Hello and welcome back, Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly starts and sits. I will be doing the WR starts and sits for the 2022 season! As a group, we will make our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings from FantasyPros. Here is our squad and the position groups they will be covering to help you each week. Follow us, DM us, tweet us, and we look forward to hearing from you!
QB: Jason Snyder (@Spydes78) – Changing the Call
RB: Jake Oliver (@DarthDbacks) – The Cutback
WR: Tristan Cook (@THEtristancook) – Slant Pattern
TE: Ethan Wyatt (@ethanAwyatt) – 12 Formation
FLEX: Evan Brown (@FFEVanlution) – Flex on ‘Em
IDP: Jon Glosser (@Glosser13) – IDP Start/Sit
One thing to keep in mind when making your start/sit decisions, it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. The players listed below are WRs that I expect to finish above/below their respective rankings. But, it doesn’t mean you need to take them out of (or put them into) your lineup unless your alternatives are worth it.
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.
RECAP
I had an excellent start to the 2022 season, hitting on three of my four ‘start’ calls. Christian Kirk, Michael Thomas, and Amon-Ra St. Brown finished at least 15 spots above their weekly ranking. My one ‘miss’ was Hunter Renfrow, who had a brutal day. He only tallied 21 yards receiving on three catches. I think better days are ahead for him, but it was a disappointing start to the year. My two ‘sit’ calls weren’t great. In his Eagles debut, AJ Brown had a massive day, catching ten of thirteen targets for 155 yards. I had the wrong Eagles’ receiver as a ‘sit.’ Tyreek Hill was my other ‘sit,’ and while he finished five spots below his ranking, he was still a solid WR2 on the week. Time to try to improve for Week 2; let’s ride.
STARTS
Christian Kirk vs. IND – WR 28
Week 1 Stats | WR 19 | FPts: 17.7 | Tgts: 12 | Rec: 6 | Yds: 117 | TDs: 0
My first ‘start’ this week is a holdover from Week 1. Despite finishing as a mid-range WR2 on the week, Kirk still seems to be undervalued. If you didn’t get a chance to catch much of the Jags/Commanders game, you missed seeing Kirk heavily targeted by Trevor Lawrence. Kirk had a ridiculous 38.1% target share of the Week 1 passing attack for Jacksonville.
This week the Jags face off against Indianapolis, who tied Houston last week. Indy’s defense didn’t appear to be too scary, so the matchup is not one I’m at all worried about. Jacksonville tends to play the Colts well, but regardless of how this game goes, if Kirk continues to see this kind of target share, he’ll be a ‘start’ every week. Find a way to get him in your lineup.
Adam Thielen @ PHI – WR 30
Week 1 Stats | WR 66 | FPts: 6.6 | Tgts: 4 | Rec: 3 | Yds: 36 | TDs: 0
Unlike Kirk, Thielen is coming off an abysmal 12.5% target share against the Packers. It’s crystal clear who Minnesota’s top receiving option is, but I expect to see Thielen bounce back this week. This offense should be good enough to support more than Justin Jefferson in the passing game, and we know Kirk Cousins hasn’t been afraid to look Thielen’s way frequently in the past.
Minnesota faces off with Philadelphia this week. I’m not going to read too heavily into any defense based on one week, but the Eagles don’t scare me. If they’re going to slow down this Vikings offense, they will have to try to limit Jefferson. That lends itself to an opportunity for Thielen to succeed. I think he should outperform his WR30 ranking.
Jerry Jeudy vs. HOU – WR 23
Week 1 Stats | WR 12 | FPts: 20.2 | Tgts: 7 | Rec: 4 | Yds: 102 | TDs: 1
We weren’t quite sure what to expect from the Denver Broncos in Week 1, and needless to say, it was a less-than-stellar performance. Jeudy was one of the only bright spots, however. He hauled in this long reception early in the game:
I expect Denver to bounce back as an offense this week as they battle the division-leading Houston Texans. If you’re worried that most of his fantasy production came from one play, I wouldn’t be. He put up a WR1 week for a Denver offense that couldn’t get out of its way. His 16.7% target share isn’t ideal, but I think that number will increase this week. I’m playing Jeudy if I have him.
SITS
Gabe Davis vs. TEN – WR 19
Week 1 Stats | WR 14 | FPts: 18.8 | Tgts: 5 | Rec: 4 | Yds: 88 | TDs: 1
Davis continued his touchdown barrage by scoring early in the Thursday Night Football season opener. I hope you played him against the Rams if you have Davis on your roster. Unfortunately, like all good things, I think it’s coming to an end.
I know there’s been tons and tons of debate surrounding Davis and if he’s “legit.” I don’t need to get into all that. I’ll say this touchdown reception pace is not sustainable. Banking on him catching touchdown passes each week will eventually come back to bite you. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him kept out of the end zone in Week 2. If you need any more evidence of how wild this touchdown streak is, I’ll leave you with this:
Allen Robinson vs. ATL – WR 27
Week 1 Stats | WR 106 | FPts: 2.2 | Tgts: 2 | Rec: 1 | Yds: 12 | TDs: 0
Robinson is my next ‘sit’ for Week 2. You may have forgotten that A-Rob went to the Rams this off-season because you didn’t see him do much of anything in the aforementioned Thursday Night Football season opener. He was on the field for a good amount of snaps but only saw a 4.9% target share of Matt Stafford’s passes. He only had two passes thrown his way in a game where the Rams were trailing most of the time.
I haven’t been much of a believer in Robinson, but there’s no way you should be putting him in your lineup this week. Is it possible that he’ll blow up out of nowhere? Sure. But until we see him put up any kind of usable fantasy numbers, he’ll be on my bench if he’s on my roster.
Darnell Mooney @ GB – WR 26
Week 1 Stats | WR 111 | FPts: 1.8 | Tgts: 3 | Rec: 1 | Yds: 8 | TDs: 0
My final ‘sit’ for this week is former Tulane receiver Mooney. Despite only seeing three targets, he accounted for a 17.6% target share. Chicago only passed the ball 17 times in the monsoon that was the Week 1 game against San Francisco. It didn’t provide the most entertaining football, but it gave us this.
Anyway, it’s hard to take away anything too meaningful from that game. So I’m not too concerned about the three targets. But I am worried about this Chicago offense as a whole. Justin Fields hasn’t exactly inspired as a passer, and the Packers are coming off an embarrassing Week 1 loss to Minnesota. I am sure Fields will throw the ball more than 17 times, but I don’t think this passing attack is good enough to trust. I’m looking elsewhere this week if I can.
That’s it for week 2; feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@THEtristancook) if you have any specific questions about who I would start.
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There are also weekly office hours in the Facebook group and on Twitter each Sunday morning before the early games kick-off. A handful of writers will answer all the questions posted, so you can usually get a few different takes on your situation. Make sure to come back next week to see how these picks turned out. Good luck!
