Welcome to the Positional Matchups Report, aka POSAFPA. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional matchups table and highlight potentially exploitable matchups. If you’re curious about the process you can find a full introduction HERE where I lay out the methodology.
How to Use the Positional Matchups Table
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to THEIR POSITION’S column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they typically score.
Example: Let’s say you’re deciding between Christian Kirk (WR-JAX) and Najee Harris (RB-PIT). For Kirk, find JAX in the first column. Follow that row over to the WR column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is -26%. That’s a very negative matchup. Next, for Harris, find PIT in the first column. Follow that row over to the RB column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is 22%, which is a very positive matchup. Given both players are averaging around 10-11 points per game, I’d lean Harris.
Offensive Positional Matchups to Target
Daniel Jones is coming off a season-high 22.1-point game in a plus matchup. He gets another plus positional matchup this week against the Bengals who have been weak against the pass. Jones’ rushing upside was on full display last week as he ran 11 times for 38 yards. You can bank on that rushing for a middling-to-good outlook in Week 6.
The Bears passing game finally came together in Week 5, where D.J. Moore caught 5 of 8 targets for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen both managed to secure 6 targets each. Now they face the Jaguars who are the best matchup for wide receivers in the league. D.J. Moore is a weekly must-start, but Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen can be considered flex starts.
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are fully rested after a bye week and are set to take full advantage of their matchup. The Colts run defense has allowed nearly a third more points to opposing running backs. Recently, the Titans have been run-heavy, so consider Tony Pollard a solid starter and Tyjae Spears an upside flex with an okay floor.
Zach Ertz has been averaging just 7 PPG so far this season, but his peripherals have been better than expected. Last week, he had 8 targets in a very negative matchup, and on the season, he’s seen 18% of Washington’s passes. This week he goes against the Ravens who have been weak against TE. What’s even more enticing is the expected game script. It’s a mouth-watering 51-point over/under, and Washington is expected to be playing from behind. That gives Ertz a volume floor plus touchdown upside.
Offensive Positional Matchups to Avoid
It feels like cheating to include any part of the Chargers passing game in the positional matchups to “avoid” section of this article given the team has a total of 93 pass attempts on the year. That said, Justin Herbert should be especially avoided this week. Herbert has only been averaging 10.4 points per game, and could easily get even fewer. While he’s coming off a bye, he’ll face a tough Broncos defense, so consider him a low-end QB2.
Despite being named the starter in Week 5, Antonio Gibson only had half the carries as Rhamondre Stevenson and only a single target to Stevenson’s 4. The over/under is only 38 points, so don’t be surprised if both end up with single-digit results. Stevenson is clearly a better starter but his ball security issues could lead to him being benched, making him a risky play in what is already a low-upside game.
Courtland Sutton has been getting a respectable 26% target share, but has caught only 17 of 41 targets on the season. That’s translated to just 9.1 PPR PPG, making him WR60. This week, he gets the Chargers in a game with an abysmal 36-point over/under, so leave him on your bench.
Dalton Kincaid has had one of the toughest stretches to start the year and it will continue in Week 6. He gets the Jets who could face some turmoil after a coaching change, but who have locked down opposing tight ends regularly. It’s a rough year for tight ends in general though, so if you can’t pivot, at least limit your expectations.
IDP Positional Matchups
IDP Positional Matchups to Target
Zach Baun is the projected LB1 this week, but don’t overlook teammate Nakobe Dean. Dean has played 97% of the linebacker snaps for Philly, so he’s been on the field—even if his production hasn’t been elite. Now he’s set up for success in Week 6, with one of the best linebacker positional matchups in the league coming off of a bye week. That makes him a must-start.
If you’re desperate for defensive linemen help, look to the Colts. Hampered by injuries, there are several players likely on waivers who could put up points in Week 6. In Week 5 Grover Stewart, Laiatu Latu, and Dayo Odeyingbo all played the majority of defensive snaps. Their fantasy production wasn’t great, but they were in a negative positional matchup. They get a positive positional matchup in Week 6, and while they might not win you the week, it’s unlikely they’ll sink you.
No defensive backs have upside like the Lions do. They face Dak Prescott at home, in what is expected to be a competitive, high-scoring game. With a high-passing volume and Cowboys wide receiver-depth woes, we could see multiple interceptions. Carlton Davis is expected to return. You can start Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, and Terrion Arnold with confidence. Even Amik Robertson is worth a flyer despite his snap counts likely dropping with Davis’ return.
IDP Positional Matchups to Avoid
Atlanta has several linebackers who have been providing flex-level results but you should avoid using them in Week 6. They face the Panthers who have an incredibly stout offensive line. Their positional matchup is -16%, which is tough but not horrible. However, that still includes several Bryce Young games. Since Andy Dalton has taken over, they’ve been exceptionally tough for opposing LB fantasy production.
The Jets’ defensive linemen have had a great start to the year, with one of the best stretches of positional matchups in the league. This week, that streak ends when they travel to Buffalo. The Bills are the toughest matchup in the league for defensive linemen. Add on that Jets defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has the additional responsibilities of being interim head coach, and you have a recipe for disaster.
While it’s difficult to leave guys like Patrick Surtain on your bench after a huge game, avoid Broncos’ defensive backs in Week 6. They go against the Chargers who are exceptionally run-heavy, and have a quarterback who isn’t prone to turnovers. That means high-floor, low-ceiling outcomes are likely.
For additional IDP waiver adds I’d highly recommend checking out Jon Glosser’s IDP Fantasy Waiver Wire. He’s been on fire this season and he has a great list for Week 6:
Positional Matchup Team Trends
Notable Rush Funnel Teams: Buffalo, Chicago, Miami, and Cleveland are the top clearcut rush funnels currently.
Pass Funnel Teams: Baltimore, Detroit, and Tampa Bay are the top three pass funnels.
IDP Targets: Cleveland continue to be the best DL/LB target while Seattle is the best matchup for opposing defensive backs.
Final Word
As bye weeks begin to hit in full force, keep in mind the need to look to the future. Take a look into the next few weeks and see if there is any week where you’re running especially thin at a position. You can use the “Opponents” column to figure out which bye-week filler matchups to target, and get a leg up on your league mates.
For a change of pace this week, check out our Nerds’ First Round Rookie dynasty mock draft for the 2025 NFL Draft class—complete with 30 second videos on each prospect:
