In Part 5 of this case study, I will discuss my strategy going into the 2021 season, including my trades and waiver claims that led to a playoff run in 2021. If you want to read Part 1 about the start-up draft, click here. For Part 2 about the moves made in the first rookie draft, click here. For Part 3 about the moves made during the first season, click here. Part 4 was about the moves made during the first offseason/ rookie draft, click here.
Superflex Dynasty Regular Season: August-December 2021
Traded 2022 2.12 for Logan Thomas and 2023 4th
Going into the 2021 season, I started to feel like my team could compete, so I decided to make a move for Thomas, who I traded away from earlier in this series. Looking back at this move, I don’t love it because I made a push to compete too soon in the season. My team was still young and had a lot of question marks. If I waited four or so weeks, I could have made a competitive move for Gronk, Schultz, or Zach Ertz. As I have said multiple times, BE PATIENT – especially if your team is young.
Waiver: Added Devonta Freeman, RB BAL
Freeman was my top waiver add at the beginning of September, and I was able to add him in three leagues. He proved to be a solid flex play in this league, especially after the Ravens’ bye week. Freeman is an example of the type of player I am looking to add off waivers. Even if my season began to fall apart, I could move him for an injured upside player or a 2022 second.
Traded Michael Gallup, Elijah Moore, and 2023 2nd for Mike Williams and Jalen Reagor
This one hurts! Luckily, I was able to move Williams in my next trade, but I botched this one. This is another example of pushing to compete too soon instead of being patient with my team. I was buying into Mike Williams becoming a baller (and potential top18 WR in dynasty or higher). Still, as we now see, I was wrong, and Elijah Moore is more valuable than Williams.
Traded Mike Williams and 2022 1.12 for Austin Ekeler and Michael Thomas
I like this trade going into the middle of the season. I was a competitive playoff team, and I knew I needed to move for a top-end player and a player with upside. Ekeler proved to be that guy and helped my team down the stretch. I know I have Michael Thomas stashed to go into the 2022 season. One potential issue going into the 2022 offseason is I do not have any 2022 picks, but I luckily have a young team and can always trade for some. I also was gladly able to move off Williams while he still had some value.
Traded Jalen Reagor for Alexander Mattison
This trade was a slam dunk for my team. I needed to move Reagor because his value would not increase in the 2021 season. I was able to gain a top-end RB handcuff that started for my team when Cook was injured. This is one of the few times moving a WR for an RB will work out easily.
Traded Logan Thomas and Courtland Sutton for Dallas Goedert
This trade was needed going into the offseason, but it hurt me because I was selling Sutton and Thomas lower than I wanted to. Goedert was a much-needed piece for my TE struggling team that had been starting either Ricky Seals-Jones, Thomas, or Kyle Rudolph, and I believe he improved my odds of winning a championship by a large margin. It did not happen, but now, I still prefer the Goedert side looking at this trade.
FINAL THOUGHTS
- I messed up by pushing to compete too soon. If I would have waited four or six weeks, I would have had a clearer view of where my team was and the players I should go after.
- It is a good idea to make random trade offers to your league mates throughout the season. My Reagor for Mattison trade was a random thought that worked out great for my team. Just don’t be impulsive and make a trade that you will regret!
- Once you are in the playoffs (or right before), be creative in the types of trades you send. In my trade for Dallas Goedert, I knew that Logan Thomas was done for the year and Sutton was not productive, so I was not losing any production in the playoffs. Also, according to dynastytradecalculator.com, I gained dynasty value as well as production by having Goedert be four times more valuable than Thomas and Sutton combined.
The takeaways
Throughout this five-part series, I talked through every draft pick, waiver move, and trade I made to take my team from botching the start-up draft to a third-place playoff team. I made plenty of mistakes, as anyone would. The main takeaways from this series are do not make lateral RB moves, be patient with young talent, and don’t push to contend too early. Sometimes, the trade you do not make is a bigger deal than the trade you do make.
This is the final part of this case study, but I will be doing one other case studies over the next month. I will also be looking into rookie hit rates and rookie values over multiple seasons. Best of luck this offseason, and be aggressive in making moves!
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One Response
Great content! A topic i am very curious to hear from you guys is regarding Percentage of Starting Lineup Points broken down by position. League formats vary from league to league, so it is always so hard to make valuations apply across the board within our community. One way to potentially navigate through this is by using this calculation to make it applicable for all. How many percent a certain position occupies of your entire teams starting lineup can be a good way to give us all a better indication. What are your thoughts and ideas around this concept? Would love to read an article about it.