Hello and welcome back, Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly starts and sits. I will be doing the WR starts and sits for the 2023 season! We, as a group, will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings from FantasyPros. Here is our squad and the position groups they will be covering to help you each week. Follow, DM, and Tweet us.

We look forward to hearing from you!

One thing to keep in mind when making your start/sit decisions, it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. The players listed below are WRs that I expect to finish above/below their respective rankings. But it doesn’t mean you need to take them out of (or put them into) your lineup unless your alternatives are worth it.

NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.

RECAP

Before we get into the recap of last week’s picks, let’s go over how I determine the success and failure of my picks: 

1. Regardless of whether I have a player listed as a start or sit, if they get injured during the game where it significantly impacts their fantasy output, it is ruled a no decision based upon injury.
2. If a player finishes within a handful of spots of their ranking, either above or below, it is considered a push. 
3. My goal is always to get all my picks correct. 

However, I consider above 50% a moderately successful week. Let’s get to it.

Last week was mediocre for my start/sit calls. I only had two of my six picks that had a result. My best call was to ‘start’ Ja’Marr Chase with Jake Browning under center. He was ranked as WR14 coming into the week and finished at WR6. My worst call was to ‘start’ Chris Godwin. He was ranked at WR30 for the week and finished 10 spots below that. He had a tough game but managed to score on a rushing attempt to salvage his day. My other four picks were all under the “push” category because they finished either slightly above or slightly below their respective ranking—time to get to this week’s picks.

START

Adam Thielen, Panthers – WR 30

Week 13 Stats | WR 51 | FPts: 5.5 | Tgts: 6 | Rec: 3 | Yds: 25 | TDs: 0 

My first ‘start’ this week is Adam Thielen. He has struggled a bit over the last two games, only catching 4 passes for 27 yards on 9 targets. But, prior to that, Thielen had been an integral part of the Carolina offense. I would normally be a bit concerned with the decrease in usage, especially after a coaching change, but I am not. Despite the recent struggles, Thielen is still the 13th most-targeted receiver in the NFL. He is also one of the best (and only) weapons the Carolina Panthers have.

The Panthers are taking on the Saints this week, who should have Derek Carr throwing passes. It’s no secret that the Carolina Panthers are not a very good football team. So, I expect to see them trailing and needing to air out the ball early and often. Adam Thielen should be a significant beneficiary, and you should have him in your lineup.

Chris Godwin, Bucs – WR 35

Week 13 Stats | WR 40 | FPts: 7.9 | Tgts: 3 | Rec: 0 | Yds: 0 | TDs: 1 (rush)

Chris Godwin is my next ‘start’ for this week. He burned me last week, finishing ten spots lower than his ranking. However, I am once again rolling out Chris Godwin for Week 14. Last week, Godwin saw a season-low three targets and failed to record a reception. I expect that to change this week.

The Bucs face off against the Falcons, who have a relatively average pass and rush defense. However, Tampa Bay has the third-worst rush offense in the NFL. I expect them to again rely on Baker Mayfield’s arm to win this game. Get Godwin in your lineup this week.

Drake London, Falcons – WR 30

Week 13 Stats | WR 83 | FPts: 1.8 | Tgts: 5 | Rec: 1 | Yds: 8 | TDs: 0

My next ‘start’ for this week is a receiver on the other sideline in the Tampa Bay vs Atlanta game. I am starting Drake London. The reasoning for London as a ‘start’ is pretty straightforward. The Bucs have a very bad pass defense and a very good rush defense. We know that Atlanta likes to run the ball, but the way to attack this team is through the air.

In their last meeting, London caught 6 of his 7 targets. I think we can once again expect that kind of target load as a floor, with the potential for a big game. Additionally, London had a bad game last week, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be a bigger part of the game plan in this one.

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks – WR 31

Week 13 Stats | WR 39 | FPts: 9.7 | Tgts: 8 | Rec: 5 | Yds: 47 | TDs: 0 

Tyler Lockett is my final ‘start’ for Week 14. This is, again, a pretty straightforward ‘start’ decision. Tyler Lockett has been a solid, consistent contributor for most of this year. His 87 targets through 13 weeks are tied for 21st most among all receivers. He is rarely a flashy option, but he is usually a very reliable one.

This week, he and the Seahawks are taking on the very talented San Francisco defense. We saw this matchup only a couple of weeks ago on Thanksgiving. In that game, the 49ers bottled up Seattle offensively. While I expect this game to be challenging for the Seahawks, the way to attack the 49ers defense is through the air. They are near the middle of the league in passing yards allowed per game but are the best team against the run. We can expect Geno Smith to throw the ball regularly in this one, and he should be looking Lockett’s way quite frequently. I am starting Tyler Lockett in my playoff matchups, and so should you.

SIT

Gabe Davis, Bills – WR 33

Week 13 Stats | WR x | FPts: x.x | Tgts: x | Rec: x | Yds: x | TDs: x (BYE) 

My first ‘sit’ for Week 14 is Gabe Davis against the Chiefs. This one may be tough to do, considering when we last saw the Bills play, Davis went off for 6 catches, 105 yards, and a score on 12 targets. We also all know what he did when he played Kansas City in the postseason a couple of years ago. However, I am here to once again remind you of the extreme volatility that comes with relying on Davis as a starter for your fantasy team.

Prior to his outburst against the Eagles, Davis failed to record more than 10 fantasy points in five of his last six games. Furthermore, he scored 3.1, 1.6, 0.0, and 0.0 in four of those six games. His one usable game since Week 5 was against Tampa’s porous secondary. The Chiefs have one of the better pass defenses in the NFL, allowing only 183 yards passing per game, which is 6th best in the entire league. I’m staying away from Gabe Davis this week.

Calvin Ridley, Jaguars – WR 32

Week 13 Stats | WR 44 | FPts: 7.3 | Tgts: 8 | Rec: 4 | Yds: 26 | TDs: 0 

My final ‘sit’ for Week 14 is Calvin Ridley. This call heavily depends on whether Trevor Lawrence plays for the Jags. If CJ Beathard is under center, then there is no way that Calvin Ridley will get anywhere near my starting lineup. If Lawrence does play, I am still inclined to look elsewhere for a fantasy wideout. The Jags play a very tough Browns secondary on the road in less-than-ideal conditions for passing the ball. Cleveland has allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL. Thankfully, this game kicks off at 1 pm ET, so we will know early enough to pivot elsewhere. But if you have another feasible option, I’d recommend sitting Ridley in this one.

That’s it for Week 14. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@THEtristancook) if you have any specific questions about who I would start. 

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