Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Hard Rock Stadium
• Weather – Partly Cloudy
• Miami Dolphins are favored (-3.5) with an Over/Under 48.5

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence is a difficult fantasy quarterback to value in Week 1. The last time we saw him on the field, he underperformed in fantasy. He gets a matchup against the Dolphins who were in the bottom 10 against fantasy quarterbacks per game. The Dolphins secondary has made moves to be better, but the lack of a pass rush may help give Lawrence more time in the pocket. I’d value Lawrence as more of a high-end QB2 as I lack the confidence he’ll bounce back right away.

Tua Tagovailoa is the ultimate boom-or-bust fantasy quarterback. He plays the Jaguars, who ranked in the bottom 10 against fantasy quarterbacks per game. Tagovailoa also plays better in South Florida than on the road. The offense should get off to a fast start, so Tagovailoa should be able to put up QB1 numbers against a Jaguars’ secondary that’s filled with question marks.

Running Backs

Travis Etienne still leads the Jaguars backfield. Etienne hopes to bounce back to what he showed in the first half of 2023, averaging 18.8 PPG. The Dolphins run defense was elite, ranking inside the top 10, but losing Christian Wilkens will weaken this front seven a bit. I’d play Etienne as a true RB1 in fantasy for this matchup. He should see the bulk of the carries and have four to five targets. The only issue would be if the team uses Tank Bigsby in red-zone situations. Bigsby is only a handcuff at this point of the season, so I don’t consider him a top-50 running back in Week 1.

The Dolphins backfield is a great headache to have in fantasy. Week 1 should be mainly between De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. The Jaguars were a middle-of-the-pack defense against fantasy running backs. They were more challenging to beat on the ground as they did not allow high rushing yardage. They were beaten by pass-catching running backs as they allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs. Raheem Mostert is still considered the starter for the backfield. He should have most of the carries on the ground and a high chance of scoring. We saw Mostert lose his passing value when Achane returned late last season. He should be a solid RB2 in this game.

De’Von Achane is the back that everyone is gushing over in fantasy. Over the final 6 weeks, he had 3 games with 3 receptions for over 30 yards. Miami lacks a third option as a pass catcher, so that’s where Achane will be used. You should look toward Achane as a borderline RB1. Jaylen Wright may see a few touches, but he is outside the top 50 backs for now.

Wide Receivers

For the Jaguars’ receivers, Christian Kirk is the one you want to start in this game. In the slot, Kirk will likely go up against the Dolphins’ Kadar Kohou, who allowed the fifth most receptions in 2023. Kirk should be able to produce WR3 numbers in Week 1. Miami was a bottom-10 team in fantasy points given up to wide receivers last year. They did get some new help in the secondary, so this would be a good test to see if they have improved for 2024.

Brian Thomas Jr. should be the downfield threat for this offense. Lawrence often targeted Calvin Ridley last year, but that connection was off. Thomas was a player who averaged 17.3 YPR the previous season. In two flex leagues, he is a big boom/bust WR5 for Week 1. He may be lined up against Jalen Ramsey, so be cautious when starting him. Gabe Davis is a wild card, but I don’t trust him enough to play in Week 1.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the only Dolphins receivers worth mentioning in his game. The Jaguars were a below average secondary last season. They tried to add pieces with Darnell Savage and Ronald Darby, but they are not the same players they once were. Hill should be a no-brainer WR1 for your dynasty lineup. Waddle should be a high-end WR2 who has WR1 upside in a favorable matchup at home.

Tight Ends

If you roster Evan Engram, you should get off to a fast start against the Dolphins. Miami ranked in the bottom 10 in fantasy points per game to tight ends. Engram is coming off a quiet, elite season where he saw many targets in this offense. Engram continues to be Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target in Week 1. Engram should be a TE1 in this matchup.

Jonnu Smith‘s first game as a Dolphins is going to be interesting. Smith could clement himself as a fantasy option without a true third option in the passing game. The Jaguars were a bottom-10 defense in stopping fantasy tight ends. Smith was very hot and cold, but the Dolphins should be able to use him up the middle of the defense for big gains. Smith’s targets are critical to his value in this game as a TE2 with some upside in Week 1.

Arizona Cardinals vs Buffalo Bills

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Highmark Stadium
• Weather – Partly Cloudly
• Buffalo Bills are favored (-6.5) with an Over/Under 47.5

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray should be interesting in his first game of 2024 for fantasy. He plays a Bills defense that lost a key piece in their front seven, sack leader Leonard Floyd. The Bills were an elite team against fantasy quarterbacks, ranking in the top five. They still have a strong secondary that could give Murray problems, but he does have a rushing floor. The Bills were in the bottom half at stopping mobile quarterbacks. He should be considered more of a borderline QB1 as I don’t see him as a sure thing in Buffalo.

• Game Day Fact: Last time Kyler Murray played Buffalo, he finished 33 points.

Josh Allen will be in a new offense in 2024. Losing his top two pass catchers will be something to watch. Allen is an elite quarterback who shouldn’t have much concern for fantasy. The Cardinals’ secondary allowed the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks per game. They didn’t make many improvements to trust them in 2024. Allen should be fine with passing, and we could see an uptick on his rushing floor. Allen is a QB1 in Week 1.

Running Backs

James Conner will lead the Cardinals backfield in Week 1. The Bills’ defense was an average run defense in 2023. While Buffalos’ front seven lost some players, some youth are ready to step up and contribute. Connor should receive a bulk of the carries for the Cardinals. His receiving production is a mystery since it has been inconsistent with Murray on the field. He should be valued as an RB2 in Week 1. Rookie Trey Benson should receive some work in Week 1. He has a receiving upside that the Cardinals should take advantage of in this game. He has RB4 value in this game.

• Game Day Fact: Connor scored seven of his nine touchdowns with Murray on the Field.

James Cook should be expected to lead the Bills’ backfield in Week 1. The Cardinals were the worst run defense in football in 2023. The Cardinals made some moves to strengthen the front seven, but I don’t think that will be enough. The Bills offense is looking for their identity on offense, and it could start by running the ball more. Cook should see a heavy workload and be an RB1 in this matchup. Ray Davis could be considered a sleeper in Week 1 if the Bills blow out the Cardinals. Davis has RB4 potential.

Wide Receivers

We finally get to see rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. play a full NFL game. The Bills are going to be a tough matchup for this group. Despite the Bills losing Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer, they have an elite secondary. Harrison will have to go up against Christian Benford, who broke out last season. He should have a high target share in this game, so Harrison should be good but not great. He is best as a low-end WR2 in Week 1. Greg Dortch is going up against Taron Johnson in the slot, which is one of the best slot corners in the league. Michael Wilson likely won’t have enough targets and has to play against Rasul Douglas. Both are otuside the top 50 receivers.

The Bills receivers are going to be a tricky bunch to sort out in Week 1. The Cardinals’ secondary wasn’t good, but it was because they allowed a high amount of touchdowns to receivers. A lot of this group will depend on Curtis Samuel being available in Week 1. I likely won’t trust Samuel, who is dealing with turf toe and playing against a good slot corner in Garrett Williams. He is outside my top 60 receivers in Week 1.

Khalil Shakir will be the receiver I’m trusting in this matchup. He has a longer connection with Allen, and I lean toward that. If Shakir plays outside, it should allow him to produce in this matchup. He is a WR4, and you could throw him into the flex if needed. Keon Coleman is a mystery, but he’d likely benefit if Samuel doesn’t play. He hasn’t looked great in training camp. He is better off as a boom/bust WR5.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride could easily be the player who leads this team in targets from Week 1. I’m not concerned with his matchup against the Bills linebackers, as their top linebacker, Matt Milano won’t be on the phone. McBride did well with Murray last season, averaging 67 yards per game. Buffalo was an elite team against fantasy tight ends last season, but with many defensive players lost, McBride should have no issues playing well in this matchup. McBride should finish as a TE1 in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: McBride ranked 11th among tight ends in redzone targets last season.

We have the battle of two young tight ends with McBride and second-year player Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid looks to be the lead target in the offense, as he has been lining up all over the offense this offseason. The Cardinals were a defense that didn’t allow high yardage but gave up eight touchdowns to opposing tight ends. He is a TE1 for Week 1. Don’t be surprised if a touchdown goes to Dawson Knox in this game.

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Paycor Stadium
• Weather – Sunny
• Cincinnati Bengals are favored (-8.5) with an Over/Under 40.5

Quarterbacks

Veteran Jacoby Brissett will be the Week 1starter for the Patriots. The last time we saw Brissett play a regular season game, he flashed with the Commanders. He plays an average secondary who allowed high passing yardage last season. Brissett doesn’t have trusted weapons or a great rushing upside. Brissett should be viewed as a QB3 in this game.

Joe Burrow looks healthy heading into Week 1. He will have a tougher matchup with the Patriots. They have a strong defense with a secondary that was above average against fantasy quarterbacks. The Bengals don’t have a strong run game, so they will lean on Burrow in the passing game. He should be a QB1 in this matchup. The one concern is if JaMarr Chase doesn’t play due to his contract situation. Burrow has been inconsistent without Chase on the field.

• Game Day Fact: Joe Burrow averages 300 passing yards at home over his career.

Running Backs

I expect the Patriots to play tough defense and run the football in Week 1. Rhamondre Stevenson should benefit from an increased role in this matchup. The Bengals run defense was below average, but they stopped running backs from thriving in the passing game. Stevenson’s has thrived off his receiving usage, so that will be something to watch. Stevenson should be playing most of the ground game by himself, with a few targets sprinkled in. He is better off as a low-end RB2 since his receiving role is still a mystery. Most of the mystery is due to the addition of Antonio Gibson, who has thrived the last few seasons as a pass-catching back. Gibson is a borderline RB4 until we see his role.

• Game Day Fact: Rhamondre Stevenson only averages 3.7 yards in the month of September over his career.

The Bengals backfield is causing headaches in who is going to be the guy between Zach Moss and Chase Brown. The Patriots defense did lose a few key players in Matt Judon and Mack Wilson. You should expect this backfield to split the workload in Week 1. Moss should handle the red zone work while Brown sees more of the pass catching role. I’d consider them both RB3s and would be risky to trust in lineups.

• Game Day Fact: There are over 300 vacated touches in the backfield with Joe Mixon gone.

Wide Receivers

The Patriots receivers are a group that you likely won’t want to play in Week 1. DeMario Douglas is the best player on this roster at the moment. He has a tough matchup in the slot against Mike Hilton. Douglas should be the target leader but may not produce high yardage. He is valued as an WR5. The outside corners are an easier matchup, but the talent at receiver is questionable. It is possible to see KJ Osborn or Ja’Lynn Polk have a solid game, but playing them in Week 1 is way too risky. They are outside the top 60 receivers.

The Bengals receiver situation is a mess right now. JaMarr Chase may not play due to his contract. The Patriots were an above-average team against fantasy receivers last season. If Chase plays, he should still be a WR1 in Week 1. He has too strong of a connection with Burrow not to do well in this matchup. Tee Higgins is doubtful for this game so he should not be in any lineups. Andrei Iosivas jumps to a sleeper in Week 1. He has been lighting it up all camp and should be second in targets without Higgins on the field. Trenton Irwin has some deep sleeper appeal as he fills in for Higgins and has done well in the past. Iosivas would be a mid-range WR4, and Irwin would be a borderline WR5.

• Game Day Fact: In the four games Tee Higgins missed in 2023, JaMarr Chase averaged 6.5 receptions, 102 yards, and a touchdown.

Tight Ends

The Patriots tight end room has a fantastic Week 1 matchup. The Bengals were a team that was bad against fantasy tight ends. They allowed the second-most yards to the position. Hunter Henry will serve as a TE1 for the Patriots. He should be a reliable target in the middle of the field. Henry should be considered a high end TE2 in Week 1 as he see solid yardage.

• Game Day Fact: Hunter Henry has only scored 2 touchdowns in 19 career games in September.

We will see Mike Gesicki go against his former team, the Patriots. The Patriots were an elite defense against fantasy tight ends. They allowed the fewest touchdowns and second fewest yardage. Gesicki is a talented pass-catching tight end, but he hasn’t been relevant in the last few seasons. I wouldn’t trust him in Week 1 action. He isn’t a top-24 tight end until I see some production from him.

• Game Day Fact: Mike Gesicki has gone over 50 yards once in the last two years. **

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ MetLife Stadium
• Weather – Sunny
• Minnesota Vikings are favored (-1.5) & Over/Under 41.5

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold gets to be the starter for Week 1 against the Giants. The Giants were a surprisingly solid defense against fantasy quarterbacks. It could have been that teams could run on the Giants, so they didn’t need to pass as much. This game could be higher scoring since both secondaries heading into 2024 do not look good. The Vikings under Kevin O’Connell have always been pass-heavy, so Darnold will get his chances to throw. Darnold was always a turnover-prone player, and the Giants had 18 interceptions last year. He should be considered a low-end QB2. The turnovers may hurt Darnold in this game.

Daniel Jones is back as the starter, but which Jones shows up? The Vikings have been dismantled in their secondary, but they did recently sign Stephon Gilmore to help. The Vikings were an average defense but did allow high passing and rushing yards last season. The Giants no longer have Saquon Barkley so that they may throw the ball more this season. Jones hasn’t been much of a thrower, even in his QB1 season a few years ago. Jones’s rushing upside has kept him in fantasy games, but at the same time, his turnovers are a significant problem. You must value Jones in this matchup as a boom or bust QB2.

Running Backs

The Vikings’ new running back, Aaron Jones, will look to get off to a hot start. The Giants were a bottom-10 run defense last season. They did get a few elite additions on the front seven, like Brian Burns and Jordan Phillips. Aaron Jones should see at least 60% of the workload, while Ty Chandler sees the other 40%. The Vikings should look to not overwork Jones, who has an injury history. Jones should be able to provide RB2 production, especially with his involvement in the passing game. Chandler should be able to provide some value in deeper leagues but would need a touchdown or so to get over 10 fantasy points for the week. He is an RB4 in Week 1.

The Giants backfield will look much different without Saquon Barkley on the field. Week 1 will be challenging for this backfield since the Vikings were a top-10 run defense last year. The Vikings did enough to replace their key departures. That leaves Devin Singletary with a tough Week 1matchup. He should get the majority of the work in Week 1. I’d consider him an RB3 in this matchup. Backups Tyrone Tracey and Eric Gray should also get some work in this game. Those two are not in the top 50 running backs in Week 1.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson highlights the Vikings receivers. The Giants were a bottom-5 secondary last season against fantasy receivers on a per-game basis. Justin Jefferson should be able to dominate this matchup against the Giants young corners in this game. He should be a top-5 receiver in Week 1. Jordan Addison has a more difficult matchup in this one. He would be going up against recently signed Adoree Jackson, who did well in slot coverage last season. We are also unsure if Darnold can keep two players fantasy relevant this season. Addison is a WR4 in Week 1. Jalen Nailor is a deep sleeper and is in a good matchup. He is still outside my top 60 receivers, but he could surprise in Week 1.

For the Giants receivers, rookie Malik Nabers is the only one worth trusting. Daniel Jones is an average passer, but the Giants must find ways to get the ball in Nabers’ hands. The Vikings were in the bottom 10 in giving up fantasy points to receivers. Nabers should be able to command upward of 7 targets in this game. I’d value him as a solid WR2 in Week 1. After this game, we’ll quickly find out if Darius Slayton or WanDale Robinson are worth the roster spot.

Tight Ends

The Vikings will be without TJ Hockenson for a while. The team will turn to Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver in this game. Both tight ends have flashed at times in their careers, so it could be anyones game. Mundt picked up the slack in the final two games last season with Hockenson out. The Giants were a tough place for fantasy tight ends last season. Neither is a top-24 tight end in Week 1.

The Giants were left with a hole, with Darren Waller retiring from this offense. That leaves Daniel Bellinger and Theo Johnson to take over. The Vikings were a great team against fantasy tight ends last year. It’s hard to trust that Daniel Jones can make anyone outside of Nabers be fantasy-consistent. Bellinger will likely be the starter due to his blocking, but his upside is limited. Johnson is young, but he has a receiving upside. Both are outside the top 24 tight ends in Week 1.

Tennessee Titans vs Chicago Bears

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Soldier Field
• Weather – Mostly Sunny
• Chicago Bears are favored (-3.5) & Over/Under 44.5

Quarterbacks

Second-year quarterback Will Levis is ready to show he can be a good fantasy quarterback. The Bears were a below-average pass defense in 2023. They have pieces in place that could be outstanding but remain to be seen. Levis will be on an offense, allowing him to throw more and quickly get the ball out of his hands. He should have time in this game with his improved offensive line. Levis is just outside the top 24 quarterbacks for Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Will Levis had one game over 17 fantasy points last season.

Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, will debut in the NFL. Williams had some ups and downs during preseason, but he should be an exciting player to watch in Week 1. The Titans were an already above-average defense in 2023 against fantasy quarterbacks. They had plenty of talent in the secondary with L’Jarius Sneed coming to town. Williams also had a ton of talent in his pass catchers, making it easier for him to produce. Williams should make big plays in his game, but he also could do too much and make poor decisions. He should be valued as a mid-range QB2 in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: The last 5 first overall picks have averaged 250 all-purpose yards with 1 TD and 1 Int.

Running Backs

The Titans backfield is another messy one. The Bears were in the bottom 10 in fantasy points per game for running backs. It was due to allowing high rushing yardage but also they allowed the most receiving yards to running backs. The split between Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears is hard to break down since the Titans talk about them as co-starters. I think we could see them rotate series a bit. Pollard should have first grabs at touches; then Spears will mix in and control a series. The team wants Pollard to be the guy, with Spears as more of a compliment. Both should have been good in the passing game, with Pollard seeing more groundwork. Pollard is a high-end RB3 who is a better flex, and Spears is a low-end RB3 with more risk.

• Game Day Fact: The last time Tony Pollard played Chicago, he produced 130 yards and 3 touchdowns.

For the Bears backfield, it should be led by DeAndre Swift. The Titan’s run defense wasn’t as elite as it was in years past, but it was still a strong unit. They should be good as long as Jeffrey Simmons is on the field. Swift will have his work cut out for him in Week 1. Swift is likely to split early down work with Khalil Herbert, who is a better pure runner than Swift. Swift will see the third down and passing work in the offense. The number of targets for Swift will be key, but I don’t have him higher than a high-end RB3. Herbert should see some work on the ground, but he is just outside my top 50 running backs for Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: DeAndre Swift has scored a touchdown in 3 of his 4 season openers.

Wide Receivers

For the Titans receivers, Calvin Ridley should be a start in this game. The Bears secondary is an average unit that Ridley should do well against. Ridley should be used all over the field rather than just as a deep threat. Ridley is a high-end WR3 in Week 1. Tyler Boyd could be a sleeper even if Hopkins does play in this game. Boyd has secured the slot role and should see targets on a team with few options. He is a WR5 in this game. I don’t want to trust DeAndre Hopkins in Week 1 after an injury. I’m leaving him off my top 60 receivers.

• Game Day Fact: Levis targeted his WR1 on average 8 times per game. Ridley should see a high target share in this game.

The Bears receivers will be a question everyone wants answered. The Titans secondary was a favorable matchup for receivers in 2023, as they ranked in the bottom 10 on a per-game basis. They made enormous additions to the position, making them look dangerous in 2024. Presume WR1 DJ Moore will play against Snead, which will be a difficult matchup. Since Moore doesn’t need to be the focal point in bad situations, he may not have a great day. He is better off as a WR3 for Week 1.

Rome Odunze is getting the easier matchup, so he could have a better game, but I am not sure how many targets the young receiver will receive in the offense. Odunze is better off as a high-end WR4 with some upside. Keenan Allen matchup in the slot is solid for him to produce WR3 numbers.

• Game Day Fact: The last time DJ Moore played against L’Jarius Snead, he had 1 catch for 4 yards.

Tight Ends

For Chigoziem Okonkwo, there is not a lot of hope for him. His matchup isn’t tough since the Bengals were average against the tight ends last year, and they didn’t make big improvements. I think we could see other tight ends see snaps like Josh Whyle. Okonkwo may see a few chances to show off his vertical speed, but he is hard to consider in Week 1. He is outside the top 24 tight ends.

• Game Day Fact: Chigoziem Okonkwo averaged 5.8 fantasy points per game with Levis; that was TE27.

The Bears starting tight end, Cole Kmet, worries me in Week 1. For one, the Titans were a top-three team in stopping fantasy tight ends. The snap difference between him and Gerald Everett could cause some concerns. They rotated often with the first team offense in the preseason. The team did just pay Kmet, so they should want to use their younger tight end here. Kmet is a low-end TE2 at best in this matchup. Everett is outside the top 24 unless roles change.

• Game Day Fact: Cole Kmet has never scored a touchdown in September.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orlean Saints

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Caesars Superdome
• Weather – Indoors
• New Orleans Saints are favored (-4) with an Over/Under 41.5

Quarterbacks

Bryce Young is looking to step up in year two with a new, innovative offense. We saw David Canales do that for Baker Mayfield, and we are hoping that Young can start Week 1. Unfortunately, Young has a tough Week 1 matchup. The Saints were an above average pass defense in 2023. They made even more improvements with Chase Young and Willie Gay. Young has new weapons, but it’s hard to trust him in a division game on the road. Young should be a QB3 until shown otherwise in fantasy.

Derek Carr is looking to rebound after a terrible first season with the Saints. The Saints didn’t help Carr improve his weapons. They have the worst offensive line ranking according to PFF heading into 2024. Carr took too many hits, but the Panthers lost some of their talented pass rush, which is good for the Saints quarterback. It’s hard to tell which direction this offense will focus on in Week 1. Carr could throw a ton of yards, but the touchdowns are likely to be minimal for him. He is a QB3 in Week 1.

Running Backs

You should expect this offense to run through the backfield. Jonathan Brooks is out for weeks, so Chuba Hubbard should be the primary running back. Hubbard will have a tough matchup against a Saints run defense that ranked inside the top 10. We saw that the run game worked well in the offense under David Canales during his time in Tampa Bay. Hubbard should take the majority of the touches in the backfield over Miles Sanders. We should expect Hubbard to see four-plus targets in this game. Hubbard should be valued as a high-end RB3 in Week 1.

The Saints backfield should run through Alvin Kamara. He’ll get a great matchup in a Panthers run defense, which was bottom four in stopping fantasy running backs last season. With some rotation of Jamaal Williams, Kamara will work in this backfield. Since Carr doesn’t have much mobility, look for Kamara to see a high target volume in this game. Williams should get his chance to see touches on the ground, and Taysom Hill has been a headache for Kamara in the red zone. Kamara should be looked at as a high-end RB2. Jamaal Williams is just outside the top 50 running backs for Week 1.

Wide Receivers

The Panthers receivers will have to go up against a tough secondary. The Saints were in the top 10 in allowing fantasy points to receivers. Diontae Johnson is the new WR1 for the Panthers. He will likely go up against Marshon Lattimore in a tough matchup. He should see a high volume of targets, but the production may be poor. He should be a WR4 in Week 1. Adam Thielen in the slot could have a better production day. His matchup is slightly easier than Johnson’s matchup. Thielen may not be one who many will start, but he does have some sleeper appeal in Week 1 as a WR5.

Chris Olave stands out as the lone Saints receiver to start in fantasy. He’ll likely go up against Jaycee Horn, who hasn’t completely lived up to his draft status. Olave should see the high target volume among these receivers and do well for himself in this matchup. I’d throw Olave out there as a WR1 in Week 1. Rashid Shaheed is, at best, a WR5 due to his downfield ability, but he is banged up, so he is a risky player to play.

Tight Ends

One position to not worry about right now in the Panthers offense is the tight ends. The Saints ranking in the bottom 10 against the position. Rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders may get the start with Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble both OUT. I’m not holding my breath on Sanders and should be considered outside the top 24 for Week 1.

The Saints tight ends could be a headache, but the return of Juwan Johnson can help give some consistency to the position. The Panthers were a lousy team against fantasy tight ends last season. Johnson is the perfect tight end over the middle of the field to give Carr a safety option in this game. He’ll always have a chance in the red zone since Carr loves throwing to his tight ends. He is a solid TE2 in Week 1. As for Taysom Hill, he is a wild card, you don’t want to start. He could easily finish with 24 fantasy points or 3. You must be a risk-taker to play Hill in Week 1.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• Weather – Indoors
• Atlanta Falcons are favored (-3.5) & Over/Under 41.5

Quarterbacks

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going with Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback for Week 1. Wilson will go up against a revamped pass defense in the Falcons. Last year, the Falcons were a below-average team, but they made major improvements to their secondary this offseason. Wilson will manage this game as the defense tries to contain the Falcons offense. Wilson is a QB3 in Week 1. Wilson may not play in this game, so you may want to focus on Justin Fields. Fields has a high-end QB2 upside with his rushing ability if he gets the start. Fields will be sloppy most of the game, but his rushing value will save his day.

• Game Day Fact: Russell Wilson has averaged 264 passing yards and 2 touchdowns versus the Falcons in his career.

Week 1 will be Kirk Cousins‘ first game back on the field after tearing his Achilles in October. Cousins isn’t going to get an easy matchup to start the season. The Steelers are a top-10 defense that will pressure Cousins and have a secondary that will be tough to throw on. Not sure this will be a high-scoring game, so Cousins may be more of a game manager in Week 1. He is better off as a QB2 in this matchup. We aren’t sure how much the Achilles will affect his play on the field. He could be fine if he is still the old Cousins, but coming off the injury lowers his value.

Running Backs

The Steelers backfield is going to have a tough matchup for Week 1. The Falcons defense has a history with the Steelers offensive scheme. They were a team in the top five in run defense last season, and the loss of Calais Campbell could be an issue. Najee Harris should see most of the touches in the backfield, with Jaylen Warren just coming off an injury. Harris should see a bump with Wilson at quarterback, who will likely dump the ball off when he can’t find anything downfield. The volume will push Harris to an RB2 value. Jaylen Warren is slightly concerning for Week 1 as they may ease him on the field. He is better off as a RB4.

The Falcons backfield hopes to explode in 2024 under the new coaching regime. The Steelers run defense was below average allowing high yardage last season. They did get a few impactful players in the front seven, so they could be a stronger unit in Week 1. Bijan Robinson is ready to start his breakout season. The coaching staff has already said they want to use Robinson’s abilities as much as possible. There should be no question that he doesn’t end up as an RB1 in Week 1. He’ll see the majority of the touches and be heavily involved in the passing game with Cousins.

Tyler Allgeier is a wild card since the last regime used him often in games. I’m not sure he will be used as much in Week 1 because it is likely a low scoring game. He’ll get a few touches here and there, but it won’t be enough in Week 1 to have standalone value this week.

Wide Receivers

It will be a tough task for the Steelers receivers to win in Week 1. The Falcons ranked in the top 10 in stopping fantasy points to receivers in 2023. George Pickens should lead this team in targets for Week 1. He is going to have a tough matchup against cornerback AJ Terrell. Pickens will get shots downfield to make big plays in this game. Look for Pickens to finish as a WR3 in Week 1. I’m not sure you could consider Van Jefferson or Calvin Austin in fantasy. Austin does have a favorable matchup in the slot, but it is risky to trust in lineups.

All eyes will be on Drake London in this matchup. The Steelers had an average secondary last season, which allowed production to fantasy receivers. He’ll likely go up against cornerback Donte Jackson, which he should be able to produce against. London should be a top two in targets on the team and have great production. London should be considered a WR2 in Week 1. Darnell Mooney sneaks into my top 60 receivers as a WR5. The defense could focus on London and Kyle Pitts, leaving Mooney chances for more one-on-one opportunities in the offense.

Tight Ends

The Steelers tight end room is where we may find their second-leading pass catcher in the offense. The Falcons were a team that ranked in the bottom 10 in defending tight ends. Pat Freiermuth will look to rebound after a poor 2023 season. The one issue is how much time Freiermuth splits with Darnell Washington. We know in this offensive scheme is favorable for tight ends which is encouraging for Freiermuth in Week 1. Look for Freiermuth to see a solid target share and be a threat in the red zone. He is a borderline TE 1 in this matchup.

Kyle Pitts hopes to live up to his potential, starting with a decent matchup. The Steelers were an average team against fantasy tight ends last year. The Falcons will try to get Kyle Pitts in space and allow him to do what he wants when he has the ball in his hands. I expect Pitts to have higher receptions and lower yardage in this game. Pitts should remain an option for Cousins in the red zone if they do get there. Pitts is a TE1 in this matchup.

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

• Sunday: 1:00 pm @ Lucas Oil Stadium
• Weather – Indoors
• Houston Texans are favored (-3) with an Over/Under 48.5

Quarterbacks

CJ Stroud is looking to take off heading into year two. He’ll face a Colts defense, which was pretty average in 2023. Stroud was excellent against the Colts as a rookie, throwing for high yardage. The Texans should attempt to get Stroud going early with his new-look offense. This could be a high-scoring game that will see the passing game take off. He should be a QB1 in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: CJ Stroud averaged 24 fantasy points per game last year vs. the Colts.

On the Colts side of the ball, we see another 2023 rookie in Anthony Richardson. This will be Richardson’s first game since week 5 of last year. What we can expect is that Richardson is going to run with the ball, so he should have a rushing floor in this game. The Texans were a below-average team against fantasy quarterbacks. Richardson’s fantasy value will come down to his legs. His passing value could range from elite to horrible in Week 1. His rushing ability will keep him as a low-end QB1 in this matchup.

• Game Day Fact: Anthony Richardson had 17 fantasy points in week 2 against the Texans depsite playing only half the game.

Running Backs

We will get a first look at Joe Mixon in this Texans backfield. The Colts defense was a bottom-five run defense in 2023. They didn’t make enough improvements on this front-seven to give confidence they got better. This offense will feature Mixon in the offense with a full workload. We saw the Texans do that with their RB1 last season. I like Joe Mixon as a borderline RB1. Dameon Pierce is the supposed backup, but I’m not sure how much of a workload he’ll have in Week 1. The Texans don’t give enough to their backup to be fantasy relevant. I wouldn’t be surprised if a player like Cam Akers sees work after a great preseason. Both are outside the top 48 running backs.

• Game Day Fact: Joe Mixon played the Colts last year and finished as an RB1.

We will get a first look at Jonathan Taylor in the same backfield as Richardson. He’ll face the Texans, who were an average run defense last season. They made some additions to the front line with Danielle Hunter signing. Taylor is one of the few workhorse running backs in the league. He should consume most of the touches in the backfield in Week 1. Despite the slightly challenging matchup, Taylor should be valued as an RB1. He’ll find his production thanks to Richardson’s presence on the field. Trey Sermon is the backup, but he doesn’t have top-48 running back value in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Taylor has averaged 135 rushing yards and a touchdown in 6 career games versus Houston.

Wide Receivers

The Texans receivers will be another position that will be watched closely in Week 1. The Colts were an above-average defense in stopping fantasy points to receivers per game. It was more likely that the Colts couldn’t stop anyone on the ground, so the secondary was given breaks in games last year. It will all come down to targets for the trio of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell. Regarding matchup, Nico Collins has the easiest against JuJu Brents, who was not good last year. Collins should get 5-plus targets in this game and use his YAC ability to produce. He is a high-end WR2 in this matchup.

Newcomer Stefon Diggs is going to be a risky start. His matchup isn’t bad, but we don’t know how his chemistry with Stroud will be on the field. Since the matchup is favorable, he is a WR3 that you can flex. I’d expect a range of outcomes from Diggs in this game, which would make him risky. Tank Dell will have a tough matchup in the slot against Kenny Moore, who is a great slot corner. Dell is more of a WR4 in this game. My concern is whether Dell will see enough targets in a difficult matchup.

• Game Day Fact: Nico Collins averages 27 fantasy points in 2 games versus the Colts in 2023.

The Colts receivers will have a tough time on Sunday against the Texans secondary. They allowed the second-fewest touchdowns last year, and that group has grown in talent. Michael Pittman Jr, the Colts top receiver, will have a tough matchup against Devin Stingley Jr. Last year, Pittman struggled against him in matchups that led to low fantasy output. Pittman’s production under Richardson was very inconsistent over the first four weeks. Pittman is going to get plenty of targets, but he may struggle to move the ball with this tough secondary. Pittman is a borderline WR2 in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Michael Pittman Jr. has averaged 53 receiving yards in 8 career games against the Texans.

Tight Ends

For the tight end, Dalton Schultz‘s fantasy value comes down to targets in this offense. The Colts are a good matchup for Schultz, but his pecking order for targets could be 4th or 5th in the offense. Schultz struggled last year when the top receivers were healthy on the field. Schultz may have gotten that new contract, but that doesn’t mean he will be a main target for Stroud. He is a TE2 in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Just once did Dalton Schultz have over 10 fantasy points when 2 or more receivers on the team had double-digit fantasy points.

The Colts tight ends are not a fantasy-relevant position in Week 1. Jelani Woods is out for the season, so we’ll have a combination of Kylen Granson, Moe Ali-Cox, and Will Mallory. Last year, Kylen Granson finished as TE34 in points per game (4.9). They are all outside the top 24 tight ends for Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: No Colts tight end averaged over 50% of the snaps last season.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers

• Sunday: 4:05 pm @ SoFi Stadium
• Weather – Indoors
• Los Angeles Chargers are favored (-3) with an Over/Under 42.5

Quarterbacks

Raiders’ new starting quarterback, Garnder Minshew, is making his debut against the Chargers. The Chargers were a bottom-10 pass defense last season. They allowed the second most passing yards to quarterbacks. Minshew has been known as a gunslinger and will throw the ball in the riskiest ways. Minshew could end up with a solid fantasy day, but a turnover or two is possible. Minshew has sneaky value as a low-end QB2 in Week 1.

Justin Herbert isn’t exactly hyping up fantasy owners right now. The Raiders pass defense is starting to turn into a great one. It seems like the Chargers are turning to a run-first offense, turning Herbert into a game manager. We could see Herbert being limited by his pass attempts in this game as they established the run. Herbert has typically succeeded against the Raiders in fantasy, but this new scheme could hurt Herbert’s upside in Week 1. Herbert should be a mid-range QB2 in fantasy.

Running Backs

For the Raiders backfield, it’s finally time for Zamir White to step up as the RB1. The Chargers were a below-average run defense last season. They were a defense that was a favorable opponent for running backs, especially those who were used in the passing game. If the Raiders continue to give White 20-plus touches, then he should be successful in this game. On the ground, they will give White a shot to be that workhorse back in Week 1. They may rotate the passing downs work with the backups. White should be a low-end RB2 for Week 1. Alexander Mattison will get some work but is outside the top 48 running backs.

The Chargers new offense is going to feature the run game. The Raiders run defense was in the bottom 10 in the league. They did make a big splash by signing Christian Wilkins, who had the fourth-best PFF run grade last year. Starter Gus Edwards will get the first crack in the offense. Edwards should get between 15 and 18 carries in this game. His upside is capped since Edwards likely won’t see many targets in this game. He is a high-end RB3 with hopes of scoring a touchdown. The receiving work in this offense could go to JK Dobbins, but he has never been much of a receiving back. He is a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers

Veteran Devante Adams will highlight the Raiders pass catchers. The Chargers secondary was a bottom-four unit against fantasy receivers. They allowed high yardage and touchdowns in 2023. Davante Adams will benefit from the addition of Minshew, who should hyper-target him in the offense. Adams will play against Asante Samuel Jr., who he has the size advantage over to dominate on Sunday. Adams should finish as a WR1 in Week 1. Jakobi Meyers has a favorable matchup for himself against a below-average Kristian Fulton. I’m not sure Minshew will get two great receivers, but he can help Meyers to WR4 value in this matchup.

The Chargers receivers will have a tough matchup with an improving Raiders secondary. Joshua Palmer should be the WR1 in terms of targets for Week 1. Palmer will get an average matchup against the Raiders outside corners. Palmer’s targets should help him be at least a high-end WR4 in Week 1. Rookie Ladd McConkey has a solid matchup against Nate Hobbs, who he could beat in this matchup. I did not expect a big day from the passing game, so McConkey is valued as a low-end WR4.

Tight Ends

This will be rookie Brock Bowers‘ debut in the NFL. He’ll have a tough matchup to start in Week 1. He will face a Chargers team with an above-average defense playing tight ends in 2023. Bowers may split snaps early with former starter Michael Mayer in the early portion of the season. We also have to see if Minshew will throw to his tight ends, as it was something he failed to do last year. I’ll pump the breaks on Bowers having an elite first game. He is a high-end TE2 for me.

The Chargers tight end room will likely rotate between Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly. The Raiders were an elite team in defending fantasy tight ends. Hurst is likely going to take the passing downs work in the offense. The good thing for the tight ends is that Herbert has given them success in the Chargers offense. Hurst is a borderline TE2 in Week 1, but his success will come if he scores a touchdown.

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks

• Sunday: 4:05 pm @ Lumen Field
• Weather – Mostly Sunny
• Seattle Seahawks are favored (-6) with an Over/Under 41.5

Quarterbacks

Rookie Bo Nix is making his NFL debut against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have a solid pass defense that will cause issues for the Nix. Nix doesn’t have a strong cast around him to trust him in Week 1. He could have some sneaky sleeper appeal if he can run with the ball. Nix has shown the ability to produce rushing yards. Seattle struggled to stop quarterback rushing yards. He is a QB3 in this matchup.

• Game Day Fact: Bo Nix has a 76% completion percentage during the preseason. Expect yardage from Nix, but likely not touchdowns.

Geno Smith is looking to rebound in this new-age offense under OC Ryan Grubb. Smith has a favorable matchup against a Denver secondary who lost a key piece in safety Justin Simmons. They were a pass defense at the bottom 10 yards and touchdowns to quarterbacks. Smith has the weapons to be successful as a high-end QB2. Look for Smith to score a few passing touchdowns in a favorable matchup. Grubb had one of the highest yardage offenses in college, which he should bring to this Seattle offense for Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Geno Smith was QB 12 in PPG (18.7) during the final 8 weeks of 2023.

Running Backs

For the Broncos, the backfield will be leaned on in Week 1. Seattle was a bottom 2 run defense in 2023. They allowed the second most touchdowns and high yardage on the groud and air. Javonte Williams will be the starter who will see at least 60% of the workload. You should expect multiple running backs to be involved during this game. Williams should have a solid day against a poor Seattle front seven. He should be looked at as a low-end RB2.

Speaking of other running backs being involved, that should be Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime. Estime is likely not a top-48 running back in Week 1, as he shouldn’t see enough work to produce. He could see some short-yardage or goal-line work if it comes to that. McLaughlin will likely see the passing downs work and fill in as a change-of-pace player. McLaughlin has potential as an RB4 in this matchup.

• Game Day Fact: Williams finished RB 29 (11.4) ppg despite coming off 2 major knee surgeries.

For the Seattle backfield, Ken Walker is taking the reins as the starting running back. He has a fantastic matchup against a Broncos run defense that was in the bottom three in the league last year. The new coaching staff seems to favor Ken Walker, and he should see the majority of the workload. Look for Walker to be a low-end RB1. Zach Charbonnet has been quiet this offseason, and it looks like his role has shrunk. His best chance is to be used on passing downs, but he is a borderline RB4 in this matchup.

• Game Day Fact: When Ken Walker had 17 plus carries, he finished with 17.6 ppg.

Wide Receivers

For the Broncos receivers, it’s not a pretty sight for fantasy. Courtland Sutton is the only one that I’d consider to trust in Week 1. Seattle had a down year in 2023, but they have an up-and-coming secondary. Sutton doesn’t have the easiest matchup but should see enough targets to make up for that. Don’t expect a big day from Sutton, but he is a WR4. Marvin Mims and Josh Reynolds‘ role should be one to watch but not worth starting yet in fantasy.

• Game Day Fact: Courtland Sutton had 60 or more yards in 8 of his 16 games in 2023.

The Seattle receivers will be the ones to watch with targets and snaps. The Broncos secondary did a great job stopping fantasy receivers from producing often. DK Metcalf has the tough matchup against Patrick Surtain II, who was elite at covering receivers last year. Due to Metcalf’s role as a downfield threat, we may see a down week from him. He is a borderline WR2, so he should be cautious about playing in Week 1.

Tyler Lockett has the easiest matchup but is dealing with a leg injury. He has some boom/bust appeal, so you could flex as a WR4 in this matchup. Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the slot should see a target uptake with or without Lockett on the field. The slot role thrived in a Grubbs offense so that he could have a strong day. He should be valued as a WR3 who could have a big day.

• Game Day Fact: Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged 12.14 fantasy points in 5 games where he saw 7 plus targets.

Tight Ends

For the Broncos, tight ends may be one to stay away from until we see who the main guy will be. The matchup is average, as Seattle wasn’t good or bad against tight ends. Adam Trautman is the starter, but Greg Dulcich has the upside as a receiver. Lucas Krull has been hyped up this offseason as a sleeper by the team. All three players are outside the top 24 tight ends in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Adam Trautman was the leading tight end for Denver as TE43 with 3.4 PPG.

Noah Fant returns as the top tight end for the Seahawks, but he was dealing with a toe injury all preseason. The matchup is favorable since Denver allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. If Fant can suit up, he has sleeper appeal in this game. I have him as a low-end TE2 since the injury may limit him on the field, even in a good matchup.   **

• Game Day Fact: Denver allowed 10 tight ends over 50 yards last season.

Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns

• Sunday: 4:25 pm @ Cleveland Browns Stadium
• Weather – Partly Cloudy
• Cleveland Browns are favored (-2.5) with an Over/Under 43.5

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott is coming into Week 1 in a tough matchup. The Browns were an elite pass defense in 2023. Prescott has always been a good quarterback who has handled pressure situations well. Regarding the road games, confidence seems to fall off a bit. The Browns will test Prescott, but this may not be his day in fantasy. I’d be hesitant to start Prescott in this road game and only see him as a mid-range QB2 in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Dak Prescott averaged 227 passing yards and a touchdown per road game in 2023.

**DeShaun Watson’**s first game after ending on IR in 2023 will be one to watch. He’ll have to play a Cowboys defense that ranked top 10 last season. Daron Bland is OUT with an injury, so their secondary is weakened. Watson is a risky fantasy player since he has dealt with soreness all off-season. Watson was surprisingly decent last year, but he is not the same player. I’m not trusting him in Week 1 and he is a QB3.

• Game Day Fact: DeShaun Watson had 6 turnovers in 6 games played in 2023.

Running Backs

The Cowboys’ backfield will be a mix of Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle. There was one part of the Browns defense that was lenient which was the run defense. Dowdle will be a surprise if he sees more work than Elliott. Dowdle should split the early downs with Elliott and handle the passing work on offense. Unless he scores, then he should only be a low-end RB3. Elliott would likely to see the short yardage and the red zone work. He is also a low-end RB3.

• Game Day Fact: The 2 times Rico Dowdle had over 10 carries, he combined them for 115 rushing yards.

For the Browns backfield, it will be led by Jerome Ford. He’ll face an above-average Cowboys run defense. There are some questions about whether their defensive line will be good enough to stop the run. Ford should see the majority of the workload in Week 1. His value will come in the receiving game for him. Since he needs to rely on his receiving value so much, he is an high end RB3 in Week 1. Donta Foreman or Pierre Strong may get some work, but not enough to be a top-48 running back.

• Game Day Fact: Jerome Ford averaged 12.4 PPG, taking over as the starter. He was RB21 for the rest of the season.

Wide Receivers

For the Cowboys receivers, the only one I want to trust is CeeDee Lamb. I don’t expect Lamb to come into this game rusty. He should be able to dominate playing in the slot against nickel corner Greg Newsome. He’ll lead the team in targets and finish as a WR1. Brandin Cooks is dealing with a knee injury but should play in this matchup. As long as Denzel Ward isn’t covering him, he should bring WR5 value. Jalen Tolbert could lineup across from Ward, so he is outside my top 60.

• Game Day Fact: CeeDee Lamb did not have a game under 10 fantasy points from week 8 last season.

For the Browns receivers, I’m going to trust Amari Cooper for Week 1. The Cowboys secondary ranked in the top 10 against fantasy receivers last season. Cooper will likely go up against Trevon Diggs, a very boom-or-bust cornerback. Cooper should be able to win against Diggs as he sometimes overshoots his coverage. He should be considered a mid-range WR2. Jerry Jeudy has a tough matchup in the slot, but I have him outside the top 60 in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Amari Cooper averaged 14.8 when DeShaun Watson was the starter.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson‘s matchup will be challenging since the Browns were a top-2 team against fantasy tight ends. The good thing for Ferguson is that Prescott will target him, especially around the end zone. Even with the target share, he’ll likely receive, it may be a touchdown or bust for him in Week 1. Due to the lack of tight ends and poor matchup from the TE2s in the league, Ferguson may still be an option. If Ferguson finished with six points, it may be enough to be a borderline TE1.

• Game Day Fact: Jake Ferguson ranked 1st in red zone targets, finishing with 25.

David Njoku is a tough player to judge for this game. He is likely the second-target leader but has a tough matchup. The Cowboys were an above-average team in stopping fantasy tight ends. Njoku didn’t play well with Watson on the field, as he was better with Joe Flacco. I consider Njoku a borderline TE1. It is not a great week for tight ends, so Njoku could finish with six or seven points, and be a borderline TE1.

• Game Day Fact: Njoku had just 2 of 6 games over 5 fantasy points with Watson on the field in 2023.

Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneeers

• Sunday: 4:25 pm @ Raymond James Stadium
• Weather – Partly Cloudy
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored (-3.5) & Over/Under 42.5

Quarterbacks

Rookie Jayden Daniels is making his NFL Debut. He’ll face a Bucs pass defense that was bottom 10 against fantasy quarterbacks. For Daniels’ skillset, the Buccaneers were a team that allowed a low rushing yardage to quarterbacks. Daniels will get a chance to run with the ball, and that will help his fantasy value despite the Bucs playing solid defense. Daniels is a good passer and will take shots downfield for big plays. Daniels should flash in his first NFL game and finish as a low-end QB1.

• Game Day Fact: Jayden Daniels averaged 95 rushing yards per game in college in 2023.

Baker Mayfield gets an easy Week 1 matchup against the Commanders. They were the worst team in stopping fantasy quarterbacks last season. They didn’t make many improvements that Mayfield shouldn’t be able to throw all over them. It will be interesting to see if the new OC, Liam Coen, helps or hurts Mayfield this season. Mayfield has excellent weapons around him, and he should be allowed to have a day. I have Mayfield as a low-end QB1 in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Baker Mayfield averaged 240 passing yards and almost 2 touchdowns in games the Bucs won last year.

Running Backs

The Commanders backfield will face an elite run defense in Tampa Bay. They were a top-5 unit that allowed only 5 rushing touchdowns last year. Brian Robinson Jr. will get the start in this game, with Austin Ekeler being more of the complement. Robinson should see the early down work, but it’s all Robinson if the Commanders get to the red zone. OC Kliff Kingsbury likes to use bigger backs in the redzone. He should be a mid-range RB3. Austin Ekeler’s value is hard to value since it will depend on his role. He should see passing work, but mobile quarterbacks don’t dump the ball off much. Ekeler is better off as a RB4.

• Game Day Fact: Kliff Kingsbury’s run game was top 10 in yards and touchdowns in 3 of his 4 years in Arizona

Rachaad White should lead this Buccaneers backfield in Week 1. The Commanders were a bottom-10 run defense, but they also didn’t make enough moves that White can’t do well. The one issue for White is how much will rookie Bucky Irving be involved. White should, for Week 1, lead the team in carries and have the passing downs work to himself. White is an RB1 in this matchup. If the Buccaneers get ahead, Bucky Irving should get some work and may have fourth-quarter value. He has low-end RB4 potential in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: White played 78% of the offensive snaps last season. Expect that to drop alittle bit.

Wide Receivers

The most important fantasy receiver for the Commanders is Terry McLaurin. He’ll have an easier matchup as the Bucs are a bottom-10 secondary that McLaurin should be able to beat. He’ll be shadowed by James Dean, who is an average cornerback in the league. With Daniels’s excellent deep ball traits, McLaurin should thrive in Week 1. McLaurin is a WR2 in this matchup. I’m not sure you could trust enough to consider players like Dyami Brown and Luke McCaffrey in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Jayden Daniels had the best deep ball completion of 63% in the class. Terry McLaurin’s downfield ability sees a boost.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should lead the receivers in receptions and yards against the Commanders. As I mentioned, the Commanders secondary is terrible, and both should be able to thrive in this matchup. Evans should be able to dominate against rookie Emmanuel Forbes and finish as a WR1. Chris Godwin, who is back in the slot, should do well regarding his fantasy value. Godwin has consistently produced more when he was in the slot. He has a low-end WR2 value. We may see a glimpse of Jalen McMillian, but he is outside the top 60 until he shows his role in the offense.

• Game Day Fact: The one time Chris Godwin played a high slot snap in a game in 2023, he had 10 catches for 155 yards.

Tight Ends

The Commanders tight end room has a great matchup against the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers allowed the third most fantasy points per game to tight ends last year. This game could split snaps between Zach Ertz and rookie Ben Sinnott. I’d have to lean on Zach Ertz to be the guy for Daniels on Sunday. He has experience in the offense and a good matchup to go with it. Ertz should be a mid-range TE2 in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Ertz was a top-10 tight end, averaging 11.8 PPG in 2 seasons under Kliff Kingsbury.

Cade Otton isn’t coming into Week 1 with a good matchup. The Commanders were an above-average team in stopping tight end production. Otton will likely be the fifth option in terms of targets on Sunday. He is outside my top 24 in Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Otton was TE25 in 2023 with 6.9 PPG.

Los Angeles Rams vs Detriot Lions

• SNF: 8:20 pm @ Ford Field
• Weather – Indoors
• Detriot Lions are favored (-4.5) & Over/Under 52.5

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford will be going up against an improved Lions pass defense. He should expect pressure most of the night, but the secondary is still a question mark after being in the bottom 5. Stafford may have some issues since left tackle Alaric Jackson is suspended for this game. Stafford has weapons to quickly get the ball out of his hands, so he should be fine in this game. This game is expected to be high-scoring, so expect Stafford to be throwing for a lot in this game. He should be a borderline QB1 if this game turns into a shootout on SNF.

• Game Day Fact: The last time Matthew Stafford played his former team, he had 334 passing yards and 3 touchdowns.

Jared Goff gets to lead the Lions offense in a favorable matchup in Week 1. The Rams were a bottom-10 defense against fantasy quarterbacks last year. The Rams made a few key additions like Kamren Curl and Tre’Davious White, but they are still a poor unit. Goff’s biggest threat is the run game, stealing away touchdowns. Goff has borderline QB1 value if he can land a few touchdowns in this game.

Running Backs

You should expect a mix of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum for the Rams backfield. They have the worst matchup, as the Lions were the best run-defense in football last season. They should continue to be that which is going to hurt this backfield. Kyren Williams should get more work than Blake Corum, especially in the receiving game. WIlliams should be the passing downs back in the offense. I value him more as an RB2 in Week 1. Blake Corum will see rushing work, but the key role will be if he gets work in the red zone. I’m not banking on that, so he is an RB4 in this matchup.

• Game Day Fact: Kyren Williams averaged 82 % of the offensive snaps in 2023; expect that drop in Week 1.

The Lions duo at running back may have a tough matchup. The Rams were the second-best run defense in football last year. They lost franchise player, Aarron Darnold, so don’t expect them to be as good in 2024. Jahmyr Gibbs, coming off an injury, should see his RB1A workload in this game. Gibbs was coming on strong at the end of the season, and he was the primary pass catcher. He remains an RB1 in this matchup. David Montgomery is also worth starting as a low-end RB2. Montgomery’s role in the red zone will be necessary for his value. He should split some of the early down work with Gibbs.

Wide Receivers

It will be a great matchup on Sunday night for the Rams receivers. The Lions made improvements, but not enough to turn it around yet. They are still a bottom-10 secondary going into 2024. Puka Nacua looks ready to go and should continue to act like the WR1 on this team. He should finish with WR1 value in Week 1. Cooper Kupp plays below-average defender Amik Robertson, and he should be able to win in the slot. I’d give Kupp mid-range WR2 in this game. Nacua and Kupp could easily swap finishes if Stafford wants to get back to his old friendship. DeMarcus Robinson sits at a WR5 since the Rams don’t have a confident tight end.

• Game Day Fact: Puka Nacua was WR12 per game with 15.7 points when Cooper Kupp played.

Amon-Ra St. Brown should be the only Lions receiver worth trusting in Week 1. His matchup could be challenging with Quentin Lake, but St.Brown is an elite player and shouldn’t lose production from it. In this game, he will finish with the most targets and be a WR1. Jameson Williams has been getting a lot of hype, but he will likely play against Tre’Davious White, who is still a good cornerback. He is probably more of a boom-or-bust WR5.

Tight Ends

Colby Parkinson will get the start with Tyler Higbee on the IR. Parkinson’s best value is his blocking ability, but he has shown the ability to be a threat in the passing game. Parkinson may be down on the pecking order, so the opportunity should be minimal. At best, he could be a low-end TE2 after week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Colby Parkinson averaged 30 yards when he saw 3 or more targets last year.

Sam LaPorta gets to go up against the second-worst team at covering fantasy tight ends last year. LaPorta is a big part of the Lions offense and should a top option in the red zone. He should be second in targets on the Lions once this week is over. He is one of the top-3 TE1 players in this matchup.

New York Jets vs San Francisco 49ers

• TNF: 8:20 pm @ Levi’sStadium
• Weather – Clear Night
• San Francisco 49ers are favored (-4.5) with an Over/Under 43.50

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers is getting a second chance as the Jets starting quarterback. He will not have an easy go around this time since he plays the 49ers. The 49ers defense was a top-10 defense against fantasy quarterbacks. Rodgers is coming off that Achilles injury, and we don’t have a lot of research on players coming off such an injury. Rodgers should be more of a game manager who will struggle against this elite defense. He is not a top-24 quarterback in Week 1 until he shows he can still be Rodgers.

• Game Day Fact: Aaron Rodgers has played 4 snaps as a New York Jet.

Brock Purdy is going to start Week 1 with a brutal matchup. The Jets were the best team in the league a year ago against fantasy quarterbacks. We could see a fresher Jets defense since their offense has improved, which won’t be great for Purdy. Purdy has all the weapons in the world, but he could struggle in this game. I see Purdy turning the ball over a few times and finishing as mid-range QB2 in Week 1.

Running Backs

The Jets backfield will need to step up in this game. Unfortunately, the 49ers were a top-5 run defense in 2023. Breece Hall will likely see the bulk of the workload as the team eases Rodgers back to his first game. Plus, Hall should receive a bump in targets, as Rodgers no longer has much mobility in his game. Hall should still be an RB1 despite it being a tough matchup. His receiving value will keep him as an elite fantasy option. You should also see Braelon Allen will likely see some groundwork, so I wouldn’t trust him as a top-48 running back in this matchup.

• Game Day Fact: In the final 9 games of 2023, Breece Hall was RB3 in fantasy points per game by averaging 20 points.

Christian McCaffrey is an auto start, no matter the situation. Yes, he is dealing with a calf injury, but the Jets were a bottom-10 run unit last season. I expect the 49ers to attempt to give McCaffrey as much work as he can handle in this game. To avoid that Jets secondary, look for Purdy to dump the ball off to McCaffrey often. He is an RB1 in Week 1. Backup Jordan Mason may get some work, but it is likely not enough to trust in Week 1.

Wide Receivers

The only one I’m trusting for the Jets receivers is Garrett Wilson. Wilson’s matchup isn’t as bad, but he’ll go against Charvarius Ward in this game. Wilson should be given a high target share as Rodgers’ favorite target in this offense. Wilson is a better high-end WR2 than WR1 in Week 1. Mike Williams will be on a pitch count, so he is already outside the top 60 receivers. I wouldn’t entertain any other Jet receiver.

• Game Day Fact: Garrett Wilson saw double-digit targets in 9 of 17 games. He averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game.

The 49ers receivers will have a difficult matchup in this game. The Jets’ secondary ranked first in stopping production for fantasy receivers. Brandon Aiyuk is likely going to play against Sauce Gardner in this game. Aiyuk hasn’t been with the team that long in the offseason, so I’m nervous about this play in Week 1. AIyuk is more of a WR3 option than a safe WR2 play. Deebo Samuel may be the better receiver option in this game. If McCaffrey is limited in any way, then Samuel may get touches in the backfield. Samuel has been a good fantasy option when he sees rushing attempts. He is a better WR2 in Week 1.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin‘s matchup will not be easy since the 49ers defense was great at stopping fantasy tight ends. Conklin would likely to be second in targets in this game since there is not a good second option as a receiver. Rodgers has always targeted his tight ends in the red zone, so keep your eyes on Conklin in those situations. Unfortunately, unless he scores a touchdown, it’s going to be a tough night for Conklin. He is a mid-range TE2 in this matchup.

• Game Day Fact: Tyler Conklin ranked 16th in red zone targets but had zero touchdowns.

George Kittle will have the easiest coverage among the pass catchers. Kittle’s fantasy value has always been up and down due to his role on the team. If the defense is going to focus on the receivers, Kittle could have one of his boom days on the offense. Kittle remains a TE1 option in Week 1.

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