With Super Bowl weekend behind us, the NFL offseason is officially underway, meaning free agency is right around the corner. Of course, free agency will majorly impact the future of all thirty-two franchises. More important to us as dynasty managers is that our assets now have a chance to experience a change of fortune. Good or bad? Time will tell. I’ll do my best to pull out my crystal ball, predict where the top-position players will end up this offseason, and provide insight on how to view their dynasty value going forward.
(The age shown is accurate for when the 2024 season begins)
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins, 36 years old – Vikings
As long as Cousins suffers no setbacks with his torn Achilles, I expect him to return to the purple and gold this coming season. Justin Jefferson is going to expect a contract extension and has been open about his support for his teammate:
Minnesota Vikings Justin Jefferson reportedly wants Kirk Cousins back as his QB next season. pic.twitter.com/0mH75sGg3g
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) November 1, 2023
If I were the Vikings’ front office, I would do everything to ensure their generational superstar wide receiver is happy. The NFC is wide-open, so it would make sense for the Vikings to capitalize on Cousins’ few great seasons left.
Just a reminder, Cousins was the QB6 before he got hurt this past year.
Baker Mayfield, 29 – Buccaneers
There’s not much shakeup with the top two free-agent quarterbacks this year as the Bucs look to build upon their recent successful season where they crowned themselves NFC South champions. Dave Canales is onto Carolina, looking to fix another struggling quarterback. Still, I think his impact on Mayfield’s career will cement the latter as the Buccaneers’ field general for several more years after receiving a well-deserved contract extension. Mayfield will continue to be a solid QB2 option in Superflex.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry, 30 – Ravens
Everybody keeping up with trade rumors this past season thought Henry to the Ravens would be a done deal. I believe it will be after a meaningful farewell to Titan’s nation.
"Titans fans… Thank you for the greatest 8 years of my life."
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) January 7, 2024
Derrick Henry says farewell to the fans in Nashville 🥹❤️
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/uH49POKY0U
After a disappointing postseason effort, the Ravens need another dimension added to their run game to maximize their offense’s potential. They seemed to be finding just that with the emergence of Keaton Mitchell, which ended up vanishing quickly once Mitchell tore his ACL. Henry appears to be a “Goldilocks” type of fit for Baltimore; he won’t be too expensive and break the bank, but not enough of an unknown commodity where his contract will entail risk. I believe Henry will be devouring TDs in this run-heavy offense; try to acquire him before this porridge heats up too quickly.
Josh Jacobs, 26 – Texans
Tensions between Jacobs and the Raiders organization have been well documented. It was a down year for the former NFL rushing champ, and I believe the Raiders will be looking to move on from Jacobs and transition into more of a committee with Zamir White as the incumbent.
The Texans were no doubt one of the biggest surprises of the NFL in 2023. With the fourth-most cap space heading into 2024 per Spotrac, I fully expect this offense to add a high-caliber running back to take some of the weight off CJ Stroud’s shoulder. Addressing the offensive line will be another critical area of focus. Josh Jacob could be in store for a big-time bounce-back year if he lands in Houston.
Tony Pollard, 27 – Chargers
Let’s be honest: Pollard was one of the biggest disappointments in 2023 relative to expectations. His efficiency plummeted to 4.0 Y/A after an explosive 5.2 Y/A in 2022. Could the ankle injury Pollard sustained in the playoffs be responsible for this? Possibly. Regardless, Dallas chooses to move on and look elsewhere for a more productive workhorse-type back.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Chargers operate with new head coach Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh consistently excelled in generating one of the top rushing attacks in the nation at Michigan. While the Chargers will need to clear cap space, Pollard’s price may have dipped enough to where an opportunity in LA opens up for him. Pollard to the Chargers is a best-case scenario for his dynasty value as he hopes to look more like his 2022 self.
Saquon Barkley, 27 – Cowboys
With the aforementioned Pollard gone, the Cowboys will need a solution to the gaping hole that is the running back position on their depth chart. What better player to fill that other than the top RB on the market in 2023? While Barkley has expressed his desire to return to the team that drafted him (like most players), cash is typically the top priority when helping running backs decide where they want to play due to the short shelf life that entails the position. It has been reported that the Giants may not want to pay Barkley what he believes is fair market value.
The pressure is on for the Cowboys to succeed in the NFL playoffs. With a somewhat solidified roster to date, Dallas could be in a situation where they can spend on a luxury position like running back. It may feel like a punch to the gut of Saquon to make his former division foe his new home, but it makes sense for both sides. If this dream scenario plays out, a high-end RB1 is back in store for Barkley.
Austin Ekeler, 29 – Chiefs
Another year, another Chiefs Super Bowl appearance. The days of Ekeler being an elite RB asset are over. At this point in his career, he may want to chase a ring after being part of a Chargers team that always seemed to underwhelm. Isiah Pacheco has had a stranglehold on the RB1 job in Kansas City. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them target another pass-catching running back to retain the role that Jerrick McKinnon provided until his regular season ended due to injury in 2023. Pacheco was also banged up for a portion of the year, so adding a proven veteran like Ekeler would be wise for the Chiefs. Ekeler would still have value in a Mahomes-led offense and be a valuable PPR RB2 at this point in his career.
Ezekiel Elliott, 29 – Bills
I debated whether or not to include Zeke on this list… but if this landing spot occurred, he would be worth mentioning. Buffalo was content with giving 34-year-old Latavius Murray a meaningful role in the offense. Since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, the Bills eclipsed the best run success rate in the NFL while running the ball at the second-highest clip (BuffaloNews.com). Elliott still has just enough left in the tank where he could be a decent depth piece for your dynasty squad.
Devin Singletary, 27 – Giants
With Barkley potentially departing the team, there will be an obvious hole to fill for the Giants at running back. Singletary settles in here with a clear path to touches while battling it out with a possible rookie addition. The best case for Singletary is that DeMeco Ryans liked what he saw, and he gets a chance to return to Houston, but I see a scenario like this one with the Giants being the more likely of the two. Singletary figures to be an RB3 with a limited ceiling.
D’Andre Swift, 25 – Eagles
It was an odd homecoming for Swift in the 2023 season. Primarily used as a receiving threat in Detroit, the Eagles failed to utilize this area of strength:
D'Andre Swift finished the season with 39 catches and 214 receiving yards. Did the Eagles underutilize him in the passing game?
— JAKIB Sports (@JAKIBSports) February 5, 2024
(h/t @EagleFanCentral) pic.twitter.com/NQAoKBo56B
Jalen Hurts didn’t look right for most of the year, and the offense suffered. With Kellen Moore at the helm for OC, I expect the premier play-caller to utilize his weapons to their maximum capacity. Does the “tush-push” get banned or become less effective if Jason Kelce does officially retire? If so, Swift would undoubtedly get an opportunity to add to the mediocre six-touchdown total he amassed last year. Sure, there are question marks around the Eagles, but I don’t think Swift should be one of them. It would be prudent for both parties to agree with a deal and prove that 2023 was a fluke. Swift could be a top-end RB2 with RB1 upside if the touchdowns start going his way, along with added receiving work.
JK Dobbins, 25 – Vikings
Even if the Vikings decide they would like to make mid-season riser Ty Chandler the feature back in 2024, Minnesota will undoubtedly look to add some depth to the position. Dobbins will rehab from a torn Achilles he suffered in Week 1 this offseason. At 25 years old, he’s still young enough that teams will be willing to take a chance to buy low at the Ohio State star. We already saw the Vikings take the same opportunity on Cam Akers, who was also recovering from an Achilles injury. If they’re willing to take another flier on the position, Dobbins could see himself with some opportunity in a slim running back room.
Antonio Gibson, 26 – Bears
Once a darling of the dynasty community, Gibson is in desperate need of a resurgence. It may be possible that he finds a much-needed breath of fresh air in the “Windy City” with the possibility of a revamped offense with Caleb Williams at the helm. It will be crowded, with Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert likely taking all the in-between-the-tackle work. Presuming Justin Fields is traded, and Caleb Williams truly is a difference maker, Gibson may be able to grab hold of a pass-catching role that may have some flex appeal in PPR leagues. I don’t expect much of a change in value for Gibson unless an injury opens up a full workload for him.
AJ Dillon, 26 – Titans
The Tyjae Spears hype is real, and Dillon coming into town won’t affect that in the slightest. Spears has a slighter frame, so Tennessee may want somebody to take the brunt of the dirty short-yardage work. Dillon has no value here except as a handcuff and touchdown vulture to the emerging Spears.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans, 31 – Ravens
Why should we have ever doubted Evans? The future Hall-of-Famer didn’t miss a beat in 2023 with Mayfield at the helm and solidified himself as one of the best pass-catchers available in the free agent market for 2024.
Baltimore will continue to look for ways to improve their squad after another devastating playoff loss in the AFC title game. Evans would slot in perfectly alongside Zay Flowers as the “X” receiver that the Ravens desperately need. I’m not sure Evans will repeat as the league leader in touchdowns while on the Ravens, but the offense will have plenty of firepower to ensure Evans has a few more top-end fantasy football finishes left in him.
Michael Pittman Jr, 26 – Colts
Pittman has turned into a stud wideout and is the focal point of the Colts passing game. His prowess over the middle of the field may go unnoticed to some, but Indy knows they need to bring back their #1 option to try to level up their offense in 2024 and beyond with Anthony Richardson at the helm. Pittman may not offer the same consistency he had with Gardner Minshew peppering him with targets. However, Richardson could showcase a new ceiling we never had seen from Pittman.
Tee Higgins, 25 – Bengals
As of mid-February, reports are being made that Higgins will be franchise-tagged by Cincy this offseason:
𝗥𝗘𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗧: The #Bengals are expected to use the franchise tag on Star WR Tee Higgins to prevent him from hitting free agency, per @TheAthletic pic.twitter.com/4clTMrWSnR
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) February 13, 2024
After an up-and-down past season plagued with injuries, franchise-tagging Higgins makes sense for the Bengals. These situations can get ugly, so time will tell whether he will play under the tag or possibly sign it and demand a trade. I’ll leave the speculation to reporters closer to the situation as we get a feel for what may happen later in the offseason. For now, it seems Higgins won’t be signing anywhere else in free agency.
Calvin Ridley, 29 – Panthers
There were plenty of questions regarding how Ridley will play once back on the field in 2023, and unfortunately, we’re still left without many answers. I know the Panthers need help at wide receiver; sorry, Adam Thielen. The twenty-nine-year-old Ridley will FINALLY be free of his rookie deal and seeking to get paid. With the inconsistencies he showed last year, I’m not so sure the Jaguars want him back in town. Carolina doesn’t have much draft capital to work with, so signing a free agent like Ridley is probably their best bet at acquiring a potential difference-maker at wideout.
Gabe Davis, 25 – Chiefs
If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em, right? Although Patrick Mahomes seemingly could win a Super Bowl with high school wideouts, it won’t hurt the Chiefs to add more faces to their wide receiver room this offseason. Davis has had his fair share of ups and downs in his career. Going to Kansas City may not change that for him, but at least it will build some fantasy appeal for the still-young 25-year-old.
Odell Beckham Jr., 31 – Jets
Once the cream of the crop of dynasty fantasy circles, OBJ has become more of an afterthought over the past few seasons after dealing with multiple serious injuries and inconsistent production. There were even rumors that Beckham was seriously considering retiring, although he has seemingly put that narrative to rest:
NEWS: Impending free agent & 3x Pro Bowl WR Odell Beckham Jr. has NO PLANS to retire.
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) January 30, 2024
“To me, if there is anything I felt about myself — regardless of anybody's opinion or anything like that — is that I know that I can still play”
OBJ plans to do the his legendary career. pic.twitter.com/m4rISKm2d9
Does he still have any gas left in the tank? The same question will be asked about his four-time NFL MVP quarterback if he strikes a deal with the Jets. Outside of Garrett Wilson, the Jets had nobody emerge as a legitimate secondary weapon in the receiving game unless you count Breece Hall’s insane usage down the stretch. OBJ might be able to squeeze some juice out of his return to the “Big Apple” if he becomes a safety valve for Rodgers.
Curtis Samuel, 28 – Dolphins
Though the Commanders’ offense was a mess for most of the year, Samuel quietly had five games over 14 fantasy points. Place him on a high-flying offense like the Dolphins, and Samuel becomes an attractive penny stock buy this offseason. Mike McDaniel is always looking for creative ways to involve his skill players. Samuel would add another dynamic to Miami’s offense by using his versatility on end-arounds and screen passes to showcase his YAC ability. If Samuel winds up in a situation like this, he may be able to produce low-end WR3 numbers with an upside if Waddle or Hill misses any time.
Marquise Brown, 27 – Bills
While his time as a number one option hasn’t panned out, “Hollywood” Brown can still do his part to stretch the field. Buffalo could use a deep threat, and Brown can still fit that bill. He may have some weekly upside in that role, but good luck figuring out what weeks to start him. There would be fantasy intrigue with Josh Allen, but I’m not too sure I’d be buying the hype here. Until Brown can consistently stay healthy, I’m staying away.
Darnell Mooney, 27 – Steelers
After a solid 81-1055-4 campaign in 2021, Mooney hasn’t surpassed either three of those numbers in the past two seasons combined while playing in twenty-seven games during that stretch. A poor passing scheme and Chicago’s run-orientated offense hadn’t done Mooney any favors. He gets a second chance here in Pittsburgh to add a vertical element to their offense, though I don’t see this landing spot being much of an upgrade for Mooney’s fantasy value.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry, 29 – Seahawks
Pete Carroll refused to incorporate the tight end position into the Seahawks’ offense. Maybe Mike Macdonald gleams inspiration from his time with the Ravens watching Mark Andrews dominate and chooses a different philosophy. Henry has always had touchdown upside at tight end, but it’s hard to envision much consistency for fantasy purposes with the trio of receivers Geno Smith will have to feed.
Dalton Schultz, 28 – Texans
A reunion with the Texans is most likely the best-case scenario for Schultz. CJ Stroud is the real deal and has proven he can supply plenty of production to multiple pass-catchers. Stroud and Shultz occasionally showed chemistry in the passing game, as Shultz posted seven or more targets in six of the fifteen games he was healthy for. I’d be willing to lock Schultz into another low-end TE1 season if back in Houston.
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