After another dominant season with the Buffalo Bills in which Stefon Diggs finished as a top-five fantasy wide receiver, what does he have in store for the 2023 season? Is it another WR1 year, or could there be a looming let-down when considering his age and the fact the Bills added Dalton Kincaid to their offense? Is Stefon Diggs even still a top-five dynasty wide receiver? Let’s find out.
2022 Season Recap
Diggs once again had a terrific season with the Buffalo Bills. He led the team in nearly all the receiving categories. He saw his third-highest targets yet with 154 and caught 108 for the second-highest yardage total in his career at 1,429. Digg added in a career-high 11 touchdowns and 74 first downs. He was the go-to target for quarterback Josh Allen. That will remain the case this year.
The All-Pro Pro Bowler was lethal before the catch with a deep target of 9.4 yards before the reception, and Allen had a QBR of 121.3 when throwing to him. Every stat you look at for Diggs was elite. He averaged 9.6 targets per game, along with 6.75 catches and 89.31 yards per game. Those are solid numbers. You were ecstatic with his 19.7 PPR ppg if you had him in fantasy. Diggs was top-ten in fantasy points per target as well, with 2.07. That’s a massive number when you consider just how many targets he had. We want guys that can score a lot of points with a large number of targets. That’s Diggs to a tee.
2023 Season Projection
This year will continue the elite run of seasons that Diggs has had with the Buffalo Bills. This will be his fourth season in a row with over 150 targets, 100 receptions, and 1,200 yards, and his third year in a row with 10+ touchdowns. By all accounts, Diggs will be a top-five finisher at the wide receiver position in fantasy football.
This could honestly be lower than what he finishes with. I projected Dalton Kincaid and James Cook to see their targets rise. If they don’t, or if Gabe Davis or any other wide receivers miss time, Allen will just pepper Diggs with targets. That’s what you want out of your dynasty wide receivers. You want them to be thrown at a ton. In this case, Diggs is getting 9.29 targets per game, just slightly under last year’s total. Plus, when you look at fantasy points per route run, an excellent indicator for future success, Diggs had 0.63 last year! That was fourth in the NFL. He will have a fantastic season for your contending dynasty once again. Enjoy it while you can.
Long-Term Dynasty Outlook
Diggs is an elite dynasty asset in the short term. He’s already 30 years old, and his prime is not open for much longer. He should have at least two-three more WR1 years in him, especially if he stays with Allen. However, I’d be looking to sell unless you’re win-now right now. He just had a fantastic season. See if you can’t get a mid-first-round pick for him, a first-round pick, and a second or another young player like Quentin Johnston or Jonathan Mingo. Diggs will be an elite WR1 this year, but Father Time is undefeated. I’d look at trading him for some younger guys or picks unless you plan to do all you can to win this year.
Make your plans according to how your team looks and be fast to adapt should your team fail to compete this year beyond Diggs. He’s a locked-in WR1, but for how long? Time only knows, and you don’t want to be stuck holding the bag or fail to get appropriate value for a premium asset like Diggs. He is a top-five dynasty wide receiver this year, but he won’t be next year. That’s due to age. Remember to sell when the price is high versus losing your profits.
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As always, May the Force be with You…
