- Positional Matchups | Week 16 CheatChart | Find the Best Fantasy Performers
Welcome to the Week 16 CheatChart. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional matchups table and highlight potentially exploitable matchups. If you’re curious about the process you can find a full introduction HERE where I lay out the methodology.
How to Use the Week 16 CheatChart
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to THEIR POSITION’S column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they typically score.
Win Your Week 16 | QB | RB | WR | TE | IDP | CheatChart | Full Slate
Example: Let’s say you’re deciding between Rachaad White (RB-TB) and Malik Nabers (WR-NYG). For White, find TB in the first column. Follow that row over to the RB column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is -14%. That’s a moderately negative matchup. Next, for Nabers, find NYG in the first column. Follow that row over to the WR column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is 23%, which is a very positive matchup. Given both players are averaging about 15.5 points per game, I’d lean Nabers.
Offensive Players to Target | Week 16 CheatChart
Down But Not Out
Right now, there is a lot of negative attention on Caleb Williams. If you decided to skip the Monday Night Game, you missed a pretty dismal performance. That said, his positional matchup against the Vikings was tough, and Minnesota’s defensive coordinator excels at breaking down young quarterbacks. This week, he gets the Lions, who he recently put up 26 points against in Week 13. With all the negative attention, it’s worth inquiring about him in leagues without a trade deadline. He could be acquired for less than his original draft capital if his current manager hasn’t kept tabs on him closely this season.
Denver’s Target Hog
Courtland Sutton has been a volume hog in 2024, making him largely matchup-proof. However, this week his outlook is a mixed bag. He has a good positional matchup at +15%, and while the over/under on the game is fairly low, he’s still likely to see 8-11 targets, giving him a double-digit floor in PPR leagues.
Free Pickup Foreman
With Nick Chubb now on IR, the Browns will likely look to Jerome Ford to carry the bulk of the carries. It’s worth noting that when given the same opportunity last year, he did well enough, but was hardly a league winner. There’s a deeper play to be had here and it’s D’Onta Foreman. While Pierre Strong is currently the RB2 on the depth chart, he profiles more as a change of pace back and rarely saw more than a few carries. Foreman is likely on waivers and the chance of him being fantasy relevant is more than zero.
A Titanic Tight End Opportunity
Mason Rudolph took over as the starting quarterback during Week 15 and Chig Okonkwo immediately saw a season-high 10 targets. This week, he has an even better positional matchup. Right now, he’s at the top of the list for tight ends streaming options.
Offensive Players to Avoid | Week 16 CheatChart
Pump the Brakes with the Browns
Dorian Thompson-Robinson might look appealing on paper, but don’t expect much from the Browns’ QB3. He has just two full games under his belt. In those two games, he scored a combined 8 points. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he hasn’t been productive with those carries. Yes, the positional matchup is good but getting an extra 30% on top of 4 points won’t get you to the finals.
Tennessee Target Losses
On the other side of the Tennessee passing game are the wide receivers. They’ve been underwhelming to date and now get a tough positional matchup with a QB who seemingly prefers throwing to the tight end. Calvin Ridley has disappointed in the last stretch of games. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine looked promising but has fallen from fantasy relevance entirely over the last two weeks. It’s best to leave both on your bench in Week 16.
Beware the Cowboys Backfield
Rico Dowdle is coming off three strong games where he had good positional matchups and finished top-18 at the position each week. However, Week 16 is a different story. He faces Tampa Bay, who has been tough on running backs, and the Cowboys are expected to trail. The volume gives him a decent floor, but if you’re this deep into the playoffs, chances are you have better options on your bench.
Down In the Pitts
Kirk Cousins has also been benched, which could provide an opportunity for improvement for Kyle Pitts, but it’s unlikely to happen this week. The Falcons get the Giants, who have been an awful matchup for tight ends. On top of that, the Falcons are expected to lead heavily in a low-scoring game, so there is a good chance that Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are used to run the clock for much of the game.
IDP | Week 16 CheatChart
IDP Targets | Week 16 CheatChart
Detroit’s Defensive Line
The Bears have given up 4.1 sacks per game to opposing defenses, and when they last played the Lions, gave up five sacks. Za’Darius Smith and D.J. Reeder are likely the biggest beneficiaries, though Reeder has been dealing with a shoulder injury and is coming off of a zero-point game, so it’s hard to trust him. The sneakier pickup is Josh Paschal. He missed most of the previous matchup, but is seemingly back to a full workload. He’s a riskier play than the first two, but is still a flex-worthy option.
Ravens Linebackers Fly
Roquan Smith is an obvious every-week starter, but if you need linebacker depth check on Malik Harrison’s availability. He’s coming off a season-high 79% snap share and has a good positional matchup. You could also look to Trenton Simpson, though his floor isn’t as high as Harrison’s.
Giant Upside
Giants defensive backs Tyler Nubin and Tre Hawkins are both on IR. Last week, Dane Belton stepped up big time, playing 100% of the defensive snaps and scoring 30 points. This week he has a plus matchup. Jason Pinnock is another option, he’s been playing close to 100% of snaps throughout season, and while he hasn’t performed that well for IDP since Week 3, he could be used as a deeper flex option.
Team Trends | Week 16 CheatChart
Notable Rush Funnel Teams: The Colts, Giants, and Titans are presently the biggest rush funnels.
Pass Funnel Teams: The Cowboys, Vikings, Jets, and Buccaneers are the top pass funnels in the league.
IDP Targets: The Bears, Vikings, and Commanders are all excellent targets for defensive linemen. The Vikings are also a top target for opposition linebackers. The Browns are the top target for defensive backs. But, with the change at QB, look to the Patriots, Bengals, and Buccaneers for good matchups.
Final Word | Week 16 CheatChart
We’re almost there, championship week is so close you can practically touch it. Even if you’re out of the playoffs this is prime trade target time if you league doesn’t have a trade deadline. Watch for injuries and selling opportunities for teams in the playoffs. If you’re out and you have Jerome Ford, you should be making offers to every team in competition right now.
