New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson signed a four-year extension worth up to $36 million. In part of that deal, he will get $17 million guaranteed. Stevenson is now the sixth highest-paid running back in football. What does this mean for Stevenson’s dynasty value? How much will it affect this backfield with the Patriots spending significant money on two running backs in their backfield?
Fantasy Career
| Year | Age | Tm | G | GS | Att | Yds | TD | Y/A | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | FF |
| 2021 | 23 | NWE | 12 | 2 | 133 | 606 | 5 | 4.6 | 18 | 14 | 123 | 8.8 | 0 | RB 40 |
| 2022 | 24 | NWE | 17 | 7 | 210 | 1040 | 5 | 5 | 88 | 69 | 421 | 6.1 | 1 | RB 11 |
| 2023 | 25 | NWE | 12 | 12 | 156 | 619 | 4 | 4 | 51 | 38 | 238 | 6.3 | 0 | RB 36 |
Stevenson has been in the league for three years and was a top-24 running back just once. That was during the 2022 season. He would benefit from a Damien Harris injury that had him in and out of the lineup from week six forward. In the first five weeks, Stevenson would split roles with Harris and manage to average 74 rushing yards per game. Once Harris got injured, Stevenson’s rush efficiency would drop to 55 rushing yards per game. His YPC would drop by a whole yard per game. Stevenson would become more of a passing threat in the Patriots offense as his targets per game would jump from three to six.
Stevenson would finish 13th in rushing yards among all running backs. He would be sixth in receiving yards among fantasy running backs. He managed to be RB11 despite a vanilla Patriots offense. He was 15th in red zone touches and 17th in yards per touch. He would show off with 113 evaded tackles and have 15 runs of 20-plus yards. Stevenson would finish with 279 total touches, with Harris seeing 100 carries that season.
The 2023 Season
Last season, Stevenson didn’t feel like a great starting option if you look at his total stats. He was solid for fantasy on a per-game basis. He would finish with ten-plus fantasy points in seven of the twelve games he played. Unfortunately, his other games were very poor, as he would finish the other five games with six or fewer fantasy points. He would get off to a poor start with a 3.7 YPC but had 29 receptions in those nine games. These final three games after week ten would be at 4.5 yards per carry and would have two games over 85 rushing yards.
Again, Stevenson would have to split time with aging veteran Zeke Elliott. Elliott had 100 carries by the time Stevenson had gone down with an injury in week 13. Stevenson would be a borderline RB24 through Week 13 but suffered a high ankle sprain that would knock him out of the season. Compared to last year, Stevenson would lose his goal-line role with 22 red zone touches, which ranked 40th in the league. His yards per touch was 4.4, and he also ranked 40th among running backs. He wasn’t the same runner with 35 evaded tackles and only three runs of 20-plus yards.
2024 & Beyond
Outside of the Patriots re-signing Stevenson to the sixth-highest contract among running backs, they also signed Antonio Gibson to a three-year, $11 million contract. Gibson used to be an up-and-coming running back in fantasy, but the last two years have not been great for him. Gibson started as a lead running back for the Commanders but eventually became a change-of-pace back with receiving ability. He would have 1500 all-purpose yards in his last two seasons and eight total touchdowns.
That is what will be the issue for Stevenson in 2024 and beyond. Gibson is an outstanding receiving back, with over 55 targets in back-to-back seasons. It seems like the Patriots are doing more of the opposite of when they brought Zeke Elliott, who was more of a bruiser back. The Patriot’s offense is getting better, especially at the receiver position, so having to use two backs in the passing game could be an issue. Elliott had 65 targets, and Stevenson had 55 targets. It is possible that they both could at least be over 40 targets on the season.
Stevenson, in 2023, looked on pace for another 80-target season. We need to look more realistic that he would be a 45 to 60 target player for fantasy. That could limit his upside in being an RB1 in fantasy. It could depend on the quarterback situation, as Jacoby Brissett didn’t heavily target his running backs in fantasy. In 2022, Nick Chubb had 37 targets with the Browns, and Kareem Hunt had 44 targets. If rookie Drake Maye gets extended time as the starter, we could see the rookie dump the ball off more, but he can run the ball himself.
Where Stevenson’s value may return is in the red zone and goal-line work. In 2023, Gibson had 13 red zone touches playing behind Brian Robinson Jr. Stevenson dominated in red zone touches in 2022 and would have an opportunity to be a seven to ten touchdown player for fantasy. Stevenson is a slightly bigger back in terms of weight, so he should see more of that opportunity. You don’t pay a running back and do not use him as much as possible.
Dynasty Value
In some recent trades for Stevenson, they are very interesting.
- (3) 2nd round picks for Stevenson
- 2025 1st round pick for Stevenson
- 2024 1st & Kenny Pickett for Stevenson
- Christian Kirk for Stevenson
Stevenson was already being valued high in fantasy football. If you were looking to sell him off, this would be the perfect time to get great value for Stevenson. He isn’t set to be a free agent, which dynasty owners like to have in a player. In all those trades below, I want the other side of Stevenson. I’m shocked that he was able to get the contract that he did after only one season of great production for the Patriots. I think the Patriots have money with a quarterback on a rookie contract and young receivers not being paid. They paid for a weapon they believe is in the offense.
I’d look to sell. I don’t want to rely on Stevenson to get a high touchdown number, even if he is set up for it. We still don’t know if this Patriots offense will be set up to be very good with a rookie quarterback leading the way with young, inexperienced talent around him. I think Stevenson has decent RB2 numbers for 2024, but he is an older player going into his fourth season. He’ll be 27 at the start of the 2025 season, the beginning of the downfall for running backs. Stevenson has already been a player who has dealt with injuries throughout his NFL career and in college.
Stevenson’s new OC, Alex Van Pelt, has a good history with his backfields. Four of his five seasons as OC produced top-10 rushing units. Don’t let that fool you, as he had one of the best pure running backs in football, Nick Chubb, in the last four seasons. There are questions on the offensive line that will need to be answered. I don’t think their unit will be fully healthy to start the season, with Cole Strange expected to miss some time.
It’s a better time to buy Antonio Gibson for a 2025 third-round pick. If Stevenson is injured, Gibson would likely get the bulk of the workload, similar to how Zeke Elliott was near the end of the 2023 season. It’s great to see Stevenson get paid, but it is likely an even better time to sell off the Patriots’ running back.
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