The most obvious place to start is to say Happy (belated) Thanksgiving Day from over here in Northern Ireland! I hope your bellies were full and your IR was empty! When this article comes out, several games will be played for week 12. I will shoot for some pure upside picks this week in case you find yourself in a hole after Turkey Day!
First things first, a recap of last week’s picks!
Hits
Isiah Pacheco
It wasn’t the smash success we had all dreamed of, but Pacheco was serviceable as the lead back in KC. Isiah finished as the RB23 with 10.7 PPR points. He looks good running the ball, but with his completely non-existent role in the passing game, it seems he is somewhat of a TD-dependent flex option.
AJ Dillon
It is always a sad day when you are right about someone NOT having a good game. Dillon only managed six rush attempts and one reception on Thursday Night Football. He was still on the field for 48% of the snaps, but until things change, there doesn’t seem to be much point starting him.
Parris Campbell
Campbell gave us another okay but not stellar performance last week. He turned in a very efficient five receptions on six targets for 67 yards but sadly, no TD. As a flex play, 11.7 PPR points is completely acceptable, but it probably didn’t win you your week.
Misses
Elijah Mitchell
I fell for Kyle Shannahan’s Shenanigans once more last week. Mitchell only got nine rush attempts in a game where the 49ers completely manhandled the Cardinals and scored 38 points. In fairness to Mitchell, he was very efficient with his nine rush attempts. Sadly, when you don’t get a TD and have zero involvement in the passing game, you will have to be historically efficient to have a good fantasy outing on nine rush attempts. Spoiler alert, he did not.
Brian Robinson Jr.
Now this one is a head-scratcher, and no mistake. Robinson bossed the backfield against a very stout Eagles team in week ten, then turned around and had a near 50/50 split with Gibson in week 11. Robinson only played 34% of the snaps and had zero targets and a mediocre 57 yards on 15 rush attempts. A swing and a miss from me. If you aren’t getting passing work, you need to be getting the bulk of the work and the goalline carries.
If you read last week’s article, you know I included Jaylen Warren in the list. I have decided not to include him on the “Misses” list because he injured himself literally within the first five minutes of the game. He only played 4% of the snaps, so I don’t think you can judge if he was a good play or not.
On the year, the total sits at 31-17, so 65% still (if you round up). I shall continue the quest for the mythical 70% hit rate. As a reminder, all players are outside the top 36 (WR) and top 24 (RB) from the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank for the week. I am using the PPR scoring setting.
Let’s dig in!
Week 12
Treylon Burks TEN WR44 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank
Burks had his breakout game against the Packers last week on Thursday Night Football. The rookie first-round WR led the Titans in targets and snagged seven for 111 yards!
This week, going up against the Bengals will be a difficult task. The Bengals have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to the outside wide receiver on the season. Burks played most of his snaps out wide against the Packers but certainly can drop into the slot if needed. A healthy King Henry will demand a lot of attention, so a few long shots can be taken in this game!
Rachaad White TB RB24 FantasyPros Expert Conensus Rank
I like White’s matchup this week. The Browns have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to the RB position this season. Cleveland ranks dead last in RUSH DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. White is coming off the bye week, and the last time he was on the field, he was rushing 22 times for over 100 yards against the Seahawks.
I am concerned about his lack of passing work in this offense. I think if you are shooting for the ceiling this week, there is a world where White gets in the endzone and has some big chunk plays.
Brandin Cooks HOU WR42 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank
The Davis Mills hype train has officially been derailed; it would seem. The news on the street is that Kyle Allen will be starting this week against the Dolphins. Mills has not been able to take that step in his second year and, if anything, has regressed fairly significantly. I am no Kyle Allen stan, but if the change is being made at QB, the general vibe must be that he can’t be any worse for the team.
Miami is surprisingly not a terrible matchup for WRs, and they currently rank 29th in PASS DVOA. We know that Tua and Co. will score some points, so if the Texans try to make this a game, Cooks should be a factor.
Demarcus Robinson BAL WR54 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank
Robinson just had an incredible nine-reception performance against the Carolina Panthers last week. He led the entire Ravens receiving corp (including Mark Andrews) in targets, receptions, and yardage.
According to PFF, the number one receiver in Week 11 gets to take on a Jacksonville Jaguars team that ranks 31st in PASS DVOA in Week 12. If you are shooting for the stars, you could do a lot worse this week!
Conclusion
There we have it, folks. This is a slightly smaller-than-usual offering, but as I mentioned, several games are already in the bag, and we are trying to shoot for pure upside this week! I hope you all had time to spend with the people you love this week!
If you want to chat about anything fantasy football, you can catch me on Twitter @FFEvanlution or check out my podcast Dynasty Debates (@DynastyDebates) on all major podcast listening platforms!
Enjoy the games and get some W’s!
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