Welcome back, IDP Nerds; it’s officially the last week of the regular season. I hope you already have a playoff spot locked up, but if not, you came to the right place. We will dive deep into what matchups are crucial to help you get the most points out of your lineup in a must-win week. Unfortunately, we were hit by some unlucky breaks, including a few injuries that cost us some production in Week 13. We came in at 41.6% accuracy, our lowest hit rate since Week 5, which was also a case of some bad injury luck. The season total is still at 56%, and I’m looking for a big bounce-back week, especially given the playoffs are one week away. Let’s take a look at what we have found for Week 14.
Check out the teams putting together the start/sit columns this season. Follow us, friend us, and tweet us. We look forward to hearing from you!
- QB: Mike Hicks (@DroptheMikeFF) – Changing the Call
- RB: Jake Oliver (@DarthDbacks) – The Cutback
- WR: Tristan Cook (@THEtristancook) – Slant Pattern
- TE: Steven Pintado (@CoachStevenP) – 12 Formation
- FLEX: Evan Brown (@FFEVanlution) – Let’s Talk About Flex
- IDP: Jon Glosser (@Glosser13) – IDP Start/Sit
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sit
Arnold Ebiketie DL, Atlanta Falcons
I know Arnold Ebiketie burned us last week, but a late sack was his only tackle of the game. It just so happened to be a major impact play with a sack-fumble forced. I still don’t love the defensive snap share and tackle floor enough to justify having the Falcons’ EDGE rusher in your lineups. He has five sacks and two forced fumbles in his last five games. He has a tough matchup against a divisional rival in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Tampa Bay offensive line held him to just one tackle on 31 snaps in Week 7. I would expect more of the same in this matchup, with the Tampa Bay offense only allowing 2.3 sacks per game this season.
Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens
Start
Jordan Fuller DB, Los Angeles Rams
Jordan Fuller has been as steady as they come at the defensive back position over the past month of the season. The former Ohio State Buckeye has a good matchup this week against the Baltimore Ravens, who have allowed the second most tackles (191) to the safety position this season. The Baltimore offense is allowing 15.9 tackles per game to the position.
Jordan Fuller has surpassed double-digit fantasy points in six straight games. He’s averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game during that stretch. He’s also averaged 6 tackles per game over his first 12 games played this season. This matchup is too good to pass up for IDP managers. Make sure Jordan Fuller is in your lineups this week.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
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Jaquan Brisker DB, Chicago Bears
IDP managers have realized it’s been a rough season for the second-year pro from Penn State. The Chicago Bears’ young safety is experiencing a down season after taking the NFL by storm as a rookie. Brisker is on pace to fall short of the tackle and impact play numbers he reached in his first season, but he has been playing much better as of late. Jaquan Brisker has recorded 34 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, and an interception over his last five games. He has finished with at least 11 fantasy points in each of those games.
Jaquan Brisker has a favorable matchup this week against the Detroit Lions, who he has had very good success against in his career. The Penn State product has averaged over 12 fantasy points against the Lions over his first three career games against them. The Detroit offense also surrenders the fifth most tackles per game (14.9) to the safety position this season. This is a no-brainer; we should see another solid performance from Jaquan Brisker this week.
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals
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Germaine Pratt LB, Cincinnati Bengals
Germaine Pratt makes another appearance as a start recommendation in Week 13 with a favorable matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. Most of the praise goes to Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson, but his running mate Germain Pratt is quietly having a career year for the Cincinnati defense. The former North Carolina State LB is on pace to have his first 100+ tackle season while recording at least five impact plays for a third consecutive season.
I’m a fan of Pratt in this matchup against the Colts. Indianapolis allows 17.5 tackles per game to the LB position. Germaine Pratt has recorded at least seven tackles in seven of his twelve games this season. He’s recorded 10+ tackles in four games this season, including 18 tackles over his past two games combined. This is a good opportunity to get some big production out of an LB who continuously flies under the radar in IDP leagues.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns
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Rayshawn Jenkins DB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Rayshawn Jenkins has been one of the rare waiver wire adds that has stuck around on contending IDP dynasty teams for multiple seasons. The former Miami Hurricane defensive back has just eclipsed 150+ fantasy points for his fourth consecutive season while playing for two different teams. Jenkins doesn’t get the love that some of the other consistent defensive backs do, but he continues to show up big. The Jaguars DB has finished with 10+ points in 75% of his games this season. The Cleveland Browns are the 11th most favorable matchup to safeties, allowing 13.9 tackles per game. The Browns offense has also surrendered seven DB1 weeks this season. It’s a very important week, so my advice is not to overthink it; Rayshawn Jenkins deserves a spot in your lineup.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
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Carl Granderson DL, New Orleans Saints
Carl Granderson has been a stud this season for the underperforming New Orleans defense from an IDP perspective. Granderson was on pace for a career year in sacks with 5.5 after just eight games, but he has been stuck on that number since. The University of Wyoming product has not recorded an impact play in his last four games and has finished under ten fantasy points in 50% of those games. There’s no better time to put Granderson back in your lineup than this week against the Carolina Panthers. The Saints EDGE rusher recorded 17 fantasy points in his last outing against the Panthers. The Carolina offensive line allows nearly four sacks per game and has allowed ten DL1 weeks this season. They are one of three teams this season to allow 10+ top 12 performances to the position. Carl Granderson should bounce back in a big week in a huge spot for your teams.
Houston Texans @ New York Jets
Sit
Denzel Perryman LB, Houston Texans
The linebacker rotation and situation in Houston have become a complete mess. As an IDP manager, it’s pretty frustrating as we see some other teams in the league who could easily use one of these players in an every-down role. I never thought we would get to the point of the season where Blake Cashman would be the only trustable LB in this rotation, but here we are.
This is a bad situation, with the Texans likely looking to go with more youth in Henry To’oTo’o and Christian Harris. It likely leaves Denzel Perryman on the outside looking in after this season. Perryman has struggled with injuries and suspensions this year, which have put him in a rotational role. This matchup is not ideal either, as the New York Jets are the second least favorable matchup to LBs this season. This situation is a fade for me in a week of football that potentially has so much riding on it.
Minnesota Vikings @ Las Vegas Raiders
Start
Divine Deablo LB, Las Vegas Raiders
This game will be talked about all week as Justin Jefferson’s return takes center stage. That being said, it’s a wonderful matchup for the linebackers of the Las Vegas Raiders. The entire IDP community has been gushing over Robert Spillane, who has been nothing short of sensational this season. Divine Deablo has an excellent chance to have a big week for IDP managers needing help with the position. The former hybrid player from Virginia Tech has 18 tackles and a fumble recovery in his last three games. He’s playing a complementary role to Robert Spillane but is capable of big weeks with 10+ points in two of his last three games. The Minnesota Vikings have allowed eight LB1 weeks this season. I have enough confidence to start Divine Deablo in my lineups in Week 14.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
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Devon Witherspoon DB, Seattle Seahawks
You all know I wouldn’t let you down for your CB-required leagues. I love the rookie DB Devon Witherspoon and what he’s been able to do this season. The rookie cornerback has recorded double-digit fantasy points in ten of eleven games this season. He’s also recorded over 20 fantasy points four times, including a 50+ point performance in Week 4. Witherspoon has five straight games with 13 fantasy points or more. The Seahawks rookie is quickly earning the spot to be started in non-CB-required leagues as well. I would keep riding the hot hand here and keep Devon Witherspoon in your lineup as long as he’s putting up these numbers weekly.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Start
Nick Bolton LB, Kansas City Chiefs
We are typically cautious when a player returns from injured reserve, but when a player with the impact of Nick Bolton is returning, it’s all gas, no brakes. This is a must-win matchup for two of the NFL’s best teams over the past few years. The Chiefs are hurting at LB and will need their stud LB to show up big in this one. Nick Bolton has averaged 21 fantasy points per game against the Buffalo Bills in his last two regular season games. The Bills have allowed 18.5 tackles per game to the LB position this season. If you’re fortunate enough to have Nick Bolton coming off the IR this week, get him in your lineup ahead of this game.
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sit
Justin Simmons DB, Denver Broncos
Justin Simmons and the Denver Broncos have a tough stretch over their final five games. They will likely need to win out to make the postseason. Simmons has been inconsistent this season, finishing with double-digit fantasy points in just 50% of his games. He has succeeded against the Chargers over the past four matchups, finishing with 10+ points in three of four games. The Chargers have only allowed one top-12 DB week this season, allowing around the league average of 13.6 tackles per game to the position. Simmons has just 10 points over his last two games combined, and I have confidence in other DBs this week in a high-pressure matchup for your dynasty teams. I would look to see if you can find a more favorable matchup if you’re desperate for DB production this week.
Philadelphia @ Dallas Cowboys
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DaRon Bland DB, Dallas Cowboys
We often fade cornerbacks in IDP leagues that don’t require them as a starting position. However, when we are witnessing a season like DaRon Bland is having, we must adjust our thinking. The Cowboys DB is having an electric season with eight interceptions and five defensive touchdowns. He has double-digit fantasy points in all but two games this season. This is a must-watch matchup with the NFC East division potentially on the line. You would think Bland will be tested much like Seattle did a week ago. DaRon Bland has been targeted 23 times in the past two games. He ranks 10th in the NFL in targets. The Philadelphia Eagles have surrendered seven DB1 weeks this season. I like this matchup for Bland and the Dallas defensive backs.
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
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Zach Sieler DL, Miami Dolphins
I wouldn’t let you guys down without a DT-required player in a primetime matchup. Zach Sieler has a nice matchup on a doubleheader Monday Night Football slate this week. The Miami Dolphins defensive lineman has averaged 13 fantasy points per game over his last four games. The Tennessee Titans rank as the 13th most favorable matchup for the DL position. The Titans have also allowed six DL1 weeks through 13 weeks. Christian Wilkins comes into this week with a questionable tag, but that shouldn’t affect the impact Zach Sieler should have in this one.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
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Micah McFadden LB, New York Giants
This is a plus matchup in a few areas for IDP managers but unfortunately, there are a few big-time players carrying injury designations heading into this one. The last thing IDP managers want to do is risk starting a zero in a pivotal matchup with their season potentially on the line. I’ll throw most of the numbers aside and roll with Micah McFadden in this one. The former Indiana Hoosier has been great this season, he’s had 10+ fantasy points in nine straight games.
The Green Bay Packers offense has been very good as of late and is leaning heavily on A.J. Dillon. The run game should give the Giants linebackers plenty of opportunities to rack up tackles. McFadden has already set career highs this season in tackles, fumble recoveries, and interceptions. I expect him to run his double-digit streak up to 10 games as we head into the fantasy playoffs.
The Wrap-up
That wraps up an exciting Week 14 slate of games. I anticipate a stressful week for IDP managers trying to will their team to a win to either make the playoffs or improve their playoff position. I truly appreciate you all checking in all season long, and I’m excited to give you some postseason notes to help throughout your playoff runs. As always, good luck this week, and enjoy the games.
