Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• FNF: 8:15 pm @ Corinthians Arena in São Paulo, Brazil
• Weather – Warm & Clear Night
• Philadelphia Eagles are favored (-3) with an Over/Under of 48.5

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love is in a good situation for FNF against a defense that was terrible against fantasy quarterbacks last year. While the Eagles’ secondary got more talented in the draft, it’s a young, inexperienced group. Love has all the weapons to be successful, and he should be considered a low-end QB1 in Week 1. One thing to look for is how this offensive line will hold up after losing Jason Kelce and Sua Opeta in the offseason.

• Game Day Fact: Love averaged 17.7 ppg in the first 8 games of 2023, but in the final 9 games, Love averaged 20.9 ppg.

Jalen Hurts lost out on a home game to play in Brazil. The Packers made key defensive moves in the secondary by signing safety Xavier McKinney and cornerback Keisean Nixon. This unit ranked in the top 10 against fantasy quarterbacks last season. Jalen Hurts was uneven in the passing game last year, but his rushing upside made up the difference. Last year, the Packers gave the fourth most rushing yards to quarterbacks. We will see firsthand when the Eagles are on the goalline if Saquon Barkley steals Hurts’ opportunities. In Week 1, you must continue to trust Hurts as a QB1 in fantasy.

• Game Day Fact: In four career Thursday Night Football games, Hurts has averaged two total touchdowns per game.

Running Backs

We will get a first look at another free agent running back who switched teams. Josh Jacobs has been dealing with hamstring issues but should be fine for Week 1. The Eagles were in the top 10 in stopping fantasy running backs on a per-game basis. They lost two elite players up front in Fletcher Cox and Haason Reddick, so they could be shaky to start the season. This week, the Packers should use Jacobs as a workhorse, allowing him to get the red zone and passing work. Thanks to his rushing ability, Jacobs should be ranked as a low-end RB1. The backup job is one to watch if the team uses Emmanuel Wilson or Marshawn Llyod (who barely escaped IR designation). Neither are in the top 40 running backs in week one.

• Game Day Fact: Packers running backs finished as RB18 or better each of the five weeks they received 20-plus carries in 2023.

On the other side of the offense, we have another prize-free agent running back, Saquon Barkley. He gets a solid matchup in his first game as an Eagle. The Packers were a below-average run defense that didn’t improve in the off-season. They allowed 13 rushing touchdowns last season, and the Eagles had 22 rushing touchdowns on offense. If the Eagles move away from the Tush Push, then Barkley can score in this game. Barkley should be considered an RB1. Backup running back Kenneth Gainwell has the trust of the offense and could still have a role in critical situations as a borderline RB4 to start Week 1.

• Game Day Fact: Hurts had 8 rushing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line in 2023. This could be good for Barkley.

Wide Receivers

The Eagles receivers are only AJ Brown and Devonta Smith for now. It remains to be seen if recently traded for Jahan Dotson will have fantasy value weekly. The Packers have a very strong secondary going into the season. This won’t be easy for the receiving duo for week one. Brown could get shadowed by Jaire Alexander, who was elite at keeping his opponents under 80 receiving yards all last season. Brown will command targets despite the hard matchup and finish as a WR1 in Week 1. With Brown potentially tied up, Smith could see more targets, leading to a WR2 week.

• Game Day Fact: Smith averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game (8 games) when he saw 6 or more targets in 2023.

The most challenging position group to judge is the Packers receivers. The Eagle’s secondary was the second-worst against fantasy receivers in 2024. They have a group of aging players who were terrible last year and young talent who may be too inexperienced yet to compete at a high level. The player who you should feel most confident in is Jayden Reed. Reed should play in the slot against one of the two rookies the Eagles drafted. In this game, Reed should be a high-end WR3 and a solid flex option.

The next two receivers are Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Watson is the upside play in this game. I’d rank him as a low-end WR3 with a boom factor. Watson has the speed to win downfield if he lines up against Darius Slay or Keele Ringo. Doubs is the floor play who should see the most snaps in this game. Doubs has his upside capped with Watson. He is a WR5 who could get you six to seven points. Most teams don’t go this deep, but Dontayvion Wicks needs to be mentioned. Wicks is a wild card player who could easily lead the team in yards. His playing time will be crucial to his production. He is likely outside the top 60 this week until we see how this offense performs.

• Game Day Fact: Watson led the Green Bay Packers in targets during the nine games everyone was on the field and healthy last season.

Tight Ends

When the Packers open week one, Luke Musgrave sits at the top of the depth chart, but Tucker Kraft isn’t far off and had a nice fantasy stretch near the end of the season. Musgrave was the clear pass-catching tight end in the offense when both were on the field. The Eagles were an average team against tight end last year. We still need to see when a full, healthy roster is available and how important the tight end position will be in targets. Musgrave flashed big plays last season but is a safe bet as a mid-TE2 to start the year.

• Game Day Fact: Musgrave had a 13.6% target share in the ten games he played.

Dallas Goedert is likely the best tight end on the field in this matchup. Goedert’s target share was 19.1% last year, but his low average depth of target (ADOT) at only 5.4 yards hurt his production. Hopefully, OC Kellen Moore can game-plan Goedert to have more downfield offensive targets. It will be a tough matchup for the receivers, so this should allow Goedert to thrive in Week 1. If Goedert can get a solid target share with more downfield looks, he can still be valued as a mid TE2 for fantasy.

• Game Day Fact: Goedert’s fantasy production has fallen in each of the last four season openers. Last year, he finished with one target.

Thank you for reading! For further fantasy advice, hit me up on X @CoachStevenP or on the Dynasty Nerds Discord! My content is aimed at those in the #NerdHerd wanting easily digestible information to help them win a dynasty championship.