Welcome in Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds have helped you throughout the NFL offseason, preparing for the 2023 fantasy football season. Now that your teams are set, it is time to get to work and win some dynasty championships. Every week, our writers will help you with the tough decisions and give you insight that you can’t get anywhere else. I will share my quarterback start/sits every week to help you set your starting lineups.
Below is a list of all of our weekly positional articles. Please follow us, tweet us, and DM us. We can’t wait to talk football with all of you Nerds!
- Changing the Call (QB): Mike Hicks
- The Cutback (RB): Jake Oliver
- Slant Pattern (WR): Tristan Cook
- 12 Formation (TE): Steven Pintado
- Flex on ‘Em (FLEX): Evan Brown
- IDP Start/Sit (IDP): Jon Glosser
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings
LAST WEEK
Again, I went 1-1 in my start predictions for Week 6. So far in 2023, my Dak Prescott prediction might just be my most significant of the year. Dak Prescott outperformed his ECR of QB12 and my top 10 quarterback prediction and finished the week as the overall QB1. Prescott passed for a season-high 272 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. He also rushed for 40 yards and had a touchdown on the ground. On the other hand, I was wrong about Matthew Stafford being a top-12 quarterback. Stafford ended QB15 with 13.2 fantasy points, throwing for 226 yards and 1 touchdown.
Like my starts of the week, my sits of the week went 1-1 in Week 6. Sam Howell outperformed my and almost everyone’s expectations, finishing as QB7 with 18.3 fantasy points. He only had 151 passing yards but made up for it by throwing 3 touchdowns. Geno Smith underperformed his weekly ECR of QB13. The Seahawks struggled against the Bengals, and Smith did as well. Yes, he threw for 326 yards but had 0 touchdowns on the day, which had him as QB16.
WEEK 7 STARTS
Jordan Love, Packers, QB9
In five games thus far in 2023, Jordan Love has been a mixed bag. Love has three top-12 performances so far. His other two weeks were QB16 and QB24, respectively. His last game was by far the worst of the season, scoring only 8 fantasy points against the Las Vegas Raiders. Recency bias and Love coming off his bye week is one reason many people could be sleeping on him this week.
In Week 7, the Green Bay Packers play on the road against the struggling Denver Broncos. The Broncos so far have a point differential of -71. They have started the season on a bad note defensively, but unfortunately, they haven’t been able to turn it around. The Broncos are 31st in the NFL, giving up 21.5 FPPG to QBs.One of the issues for the Broncos is the lack of pressure they get on the QB. They are 31st in the NFL with a QB pressure percentage of 16.7%. The Broncos have already given up 14 passing touchdowns this season. The Broncos are also last in points allowed per game to the tight end and running back positions.
Jordan Love likes to throw the ball to the intermediate and deep routes, along with an ADOT of 9.8 yards. He has Christian Watson back healthy and tight end Luke Musgrave, who returned in Week 5. If Love is to have a bounceback game in Week 7, look for Musgrave to be a big part of this offense. The Packers also hope to get Aaron Jones back in Week 7. With six teams on bye, it makes this call even more interesting. Love is a must-start in all formats and could finish as a top 8 QB this week against the Broncos.
Desmond Ridder, Falcons, QB20
The Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder has had two consecutive top-10 performances in his last two games. Not everything has been perfect. Last week, he was QB5, even though he threw three interceptions. Ridder has had 4 of his 6 passing touchdowns in the last three games. He will need to bank on the progress he has made if he wants to have a good performance in Week 7.
A divisional matchup awaits the Falcons when they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers defense has had its ups and downs in 2023 and is looking to get back on track after losing in Week 6. They are 17th in points allowed to QBs with 16.1 FPPG. In their first five games, the Buccaneers defense has given up three top fantasy performances to quarterbacks. If the Buccaneers want to win in Week 7, they must put pressure on Desmond Ridder. The Buccaneers are third in blitz rate and will look to continue that in Week 7. Will the defense be able to do enough against Ridder and the Falcons?
Ridder on the road against a division opponent is a scary proposition to consider starting in Week 7. If Ridder can build on the momentum of his last two starts, he can and will outperform his current ECR. The Falcons passing game is starting to click and should continue in Week 7. I expect the game against the Buccaneers to be a close and competitive battle. Because of that, I expect the Falcons to not go away from the passing game and Ridder to have a chance to be a backend QB1.
WEEK 7 SITS
Kirk Cousins, Vikings, QB15
Through the first six games of the season, Kirk Cousins is QB8 and has had 4 top-10 performances. Unfortunately, his worst performance of the season was in Week 6 against the Chicago Bears with only 8.7 points. To be a strong offense, the Vikings must be efficient, and Cousins has done his part so far. He is fifth in the NFL with a TD rate of 6%.
In Week 7, the Vikings play on Monday Night Football against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers suffered their first loss of the season against the Cleveland Browns. Even in the loss, the 49ers defense only gave up 5.8 points to the Browns quarterback. The 49ers have given up an average of 15.4 FPPG to the QB position. The 49ers are a top-10 defense in both hurry and pressure percentage, even though they are 28th in the NFL in blitz rate. That proves the 49ers can get to the QB without extra pressure, and this is not a good sign for Cousins and the Vikings offense.
Cousins has had a bad reputation for performing in prime-time games. Without Justin Jefferson in the lineup, it will take a good performance against a great defense for him to have a good fantasy performance. With an over/under of 44, the 49ers will look to get ahead early and, run the ball in the second half and take the ball out of the Vikings possession. Cousins will struggle and finish in between QB18 and QB20 in Week 7.
Justin Herbert, Chargers, QB6
Justin Herbert has had a hot start to the 2023 season and is currently QB6, even with the Chargers already having their bye week. He has finished as a QB1 every week he has played, and in Week 4, he was the overall QB1. Herbert is seventh in the league with a 68.7% completion percentage and has only thrown 2 interceptions this season. Even with his success, the Chargers as a team are 3-2 and look to come out strong in Week 7.
In Week 7, the Chargers face a division opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs defense is usually not known as a strength of the team, but this year is different. The Chiefs are a surprising sixth in the NFL with an average of 13.8 FPPG. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has always liked to pressure the quarterback, and 2023 is no different. The Chiefs are second in the NFL with a pressure percentage of 29.7%. Their defense is also one of the top blitzing teams at 36.4%, which is second in the NFL. With a renewed pass rush and a secondary that has only given up 1,1103 passing yards through six games, the Chiefs will look to slow down Justin Herbert.
Herbert will look to keep up his hot start to the season against the Chiefs. However, his defense could end up being an issue. The Chargers defense is last in the NFL in points allowed to QBs. If the Chiefs can score early, it could turn into a game with limited possessions for the Chargers in the second half. One of the strengths of the Chargers offense is big plays. The Chiefs have only given up 14 plays of more than 20 yards. Herbert will still be a “start” in week 6. However, Herbert will finish closer to a fringe top-12 QB in Week 7 than his ECR of QB6.
