It feels like I am still in the “I’m so excited the NFL is finally back” phase, and yet I look at the calendar, and we are about a quarter of the way through the fantasy season! I can begin to see a few patterns emerging across the league. However, there are still quite a few teams I am not convinced are playing to their full potential. For example, I find it hard to believe the Bengals are truly as bad as their record suggests or that the Jaguars will limp to third in their seemingly weak division.
That said, we are officially into October now and getting down to business in our dynasty teams! We are sorting out the contenders from the pretenders, and hopefully, you have been making some solid start-sit decisions to help you decide which one you are! Let’s have a quick look at last week’s picks to see how we did!
Week 4 Hits
Adam Thielen, WR CAR
It is still weird to type Thielen’s name and talk about him on another team besides the Vikings. Thankfully, he did give you solid flex support this week while at the same time not doing quite enough to hand my long-suffering Skol brethren a fourth straight defeat. It’s the little victories, eh?
A very efficient 7 receptions on 8 targets for a healthy 76 yards, but 0 touchdowns was a solid 15.2 fantasy points for your dynasty rosters. Bryce Young was back under center and continued to show the vet some serious love in the target share market. Having said that, Terrace Marshall Jr. out-targeted Thielen in this game. If you are not a clear top contender, it might be a good time to try and move Thielen on for some younger asset or future draft pick.
Dameon Pierce, RB HOU
The Texans have certainly been a surprise so far this season. Not only have they played better than we thought, they have managed to win two games in a row! To be completely honest, they pretty much manhandled the Pittsburgh Steelers. Far before Kenny Pickett got injured, in case you were thinking of making excuses for them!
In a mostly positive game script, Pierce soaked up almost 60% of the snaps and roughly 77% of the rushing attempts from the Texans backfield. You love to see it! Unfortunately, his touchdown got called back on a flag, and he did not participate much in the passing game. Still, a solid 11.8 PPR points isn’t too shabby for Dameon. Certainly, there are some interesting signs of life there!
Courtland Sutton, WR DEN
This was one of the more surprising results of the week. The Bears were (figuratively speaking) mauling the Broncos for a good chunk of this game. They managed to find a way to “Bears” it up and lose in a spectacularly frustrating fashion for the Chicago faithful. No one on the Broncos side has a smash fantasy week, and Sutton only saved himself with a touchdown.
As I have said before, all fantasy points count the same! However, the reality of Sutton only having 3 receptions on 5 targets for 27 yards and a touchdown is sobering. There is a huge mountain to climb in Denver before we can start putting trust in any of the Broncos for our fantasy rosters outside of potential flex plays.
Brandon AIyuk, WR SF
Aiyuk was arguably the biggest hit of the week. He smashed for you if you had him in your lineup. His 6 receptions on 6 targets for 148 yards were good enough for 20.8 fantasy points, even without a touchdown! Aiyuk is a must-start anytime he is healthy enough to see the field. The sad part is that when he is healthy, he seems to take all the Kittle and even Deebo targets to some extent. Samuel played 87% of the snaps and did not get a single target in this game…OUCH!
Joshua Palmer, WR LAC
Palmer managed to just sneak into the hits column on his 3 receptions for 77 yards. A 10.7-point outing isn’t a huge win, but as he was primarily a deeper league play, it certainly didn’t kill you either. This was a bit of a weird game, in all honesty. The Raiders were rolling out rookie quarterback Aiden O’Connell, who was without Davante Adams for a good chunk of the first half. It felt like the Chargers were just comfortable enough not to need to press the situation most of the game. Palmer led the Chargers in targets but could only haul in 38% of them.
Week 4 Misses
Tank Dell, WR HOU
Much like the mighty Icarus of old, my hubris drew me too near the sun (of success), and I overplayed my hand! Thankfully, Tank was my only miss of the week. As I mentioned, the Texans felt like they were in control for most of this game. Nico Collins had a great day; other than that, the Texans leaned on the run. I think brighter days are ahead for Tank, so I wouldn’t necessarily relegate him to the bench in Week 5 against Atlanta. It was a little reality check that he isn’t Puka Nacua.
Recap
Another big week for the flex article! Five hits and only one miss is a whopping 83% hit rate on the week! For the season, the total now stands at 13 and 7, a respectable 65% hit rate! As mentioned previously, I am aiming for a 75% hit rate by the end of the season. It might seem crazy, but there is no sense in setting low targets!
As a reminder, I use the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) as my weekly guidelines. I will pick wide receivers and running backs outside their top 24 to discuss. I will give a couple I like and maybe one or two I don’t and brief reasonings as to why. Hopefully, these studs give you more than 10 PPR points and will all end up in next week’s “hits” section!
Week 5
Romeo Doubs, WR GB (WR30) ⬆️
Go ahead and call me Juliet because I am loving me some Romeo this week! Doubs has been a revelation thus far in the 2023 campaign. He started the season fairly strong but on few targets. He has had 12 and 13 targets in the last two weeks, respectively! I love the volume for Romeo, especially against a middle-of-the-pack Las Vegas Raiders defense. Ideally, Jimmy G is back and can keep the Raiders competitive. Either way, I would be happy enough to slide Romeo into my flex this week!
Michael Wilson, WR ARI (WR41) ⬆️
The Arizona Cardinals have been one of the biggest surprises of the season so far. They don’t have a great record, but they have been competitive and played hard! They put up points against even difficult defenses, and I don’t think the Bengals intimidate me now. Wilson has improved his snapshare and involvement in the offense over the last few weeks. In Week 4, against a very tough San Francisco defense, he managed to go 7 for 7 and add 2 touchdowns to boot! I am not saying to expect the same level of fantasy goodness, but you can flex him at home against the struggling Cincinnati Bengals.
Terrace Marshall, WR CAR (WR 76) ⬆️
This is a deep league special. Terrace Marshall is one of those extreme post-hype sleepers that feels terrifying to even consider starting. However, bye-weeks are upon us, and Marshall has seen his snaps and targets increase in the last two games. In Week 4, he led the Panthers in receptions and targets even with a healthy Adam Thielen on the field. If the Panthers want to stay competitive with the Lions, they must put up some points. You can afford to flex him in 12-team and deeper leagues with multiple flex spots.
Zack Moss, RB IND (RB 35) ⬇️
In all fairness, the Zack Moss experience has been fun so far this season. He is the latest in a long line of replacement-level running backs who benefit from opportunity and lack of competition. We see a few of these pop up every year in fantasy football—an ordinary guy who gets an extraordinary level of opportunity for a time.
This week is a bad week to roll Moss into your lineup unless you are truly desperate. The Tennessee Titans have been inconsistent in many phases of the game, but their run defense is not one of those. They have allowed the third-fewest points to the fantasy running back for four weeks. They have allowed the 4th fewest rushing yards to running backs in general and a total of 1 rushing touchdown this season. I would steer clear if I had any other options.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR NYG (WR50) ⬆️
Now, THIS is a risky call. The G-men have looked abysmal in all but about two-quarters of play this season. They are taking on the Miami Dolphins, who seemingly score for fun. Robinson is still working his way back from a serious knee injury. So why on earth would you risk starting him?! Well, I am glad you asked!
The Giants desperately need a spark on offense. Robinson went from 22% of snaps in his first game this season to 64% of snaps last week. He was becoming a favorite target of Daniel Jones last year before his injury, and the Giants will HAVE to at least attempt to score some points if they don’t want to be humiliated for a second week in a row. It is a risk, but if you know what they say, no risk it, no biscuit!
Conclusion
Those are my selections for your Week 5 consideration. I hope you have extremely good fortune in your lineup setting this weekend and gather in a boatload of W’s!
If you want to chat fantasy football, you can always find me on X / Twitter @FFEvanlution. You can also check out my year-round dynasty fantasy football podcast (@DynastyDebates) on all major podcast listening platforms!
