NFL Combine Numbers | Finding the Metrics for Fantasy Success

The NFL Combine starts this weekend in Indianapolis. NFL prospects will be tested and measured. Numbers can sometimes tell the story for these NFL prospects, so their draft stock will go up and down between now and the NFL Draft. The question remains: which NFL Combine numbers matter?

In this article, we are going to look at the NFL Combine numbers and whether or not they have an impact on fantasy football. We will break down each position based on the players who participated in the NFL Combine over the past decade. We will learn which—if any—testings can be translated to NFL success.

Note: This will only be on players who contributed to the NFL Combine numbers, so players like Jaylen Waddle and Joe Mixon—who were not there—weren’t considered.

NFL Combine Numbers Needed By Position

Tight End

Broad Jump | Top Testing Metric

When looking at the NFL Combine results over the last 10 years for tight ends, the broad jump seems to stand out when comparing them to being a TE1 in fantasy. The broad jump measures the athlete’s explosive lower body power—or their ability to generate quickness and push their body forward. Some tight ends that fit this category: George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, and David Njoku.

• There have been 22 tight ends who attended the NFL combine and had a TE1 finish between 2015 and 2024.
• Of those 22 players, 13 finished with an above-average broad jump score (more than 10 feet).
• This means there is a 60% chance that a TE1 in fantasy has finished with a 10-foot score or better in the broad jump.
• In the last 10 NFL Combines, 54 tight end prospects were above the baseline score of 10 feet in the broad jump.
• Of those 54 TEs, 18 finished either as a TE1 or a TE2 in fantasy for at least 1 season of their career.

You should avoid tight ends that finish with a score under 115 with the broad jump.

• There have been 45 tight ends who scored 115 or shorter in the last 10 years.
• Only 3 of those tight ends delivered a TE2 or better finish at least once in their career.

The biggest name that defied the odds was Mark Andrews, who performed poorly overall at the NFL Combine but has given us TE1 seasons. As we know, many players go to the Combine but don’t partake in the testing, and there is some information there as well.

• Twelve tight ends did not partake but were drafted in the top 3 rounds of the NFL draft. Seven of those 12 players performed as a TE2 or better in at least one season.

40-Yard Dash | Need to Be Quick, Better to Be Fast

• Tight End prospects who run a 4.81-second or slower 40-yard dash have never had a TE1 season.
• There have been 12 TEs to run a 4.55-second or faster 40-yard dash, and 8 have finished as a TE2 or better.

3-Cone Drill | Keep It Under 7

• If a tight end finishes with a 7-second time or faster, there is a 38% chance that the prospect will have a TE1 or TE2 season in fantasy.

Shuttle Test | Don’t Miss the Cut

• No tight end has posted a 4.42-second or slower time in the shuttle test and produced as a TE1 in fantasy.

Wide Receiver

Shuttle Test | Top Testing Metric

When looking at the wide receivers who have produced a WR2 finish or better in the last 10 years, the one test that stands out is the shuttle. This test indicates the prospects’ high agility, speed, and cardio fitness levels. These are all essential traits since receivers need to perform similarly to these tests when on the field.

• There have been 32 receivers who have finished as a WR1 in fantasy.
• Of those 32 players, 13 had a shuttle time of 4.17-seconds or better.
• That’s a 40% outcome—if a receiver finished as a WR1, they likely had a great shuttle time.

If we look at the shuttle NFL Combine numbers as a whole, there have been 93 prospects who have finished with a 4.19-second or better time. The 4.19-second benchmark is a good standard of testing in this category.

While not every receiver can finish as a WR2 or better, some receivers have flashed for portions of their career.

• Some examples include: Demarcus Robinson, Calvin Austin, and Isaiah McKenzie.

There are still some second-year players who could eventually reach WR2 or better production.

• These would include: Rome Odunze, Ricky Pearsall, and Jalen McMillan.

40-Yard Dash | Don’t Chase the Outliers

• For the 40 times, look to avoid receivers that finish with 4.6 seconds or worse, as there have only been 4 receivers to finish as a WR2 or better out of 84 prospects.
• There have been 61 receivers to finish with a 4.4-second 40-yard dash or faster, and only 13 of those WRs have finished as a WR2 or better.

Broad Jump | Great Is Not Good

• There have been 29 receivers to record a broad jump of 133 or better, and only one has given us excellent fantasy production. (D.K. Metcalf)

Vertical Jump | Don’t Bother

• The Vertical Jump doesn’t offer consistent insight for receivers and NFL production.

3-Cone Drill | Keep It Low

• There have been 80 prospects to finish in 7.10 seconds or slower in the 3-cone, and only 1 has given us WR2 or better numbers.
  • D.K. Metcalf (potentially Khalil Shakir one day)

Non-Compete Prospects | Mixed Results

• There have been 11 receivers who did not provide NFL Combine numbers and were drafted in the first 2 rounds of the NFL Draft. Five of them were able to finish with WR2 or better numbers.

Running Back

Broad Jump | Top Testing Metric

This is the section you want to read, given the incredible hype the 2025 running back class is getting. There have been 34 running backs who have finished as an RB1 and attended the NFL Combine (in the past 10 years). The testing that stands out the most with these prospects is the broad jump. There is a high rate that an RB1 in fantasy would also have a good score in the broad jump.

• There were 26 of 34 prospects who scored 115 or more in the broad jump to have an RB1 season.
• There hasn’t been a single running back who finished a broad jump with under 115 and still managed to be elite for fantasy football.

A good broad jump doesn’t automatically mean RB1.

• There have been 212 prospects to get a 115 score or better, but only 45 running backs reached RB2 or better finishes.

40-Yard Dash | Top Testing Metric

Speed is another measurement that correlates with fantasy production.

• Of those 34 RB1 seasons, 15 prospects ran a 4.5-second 40-yard dash or better.
• There have been 26 running backs who have finished with a 4.68 or worse 40 time, and none were able to finish as an RB2 or better.
• On the flip side, there have been 21 running backs who have finished with a 4.4 or better 40 time, and 9 gave us an RB2 or better season.

Speed Score | Top Testing Metric

The Speed Score is another way to look at speed as it takes the prospect’s weight into consideration.

• 32 of the 34 RB1-season performers had a speed score of 112 or better.
• The only two that didn’t were Josh Jacobs (he didn’t run) and Kyren Williams—who scored poorly.

Vertical Jump | No Need to Worry

• The vertical jump doesn’t offer much for RBs, as the NFL Combine numbers are scattered throughout fantasy producers.

3-Cone Drill | Take It or Leave It

• The 3-cone hasn’t offered us much insight for running backs, either. Of the 40 prospects who have finished in under 7 seconds, only 6 have finished with an RB2 or better season.

Shuttle | Don’t Get Left Behind

• There have been 71 running backs to test in the shuttle drill who finished with a time of 4.31 seconds or slower, and only 5 of those running backs produced an RB2 or better season.

Non-Compete Prospects | Test If You Can

• 36 running backs who have an RB2 or better season did not test in the 3-cone and shuttle
• There have been 45 running backs who went to the Combine but did not run the 40-yard dash, and only 2 have finished as an RB2 or better.

Quarterback

Shuttle | Top Testing Metric?

The best testing—if there is one—for quarterbacks is their performance during passing drills. If there’s one metric worth noting, it’s the shuttle time.

• There have been 24 quarterbacks since 2015 from the NFL Combine who have produced a QB1 season. 
• Of those 24, there were 12 quarterbacks with a 4.5 or better shuttle time at the Combine.
• This means you are looking at a 50% chance that a QB1 in fantasy performed well in the shuttle.

40-Yard Dash | Have to Be Fast Enough

• There have been 37 quarterbacks to run a 4.87-second 40-yard dash or slower, and 3 have produced a QB2 season or better.
  • Jameis Winston was the only one to deliver a QB1 season.
• Quarterbacks between 4.6- and 4.8-second 40 times have the most fantasy production of any range with 30% finishing as QB2 or better.

3-Cone Drill | Can’t Be Too Slow

• There have been 28 quarterbacks to finish the 3-cone with a 7.22 or higher score, and none have produced a QB2 or better season.

Draft Capital | Biggest Indicator for Success

• There have been 15 quarterbacks that did not provide NFL Combine numbers that were drafted in Round 1 of the NFL Draft.
  • 12 produced a QB2 or better season
  • 9 delivered a QB1 season

NFL Combine numbers based on an average of multiple sites.

Want to see the fill listing of Combine scores over the last 10 years, please contact me on the Dynasty Nerds Discord or on X at @coachstevenp.

Check back for the 2025 NFL Combine numbers you need to know!

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