Welcome to the Positional Matchups Report, aka POSAFPA. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional matchups table and highlight potentially exploitable matchups. If you’re curious about the process, you can find a full introduction HERE where I lay out the methodology.
Early Season Preface on Positional Matchups
Entering Week 4, we finally have enough data to start truly identifying trends. We’re still a little lighter than what is ideal, but between three weeks of in-season games and last year’s data, we have enough to start leaning into positional matchups.
How to Use the Positional Matchups Table
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to THEIR POSITION’S column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they typically score.
Example: Let’s say you’re deciding between George Pickens (WR-PIT) and Rachaad White (RB-TB). For Pickens, find PIT in the first column. Follow that row over to the WR column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is 21%. That’s a very positive matchup.
Next, for White, find TB in the first column. Follow that row over to the RB column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is -18%, which is a moderately negative matchup. Given both players are averaging about 9.5 points per game: I’d lean Pickens.
Offensive Positional Matchups to Target
In Week 3, we saw a lot of fantasy stud quarterbacks have down weeks. Based on the schedule, I’m expecting several of them to have bounce back performances in Week 4.
Kyler Murray may have had an up-and-down start to the year but should be considered an every-week starter. Week 4 looks great for him though, with a 48% positional matchup and a juicy 50.5-point over/under on the game. He faces Washington who has been hemorrhaging fantasy points to the passing game. Trevor Lawrence is also in a good spot this week. While he’s had a rough start to the year, he could be used in a pinch in 2-quarterback leagues.
While Carson Steele‘s fantasy output in Week 3 might have been a disappointment (unless you read Positional Matchups for Week 3), this week should be better. Kareem Hunt could be elevated but will likely be used in a limited role. Steele faces the Chargers, who have given up 17% more points than average to RBs. Given Steele’s volume in Week 3, that could mean very good things for Week 4.
By extension of Kyler Murray‘s expected success, Marvin Harrison Jr. could have a big week, but don’t overlook Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch as flex options.
As I’m sure you’ve heard, touchdown rates are below-average league wide. Tight end fantasy production relies on touchdowns more than any other position, so they are particularly hurting from this. Temper expectations, but Brock Wright is likely on waivers after he managed to capture a 23% target share last week. Sam Laporta is day-to-day with a lower ankle injury which opens up opportunities for Wright.
Offensive Positional Matchups to Avoid
Detroit is facing off against the Seahawks, whose defense has been on fire to start the year. Jared Goff has not been much of a fantasy asset this year, but I would avoid starting him this week if possible. The Seahawks give up 24% fewer points to opposing quarterbacks so far this year, and Goff’s average hasn’t been good to start with.
Chances are you can’t sit Garrett Wilson, but I would severely temper expectations for him this week. Aaron Rodgers been spreading the ball around, giving looks to his old favorite, Allen Lazard, and new receiver, Mike Williams, who looks to be resuming a full workload. Combine the low target volume with the Broncos secondary who have allowed 40% fewer points to opposing wide receivers, and it’s a grim outlook for Week 4.
Hunter Henry went from capturing half of the Patriots targets to putting up a measly 1.8 points last week. He faces an even tougher matchup against the 49ers in Week 4 in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair. Avoid him if possible.
IDP Positional Matchups to Target
The Raiders’ Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins are both coming off tepid games in what was a tough matchup against an Andy Dalton led Panthers. This week they get a much more appealing matchup against the Browns and should be started in just about every format.
Dolphins linebacker David Long suffered a hamstring injury in the 4th quarter of Sunday’s game. He has a very nice positional matchup this week, but you’ll need to keep track of his practices if you’re planning to start him. Jordyn Brooks and Jaelan Phillips are both solid IDP flex options regardless of Long’s participation. The expectedly low-scoring game against Will Levis should be advantageous.
While the Bears offense had a glimmer of hope in the late 4th quarter of Week 3, you can’t expect a turnaround from such a small sample. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and company have been a nice matchup for opposing defensive backs. That means Quentin Lake and Kamren Curl are both strong starts this week.
IDP Positional Matchups to Avoid
The Bengals non-studs. As mentioned previously, Andy Dalton has replaced Bryce Young and the contrast is frankly, quite astonishing. The offense looked better in every aspect and that means they are no longer someone to target on a weekly basis. You’ll still start your Logan Wilson‘s of the world, but when it comes to finding deeper IDP values on a week-to-week basis, you shouldn’t rely on Carolina any longer.
For additional IDP waiver adds I’d recommend checking out Jon Glosser’s IDP Fantasy Players You Need to Add for Week 4.
Positional Matchup Team Trends
Notable Rush Funnel Teams: The Bears, Broncos, Dolphins, and Bills have all been solid matchups for running backs while limiting fantasy production through the air.
Pass Funnel Teams: The Chiefs, Falcons, Lions, and Ravens have all been giving up points through the air.
IDP Targets: The Browns have been a good matchup for opposing linemen and linebackers and unless they take drastic measures; that’s unlikely to change. Chicago has been a solid matchup for IDP players in general, and Seattle has been good for both opposing defensive linemen and defensive backs.
Final Word
With Week 3 being full of weird upsets, we also had a fair amount of unusual fantasy production. That said, positional matchups held up well—especially for being so early in the year. Now is the time we start seeing rookie wide receivers break out, so keep an eye for matchups where they could have a blow-up game.
If you enjoyed the Positional Matchups and need some names that might be available for trade, I encourage you to read the Fantasy Stock Up/Down After Week 3 by fellow Nerd Mychal Warno.
