crushed the Eagles in the last five weeks. They have given up 11 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers. They have allowed five receivers over 70 yards in that span. DK Metcalf is “the guy” in this receiving group. He has double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games. He should be able to dominate the Eagles backup secondary players in this matchup. Metcalf should be able to get over 100 yards and finish as a WR1. It won’t matter who the quarterback is.

Tyler Lockett was able to have a decent game last week. He has over ten fantasy points in two of the previous five games. We may see more passing deep with Drew Lock at quarterback, which could help Lockett in this game. Lockett is a solid WR3 in Week 15. Jaxon Smith-Njigba struggled last week against the 49ers. Smith-Njigba has been solid this season but failed to produce with Lock under center. If Geno Smith starts, JSN should be fine as a high-end WR4. If Lock is at quarterback, we have to hope that game was a fluke. JSN would be more of a mid-range WR4. There is a lot of expectation for this receiving group against a terrible secondary. The tight end position has no shot of starting in a fantasy playoff game.