Dynasty Trade Secrets | Understanding Draft Pick Values

Dynasty Trade Secrets

• Dynasty Trade Secrets | Everything You Need to Assess Your Roster
• Dynasty Trade Secrets | Understanding Player Values
• Dynasty Trade Secrets | Understanding Draft Pick Values

Trading is an exciting, strategic aspect in dynasty fantasy football. In dynasty leagues, a fantasy manager’s success often hinges on their ability to trade efficiently. Fantasy managers can fill gaps in their roster, improve weaknesses, and provide depth to their overall squad. Successful trading requires a solid understanding of player values, league trends, and negotiation skills. In this edition of Dynasty Trade Secrets, we will dive Draft Pick Values to help you dominate your league.

Dynasty Trade Secrets

In the first article of the Dynasty Trade Secrets series, we discussed assessing your team roster to determine whether you are a pretender or a contender. We followed that article up by diving into player values. I encourage you to read both articles first as we will be building on these concepts:

STEP 1 | ASSESSING YOUR ROSTER

STEP 2 | UNDERSTANDING PLAYER VALUES

STEP 3 | UNDERSTANDING DRAFT PICK VALUES

We use draft pick value to determine trade value, which is the amount that could be received if they were traded. Draft pick values are constantly changing, and those changes are based on various factors.

When evaluating draft pick value, we must first understand that the value of draft picks will only increase the closer the time comes to your rookie drafts. Using the Nerds App, a 2026 mid-first-round rookie pick is valued at 2,389. In terms of comparison to actual NFL players, that value would be around Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Terry McLaurin.

The value of a draft pick will increase based on the talent in the class, but the value can shift depending on team needs and the perceived talent pool. If you are a pretender, you are looking to build a roster by drafting young, high-upside players. If you are a contender, you might be more willing to trade future picks for current contributors. Draft picks, especially in the later rounds, can be packaged for established players. First-round draft picks carry the most value, but you also must understand that those are not guaranteed to be “hits,” sometimes, trading that pick might be more beneficial to your fantasy team, depending on where you are drafting. Let us dive into the hit rates of rookie selections.

Breakdown | Draft Pick Values

Using draft information from 2018-2023  provided by Garret Price: Garret broke down selections into a “hit,” “mid,” and “miss” rate. A “hit” was defined as a Tier 1 season or multiple Tier 2 or better seasons. A “mid” was defined as a Tier 2 season with a Tier 3 season or multiple Tier 3 seasons. A “miss” was defined as never having multiple Tier 3 seasons or better.

1.01

The 1.01 player selections between 2018 and 2023 include Saquon Barkley, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson. The 1.01 has a high probability for a “hit” or “mid” return and should command a premium in trade value.

1.02 – 1.04

As we can see from the numbers, the percentages began to decrease in this range but not drastically. The players selected in the first 4 selections include Baker Mayfield, Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, Najee Harris, Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London, Kenneth Walker, Garrett Wilson, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, and C.J. Stroud.

1.05 – 1.08

At this point, we can see the “hit” and “mid” rates drop dramatically, while the “miss” rate increases to 58%. This data shows that we need to trade up and obtain a top 4 selection or trade back to acquire multiple assets or proven players.

1.09 – 1.12

Surprisingly, we see an increase in “hit” and “mid” rates, while also seeing a decrease in the “miss” rates. The 2020 draft produced substantial players in this range, including CeeDee Lamb, Justin Herbert, and Justin Jefferson.

2.01 – 2.06

These picks can still land you players with significant upside, though the depth of talent starts to dip here. The “hit” rates drop to 22% while the “miss” rates sky rocket to 69%. Second round picks still hold significant trade value and can often land a valuable contributor to your fantasy roster.

2.07 – 2.12

Late 2nd round picks can be traded for veterans or used to fill specific team needs. While we have seen some recent success in players picked in this range, including Terry McLaurin, Brandon Aiyuk, Jalen Hurts, and Rashee Rice, players selected here might be a bit more speculative, with some being “boom or bust” prospects.

3.01 or Later

In most dynasty formats, 3rd or later round picks hold much lower value while also producing a very low hit rate. These picks are often referred to as dart throws. This is where you begin drafting those players you have a strong conviction on. These picks can also be considered a “throw in” piece to facilitate a trade. Fantasy managers also have the option to package numerous late-round picks to trade back into the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Review | Draft Pick Values

Understanding draft pick values involves timing, roster goals, and a clear long-term vision of your dynasty roster. These key points will help you build a dynasty team that can compete for multiple years. Some of this we’ve already learned, so stay tuned for the rest as we continue the Dynasty Trade Secrets.

Trade Target of the Week | Dynasty Trade Secrets

Parker Washington | WR | Jacksonville Jaguars | Any 3rd round pick

Another player that I have been an advocate in trying to acquire has been Parker Washington. Quietly, Washington had a decent sophomore season with 32 receptions, 390 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns.

Since highlighting him in our 2024 Fantasy Forecast article, Washington’s path for playing time has become clearer. Jacksonville released Evan Engram and traded away Christian Kirk. Jacksonville’s new head coach Liam Coen is an offensive-minded coach and will know how to get the best production out of Washington.

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