Tampa Bay Buccaneeers vs Atlanta Falcons

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (ATL -2.5) & Over/Under 40.5

Identifying the Game Script

The Bucs and Falcons are playing their second of two games this season. Last time, the Falcons would win a close one, 16-13, on the road over the Bucs. The Falcons are coming off an ugly win over the Jets in a rain game. The Bucs would handle business and take care of the Panthers. Look for the Bucs to continue using their passing game with Mayfield as the Falcons struggle to stop the position. Cade Otton could be in for a bounce back, as the Falcons have been a favorable defense to the position. The Falcons may not be able to run the ball the whole time, so they will have to rely on Desmond Ridder. They have a favorable match up against the Buc’s secondary in Week 14. This should be a fun divisional game on Sunday.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield has struggled over the last three weeks, with under 20 fantasy points. Mayfield is usually a solid fantasy quarterback but has dealt with turnovers in the previous four games. He has six turnovers during those four games. The Falcons rank in the bottom ten against fantasy quarterbacks this season. In the last three weeks, they have not allowed a passing touchdown. For the most part this season, the Falcons have been great at allowing one or fewer passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Last time, Mayfield threw for 275 passing yards and only one touchdown. The good news is that Mayfield has played well in Domes this season. He has over 400 yards and five touchdowns in two games. Mayfield should be a fine mid-range QB2 in Week 14.

Desmond Ridder, as the starter, has not been great for fantasy. He has been under 170 passing yards in the last two weeks and threw just two total touchdowns. The Bucs are a bottom-ten team as well against fantasy quarterbacks. Only talented fantasy quarterbacks can thrive against the Buc’s poor secondary this year. In the last five weeks, the Bucs played three below-average fantasy quarterbacks, and they all played terribly against the Bucs. Ridder has been a slightly better fantasy quarterback in home games, with eight total touchdowns over five games compared to four in six road games. I’m not expecting much from Ridder in this game since he has played poorly. He is a QB3 in Week 14.

Running Backs

For the Bucs backfield, it’s clear that Rachaad White is the only one worth talking about. He has double-digit fantasy points in seven straight games. He is scoring touchdowns and seeing work as a receiver. The Falcons allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed three running backs to run over 60 yards in the last five games. They are the only team not to allow a rushing touchdown this season. Last time, White’s rushing output was poor, but he had six receptions for 60 yards. White has shown as of late that he can produce in fantasy and be a reliable option for us. White should be a low-end RB1 in Week 14.

For the Falcons backfield, Bijan Robinson is finally being worked as a complete workhorse running back. He has seen 15-plus carries in three straight games. The Bucs were a stout team against fantasy running backs for most of the season. In the last two weeks, they have allowed an 80-yard rusher and two rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. Injuries on the defensive line have made the Bucs have holes on the defense. The last time Robinson played the Bucs, it was the game where Robinson had a headache, and he didn’t play. Robinson is way past that and should be a full go in this matchup. Robinson should be in for a full workload and finish as a low-end RB1. Tyler Allgeier seems to be splitting up the backup job with Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson played more than Allgeier in a negative game script. While I’m not interested in either one, they are low-end RB4s at best.

Pass Catchers

For the Falcons receivers, the Bucs allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to the position. The Bucs have allowed a 100-yard receiver in four of the last five games. The touchdowns have typically been high against the Bucs, but they have allowed just one in the last four weeks. The only receiver in consideration is Drake London. London has had some decent games in this season. Last time, London could put up 50 yards against the Bucs secondary. At home, there is more trust in the Falcons passing game. London is a WR4 in this matchup. He is not a sure start but could have some upside in a favorable game.

For the tight ends, the Falcons are a bottom-ten unit against the position. They have allowed four tight ends over 40 yards in the last five weeks. The yardage is there, but they haven’t given up a touchdown since week six. Cade Otton was five for 40 last time he played the Falcons. He was a surprise zero-target player last week, but normally, he can get four receptions for 45 yards in most weeks. Otton is a high-end TE2 that should get you a decent floor play. I’d start him over the Falcons tight ends.

For the Bucs receivers, the Falcons rank as a top-ten defense against the position. They have only allowed three receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. In the previous four games, they have allowed just one receiving touchdown. Mike Evans continues to dominate this season, and he had 17 fantasy points the last time he played the Falcons. Evans has averaged 82 receiving yards vs. the Falcons over 17 career games. Evans should have no issues as a WR1 in Week 14. Chris Godwin is another story, as he saw zero receptions last week. Godwin is good for about six fantasy points per game. He isn’t seeing the targets or production we are used to from him. Last time, Godwin played well against the Falcons, but he is a risky play. He should be a mid-range WR4 in Week 14.

For the tight ends, the Bucs are a decent matchup against the position. Since week eight, they have allowed three tight ends over 65 yards and a touchdown. Outside of that, it’s been very mediocre performances. Last time, Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith combined for 74 yards. Kyle Pitts has been a very average fantasy tight end this season. He hasn’t scored since week six. He is a mid-range TE2 at best in this matchup. Jonnu Smith has faded with 11 yards in the last three weeks. His snaps are down, and he no longer plays 50% of the snaps. He is outside the top 24 tight ends again.

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Soldier Field
• Weather – Cloudly
• What Vegas is saying – Line (DET -3.0) & Over/Under 42.5

Identifying the Game Script

The Lions and Bears will face off in their second of two games this season. Last time, the Lions would win that behind game over the Bears. The Lions are coming off a strong win over the Saints on the road. The Bears were on a bye last week, but the last time they played, they would win an ugly game 12-10 over the Vikings. Look for the Lions to continue doing their best on the ground and in the air. Hopefully, they can get off to a quicker start than last time. Justin Fields and the passing game should thrive in this matchup for the Bears, as the Lions have been terrible in the secondary over the previous month and a half. This should be another exciting game between two division foes.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff has been decent over his last four games. He would look better in fantasy if not for his turnover during the games. Goff gets to go up against the Bears again, where they rank as a bottom-ten unit vs. quarterbacks. In the last five weeks, they have allowed three quarterbacks with two-plus passing touchdowns, with Goff being one of them. Goff had to fight back to produce the game he did in the previous game. This feels like a game with higher scoring, with both teams going back and forth. Goff has the upside to having big games in fantasy since he has talent surrounding him. Goff should be in lineups in Week 14. He should be able to help you reach the playoffs. He is a borderline QB1.

Justin Fields hopes the bye week has helped him refocus for the back half of the season. Fields are coming into this game after a terrible outing in Week 12. He had two costly turnovers with no touchdowns. The Lions allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have allowed over 250 passing yards in three of the last five games. Fields, the last time he played the Lions, he had 100 rushing yards. Fields has not been great for most of the season. If he can find his rushing and throw the ball more efficiently, he will have a good game in Week 14. He is a borderline QB1 with some risk due to his up-and-down production, but he has upside.

Running Backs

For the Bears backfield, it could be a hot mess on Sunday. The team will have all three backs healthy and ready to go. The game script will decide how these running backs will be used. If they pull ahead again, I’d assume Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Forman will see more work. Expect Roschon Johnson to see a big role again if they fall behind. It also could be a hot-handle approach to who can perform for us in fantasy. The Lions rank as a top-ten unit against running backs. In the last five weeks, the Lions have allowed consistent yardage. It’s not breakout games, but opposing running backs average 50 yards. The Lions have also allowed five rushing touchdowns in that span. So, the Lions defense seems to be breaking down as the season goes on. Herbert should get the first touches in the offense and have a role. He would likely be a low-end RB3. Roschon Johnson will need his passing value to be successful, which puts him as a high-end RB4. The foreman will need a red zone opportunity to be successful. I’m not actively trying to start any of these running backs in Week 14 if I can.

The Lions backfield has a similar situation with two elite running backs in fantasy. It’s all about the game script for the Lions. Jahmyr Gibbs would be used more in a negative game script, while David Montgomery would be in a more favorable game script. The Bears have been a team whose rushing yards don’t match the points per game against. The Bears allow the most receiving production to running backs this season. Last time, Gibbs and Montgomery were both successful against the Bears. They both should be high-end RB2s in Week 14. They both played a significant role in this offense and were able to produce.

Pass Catchers

For the Bears receivers, the Lions rank in the bottom ten against the position. The Lions have given up seven receiving touchdowns in the last five weeks. We have seen four receivers get over 90 yards in that same span. DJ Moore had a dominant game last time vs. the Lions. He was around 90 yards and scored a touchdown. Moore has been Field’s favorite player this season and should see a high target share in this game. Moore is a borderline WR 1 in Week 14. No other receiver is worth playing this season. Darnell Mooney has moved to more to outside the top 60 receivers. His production has been minimal this year.

For the tight ends, the Lions have stepped up against position. They haven’t allowed a tight end over 30 yards in the last five weeks. Again, most of those tight ends were not elite, but Cole Kmet was in that mix. Cole Kmet had 20 yards last time they played the Lions. Kmet under Fields has been very boom or bust in fantasy. It’s primarily due to Fields’s ability to consistently make two players’ fantasy relevant. Kmet is a solid player and is likely a decent start since he’ll see five-plus targets. He isn’t a lock to have a TE1 performance, so he is a better high-end TE2.

For the Lions receivers, the Bears have been decent against the position. They have allowed just two receivers over 50 receiving yards in the last five weeks. Last time, the Lions scored twice on the Bears secondary. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a great game, especially when it was vs. the Bears. He should be able to have a repeat performance since his talent is so good. St. Brown should finish as a WR1 in Week 14. Jameson Williams has a touchdown in two of the last three games. His production has not been based on volume, which can be risky in fantasy. He was able to score last time against the Bears, but it may not be that easy this game. Williams is more of a high-end WR5. Outside of those two, no one else is worth starting in lineups, and Josh Reynolds has faded as the season has gone on.

The Bears are a fantastic match-up for the tight ends in Week 14. They have allowed four touchdowns in the last five games. The yardage has been lower, with only two tight ends over 40 yards in the span. Last time, Sam LaPorta had a poor game against the Bears offense. I don’t expect that to happen again. LaPorta is so dynamic that he is a must-start tight end. He should be able to put up better numbers against the Bears and finish as a TE1.

Indianapolis Colts vs Cincinnati Bengals

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Paycor Stadium
• Weather – Cloudy
• What Vegas is saying – Line (CIN -2.5) & Over/Under 43.5

Identifying the Game Script

These two teams have not played since the 2020 season. The Colts would win a close one, 31-27, over the Bengals. The Colts are coming off another close win in overtime over the Titans. The Bengals are coming off an impressive overtime win over the Jaguars. Look for the Colts to attack the weak Bengals defense, as they have allowed their opponents to do what they want on offense. For the Bengals, look for them to use their backfield against a bottom-five run defense in the Colts. Both teams have firepower on offense to do but also have questionable defenses. This game screams shootout and could provide a lot of fantasy-relevant players in Week 14.

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew was finally able to put up a great fantasy outing. This was his first 20-point game of the season. It helped that the game was a shootout, so Minshew had more chances in the red zone without Jonathan Taylor. I don’t fully trust Minshew, but he has had over 250 passing yards in the last two weeks. In four of the previous five games, the Bengals have allowed two touchdowns to those opposing quarterbacks. They also continue to allow high yardage, with over 250 passing yards in each of the last five games. Minshew will need to continue throwing if the run game is going to be ineffective like it was last week. Minshew has thrown a lot over the previous few weeks, so if he can keep that up, here is a good chance for him to produce in Week 14. Minshew is a mid-range QB2. I don’t think he will hurt you, but he may not help either.

Jake Browning is coming off an impressive MNF game in which he helped the Bengals win. Browning was sharp and accurate and took big risks on downfield throws. Browning has three top 36 talented receivers and a solid run game around him. It was an easier matchup than in Week 12, so Browning was able to do better. The Colts have been a tougher matchup for fantasy quarterbacks this season. They have allowed three of the last five quarterbacks to go under 200 passing yards. They have given up six touchdowns in the last five matchups. The Bengals would likely be the best team among those five teams the Colts will face against. Browning has shown that he can be a decent fantasy quarterback. He could produce as a mid-range QB2. He may have some upside as a Superflex quarterback in Week 14.

Running Backs

For the Bengals backfield, we finally saw someone else step up. Rookie Chase Brown had nine carries for 61 rushing yards. Joe Mixon had been taking the backfield to himself all season so that Brown could create problems for Mixon. The Colts allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Colts have given up an 88-yard rusher in the last three weeks. The Colts were going strong with no rushing touchdowns since week nine, but the Titans scored two last week. Joe Mixon should continue to see most of the groundwork, but if he continues to see a high target share, that will push him up the rankings. Mixon will be a mid-range RB2 in a favorable matchup. His YPC is a concern, but touchdown opportunities are there. Chase Brown enters that RB4 conversation. While it’s hard to trust one game, Brown could be a sleeper in Week 14 in a favorable matchup.

Zach Moss was a disappointment for the Colts backfield in a favorable matchup last week. He still managed to have all the touches and snaps in the backfield. The Colts clearly trust him to handle the workload. The Bengals have allowed three running backs over 60 rushing yards in the last five weeks. They also gave up five touchdowns in that span. Moss should be able to bounce back for a better game. If he continues to see most of the work, he should be a RB1 in Week 14.

Pass Catchers

For the Bengals receivers, the Colts have been an average team against the position. The Colts have allowed four receivers over 70 yards in the last five weeks. They also have given up five receiving touchdowns in the same span. Ja’Marr Chase showed that he is the guy in Cincinnati. Jake Browning was trying to target Chase as much as possible. When Chase sees double-digit targets, big production happens for the young receiver. Chase should be a WR1, but Tee Higgins should see more targets, which would take some away from Chase. He is a high-end WR2 in Week 14. Tee Higgins‘ return was decent, with three receptions for 36 yards. Higgins is talented, but can Browning keep two receivers sustainable in fantasy? The answer is probably not. Higgins is a high-end WR4 in Week 14.

Tyler Boyd could see seven targets last week but only had 30 receiving yards. Now that Higgins is back, Boyd should see fewer targets. He sits as a WR5. For the tight ends, the Colts allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to the position. They have allowed a tight end over 40 yards in three of the last five games. Despite playing low snaps, Tanner Hudson has done well for the Bengals. He has over 30 yards in four of his previous five games. He has stood out among the Bengals tight ends. If Hudson can continue to see the five targets per game he is seeing, then he will be usable in Week 14. Hudson is a low-end TE2 that could have some upside if this game turns into a shootout.

For the Colts receivers, the Bengals rank in the bottom ten against the position. They have given up some decent yardage with five receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. Michael Pittman is quietly having a fantastic season that no one is talking about. He has seven straight games over ten fantasy points and is coming off two 100-yard games. Pittman is the clear WR1 in this Colts offense. I expect him to perform well in this matchup. Pittman has entered the WR1 range in rankings. He continues to produce big fantasy numbers and sees a heavy target. Josh Downs was a disappointment in a favorable matchup last week. He saw only four targets and barely produced with the targets. Downs isn’t a safe start, but it does have an upside if given the targets. Downs is a high-end WR4.

Alec Pierce is coming off his first 100-yard game this season and his career. I’m not buying three receptions for 100 yards in Week 13 being the new norm for Pierce. He remains a WR5 unless he continues to produce. For the tight ends, the Bengals allow the second most fantasy points to the position. The Colts have not had a reliable tight end this season. Kylen Granson has flashed a few times, but you can’t trust that in a Week 14 game. Despite the good matchup, the Colts tight ends are outside the top 24.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Cleveland Browns Stadium
• Weather – Cloudy
• What Vegas is saying – Line (JAX -9.5) & Over/Under 39.5

Identifying the Game Script

The last time the Jaguars and Brown played each other was during the 2020 season. The Browns on the road would win a close one, 27-25. The Browns offense couldn’t keep up with the Rams solid offense and would lose in poor fashion. The Jaguars are coming off a tough loss to the Bengals and potentially losing their franchise quarterback. The Jaguars may need to figure out life without Trevor Lawrence, but they will focus on the run. The Browns run defense has been the weak spot among that team. The Browns seem to have found a little passing game with Joe Flacco at quarterback. We’ve seen the Jaguars secondary get beat by a backup quarterback. This could be a lower-scoring game on Sunday.

Quarterbacks

The Jaguars quarterback situation is going to be a game-time decision. It looks like Trevor Lawrence will play, but how much can we trust him in a tough matchup? The Browns allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Browns were dominant against quarterbacks in the last five weeks, but then Matthew Stafford threw up 279 yards and two touchdowns. I have concerns that Lawrence won’t be able to be as effective in this game. His mobility may be limited. I would put Lawrence as a high-end QB2 and someone I wouldn’t want to take a risk with if I didn’t have to. If he doesn’t go, CJ Beathard will start. He would be a low-end QB2 if he plays.

Joe Flacco played a solid first game with the Browns despite not playing in over a year. He has 254 passing yards, two touchdowns, and a pick. In three of the last four weeks, the Jaguars have given up over 290 passing yards to an opposing quarterback. They also have given up ten touchdowns to the last four quarterbacks. Flacco may have lost his number-one receiver in Amari Cooper, but the offense is still solid overall. In his first game at home, there should be some fantasy success. He won’t offer a rushing floor, but he should throw the ball a ton in this offense. He should be a decent low-end QB2. He may have some value in Superflex leagues in a favorable matchup. Flacco seems like he will start, but the team may elect to go Dorian Thompson-Robinson here or at least give him a few package plays. He would be a QB3 if he were to start.

Running Backs

For the Jaguars backfield, Travis Etienne was able to bounce back with a 14-point game last week. Etienne scored another touchdown to make his fantasy day. The Browns have allowed a 60-yard rusher in three straight games. They also have given up five rushing touchdowns in the last four games. The team may run the ball more to protect Lawrence in this game. Etienne does concern me with his efficiency since touchdowns have made his stats look better. Etienne is a borderline RB1 in Week 14. D’Ernest Johnson could get some work, too, in a revenge game. He has five carries in each of the last three games. He would be a low-end RB4. 

For the Browns backfield, it has been an up-and-down committee. The Jaguars defense ranks in the top ten against fantasy running backs. They have allowed three 60-yard rushers in the last five games. They allowed a rushing touchdown for the first time since week six in last week’s matchup. Jerome Ford is still the starter, but his value is better when the Browns are behind in games. Ford should only be a high-end RB3, but I don’t like his matchup. Kareem Hunt has shown that touchdowns make his fantasy day. Without a touchdown, he is, at best, an RB4 in this matchup. Neither running back, I want to start in Week 14. 

Pass Catchers

For the Jaguars receivers, the Browns allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Despite big games last week against the Rams, the Browns have allowed only three receivers over 60 yards in the previous five games. Calvin Ridley struggled in a good matchup, especially with Christian Kirk leaving early. Ridley is only a mid-range WR3 due to his quarterback situation. Zay Jones played well, with five receptions for 78 yards. He becomes a WR4 since he should start seeing a bigger target share in this game. Parker Washington stepped into the slot, and it worked well for him. He had a career-high 66 yards and scored a touchdown. I’m ranking him as a WR5 in this game. The slot receiver may be able to produce against the Browns.

For the tight ends, the Browns allow the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. In the last eight games, they have allowed just one touchdown and 156 receiving yards combined. It’s easy to say that it’s hard to be a tight end against the Browns unless you’re Mark Andrews. Evan Engram is coming off a monster fantasy game in Week 13, but it was an easy matchup. Engram should be a TE1, despite who starts at quarterback.

For the Browns receivers, the Jaguars rank in the bottom ten against the position. They have allowed six touchdowns in the last five weeks. They have allowed 100-yard receivers in back-to-back games. Amari Cooper is going to play in Week 14. He should be a WR2 in this matchup. Cooper was getting targets before leaving the game with an injury. Elijah Moore stepped up without Cooper last week and seems to have a connection with Flacco. Moore may end up breaking out in this game. He is a borderline WR3 in Week 14.

For the tight ends, the Jaguars have been an average matchup against the position this season. They have only allowed one tight end over 40 yards in the last five weeks. It was one of George Kittle’s blow-up games. Besides that, they have been solid, not allowing great games to the position. David Njoku is coming off a bad game, while Harrison Byrant had 50 yards and a touchdown. I would assume the Njoku would bounce back, but the Browns would lean on two tight end sets under Joe Flacco. Njoku is a borderline TE1 in Week 14.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Caesars Superdome
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (NO -6.0) & Over/Under 38.5

Identifying the Game Script

We have the second of two games between the Panthers and the Saints. Last time, the Saints would win a close one, 20-17 on the road. The Panthers still couldn’t get their offense going with a new coaching staff and would lose to the Bucs. The Saints are coming off a loss to the Lions as Derek Carr once again left the game with an injury. The Panthers need to find a spark on offense, as it seems it didn’t look great with the new coaching staff. Look for them to use their backfield against the Saints mediocre run defense. On the Saints side, they may be without Derek Carr, so getting their run game going will be critical. They have a good match-up against the Panthers horrible run defense. I still see messy football in this game, so it could go either way on Sunday.

Quarterbacks

Bryce Young continues to disappoint as a rookie. He is in the bottom half in all efficiency this season. He has only nine passing touchdowns and a 5.4 YPA in 2023. Young has another tough matchup against a division foe. The Saints rank in the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed three of the last five quarterbacks with two touchdown games. They have only allowed one quarterback over 220 passing yards in those previous five games. Young had his second-best game of the season against the Saints. At the same time, it was only 15 fantasy points but better than his previous five games. Young can’t be trusted with any fantasy lineup during the season. He is a QB3, and I’d consider a skill player over him in Superflex leagues.

Derek Carr looks like he is going to play Sunday. He was able to get a full practice in on Friday, so the chances of him playing are higher. The Panthers are a top-ten defense against fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed one quarterback over 200 passing yards in the last six weeks. They also have only allowed five passing touchdowns in that same span. Last time, Carr could only put up six fantasy points against the Panthers. Carr’s risk of leaving a game early puts him in that QB3 status. He would be risky to start. If Jameis Winston goes in for Carr instead, he would be a low-end QB2. He also isn’t someone I’d want to play.

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard took the lead once again in touches for the Panthers backfield. He saw 24 carries compared to Miles Sanders’ eight. The effect that Jim Caldwell has on the offense showed as he loves to give running backs big workloads. In the last five weeks, the Saints have allowed seven running backs to gain over 50 rushing yards against them. They have also allowed four rushing touchdowns. Hubbard should be a mid-range RB3. He should get 15-plus carries in this game, but the opportunity to score is minimal. The Saints also don’t give up much in the receiving game to running backs. Miles Sanders sits outside the top 50 running backs. His usage has been low, and his efficiency has been poor.

For the Saints backfield, it’s all about Alvin Kamara. He remains an elite fantasy option with double-digit points in almost every game. His rushing efficiency has been decent, but his targets and touchdowns pave the way for great fantasy finishes. I would assume he sees more work as Derek Carr is banged up. He should see 6 plus targets in this matchup. The Panthers allow the second most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed a 60-yard rusher in the last four games. They don’t allow much in the receiving game, but that shouldn’t stop Kamara from playing well. Kamara will be a RB1 in Week 14. Perhaps we will see a little more from Jamaal Williams in this game due to the favorable matchup. He could end up as a low-end RB4 in Week 14.

Pass Catchers

For the Panthers receivers, it’s going to be a tough matchup against the Saints. They allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed three receivers over 60 yards and only given up two receiving touchdowns in the last five weeks. Adam Thielen has fallen off the fantasy map with barely two games over ten fantasy points in the last six weeks. His targets are dropping, and he is no longer producing the way we saw early on. Thielen has fallen to a borderline WR3 in Week 14. Jonathan Mingo has 60 yards in back-to-back games, as it seems like the coaching staff is trying to get their young receiver the ball more. Mingo would be a high-end WR5. He is risky in a tough matchup. For the tight ends, it’s not even worth starting one in this bad passing offense despite a decent matchup. None have done anything since Hayden Hurst’s week one game.

For the Saints receivers, the Panthers rank as a top ten against the position. They have allowed just two receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They also don’t give up many touchdowns, with two in that same span. Chris Olave has four straight games over ten fantasy points, as he has been playing much better. Despite Carr’s injuries, Olave has produced. The last time he played the Panthers, Olave put up 80 yards. Since Olave is the only reliable target, he should see ten-plus targets in this matchup. He is a high-end WR2. Rashid Shaheed has not practiced this week and is questionable for Sunday. I can’t imagine that he plays. He will be a WR5 if he does. None of the other receivers are worth mentioning in this tough matchup.

For the tight ends, the Panthers rank in the top ten against the position. No tight end has crossed over 45 yards this season. They have allowed two tight ends in the last three weeks to produce 45 yards. The Panthers have also kept touchdowns to a minimum, with just three this season. Taysom Hill plays tight end but is used everywhere on the field. Hill has not practiced this week, which is a concern. If he plays, he has a low-end TE1 value. Juwan Johnson has been hot and cold since his return to the field. Johnson would likely be a mid-range TE2 with or without Hill on the field. It’s hard to trust whoever plays quarterback to get Johnson the ball.

Houston Texans vs New York Jets

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ MetLife Stadium
• Weather – Heavy Rain
• What Vegas is saying – Line (HOU -3.5) & Over/Under 33.5

Identifying the Game Script

The last time these teams faced off was during the 2021 season. The Jets would win 21-14 over the Texans on the road. The Texans are coming off a tough win over the Broncos. The Jets continue to have quarterback issues as they would lose a home to the Falcons. The Texans are in for another tough matchup against a good Jets defense. If they can do better with their run game this week, it will help benefit the backfield in Week 14. The Jets will likely have a new starter in Week 14, but I may not help the cause. This game will be closer than most people expect, and it may not have a lot of fantasy-relevant players.

Quarterbacks

CJ Stroud‘s two monster games have shadowed his other three games of decent fantasy production. In three of the last five games, Stroud has around 19 fantasy points in those games. His fantasy has been down due to turnovers or tough defenses. Meanwhile, Stroud will get a tough defense against the Jets in Week 14. The Jets allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Since week eight, the Jets have allowed just one quarterback to do well: Josh Allen in Week 11. In those five other games, they have allowed three passing touchdowns and not a single one over 250 passing yards. It will be a tough matchup for Stroud, especially losing Tank Dell. Stroud has shown us that he is very talented and still has good weapons around him. He may not have an upside in a tough matchup, but he should be a solid low-end QB1 in Week 14.

Zach Wilson is back as the starting quarterback for the New York Jets, and sadly, he may be their best option. We know that Wilson can only be trusted as a QB3 in fantasy. He was averaging 12 fantasy points per game this season. His best trait is that he gave Garrett Wilson a little consistent fantasy value. While the Texans are a bottom-ten unit against fantasy quarterbacks, the trust level for Wilson is not there. This would be a random game that he goes off for 20 fantasy points, but it’s way too risky to trust. He is a QB3 in Week 14.

Running Backs

We saw more of a split for the Texans backfield with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary. Dare Ogunbowale even saw some work in the offense. The Jets run defense ranks in the bottom ten against running backs. They have allowed three running backs to produce over 70 rushing yards. The Jets have not allowed just five rushing touchdowns this season. This game calls for heavy rain, so expect to see more of the ground game. It’s hard to tell who will lead this backfield in Week 14. Pierce led the team in carries but ran for a 2.7 YPC. Pierce fits the more ground-and-pound approach in a rain game. He is a low-end RB3. Singletary was doing so well, so I’m not sure why the Texans moved away from him. He will have a role and will see the passing work. He is also a low-end RB3. I’m not overly thrilled to play either one if I can.

For the Jets backfield, Breece Hall is dealing with an injury. He had a limited practice on Friday, so it looks like he will play. The Texans have allowed two running backs over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They have held three strong fantasy running backs to zero touchdowns in the previous three weeks. Breece Hall continues to average a 2.2 YPC over the last six games. He still has more receiving yards than rushing yards in those last six weeks. If he is banged up, we could see him seeing fewer touches than normal. He would likely keep his passing value, but the carries could drop. He is a mid-range RB2 in Week 14. Dalvin Cook could benefit with more carries if Hall is limited. He saw his most carries since week one. He is likely an RB4 in Week 14. If Hall were to miss, Cook would be a borderline RB2.

Pass Catchers

For the Texans receivers, they have the hardest matchup among receivers this weekend. The Jets allow the fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed five receivers over 75 yards in the last five weeks. The Jets remain strong against touchdowns, with only three all season. Nico Collins exploded in Week 13 for 191 yards and touchdowns, with Tank Dell leaving early. Now that he is out for the season, Collins is the true WR1 on the team. It won’t be an easy matchup, especially if it’s a rainy game. He should see seven-plus targets in this game. He’ll finish as a mid-range WR2. Noah Brown will be the new number two in the offense. He was quiet last week despite playing a full snap count. He would be more of a low-end WR4 in a tough matchup. He needs to see more targets to be successful.

I wouldn’t trust Bob Woods or John Metchie until we saw how they are involved in this game. For the tight ends, Dalton Schultz looks likely to miss week 14 as he has not practiced this week. Brevin Jordan would be the starter again. He had a solid week with 60 yards in Week 13. The Jets defense ranks in the bottom ten in scoring against fantasy tight ends this season. It’s not the yardage they give up but seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends. They have allowed 40 yards in two of the last three games to a tight end. Jordan could continue to be a big part of this offense with Tank Dell gone for the season. You should play Jordan as a high-end TE2 in Week 14.

For the Jets receivers, the Texans defense has given up more production to the position in recent weeks. They have given up seven receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. Garrett Wilson should have a tiny bump with Zach Wilson back at quarterback. He was more consistent with Wilson, averaging around 11 points a game. While Wilson’s upside is capped, he can provide a better floor game than the last few weeks. Wilson should be a solid mid-range WR3. I’m not going to trust Xavier Gipson‘s 70-yard game from Week 13. He needs to show it again before he enters into the top 60 receivers.

For the tight ends, the Texans also rank in the bottom ten this season for the position. They have allowed three tight ends over 40 yards in the last three weeks. It has been the high yardage that has kept them in the bottom ten in the league. They have only allowed four touchdowns but none in the last five weeks. Tyler Conklin has been below average without Zach Wilson on the field, which is funny. With Wilson, he was seeing over 40 yards in most games. Conklin should be a low-end TE2 with a better floor but not much upside.

Los Angeles Rams vs Baltimore Ravens

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ M&T Bank Stadium
• Weather – Rain Day
• What Vegas is saying – Line (BAL -7.5) & Over/Under 39.5

Identifying the Game Script

The last time the Rams would play the Ravens was during the 2022 season. The Rams would win a close one, 20-19, over the Ravens. The Rams started getting hot as they steamrolled the Browns at home. The Ravens were on a bye last week but would win a close game over the Chargers in Week 12. The Rams won’t have an easy matchup against the Ravens. The best things for the Rams will be to get the ball to their stars and continue to hand the ball off to Kyren Williams in this game. The Ravens will attack the Rams secondary to give us fantasy production. The tight end position will have a prime matchup against this Rams defense. This should be a solid fantasy game for both teams at the end.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford is coming off back-to-back amazing fantasy outings. Since the return of Kyren Williams, Stafford has seven passing touchdowns in two games. In the first nine games, he only had nine passing touchdowns. Whatever Stafford started doing worked, but he comes into another tough matchup in Week 14. The Ravens allow the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have kept the last five quarterbacks under 220 passing yards. They also have only given up six passing touchdowns in those five outings. You could argue that the Ravens haven’t played a complete offense like the Rams this year. Stafford is a decent mid-range QB2. It’s a tough matchup, but he has the weapons and the run game to succeed in fantasy.

Lamar Jackson had a much-needed bye week. Jackson has struggled in four of the last five games. He has been under 17 fantasy points in those games. It’s not that he has been terrible, but more of the fact the offense is using their running backs around the red zone, leaving fewer touchdowns for Jackson. The Rams have allowed 230 passing yards to each of the last five quarterbacks. We’ve seen decent quarterbacks play most of those quarterbacks in those games. The only thing the Rams struggled with in the early season has been mobile quarterbacks. They allowed 50 yards to Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson in September. Jackson will likely take advantage of that opportunity against the Rams. He should be able to throw as his pass catchers get much-needed rest over the bye week. Look for Jackson to finish as a QB1 in Week 14.

Running Backs

For the Rams backfield, Kyren Williams continues to be a breakout player in fantasy. Since his return to the field, he has had over 300 all-purpose yards in the last two games. This past week, we saw him regain the full workload for the offense. The Ravens rank in the top ten against fantasy running backs. They have allowed three running backs over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They have allowed receiving value to pass-catching backs, which is a bonus for Williams. Williams should continue to see the full workload in this matchup and be an RB1 in Week 14. If Royce Freeman is going to see minimal carries, he’ll be outside the top 50 in Week 14.

For the Ravens backfield, it’s still somewhat of a three-man committee. Gus Edwards is a two-down back who sees all the red zone work and scoring touchdowns. Keaton Mitchell is the lightning-fast rookie running back in the offense. Justice Hill is there, too. The Rams rank in the top ten against running backs this season. They have allowed one running back over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They also have given up just one rushing touchdown during the time. Despite the tough matchup, Edwards should see the early down work and be given a chance to score in this game. He is a RB3 in Week 14. Mitchell has more upside, but his floor could be bad. He is also an RB3 in this game but has more upside than Edwards.

Pass Catchers

For the Rams receivers, the Ravens allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp lead this receiver group in fantasy. Nacua has been the better of the two, with two more games over ten fantasy points than Kupp in the last six weeks. Nacua has my vote as the better receiver in this matchup. I am concerned about how tough the Ravne secondary is, and we could see lower numbers from both receivers. They both should see six-plus targets, but the Rams must get creative in getting them the ball. Nacua is a low-end WR2, and Kupp is a high-end WR3 in Week 14. Tyler Higbee has not practiced this week and should miss this game in Week 14. None of the backups have much value, especially with the Ravens being a top-ten unit against tight ends this season.  

For the Ravens receivers, the Rams are a pretty good secondary this season. They have allowed four receivers over 60 yards in the last four weeks. Zay Flowers is coming off his best game of the season with two touchdowns. Flowers receiving yardage was low, and it has been all season. He is a decent fantasy receiver but continues to be nothing more than a low-end WR3 in matchups. Flower would be that in this game. Odell Beckham has double-digit fantasy points in three of the last four games. His snaps are a concern since he is playing less than 50%. Hopefully, Odell is healthy, and more snaps will come his way. He is a WR4 in Week 14.

For the tight ends, the Rams allow the third most fantasy points per game to the position. They have allowed four tight ends over 40 yards in the last five weeks. The Rams have given up some big production to the position all season. Isaiah Likely had a solid first game as the starter, with four receptions for 40 yards. Likely should continue to be a big piece of the offense as he is a defensive mismatch for the offense. He should be in that five to seven target range and have a chance to finish as a low-end TE1 in Week 14.

Minnesota Vikings vs Las Vegas Raiders

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 4:05 p.m. @ Allegiant Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (MIN -3.0) & Over/Under 40.5

Identifying the Game Script

It’s been a while since the Vikings and the Raiders have played each other. In the 2019 season, the Vikings would win in a blowout 34-14 over the Raiders. The Vikings were on a much-needed bye week, as their offense looked horrible on MNF in Week 12. The Raiders looked much better recently but couldn’t get the job done against the Chiefs. Depending on who plays quarterbacks, the Vikings will likely want to take advantage of the Raider’s poor run defense with their backfield. The passing attack will get a much-needed rescue from Justin Jefferson, who should return this week. It will be necessary for the Raiders to continue relying on their stars, especially in the passing game. This game will likely be very close until the end.

Quarterbacks

Joshua Dobbs stays as the Vikings starter for at least one more week. Dobbs had a much-needed bye week after throwing four picks in Week 12. Dobbs left a bad taste in our mouths in that game, but he has been a solid quarterback. Before that game, he had 18-plus fantasy points in his three starts. He showed off a rushing floor, averaging 40 yards and a touchdown per game. The Raiders have had some tough offenses they have played the last two weeks with, allowing over 300 yards and two touchdowns in both games. Dobbs will have Justin Jefferson back in the lineups. It will only help his play. Dobbs has high-end QB2 value in this matchup. His rushing floor may keep his fantasy going if he doesn’t turn the ball over.  

Aidan O’Connell is coming off a bye, but he put up the best game of his rookie career before that. He had 248 yards with a touchdown, and he didn’t turn the ball over against the Chiefs. The rookie will come into another tough matchup against the Vikings. They have given up five passing touchdowns in the last five games. The yardage has been decent, as the previous five quarterbacks have averaged around 230 passing yards. I like O’Connell’s chances in Superflex leagues at home. He has two good weapons in the passing game that should make his day more manageable and a strong run game. He may not have upside, but he could provide a solid floor. O’Connell is a low-end QB2 who could get you 15-16 fantasy points.

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison continues to be inefficient, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see if Ty Chandler gets more work. The Raiders rank in the bottom ten giving up fantasy points to running backs. They have allowed an 80-yard rusher in three of the last five games. The Raiders have cleaned up their run defense after allowing rushing touchdowns in the early season. In the previous four weeks, they have allowed just two. Mattison is one of two running backs that hasn’t scored yet. He is running under 4.0 YPC this season. He is, at best, a borderline RB2 in Week 14. His workload is concerning, but he has a great matchup. Ty Chandler should get more work in this matchup, but we said that in Week 12. He is an RB4 at best in this game. 

For the Raiders backfield, Josh Jacobs continues to see all the work. He has 20 carries in three of the last four games. The Vikings allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have not allowed a running back over 55 yards in the last five games, with only one rushing touchdown given up. This isn’t a game I’d expect the Vikings to be way ahead in, so Jacobs will continue to see his usage here. I’d rank him as a low-end RB1 in Week 14. No other running backs have value in this backfield. 

Pass Catchers

For the Vikings receivers, the Raiders have allowed three straight games of a 90-yard receiver. The Raiders are an average matchup for this team, but one receiver should be able to produce. Justin Jefferson returns to lineups in Week 14. My only concern is that he hasn’t worked with Joshua Dobbs yet, so there could be some growing pains. His talent is too good, so he should be ranked as a WR1. I’d expect him to see seven-plus targets in this first game. Jordan Addison may benefit from Jefferson returning in this game. Addison no longer has to be the WR1 for the team. He can go back under the radar and produce like he was in the early part of the season. He hasn’t done all that well with Dobbs. Addison should be a mid-range WR4 in Week 14. KJ Osborn will fall outside the top 60 with Jefferson back in the lineup.

In recent weeks, the Raiders have allowed some big yardage for the tight ends. They have allowed three tight ends over 50 yards in three of the last five weeks. TJ Hockenson has been great without Justin Jefferson on the field. He averaged almost four fantasy points more per game without Jefferson on the field. I have some concerns that Joshua Dobbs can’t keep all these players fantasy relevant every week. He’ll likely see six targets and be able to give us a TE1 week in fantasy.

For the Raiders receivers, the Vikings are a decent matchup as well. They have allowed six receivers over 60 yards, but the production has been average. The receiver’s value will be solely based on whether the team wants to feed Devante Adams. When he is fed targets, he can produce high fantasy numbers. The rest of the receivers fall out in that case, like Jakobi Meyers. If the targets are more spread around, then both will be able to be produced. The run game has a tough matchup, so both receivers could produce in Week 14. Adams should be a high-end WR2 with some upside if he sees double-digit targets. Meyers is a mid-range WR3, but he does come with some risk if he doesn’t see targets.

For the tight ends, the Vikings have allowed some solid games to opposing tight ends. They have allowed three tight ends over 40 yards in the last five weeks. A touchdown won’t come easy, as they have allowed just one touchdown since week six. Michael Mayer isn’t producing like some of his fellow draftmates, but he still has a chance to shine in fantasy. Coming off a bye week, I wonder if they will get Mayer more involved and continue to evaluate their youth, with the season likely out of reach. It is still hard to trust Mayer, so he is outside my top 24 tight ends.

Seattle Seahawks vs San Fran 49ers

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 4:05 p.m. @ Levi’s Stadium
• Weather – Clear Evening
• What Vegas is saying – Line (SEA -13.0) & Over/Under 46.5

Identifying the Game Script

We are getting a quick rematch between the Seahawks and the 49ers. They last two weeks ago on Thanksgiving, as the 49ers would win big on the road. Seattle is coming off a tough loss to the Cowboys, as it seems like they figured out their offense. The 49ers would shock a lot of people and dominate the Eagles on the road for a win. For the Seahawks, it’s another tough matchup, and they should hope to build off last week’s game rather than have a repeat performance of Thanksgiving. The best would be to get their receiver in space and allow them to produce in this game. For the 49ers, just give the ball to CMC and let Brocky Purdy do what he does. We are hopeful for a better game this time, but it may not happen.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith is coming off the best game of the season and maybe his entire career. Smith looked great getting the ball to the DK Metcalf and making plays with his arm. Despite his injury two weeks ago, Smith looked confident on the field against a solid defense. My issue is that two weeks ago against the 49ers, Smith looked more like the former 2013 quarterback bust with seven fantasy points. The offense changed as Smith got the ball out of his hands with quick plays and screens. That is what they need to do against the 49ers this week. The 49ers allow the 3rd fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Since coming off their bye week, the 49ers have allowed two touchdown passes. They have allowed two of four quarterbacks to pass over 260 yards. For Smith to succeed, he must get the ball out quickly and let the receivers do all the work. I can’t promise he will repeat his Week 13 numbers, but he should be a decent mid-range QB2 in Week 14.

Brock Purdy has been on fire since the 49ers bye week. He has three of the last five games with 300 passing yards and three-plus touchdowns. He looks like he is on a mission to prove something. Unfortunately, his game during that stretch, he finished under ten, and it was against the Seahawks. It wasn’t that he had a bad game, but CMC did have 114 yards and two touchdowns. There wasn’t much for Purdy to do against them. It’s tough to rank Purdy since we aren’t sure which Seattle team will show up. If the game turns out for how Seattle played in Week 13, Purdy has significant value, but if it’s Week 12, it’s just the CMC show again. I’d still rank Purdy as a low-end QB1, as this is reason for concern. In Week 14, you take that chance that Purdy can throw up 250 yards and touchdowns for your lineups.

Running Backs

Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet practiced in full on Friday. That makes me think that both will be active in this game. Unfortunately, that leads to another tough matchup on the road. The 49ers allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Last time, Charbonnet finished with 47 yards rushing against the 49ers. If both running backs play, it will lower their values in this game. I assume Walker gets the starting gig back while Charbonnet handles the passing-down role. Walker would be a high-end RB3 in this matchup, while Charbonnet is a borderline RB3. They both will likely not be great in fantasy lineups. 

For the 49ers backfield, Christian McCaffrey is an absolute beast in fantasy. Last time, Seattle allowed CMC to score 28 fantasy points on the road. He is at home this time, so he should be an RB1 in Week 14. There isn’t much to say about the backups. With Elijah Mitchell likely out, Jordan Mason may have deep league value.

Pass Catchers

For the Seattle receivers, the 49ers should be a good matchup for this group. They have allowed some decent yardage to opposing receivers over the last five weeks. Last time, this group was all held under 45 receiving yards. DK Metcalf is coming off an absolute monster of a game against a great secondary. I assume we see a better version of this Seattle passing attack than two weeks ago. Metcalf has seen eight-plus targets over the last four weeks. He should be able to put up decent WR2 numbers this time around. Tyler Lockett has been under ten fantasy points in the previous three weeks. His season has only given us a few solid games. I have concerns with JSN emerging that Lockett will fade more. He is a mid-range WR4 in Week 14.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to put up decent fantasy numbers since Seattle’s week six bye. He has almost 40 yards in seven straights. I’d expect the Seahawks to play catch-up, allowing JSN to see the field more. He is a high-end WR4 in this matchup. The 49ers allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Seattle has gone with a three-man committee still. No one has stood out this season. They are all outside the top 24.

For the 49ers receivers, Seattle ranks in the bottom ten in stopping the position. In the last three weeks, they have allowed a receiver to gain 70 yards and a touchdown. Last time, Brandon Aiyuk was about to put up at least ten fantasy points, but that was thanks to a touchdown he caught. He has four straight games with a touchdown. He should be a solid high-end WR2, but the run game could steal more of the touchdown opportunity in this game. Deebo Samuel is coming off a fantastic game with 138 yards and two touchdowns. Samuel has been more productive since the 49ers bye week and has three games over ten fantasy points. He should continue to be featured in this offense. He is a high-end WR2 as well.

For the tight ends, Seattle has allowed many good tight ends to produce against them. George Kittle wasn’t one of them that did. He only had three receptions for 19 yards. No, it’s not his fault since you can run on Seattle, and that’s what the 49ers did. Kittle has always been a boom/bust tight end in fantasy football. I don’t see the 49ers needing to use Kittle much, as this game should be out of hand early. Kittle is still a TE1 since his upside is nuts, but this could easily be a game where he has a quiet day. 

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 4:25 p.m. @ GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Weather – Clear Evening
• What Vegas is saying – Line (KC -1.0) & Over/Under 48.5

Identifying the Game Script

We get another great matchup between the Bills and the Chiefs. They played last season, where the Bills won 24-20 on the road in Kansas City. The Bills were on a much-needed bye week, coming off a tough loss to the Eagles in Week 12. The Bills will look to play more efficiently on offense and try to get their run game going. It’s mainly on Josh Allen to provide fantasy value for the offense. They should look to get Stefon Diggs the ball as much as possible. The Chiefs need to find some rhythm on the offense, especially in the passing game. It may be time to focus on just a few pass catchers and get them to the ball. This should be a high-scoring game in Kansas City for Week 14.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen has been fantastic for fantasy despite the Bill’s downward spiral for the playoffs. He has just one game under 24 fantasy points in the last six weeks. He continues to throw for big yardage and has nine rushing touchdowns. The Chiefs are a top-ten defense against fantasy quarterbacks this year. They had some key injuries in Week 13 that showed weakness. For the most part, the Chiefs have done well locking up fantasy quarterbacks, but we saw Jordan Love go for 250 passing yards and three touchdowns against them. The Chiefs also play worse on the road than at home, so that did take effect. Josh Allen finds ways to produce even in tough matchups. He should be a QB1 in Week 14.

Patrick Mahomes has been a real concern in fantasy football, in my opinion. In Mahome’s last five games, he has averaged 222 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception and finishes with 17 fantasy points. Those numbers don’t even scream QB1 status. There is hope of him bouncing back for us in fantasy. He is a better quarterback at home. He averages two touchdowns per game at home compared to one touchdown and interception in road games. The Bills have been beaten down by opposing quarterbacks with 12 touchdowns in the last five weeks. They have been up and down with their yardage against the Bulls, but the touchdowns are consistent. I think Mahomes continues to be a guy you have to start since this game should be higher scoring. Mahomes should bounce back in a big way and finish as a QB1 in Week 14.

Running Backs

For the Bills backfield, a committee approach is happening. James Cook is seeing much of the backfield, especially in the receiving game, but his snaps are low. The Chiefs have been a favorable matchup for fantasy running backs. They have allowed a running back to rush over 75 yards in six straight games. The Chiefs also have allowed four touchdowns in that span. James Cook should be in for a big game, especially if this game turns into a shootout. Cook has immense value for fantasy as a pass catcher. Cook should be an RB1 in Week 14. Latavius Murray has seen some decent work in the offense at times. In this favorable matchup, expect Murray to have a chance to see a touchdown in this game. He is a RB4 in Week 14.

There will be no Isiah Pacheco in Week 14 for the Chiefs backfield. He is dealing with a shoulder injury. Reports are that Clyde Edwards-Helaire will take up the RB1 duties, and Jerick McKinnon will continue with his role. The Bills have stepped up their run game recently. They have allowed just two running backs over 40 yards. CEH saw 15 carries in week three when he finished with over ten points. There was a reason why CEH didn’t hold on to his starting job. He should be able to do well in this game and finish as an RB3. McKinnon’s role will be valuable as the Bills give up receiving numbers to backs. McKinnon has value as a high-end RB4 if he can see targets in this game.

Pass Catchers

The Chiefs have not been as good in the secondary for the Bills receivers. They have allowed six receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. In that same time, they gave up six touchdowns to a receiver. We are looking for Stefon Diggs to bounce back to an elite level in this matchup. He should continue to see a high target share in this matchup. He is a low-end WR1 in Week 14. Gabe Davis in Week 14 just feels like a bad day. We’ve seen Davis continue to be that boom/bust type of receiver in fantasy. If Davis can do what Christian Watson did a week ago to the Chiefs, he may have a good day. He remains in that WR3 value. Khalil Shakir’s value may drop with a potential Dawson Knox return. If that happens, Shakir sits as a low-end WR5. If he doesn’t play, then he jumps to low-end WR4 value.

At the tight end position, we could be getting Dawson Knox back on the field. That could spell trouble in Week 14 for Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid averaged 32 receiving yards and had zero touchdowns with Knox on the field. Without Knox, Kincaid averaged 56 yards and scored two touchdowns. If Knox returns, that could limit Kincaid’s value. I assume Knox won’t see the full workload in his first game back. The Chiefs have been a top-ten unit against tight ends this season. They haven’t allowed a tight end over 40 yards in the last six games. They are a tough team to use a tight end against. Kincaid should still be able to produce in this high-scoring game. He is a low-end TE1 in Week 14. Knox would be outside the top 24 in his first game back.

For the Chiefs receivers, the Bills once again rank inside the top ten against the position. They have allowed only two receivers to gain over 50 yards in the last five weeks. They have allowed four touchdowns in the previous two games. The only Chiefs receiver worth starting is Rashee Rice. He has 19 targets over the last two games. He is becoming the second option on the team now. Rice sits as a high-end WR3 in Week 14. None of the other receivers are worth starting. I’d rank them all outside the top 60 in this game. For the tight ends, the Bills are a top-ten team against the position. They have allowed just one tight end over 40 yards in the last five games. Travis Kelce will be featured, so I’m not worried about him. He is a TE1 in Week 14.

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 4:25 p.m. @ SoFi Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (LAC -2.5) & Over/Under 43.5

Identifying the Game Script

This is the first matchup of 2023 between the Broncos and the Chargers. Last time, the Broncos would win at home 31-28 over the Chargers. Their average combined score over the last five games has been 43.4 points. The Broncos have been red hot but are coming off a tough loss to the Texans. The Chargers would finally break a losing streak, but nothing to brag about with a 6-0 win. For the Broncos, they will look to take advantage in the passing game, as the Chargers’ secondary has been awful this season. Russell Wilson and his receivers should be in for a good day. The Chargers need to figure out their run game, and they have a fantastic matchup against the Broncos. This game should be high-scoring and a lot of fun for fantasy.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson has been under 20 fantasy points in the last three games. Wilson is a tough fantasy quarterback to pinpoint. He has under 200 passing yards in seven of his previous eight games. He will pop up for random two-plus touchdown games and, in the last two weeks, has had success with two rushing touchdowns. The Chargers allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. While the Chargers have been better over the last two games vs. quarterbacks, they are still an overall bad secondary. From weeks one to 11, they did allow every quarterback to throw for at least 230 passing yards. They played a run against Lamar Jackson and Bailey Zappe in the last two weeks. Wilson should be able to bounce back to better fantasy numbers in Week 14. I know it hasn’t been pretty with Wilson, but 190 yards and two touchdowns is possible. I have Russell Wilson as a high-end QB2 in Week 14.

Justin Herbert has been a letdown the last two weeks. To get in-depth, Herbert has been under 16 fantasy points in four of the previous seven games. It’s clear that Herbert needs more weapons, and the run-get has been no help for him. The Broncos have been very good against fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed four touchdown passes in the last five weeks. In that same time, they have only allowed one quarterback over 250 passing yards. Herbert has averaged 262 and a touchdown in six career games. Herbert doesn’t give me full confidence, but at least they are playing at home, which is a bonus. Herbert should be able to put 18 fantasy points and potential with his upside. This game is likely a do-or-die moment for the coaching staff, so they will bring it.

Running Backs

For the Broncos backfield, Javonte Williams has been a consistent fantasy option. He has eight fantasy points in back-to-back games. He hasn’t been great, but not bad either. The Chargers have allowed two running backs over 65 yards in the last five weeks. Outside the game against the Lions, they haven’t allowed a touchdown to an opposing running back. Williams should be fine as a low-end RB2. I’m not expecting the world from him, but he should put up decent numbers. Samaje Perine has some RB4 potential if he can see some targets in the offense. The Chargers gave up production in the passing game to running backs this year.

We could see less Austin Ekeler and more Joshua Kelley for the Chargers backfield. I know the Chargers are not happy with their run game this season. Ekeler has had terrible the last four weeks with poor efficiency. The Broncos allow the most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed four running backs over 60 yards in the last five weeks but with minimum touchdowns. They haven’t allowed a ton of volume in the receiving game. Ekeler is a risky star player. He isn’t running well or seeing the targets in the passing game. He is a borderline line RB1 in this matchup. We have to assume a bounceback is coming. Joshua Kelley enters in as that RB4. He could be seeing more carries, but to how many, we don’t know.

Pass Catchers

For the Broncos receivers, the Chargers allow the third most fantasy points per game to the position. In recent weeks, they have only allowed four receivers over 60 yards and four touchdowns. Courtland Sutton has been the only consistent receiver for the Broncos in fantasy. He has double-digit fantasy points in three of the last four games. He has been a touchdown machine with eight this season. He sits as a borderline WR2 in Week 14. Jerry Jeudy has been tough to play this season, with under ten fantasy points in four straight games. Despite this being a favorable matchup, he should be a WR4 in this game. For the tight ends, the Chargers have a lot of yardage to oppose tight ends. They allowed three tight ends to produce well over 40 yards in three of the last five games. The touchdowns don’t come easy, with only three on the season. Despite the good matchup, it’s hard to trust any of the Broncos tight ends for Week 14. They are all outside the top 24 tight ends.

For the Chargers receivers, the Broncos rank in the top ten against the position. Since week seven, they have allowed only one receiver over 60 yards. Keenan Allen continues to be a solid fantasy receiver this season. Despite the difficult matchup, he should be fine. Allen has averaged 55 yards in 14 games against the Broncos. He should be a high-end WR2. Josh Palmer is out, so Quentin Johnston will get one more shot to do something. He produced 50 yards last week, but that’s not enough to trust him. He is more of a WR5, and you are hoping for a big play.

For the tight ends, the Broncos have allowed the most fantasy points per game to the position. They have allowed 50 yards to five straight tight ends. Gerald Everett is coming off back-to-back solid games with 40 yards. Everett has been playing better without a second receiver. If there is no Joshua Palmer, Everett should continue to see a solid target share and be able to produce in this game. Everett is a TE1 in Week 14.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

Details of the Script

• SNF – 8:20 p.m. @ AT&T Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (DAL -3.5) & Over/Under 51.5

Identifying the Game Script

This is going to be a fantastic matchup in Week 14. The Eagles and the Cowboys are playing in their second game of the season. Last time, the Eagles would win at home 28-23. The Eagles are looking to rebound after a bad loss at home to the 49ers. The Cowboys needed their offense to play hot on TNF to get a high-scoring win over the Seahawks. The Eagles played well last time they faced the Cowboys, but if they follow the same model that Seattle did last week, they should succeed. The Cowboys need to continue to air the ball, and fantasy points will fall for them. The Eagles secondary continues to get worse. This should be an exciting SNF game in Week 14 for fantasy.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts is a cheat code where you don’t have to worry about his production. Whether it’s blowouts for the Eagles or the opposing team, Jalen Hurts knows how to put up fantasy points. Hurts averages two and a half touchdowns per game and shows off a solid rushing floor. The Cowboys have allowed back-to-back 300-yard passers and let Geno Smith come alive in Week 13. They also have allowed three of the last five quarterbacks to throw at least two passing touchdowns. Hurts put up 29 fantasy points the last time he played the Cowboys. There is no doubt that he finishes as a QB1 in Week 14.

Dak Prescott has been on fire in fantasy football. He has been over 30 fantasy points in five of the last six games. He has been playing at an elite level, and the offense is putting up crazy points. He gets a fantastic matchup against the Eagles, who allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The last time he played the Eagles, he put up almost 400 passing yards and three touchdowns. Prescott should have no issues in lineups for Week 14 in a favorable game at home.

Running Backs

For the Eagles backfield, D’Andre Swift saw his worst game of the season since week one. The Eagles were falling behind in their last game, which limited Swift from seeing touches. It resulted in quicker offensive drives, and Kenny Gainwell got into the action. The Cowboys rank as a top-ten unit against fantasy running backs. They have allowed just one running back over 60 rushing yards in the last five games. Last time, Swift managed 73 all-purpose yards in a shoot-out game. Swift can be a concern as this game should follow the same flow as the last time they played. Swift will see around 12 touches in this game, at least, but he needs the Eagles to win early. He is a borderline RB2 in Week 14. These Eagles don’t look in sync right now. Kenny Gainwell would have some value as a low-end RB4. If the Eagles are behind, he may have some targets coming his way.

For the Cowboys backfield, Tony Pollard has looked better in recent weeks. He has three straight games with double-digit fantasy points. The big reason for his recent success has been his ability to score rushing touchdowns. The touchdowns make Pollard look much better in fantasy since his production is still average. The Eagles allow the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. The Eagles have allowed an 80-plus-yard rusher in the last three weeks. Last time, Pollard was able to put up 50 rushing yards. If Pollard doesn’t score, this fantasy day becomes more average. He needs a touchdown or more receiving work on the offense. He is a high-end RB2 in Week 14. Rico Dowdle has seen some work more recently in fantasy. Dowdle has a great chance to score a touchdown in any game. He has some low-end RB4 value in Week 14. 

Pass Catchers

For the Eagles receivers, the Cowboys rank in the top ten against the position. The Cowboys are tough, but they have allowed a 100-yard receiver in the last two games. Last time, AJ brown and Devonta Smith combined four 100 receiving yards. We may be able to see more out of them in this matchup. AJ Brown was able to bounce back last week with 100 yards. Brown may have had a down game the last time he played the Cowboys, but his talent will break off. Brown is very talented, and he should be fed in this game. DeVonta Smith could have some issues with Dallas Goedert back on the field. Smith’s best stretch of games did come with Goedert off the field. Smith should see a solid target share, but it’s limited with Goedert back. Smith is more of a mid-range WR2 in Week 14. 

For the tight end position, Dallas Goedert looks ready to come back. He has been practicing in full all week. The Cowboys have been a lenient team against fantasy tight ends this season. Since week five, they have allowed six receiving touchdowns and four tight ends over 40 yards. They have allowed every opposing tight end at least 20 yards in the span. Goedert coming off his ankle injury does make it risky for him to return to form in one game. The last time he played the Cowboys, they had 50 yards in that game. This game should be a high-scoring game on primetime. Goedert should return to a mid-range TE1 and be able to produce in Week 14. 

For the Cowboys receivers, the Eagles allow the most fantasy points per game to the position. In the last five weeks, they have allowed a 75-yard receiver. Since week eight, the Eagles have allowed 12 receiving touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb has been on fire in fantasy and doesn’t seem to be able to be stopped. He has 100 yards in four of his last six games. Lamb was amazing the last time he played the Eagles, and he should be able to do that again. Lamb is a WR1 in Week 14. Brandin Cooks has played so well since that matchup against the Eagles last time. He had seven yards last time, then over the next four games, he had 358 yards. Cooks will look to bounce back and have a better game against the Eagles. Cooks is a high-end WR3 in Week 14. Neither Michael Gallup nor Jalen Tolbert are impressive in games and should be outside the top 60. 

For the tight end position, the Eagles rank in the bottom ten against tight ends this season. In the last five weeks, they have allowed all the opposing tight ends over 35 receiving yards. They also allowed three receiving touchdowns in that span. Last time, Jake Ferguson put up 91 yards and a touchdown. Ferguson has been a little hot and cold in fantasy, but when he is hot, he produces. I expect Ferguson to be heavily involved and have another elite fantasy performance in Week 14. Ferguson will be a TE1 in this matchup.