As the age-old saying laments, what does up, must come down. After a stellar week three, my picks were much more of a mixed bag in week four. On the positive side, I saw my beloved Minnesota Vikings live in London! We narrowly survived the onslaught of the Andy Dalton-led New Orleans Saints at Tottenham Stadium. Now THERE is a sentence I did not imagine typing in the year of our Lord 2022. It wasn’t pretty, but it was a win. I will take it!
Let’s jump into a proper recap of week four and see where things went wrong. Maybe even where some things went right!
Hits
Rhamondre Stevenson
An unusual game, to say the least. Stevenson out-snapped Damien Harris by 55%-45%. He also had five targets to Harris’ one. Frustratingly, Harris got the TD in week four, so he had a nicer afternoon. Stevenson still finished as RB22 in PPR leagues with 12.9 points, so not a complete disaster by any means.
Devin Singletary
The Bills and Ravens gave us another strange game in week four. I expected a scoring bonanza and got a messy, hard-fought, come-from-behind narrow victory for the Buffalo Bills. The Bills played from behind for a good bit of the game, which impacted how I projected Singletary to be used. He still had a decent outing and finished as RB24 with 11.6 PPR points. Most encouragingly for Singletary managers, he played 88% of the snaps and received another five targets in week four!
Misses
Romeo Doubs
Doubs turned out to be a great play in week four. My main reservation had been based on my projected game script between the two teams. Halfway through the second quarter Aaron Rodgers had only attempted four passes. As the game progressed, the Bailey Zappe-led Patriots continued to be a thorn in the Packers’ side. This forced Rodgers to pass much more in the second half. This led to a solid WR23 performance from Doubs. He had five receptions on eight targets and a TD. Doubs could have easily had a second TD and seems to be locked in as one of Rodgers’ favorite targets in the receiver corp.
Elijah Moore
Another week and another agonizingly underwhelming performance from Moore. Once again, he was on the field for the most snaps (90%) and ran the most routes of any Jets receiver. He started the game well and looked to be finally getting the targets he so richly deserves. Sadly, Zach Wilson decided to stop targeting Moore and instead pepper Corey Davis, Breece Hall, and Garret Wilson. Moore finished on three receptions for 53 yards. Number eight finished as WR44 with 8.5 points. This won’t do!
The main issue seems to be the Jets asking Moore to run routes. He is running deeper routes, and the Jets’ Oline isn’t good enough to protect Wilson long enough for these routes to develop. It could be more of the same until the Jets’ Oline gets better or Moore’s role changes.
Mack Hollins
Hunter Renfrow missed another week in concussion protocol. Hollins played 96% of the Raiders’ snaps. He played more than Davante Adams. Hollins must have had a great game, surely?! NO! The Raiders finally remembered they had a former first-round running back on the roster and fed Josh Jacobs like he was at a Vegas breakfast buffet. Jacobs toted the rock 28 times and also had six targets. Adams chipped in with another 13 targets, which left precious little scraps at the buffet for poor Mack. He finished WR57 with 6.3 points. Sigh.
This year’s picks now sit at 10-7. Still a winning record, but I want to win the division, not get a wildcard berth! Let’s get some more W’s this week! As a reminder, I am basing my predictions on FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranks for week 5, PPR scoring. I will only select WRs outside the top 36 or RBs outside the top 24. Let’s get to it!
Week 5
George Pickens, PIT WR43 FantasyPros Rank ⬆️
Pickens had a fantastic Week 4 showcasing an obvious connection with fellow-rookie Kenny Pickett. He finished as WR18, reeling in six receptions on eight targets for 102 yards! Sadly, Pickett and Pickens have to take on the Buffalo Bills this week. This matchup has poured a large bucket of cold water on many people’s enthusiasm for starting the rookie this week. I am not one of those people! Scared money doesn’t make money, and I am betting on Pickens this week!
This is more of a vote of confidence in the receiver than a nod to the matchup. It is difficult for a rookie QB to go up against this formidable defense. I also think Pickens has a shot at being a truly special receiver and has a genuine connection with his QB already. Pickens was the most targeted receiver after Pickett came into the game. He was PFF’s highest-graded offensive and receiving graded wideout in Week 4!
Devin Duvernay BAL WR56 FantasyPros Rank ⬆️
This pick might catch some of you by surprise. Something else that might catch you by surprise is that Duvernay ran more routes, saw more snaps, and had a higher receiving grade (via PFF) and YPRR (Yards Per Route Run) than Rashod Bateman last week. This could easily be influenced by the fact that Bateman is dealing with some mild foot issue. At the moment, there is no clarity on Bateman’s availability for Sunday’s divisional clash with the Cincinnati Bengals. When you combine this with the fact that Vegas has given the game a juicy 48.5 point over/under, I am fairly confident locking D Squared into my flex spot this week.
AJ Dillon GB RB27 FantasyPros Rank ⬆️
This ranking for Dillon is fairly shocking to me, personally. Dillon is in a nearly 50/50 timeshare with Aaron Jones and has seen double-digit carries every game this year. I have doubts about the NY Giants’ ability to push the Packers in London this week. Daniel Jones’s ankle injury last weekend won’t be at full strength. The NY receiving corp is arguably the worst in the NFL currently. Saquon is having a fantastic season, and the Packers are vulnerable on the ground, but Barkley is only one man.
I think the Packers will want to slow the game down and pound the rock with Dillon and Jones. The Giants’ defense is ranked 21st in DVOA and gives up 141 rushing yards per game (28th in the league.)
Raheem Mostert MIA RB36 FantasyPros Rank ⬆️
Tua has already been confirmed as out this week. Teddy Bridgewater will make his first start for the Miami Dolphins in this divisional showdown with the NY Jets. Bridgewater is my dictionary definition of a game manager. I expect there to be some passing but nothing aggressive or risky. The Jets’ defense is ranked 25th in DVOA but only 14th for rushing DVOA. They only give up just over 108 yards per game on the ground.
I think the Dolphins will want to try and establish the run and keep turnover-worthy plays to a minimum. Mostert played 72% of the snaps last Thursday night compared to Edmonds’ 28%. He also had 15 rushing opportunities. I think as long as Mostert stays healthy, McDaniel has shown he wants him to be the dude. Chase has been lucky with the TDs the last couple of weeks, but Raheem is a speed demon and always capable of breaking a big play.
Recap
There you have it, folks, some juicy picks for your week five matchups! I hope you get some much-deserved good fortune this game week, and all your studs stay healthy!
If you want to chat about any of these picks or talk fantasy football in general, you can find me on Twitter @FFEvanlution
I will catch you here next week!
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