This one is a shocker, but the Green Bay Packers have shocked many of us and signed prized free agent running back Josh Jacobs. Jacobs signed a four-year deal worth up to $48 million. The agreement includes a $12.5 million signing bonus; he will earn $14.8 million in year one. In the same sense, the Packers have also released veteran Aaron Jones, so Jacobs will be a workhorse back in Green Bay. Can Jacobs find similar success in Green Bay as he did in Las Vegas!?
Josh Jacobs’ History
Jacobs spent five seasons with the Las Vegas Raiders and had solid success there. He had over 800 rushing yards and six touchdowns in all five seasons. Jacobs has been consistent when it came to a fantasy running back since 2019. He would average 4.2 YPC and increase his receiving output over the last three seasons. In 2022, Jacobs would lead the league in rushing with 1,653 yards and have 12 rushing touchdowns. In fantasy, he would have two RB1 seasons and be on the way to another low-end RB1 season before getting injured.
The Packers Offense
Jacobs will be joining the Packers, who have had success with fantasy running back over Matt LaFluer’s time as head coach. LaFluer’s rushing offense with the Packers has been mediocre over his career. He has been a top 15 rushing unit in four of five seasons but only once in the top ten. Unfortunately, LaFluer has never had a workhorse running back in his career. The Packers always have had two running backs over 100 carries, and no back has gone over 236 in the last five years. Jones was a stable of the backfield, splitting time with Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillion in that span. Usually, Jones would be the passing down back, while the other was more of the early down back.
The Packers have a top-ten offensive line despite the team losing a player like David Buatiskiwho, who they just released this week. Lafluer did involve his running back in the passing game as well. Jones had 60 targets in four of five seasons. He would have done that this year if he didn’t get hurt in the early portion of the season. The only issue is that the offense that they do have many receivers who saw targets last season. Jones was sixth in targets on the team last year.
Jacobs’ Dynasty Value
Jacobs is going into a situation where he will be part of an excellent offense. Jordan Love was second in the league in red zone attempts. Love dealt with up-and-down running back play all season. Jacobs could be coming into a situation where he gets a lot of chances to score a touchdown. We’ve seen Jacobs have double-digit touchdowns in this career. The real question is if the Packers plan to bring another back to complement Jacobs in the backfield. The backfield is mostly just Jacobs right now, so we can see the first workhorse for LaFluer since he was the OC with the Rams in 2017.
It will be interesting to see how much Jacobs is involved in the passing game. We have seen Aaron Jones consistently meet his targets throughout his career. Suppose Jacobs can see that in the 50 to 70 range of targets, he could return to an RB1. He could have a chance even with less, but it won’t be as likely. The issue still could be the offense’s focus on targeting the receivers and tight ends.
Jacobs, as long as he doesn’t get any competition for touches, should be a top-12 fantasy running back. He would likely be a running back with around 225 carries and 45 targets in this offense. Jacobs would likely go for a first and second-round pick in his new situation. You missed your chance to buy low on Jacobs, and his value could increase as the season goes on. Jacobs signing with the Packers is an A rating grade, and dynasty owners should be thrilled with Jacobs on their roster.
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