Each week I will take a look at how some of the rookies performed and what impact that makes on their dynasty stock. I will look at the snap counts and if the player is being productive with the opportunity. What is the cost to acquire the player? Do I think the player will be productive going forward or just had a good week?
Let’s look at the Week 3 rookies.
Isaih Pacheco, RB Kansas City Chiefs
2/6/0; 5 snaps (8%)
Here’s hoping you didn’t hastily activate Pacheco from the taxi squad after his garbage time hero Week 1 volume. Pacheco is operating as an RB3 on a pass-first team. His value to the Chiefs is on special teams. I think he has a bright future and will be the RB2 for the team in 2023.
Breece Hall, RB New York Jets
8/39/0 ru / 11/6/53/0 rec; 40 (51%)
Hall barely edged out teammate Michael Carter 51%/49% in snaps in Week 3. Hall out-touched Carter 19-13 as well. This is a split that could flip-flop weekly, but it looks like the edge in the all-important receiving game is going to Hall. Hall currently sits at RB9 on the week with Monday Night Football yet to play. The real question– how does the return of Zach Wilson affect the Jets production?
Jaylen Warren, RB Pittsburgh Steelers
4/30/0 ru / 1/1/3/0/ rec; 12 (20%)
Warren is a handcuff at this point. He did show some pop again in relief of Harris in Week 3. If you are looking for a plug and play handcuff, this is your guy. If I roster Najee Harris in dynasty I am trying to acquire Warren for insurance.
Tyler Allgeier, RB Atlanta Falcons
6/25/0 ru / 1/1/5/0 rec; 21 (37% )
Allgeier held his own backing up Corderrelle Patterson in Week 3. The snap split is 60/40 between the two, but Patterson is getting a 3/1 touch advantage over Allgeier. Allgeier is a hold in dynasty.
Ken Walker, RB Seattle Seahawks
3/19/0 ru / 3/3/14/0 rec; 9 (13%)
The takeaway here is that when Walker is on the field, he is involved. He touched the ball on 6/9 snaps. That’s not the snap volume you want from your running back, but you got to love the participation rate.
Dameon Pierce, RB Houston Texans
20/80/1 ru / 2/2/21/0 rec; 35 (59%)
This is the time! Pierce looks to be establishing himself at the lead back in Houston. Week 3 was a workman like game. If he can grab a little more of the passing down work he should be able to maintain a low-end RB2 status.
Garrett Wilson, WR New York Jets
10/6/60/0 rec; 43 (61%)
Through three games Wilson is leading the Jets in targets. With the MNF game still to play, Wilson is WR15 on the year. Zach Wilson is supposed to return in Week 4. I think it is a reasonable approach to treat Garrett Wilson as more of a flex play until we see what the Jets offense looks like with the young gunslinger.
Drake London, WR Atlanta Falcons
6/3/54/1; 48 (84%)
London has grabbed the WR1 mantle in this rookie class and isn’t letting go. With the MNF still to go, London sits at the WR14 on the season. He is establishing himself as a top 20 or even a top 15 dynasty asset.
Jahan Dotson, WR Washington Commanders
8/2/10/0 rec; 67 (87%)
The fantasy production wasn’t there in Week 3, but the opportunity was there with a season high 8 targets. I am going to slot Dotson in as a weekly flex play. He showed through two weeks that he has a nose for the endzone and earned eight targets in Week 3. The Commanders are throwing the ball on 60% of their plays so there will opportunity moving forward.
Chris Olave, WR New Orleans Saints
13/9/147/0; 53 (77%)
Olave has 26 targets in the last two weeks. With Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry coming out of Week 2 with injuries, Olave looks like he is on the rise. In Week 2 Olave wasn’t efficient bringing in just 5/13 targets. He was much better in Week 3 at 9/13.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts
5/3/61/0; 32 (45%)
In two games Pierce has played 51% and 45 %. He got on the stat sheet in this week with three catches, including one for 30 yards. Pierce is running as the Colts WR3 through three games this season.
Treylon Burks, WR Tennessee Titans
1/8/0 ru / 2/1/13/0 rec; 40 (69%)
Burks has flashed a couple of times this season, but he is not consistently earning target. On the positive side his snap counts have increased every week and he led the Titans in routes run in Week 3. That bodes well for Burks. Week 3 was a Robert Woods/Derrick Henry passing game week as they received 15 of Tannehill’s 27 targets. Yes, that Derrick Henry. Patience is going to be the play with Burks. The real challenge will is that he has a fast-fading Tannehill of an extremely raw Malik Willis as his quarterback options.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens
2/1/8/0; 20 (33%)
Likely came back to earth after last weeks four catch performance. Through three weeks Likely is splitting time with veteran Josh Oliver as the TE2 in Baltimore. He is still just a bench player.
Jelani Woods, TE, Indianapolis Colts
3/2/13/2; 16 (23%)
Woods ran as the TE3 for the Colts in Week 3. He will likely stay in the role for the rest of the season barring injury to Alie-Cox or Granson. Woods is a great athlete and if he continues to develop, a player you should keep stashed on your taxi squad for 2022. I would not look to activate him off my taxi squad until he is consistently getting over 50% of the snaps.
