Welcome to Week 13, #NerdHerd!! Dennis Bennett here. Week 12 was a better week on the start/sit calls. And by better, I mean I was HOT this week. It was a 3-1 week, with my one miss being Derrick Henry, who only finished at RB10 when he was ranked RB11. I felt like he had top-three potential in Week 12. That brings me to 10 hits, 8 misses, and 2 pushes.
With two weeks left in the fantasy football season, things are getting tense. Do you need a win to get the last playoff spot? Are you trying to knock your rival out of the playoffs? Whatever your current situation, I am here to help with the running back start/sit questions.
Be sure to follow our other start/sit articles and authors; they contain great advice to help you each week.
Changing the Call (QB): Mike Hicks
The Cutback (RB): Jake Oliver
Slant Pattern (WR): Tristan Cook
12 Formation (TE): Steven Pintado
Flex on ‘Em (FLEX): Evan Brown
IDP Start/Sit (IDP): Jon Glosser
There is one thing I want to note. For this article and every running back start/sit article I write, I won’t include players like Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler. These are apparent starts so long as they aren’t on bye or injured. If you don’t start them, well, you’re a Taco. I’ll be focusing on players who are a bit harder to decide whether to start or what to expect from them. All scoring in this article series will be PPR. All stats/RB# number finishes come from FantasyPros. So, let’s make this a great season as we watch over 200+ games of NFL football. It’s back! Good luck with this dynasty fantasy football season.
The Recap
Let’s recap Week 12.
Hits
Start: Raheem Mostert, Dolphins, RB17 finished RB8 – hit
With De’Von Achane missing time, Mostert locked down the Dolphins RB1 spot with a 60% snap share and a 57% opportunity share. Mostert put up 94 and 2 touchdowns with 1 target. I called for Mostert to be a low-end RB1, and he was a couple of spots better than that.
Start: Kyren Williams, Rams, RB18, finished as RB1 – hit
It can be scary to start a player coming back from injury. Jonathan Taylor scored just 4.4 fantasy points in his return. Williams only played 61% of the snaps, with the Rams in control of the game from the outset. Kyren Williams delivered 204 scrimmage yards with 6 catches and 2 receiving touchdowns. I expected Williams to be in the top 14, but he crushed that.
Start: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots, RB20 finished as RB7 – hit
Rhamondre Stevenson is the lone bright spot in a dismal New England offense. He has been RB10 over the last seven weeks. Week 12 saw Stevenson rush for 98 yards and a touchdown while adding an additional 5 receptions for 9 yards. The big running back produced 38.5% of the team yards in a 10-7 loss to the lowly Giants, exceeding my call of a top-16 finish by nine spots.
Miss
Start: Derrick Henry, Titans, RB11 finished as RB10 – miss
The Titans went up against one of the worst run defenses while starting a rookie quarterback. It was a game script that screamed top five week. King Henry had a good week but not the great week I called for.
Let’s see if we can keep the hot streak rolling in Week 13.
Start: Najee Harris, Steelers, RB22
Last week, the Steelers ended a 58-game streak of less than 400 yards of offense. The Steelers running backs put up 148 yards, led by Harris’s 99. Week 13 brings a Cardinals defense that gives up the third most fantasy points to running back. They also surrender the second most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Jaylen Warren has been the starter and had the edge in touches 16-15. However, Harris out snapped him last week. Against a weak Arizona run defense, look for Harris to get fed again this week. A top-16 running back week is incoming.
Start: Devin Singletary, Texans, RB21
The return of Dameon Pierce did not cut into Singletary’s snaps, but Pierce did touch the ball on 6 of his 11 snaps. Week 13 brings the Denver Broncos, who give up the most fantasy points to running backs. Singletary is the RB4 over the last three weeks. He has 280 yards rushing, 71 yards receiving, and 2 touchdowns. The Broncos give up a per game average of 133 yards on the ground, 6 receptions and 41 yards in the air, and a touchdown per game. If Singletary hits 70% of what the Broncos give up each week, he’ll be a top-six running back. That’s a heavy lift. I am calling for Singletary to finish as an RB1 this week.
Start: Joe Mixon, Bengals, RB23
The Jaguars are stout vs. the ground game but give up the most receptions and third most receiving yards to running backs. Mixon has been a good receiver during his career and is on pace to catch 51 passes in 2023. The Jaguars defense gives up the 7th highest yards per play. The Bengals are starting journeyman Jake Browning and will need to rely heavily on passes to the running back. I expect Mixon to have a season-high in targets and receptions this week. I have Mixon as a high-end RB2 this week.
Sit: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions, RB9
As I have said before, this isn’t a ‘sit’ so much as a manage expectations situation. Gibbs has been out snapping Montgomery 65/35 since Montgomery returned in Week 10. Montgomery has led in the carry department 39-31 over the last three games. The game script for this game should favor Montgomery.
The Saints give up the second-fewest receptions and fourth-fewest receiving yards to running backs. Gibbs will be in your starting lineup, but look for him to finish outside the top 15 running backs in Week 13.
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