Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

Details of the TNF Script

• Thursday Night Football: 8:20 pm @ GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Weather – Clear & Warm Night
• Kansas City Chiefs are favored (-3) with an Over/Under of 46.5

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson is no stranger to TNF or playing the Chiefs. While Jackson hasn’t done well in regular-season play against them, the Chiefs lost a key piece on defense in the secondary with L’Jarius Sneed leaving for the Tennessee Titans via free agency. The defense remains elite as they were the second-best defense against quarterbacks.

Jackson should be considered a mid-to-low-end QB1 in fantasy for Week 1. Despite the question marks around the passing game, Jackson should have a chance to run for over 50 yards on Thursday night. Despite the data showing that Jackson struggles against the Chiefs, he remains a low-end QB1 option. Teams in Week 1 are still figuring out their schemes, and Jackson’s ability on the ground will help him stumble into a top-12 finish.

• Game Day Fact: Jackson has averaged 263 total yards and under 2 total touchdowns per game vs KC.

Patrick Mahomes has been fantastic in season openers since 2018. The Ravens’ defense has lost plenty of key players from last year’s elite defense. Baltimore has some youth to take over, but is it enough for the season’s first game? Mahomes has done well against the Ravens, averaging three touchdowns per game in four career games. Without question, Mahomes should be a top-12 quarterback in Week 1 and may finish as QB1 for the week.

• Game Day Fact: Mahomes has averaged 294 passing yards and 3 touchdowns in 6 career season openers.

Running Backs

We are excited for Derrick Henry to take the field as a Baltimore Raven. His fantasy value is a mystery since we’ve never seen Henry work alongside a dual-threat quarterback like Jackson. The Chiefs were a top-10 run defense in 2023 and retained most of their front seven. They allowed only six rushing touchdowns to a running back last year. Henry will likely be rushing touchdown or bust in this game. I’d expect the Ravens to be trailing a bit, so it could phase Henry out of this game. He is better suited as a high-end RB2 in Week 1. Justice Hill will likely have a role in the passing game but is not valued as a top-40 running back in this matchup.

• Game Day Fact: The Ravens RB1 in 2023 had the second most touchdowns inside the 20 in 2023. Henry should be featured in the red zone.

Isiah Pacheco will lead the Chiefs backfield in Week 1. Last season, the Ravens had a top-ten run defense. They lost some players like Patrick Queen and Jadeveon Clowney, so they may not be as strong in Week 1. If Kansas City can get off to a fast start, Pacheco could score a red zone touchdown or two and finish as a high-end RB2 on the week. The newly signed Samaje Perine should play a role in the passing game with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out the first four games. I wouldn’t take the chance on Perine in Week 1. He is outside the top 50 running backs for now.

• Game Day Fact: Pacheco finished with 17 fantasy points in last year’s playoff game versus Baltimore

Wide Receivers

The Ravens receivers outside of Zay Flowers are not confident starts. Yes, the Chiefs’ defense lost a big piece of their secondary, but it’s still a group that finished second in fantasy points given up to receivers. Rashod Bateman‘s offseason hype isn’t something to trust in Week 1, and Nelson Agholor can’t produce if he doesn’t get the targets. The Chiefs have been great at stopping outside receivers in the last few seasons. Both Bateman and Agholor are outside my top 50 for Week 1.

Flowers struggled to find upside in games with Mark Andrews and Bateman on the field. Flowers should get his targets in this matchup, but his upside is capped. I’m concerned with his low average depth of target (ADOT) that he could finish with 4 receptions for 40 yards. Those numbers don’t scream flex-worthy value in week one.

• Game Day Fact: Flowers averaged 8.0 fantasy points per game with Andrews and Batemon on the field.

For the Chiefs receivers, they could be in for a great night. The Ravens secondary was great last year against receivers (5th). Rashee Rice should be a solid WR3 in this matchup and challenge Travis Kelce to lead the team in targets. Rice is the secondary safety blanket for Mahomes and will gain yards after the catch.

For the rest of the Chiefs receivers, I’d only feel good about rookie Xavier Worthy in lineups. Worthy has flashed in the preseason, and there is no doubt this offense will take shots or find a way to get him into space. He is likely a boom-or-bust WR4 to throw in your flex for Week 1. You should feel confident in his targets, especially with Marquise Brown OUT in Week 1. Outside of that, I wouldn’t consider any other receiver.

• Game Day Fact: Rashee Rice had a 23% target share in the second half of the 2023 season.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews is back and healthy after missing the final six games of the regular season in 2023. He should remain the no. 1 option for Lamar Jackson on offense. Andrews ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (13.5) before going down with an injury. The Chiefs were a tough team against tight ends (5th) last year. If this game does turn out to be higher scoring, you should expect Andrews to be heavily involved, especially in the red zone. It would be best to lower expectations for Andrews in this matchup, but he remains a low-end TE1. While there are rumors that the Ravens are using Isaiah Likely more, he should remain on the bench until the team shows us his role.

• Game Day Fact: In 4 career games, Andrews has 11 total receptions for 94 yards and 0 touchdowns vs. the Chiefs.

There is nothing like two juggernauts at the tight end playing in the same game with Andrews and Travis Kelce. We remember Kelce having a down season, but he came alive during the playoffs. The Chiefs have plenty of new talent on the roster, but don’t let that change your mind regarding Kelce. He should be a TE1 despite the Ravens playing well against fantasy tight ends last season.

• Game Day Fact: In Kelce’s last three opening season games, he has averaged 82 yards and a touchdown per game.

Thank you for reading! For further fantasy advice, hit me up on X @CoachStevenP or on the Dynasty Nerds Discord! My content is aimed for those in the #NerdHerd wanting easily-digestible information to help them win a dynasty championship.