Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Details of the Script

• MNF – 8:15 p.m. @ US Bank Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (MIN -3.0) & Over/Under 43.5

Identifying the Game Script

The Bears and the Vikings are playing their second of two games this season. Last time, the Vikings would win on the road over the Bears 19-13. That was the game that Justin Fields left early with that hand injury. The Bears are coming off a game where they lost to the Lions after having a big lead. The Vikings are coming off a last-second loss to the Broncos on MNF. The Bears will look to make things more competitive than the last time they faced the Vikings. The Vikings are a tough matchup, so expect the team to lean on Justin Fields to save the day. The Vikings will look to hopefully have Justin Jefferson back in the lineup after the offense lacked explosiveness without him.

Quarterback

In his first game back from injury, Justin Fields looked pretty good as a fantasy quarterback. He didn’t throw for many yards but returned to his high upside rushing with over 100 rushing in Week 11. The Vikings have been pretty good against quarterbacks over the last six games. They have allowed six passing touchdowns in that span, plus not a single quarterback over 275 passing yards. The previous time Fields played the Vikings, he had 46 rushing yards in the first half. I expect Fields to continue running the ball against the Vikings in this game. If Fields can get his passing swagger back with his rushing floor, then the sky is the limit for Fields. In a primetime game, Fields should be able to finish as a QB1 in Week 12.

Joshua Dobbs is coming off his worst game as a Viking with 19 fantasy points. Dobbs has been great with the Vikings and could receive a potential boost in production, with Justin Jefferson possibly returning to the field in this game. Dobb has 120 rushing yards in three games, showing off a nice rushing floor. For the Bears, they are a bottom-ten team against fantasy quarterbacks. The Bears have allowed a two-touchdown game to a passer in three of the last four games. One quarterback has gone over 240 passing yards in the previous five games. The Bears haven’t allowed a quarterback to rush for over 30 rushing yards yet this season. Joshua Dobbs has been a great fantasy quarterback this season and should be solid in this matchup. Even in his worst game with the Vikings, Dobbs was solid. Dobbs should be a high-end QB2 in Week 12.

Running Backs

We will get a two-person committee instead of three for the Bears backfield. D’Onta Foreman is out for MNF, so the backfield will be Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. The Vikings are a tough run defense, ranking as a top-ten unit against running backs. The Vikings have allowed only one running back over 50 rushing yards in the last six games. They have done a good job holding some of the elite running backs to mediocre games. They have allowed production in the receiving game to running backs with four of six games over 30 yards. Last time, Foreman ran for 65 yards against this Vikings defense.

With Foreman out, Herbert should resume his early down role in the offense. We’ve seen the Bears use a primary starter like a workhorse with 15-plus carries in games this year. Herbert should be able to put up high-end RB3 numbers. He is a decent flex option that can give you at least a floor play. Roschon Johnson continues to see minimal work in the offense. He can’t be trusted in this game. Unless they use Johnson more as a pass-catching back, his value is not high. He is a low-end RB4 at best.

For the Vikings, the backfield will be interesting in this matchup. Alexander Mattison is coming off two games under ten fantasy points but continues to lead the backfield in snaps. Taking the backup job over again, Ty Chandler has looked good the last two weeks. He has more yardage and fantasy points in the previous two weeks over Mattison. The Bears are a bottom-ten run defense this season. It is the rushing yards that the Bears gave up production to running backs. They have allowed one rusher over 50 yards in the last six games. It wasn’t given the Lions in Week 11 had they given up a rusher over 75 yards. They also gave up two rushing touchdowns, the first since week four of the season.

The value for running backs will be in the receiving game. They have allowed four running backs to produce over 40 receiving yards in the last six weeks. Mattison has shown that most of his value has come in the receiving game this year, with three touchdowns. Ty Chandler had four targets the previous week, so Mattison could lose that portion of the offense. Mattison is a high-end RB3 at best. Chandler has an upside but is more of a high-end RB4 in this matchup. It wouldn’t surprise me if Chandler outscores Mattison.

Pass Catchers

Things have returned to normal for the Bears pass catchers, with DJ Moore standing out among the group. The Vikings secondary has been more bent but don’t break. They have allowed seven receivers over 50 yards in the last five games but only two over 70 yards to a receiver. They have allowed four touchdowns in six games. Last time, DJ Moore had 50 yards, and Darnell Mooney had 48 yards in that game. DJ Moore desperately needed Fields back, as he only averaged 50 yards in games without Fields. In Fields’ first game back, Moore scored 96 yards and a touchdown. Moore should be fine in this game as a high-end WR2. Moore is Fields’ top choice among the pass catchers.

Darnell Mooney has been very boom/bust in fantasy, with many more busts in games. Mooney is outside my top 60 receivers in this matchup. Cole Kmet is coming off a down week for the tight end position after some big performances the prior three weeks. Kmet has been a little more boom/bust with Fields at quarterback. The Vikings have allowed three tight ends over 50 yards in the last five weeks. Kmet on MNF has averaged 48 yards, so primetime works for his value. Kmet is a great tight end but can disappear in games. Kmet is a low-end TE1 with upside.

For the Vikings pass catchers, we could see Justin Jefferson‘s return, as he has missed the last five games. The Bears have been a solid team against fantasy receivers, with only two over 60 yards in the previous five weeks. The Bear’s struggle has been touchdowns, with five in the previous five games. If Justin Jefferson returns, he has a good history with the Bears. He averages 98 receiving yards in six career games. Despite the switch of quarterbacks, I still rank Jefferson as a WR1. He is a fantastic talent that still needs to be ranked as one of the elites. Jordan Addison hasn’t done well with Joshua Dobbs, as he has been under ten fantasy points in each game. Addison is more of a low-end WR3 with or without Jefferson in lineups.

KJ Osborn has fallen out of favor with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. His value is no longer inside the top 60 receivers this week. TJ Hockenson has been banged up for the last few weeks. He has played fewer snaps in the previous two weeks as he rotated more often. Bears have been a decent matchup for opposing tight ends. We’ve seen multiple tight ends finish as TE1 this season. Hockenson had 50 yards the last time he played the Bears. He should be a TE1 in this matchup.