Welcome to the Positional Matchups Report, aka POSAFPA. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional matchups table and highlight potentially exploitable matchups. If you’re curious about the process you can find a full introduction HERE where I lay out the methodology.
Early Season Preface on Positional Matchups
Please note that this early in the season we don’t have a ton of data to identify trends with. For the first handful of weeks I will utilize data from last season to supplement the information we have available. Every week into the season we will become more accurate. Until week 5 take some of outlier performances may skew stats slightly but I will do my best to highlight those situations.
How to Use the Positional Matchups Table
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to THEIR POSITION’S column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they typically score.
Example: Let’s say you’re deciding between David Montgomery (RB-DET) and Zay Flowers (WR-BAL). For Montgomery, find DET in the first column. Follow that row over to the RB column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is -13%. That’s a moderately negative matchup. Next, for Flowers, find BAL in the first column. Follow that row over to the WR column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is 12%, which is a moderately positive matchup. Given both players are averaging a little over 16.5 PPR points per game, I would lean Flowers.
Offensive Positional Matchups to Target
Derek Carr has a touchdown rate of nearly 13% right now, an insane number that is unlikely to stay that high throughout the year. That said, he’s playing hot and in a great matchup this week. If you lost Tua Tagovailoa, it would be worth getting a price check on Carr in dynasty as a cheap band-aid or picking him up off of waivers in redraft.
While Chris Olave didn’t kill your team last week, you’re still probably questioning whether he’s deserving of a lineup spot after two underwhelming weeks. What stings even more is when you look at Rashid Shaheed‘s numbers. Regardless, this should be a good week for both receivers as the Eagles have been one of the most advantageous matchups for wide receivers through the first two weeks. Start either with confidence.
While you might be a little disappointed that Derrick Henry isn’t getting his typical 30-touch workload we used to see in Tennessee, he’s still getting some decent fantasy production. After facing a tough matchup in Week 1 and a fair one in Week 2, he is in line for a very good matchup this week. I expect Henry will still see 20-25 touches, but he should be able to produce much more on them than he has so far this year. Justice Hill could be used in a pinch, but only as a desperation flex play.
Offensive Positional Matchups to Avoid
Trevor Lawrence has been feeding his receivers, but his own fantasy production has been just okay. This week he faces Buffalo who have been forcing teams to run the ball.
While Carson Steel was Week 3’s waiver wire top target his first matchup is less than ideal. He’ll be facing Atlanta who has been a tough matchup for running backs so far this year. Kareem Hunt has also rejoined the team, but he has been away from the team for years and will likely have a very small role to start. Steele could be used in a pinch given all the injuries sustained last week, but don’t expect a week-winning performance.
George Pickens had a respectable 7 targets in Week 2, up from just 4 in Week 1. This week he faces the Chargers who will be the toughest matchup thus far. Given the struggles of this offense, Pickens should at most be treated as a flex for teams struggling with injuries.
IDP Positional Matchups to Target
If you picked up Seahawks DBs ahead of time for the Carolina matchup, I have good news. You can hold them another week and play them against Miami. Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love, and Riq Woolen all have nice ceilings this week, especially with Skylar Thompson under center for the Dolphins.
Green Bay Linebackers Quay Walker and Rashan Gary have been a force to be reckoned with. Week 3’s outlook is similar, but there’s another player that needs mentioning. Check waivers for Isaiah McDuffie. He’s averaging over 90% of snaps so far this year, a massive improvement over his previous workloads. He’s had spiked weeks in the past, but he’s never been on the field this much. I’d recommend picking him up to stash at minimum in any IDP leagues he’s available in. This week could very well be the week he goes off and becomes a hot waiver commodity.
IDP Positional Matchups to Avoid
Arizona’s defensive backs have been producing quite a bit for fantasy but unfortunately, they’ve been spreading it around. On paper, they have a great matchup against Jared Goff and the Lions. Budda Baker is an every-week starter of course, but it’s a complete dice roll after him. Jalen Thompson, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Starling Thomas, Max Melton, and Kei’Trel Clark could all be in line for some work. The ceiling isn’t worth the risk unless you’re truly desperate.
Justin Madubuike has had a quiet start to the season, but now has his best matchup so far. The Cowboys’ offensive line had quite a bit of turnover in the offseason, and it’s apparent that they are still adjusting to the changes.
Chicago’s defense has been looking strong so far this year. TJ Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds, and Jack Sanborn are all coming off of big fantasy weeks, but don’t expect the same outcome for Week 3. The Colts have been a very tough matchup for linebackers, offering up nearly a third-fewer points than average.
On the flip side of that game, DeForest Buckner is dealing with an injury and is unlikely to play this week. Kwity Paye would be the next most appealing fantasy option, however, his snaps decreased in Week 2. I’d expect the Colts to use a rotation of Bryan Taven and Adebawore Adetomiwa in place of Buckner, though neither will likely offer up much fantasy value.
For additional IDP waiver adds I’d recommend checking out Jon Glosser’s IDP Fantasy PLAYERS YOU NEED to Add for Week 3.
Positional Matchup Team Trends
Notable Rush Funnel Teams: The Titans and Dolphins are top of the league when it comes to funneling fantasy points through the run game. The Bills are similar, but have been a positive matchup for tight ends.
Pass Funnel Teams: San Francisco has been a great team for opposing passers and receivers. Despite two top receivers now being injured, I would expect them to keep up in high scoring games.
IDP Targets: Detroit has so far been a great matchup for opposing DB’s, as have the Eagles and Dolphins. The Bears, Titans, and Rams have all been advantageous matchups for LBs, and that’s likely to continue especially for the Rams as they’re forced to lean further into the run game due to injuries.
Final Word
It’s great to be back in the swing of things-earlier than ever. Again, I encourage you to use this with a grain of salt for a few weeks. Until then, put a little more weight on expected game totals and implied game scripts.
After such an injury-laden Week 2, make sure to check out Doc Mitchell’s Injury News below for keen insight into what to expect heading into Week 3 and keep an eye out for Johnny B. Goode’s Injury Update on Sunday mornings before kickoff.
