Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Details of the Script

• MNF – 8:15 p.m. @ EverBank Stadium
• Weather – Cloudy
• What Vegas is saying – Line (JAX -9.5) & Over/Under 39.5

Identifying the Game Script

The Jaguars and the Bengals haven’t played each other since the 2021 season. The Bengals would win at home over the Jaguars 24-21. The Bengals are coming off a loss to the Steelers, as their offense looked bad without Joe Borrow. The Jaguars won a big game on the road against a tough division for the Texans. The Bengals will need to find a way to get their passing game going, as they have a favorable matchup against the Jaguars secondary. For the Jaguars, the Bengals defense has gotten worse as the season has progressed, but look for Evan Engram to stand out on Monday. The Jaguars will likely show up at home on a primetime game to show they belong among the elite teams in the AFC.

Quarterbacks

Jake Browning wasn’t terrible last week in his first start, as he had a tough matchup with the Steelers. He threw for 227 yards and a touchdown, plus an interception. Clearly, the offense couldn’t push the ball downfield like with Joe Burrow. Browning will have a much easier matchup in Jacksonville. The Jaguars allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to fantasy quarterbacks. In the last three weeks, the Jaguars have allowed a ton of production to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed 300 passing yards in two of the last three games. The Jaguars have allowed at least two passing touchdowns to the previous three quarterbacks. One of those quarterbacks was Will Levis, which is more to Browning’s talent level. Browning will get Tee Higgins back, which should continue to help the passing game. Browning is best as a low-end QB2 in Week 13.

Trevor Lawrence is coming off back-to-back great games. While Lawrence is throwing better, with over 260 yards in both games, he also has three rushing touchdowns. Whatever the Jaguars said to the offense after that 49ers game lit a spark in their play. The Bengals do allow quarterbacks to gain passing yardage this season. They have allowed at least 250 passing yards in six straight weeks. They don’t allow passing touchdowns, with only five in the last six weeks. They have only allowed two quarterbacks to throw for two passing touchdowns this season. I do expect these Jaguars to show up on Monday. Lawrence should be in for a big week, as he finishes as a QB1 in Week 13.

Running Backs

It’s been all about Joe Mixon this season for the Bengals backfield. He continues to play most of the snaps and see all the carries and targets in the backfield. The backups have combined for just three touches in the last three weeks. Mixon is a true workhorse back for the Bengals. The Jaguars will be tough for Mixon as they allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. In the last five weeks, they have allowed just two running backs over 40 rushing yards. They have not allowed a running back to score a rushing touchdown in that same span. They have only allowed two rushing touchdowns all season. Mixon will see work, but unless he catches some balls, then his upside is very limited. He should be fine as a borderline RB2, but I’d look elsewhere if I could in Week 13.

The Jaguars will have Travis Etienne this week despite injury concerns. Etienne has been average since the Jaguars bye week, with just 143 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. That was my concern with ETN’s success in the early portion of the season since his production was mostly touchdowns. ETN may be able to get back on track this week against the Bengals. The Bengals have allowed four running backs over 60 rushing yards in the last five weeks. They also have allowed five rushing touchdowns in that span. Etienne should be able to see 14-plus carries in this game and get back to that RB1 status. If Etienne can score, he will finish as an RB1 in Week 13. D’Ernest Johnson has seen seven carries in the last two weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to see carries to keep the pressure off ETN. He would be, at best, a borderline RB4 in Week 13.

Pass Catchers

The Bengals receivers have a solid matchup as the Jaguars rank in the bottom ten vs. the position. The Jaguars have allowed six receivers over 50 receiving yards in the last five weeks. While the yardage hasn’t been that high, they have allowed six receiving touchdowns in the same span. Ja’Marr Chase had a decent game last week with four receptions for 80 yards. Chase’s upside is capped without Joe Burrow. Browning does seem to focus his pass attempts on Chase. Also, the return of Tee Higgins should help take the pressure off of Chase to see more one-on-one. I believe Chase will see a significant target share, giving him a chance to do well because of his talent. Chase is a borderline WR1 in Week 13.

Tee Higgins is returning to the field after missing the last month. We haven’t seen Higgins with Browning, so how his targets will look is a mystery. It seems unlikely he will see his seven-target average in this game. I’d probably have Higgins as a high-end WR4, but Higgins is a risk to start in his first game back. Tyler Boyd has seen five targets in back-to-back games. I expect him to see a similar production to what we’ve seen in the last two weeks. He is a low-end WR4 in Week 13. For the tight ends, the Jaguars also rank in the bottom ten. The previous two weeks, they had been very good at stopping tight end production, but before that, they had allowed three tight ends over 50 yards in Weeks 6-10. Tanner Hudson has been the only consistent target option among the Bengals tight ends. He could produce in this game and start in lineups, especially due to the big bye weeks. Hudson is a low-end TE2 in Week 13.

The Jaguars receivers have a solid matchup against the Bengals secondary. They have allowed four receivers well over 80 receiving yards in the last five weeks. They also have given up four other receivers over 50 yards, plus four touchdowns. Calvin Ridley has been great the last two weeks. He has 191 yards and three touchdowns. Ridley should be able to beat the Bengals secondary deep and provide big plays. He should be a high-end WR2 in Week 13. Christian Kirk has been solid, especially with Zay Jones back on the field. Kirk has moved back to the slot more with Jones in the lineup. Slot receivers don’t usually do amazing against the Bengals, but Kirk should be able to put up some numbers. He will be a low-end WR2 in Week 13.

For Zay Jones, he has not done much since his return to the field. He has 30 yards over the last two games. He does have a favorable matchup that fits his play style. I like Jones as a high-end WR5 in Week 13. The Bengals allow the second most fantasy points per game for the tight end position. In three of the last five weeks, the Bengals have allowed 80 yards to an opposing tight end. Evan Engram needs a big wake-up game this week. He continues to see six-plus targets in most games, so he should see that in Week 13. Engram will be a TE1 and get his first touchdown this season.