It’s official! After months of waiting and waiting, the Packers and the Jets have agreed to a deal that would send Aaron Rodgers to New York.
Aaron Rodgers Value
Rodgers is going to the New York Jets. It isn’t a significant movement in terms of his value overall, especially for dynasty. He is still a 39-year-old quarterback who could retire after the 2023 season. Especially if the Jets’ season does not go how we think it could with Rodgers.
In 2022 Rodgers put up 3,600 yards passing with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with a team similar to the one he will be playing with in New York. He will have a fantastic run game, an upgrade at tight end, and of course, Allen Lazard. The difference is that he will have a refined wide receiver in Garrett Wilson that he might not have had in Christian Watson. On Fantasy Pros fantasy leader points, Rodgers finished QB13 on the season. I believe Rodgers will be somewhat of a borderline QB1 because he has the weapons around him. Let’s be honest; he is Aaron Rodgers.
Unless you’re a contending team, Rodgers is a major sell in dynasty before he touches the field. His name value is significant, and the potential of this Jets offense can be. I’d be looking to move him to a contending team who picks in the back half of rookie drafts to use that to acquire a late first-round pick and maybe a third-round pick or 2024 second-round pick in return in Superflex leagues. This is the opportunity to sell off Rodgers.
If he goes into the season and doesn’t play well, there could be speculation that he could retire, and then you lose all fantasy value on a guy like Rodgers. He’s a good QB2 for Superflex leagues with some upside to his play, but he doesn’t have the mobility. It’s mostly just the passing production that he could offer. I’d look at Rodgers to the Jets as a linear move to his fantasy season, but again, he is still someone I’m selling off in dynasty.
The Jets New Look Offense
Let’s look at the Jets’ offense with a guy like Rodgers at quarterback now. This will significantly help the run game, especially if Breece Hall is healthy and ready for week one. Defenses will have to stay back more because of what Rodgers does to a defense, putting fear into them. We saw Hall play well enough with Mike White and Zach Wilson. He should be in an excellent position with a guy like Rodgers. Let’s not forget that Rodgers no longer has that mobility, so he will dump the ball off in a bad situation.
Over the last four years, Rodgers dumped the ball off plenty to Aaron Jones. We saw Jones have 60-plus targets for four straight seasons. If Hall is ready in week one and can see 60-plus targets, that will make him a top-three back in fantasy football and someone you want for this season. Hall’s long-term value is still attached to his name and not what Rodgers does. We don’t know what Rodgers will do after the 2023 season.
A Huge Uptick for the Receivers
Let’s start with the tight end position first regarding the pass catchers. Over the last few seasons, Rodgers hasn’t used his tight ends to that great extent. We know from years past Rodgers can make a tight-end productive. He had a few good years with Jimmy Graham getting an average of 530 yards and three touchdowns a season. Rodgers also had great success with Jermichael Finley, a big touchdown machine for Aaron Rodgers in the early 2010s.
While Rodgers’s love for tight ends hasn’t always been consistent, he has been able to give them opportunities to be successful for fantasy. I’m assuming that Tyler Conklin will be their tight end for the New York Jets, and he showed us last year that he can produce in fantasy and be a reliable tight end at a time for us. He’s probably a high-end TE2 with some upside, but his long-term dynasty value is capped depending on what Rodgers does in the future.
We all know that Rodgers has trust issues in the wide receiver position, so he will have to make friends in New York. He does trust Allen Lazard and just had his best season in 2022 with 788 yards and six touchdowns. Over the last two seasons, Lazard has combined for 14 receiving touchdowns. So Allen might not have the upside to be a true WR1 or anything, but I think he can be a borderline WR2 to WR3 with a touchdown upside to his game. Everyone wants to know about Wilson and expects him to skyrocket with Rodgers. He did have a great rookie season with Zack Wilson and Co., so the upgrade is here. Wilson can get to that 1,300/1,400-yard receiving range and possibly eight touchdowns in 2023 with Rodgers. Wilson has WR1 upside right now for this coming season.
This might be an excellent time for dynasty to sell off Wilson because of the hype with Rodgers. You may be able to get Chris Olave or Jameson Williams, plus a bunch more for Wilson. Once the season starts, I think Wilson might get to a slow start, and you can buy back and get Wilson at a cheaper price. We saw it last year with Watson, where it took him some time to get on a rapport with Rodgers to be trusted enough.
While Wilson isn’t a rookie anymore, he is still a young player learning to be an elite player. It could take time for him and Rodgers to build that trust level. I’m not saying you have to sell Wilson now, but if you want a good value in return for him, this is the time to do it before the draft and the season kick-off. You might sometimes get some boom weeks from Mecole Hardman and maybe a floor-play WR5 from Corey Davis.
Jordan Love Time
It’s finally Love time. As we know, Green Bay has a great history with quarterbacks, having only used two quarterbacks over the last 30 years. Love has big shoes to fill, but can he do it? Love was scouted as a very mobile big-arm passer. He did have his issues with accuracy and decision-making and took a step back in production in his final year at college. He has gotten to sit behind Rodgers the last few years, so I’m hoping he developed and learned from Rodgers how to be an efficient quarterback. Love had a minimal opportunity in 2022 but looks suitable for what he could show us in limited action.
Unlike most young quarterbacks, Love has a good head coach and skilled positions around him. Rodgers’s first season as a starter wasn’t a good year. The Packers went 6-10. He threw for 4,000 yards and had 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. So if Love can do something similar, that’s a decent year and good progression for a guy who hasn’t played in the NFL much.
Love will have a strong run game with two dynamic running backs. He’ll have two young talented receivers in Watson and Romeo Doubs. Rumors are that the Packers could go receiver and tight end in the early draft rounds for once. Love is a good sleeper guy right now to acquire. He might come at a higher price, but I believe the talent is enough that Love can overcome his issues. People will tell you to sell right now, but the risk is too high. I’d instead take the shot on the young kid to do well in a good offense. Love’s value is probably similar to what Rodgers is right now, and it’s a late first-round pick either acquiring or selling right now.
A Love Ran Offense
The rest of the offense is a downgrade from Rodgers to Love. The Packers will likely become more run-heavy, allowing Jones and AJ Dillion to be borderline RB2 with the heavy usage. It’s essential to hold these players until the season. Both of their values take a hit with Rodgers leaving, but if they can produce in-season, that’s where you want to sell off. I expect the Packers starting tight end to be a rookie that will have little value. It also depends on which tight end is drafted by the Packers.
Love’s big-time arm power will keep Watson afloat in fantasy. Watson’s second-half breakout was already a boom/bust situation, so he should be a lower-end WR2 moving forward. I am looking to acquire him for a late first because he is better than the receivers you’ll get in that range. Doubs is probably a borderline WR4 to buy low to see if he can improve his development.
Rodgers and the Jets should be a magical fantasy place for us in 2023. The future looks cloudy due to Rodgers’ future. Love with the Packers is an interesting situation, but there are many risks with him and the offense.
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