By Theo Gremminger
Buys
Isaiah Pacheco RB Kansas City
Pacheco finished as RB15 last season and could be in store for more in 2024. He avoided any backfield competition during Free Agency and The NFL Draft. The Chiefs look poised to move on from Jerick McKinnon officially, and Pacheco’s role as a receiver could grow after a considerable year-two leap in production. Kansas City added speed and playmaking ability at the WR position, and the offense should be more explosive and efficient. Isiah Pacheco will see more action inside of the red zone.
Dynasty managers have not adjusted to Pacheco’s potential 2024 role, and he can be acquired for reasonable offers. He has top 5 running back potential this season.
Jaylen Warren RB Pittsburgh
Jaylen Warren took significant strides forward last season, finishing with 1000+ combined yards and an RB22 overall finish. He overtook former first-round pick Najee Harris (RB23) in production. This offseason, Pittsburgh chose not to pick up Harris’ fifth-year option, and the Warren backfield takeover should continue. Harris’ presence is viewed as an annoyance by many in fantasy, but as dynasty managers, we should view it as a positive: it keeps Warren’s price affordable.
New Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith has an incredible fantasy RB production track record. Smith is best known for his work in Tennessee with Derrick Henry, but he also oversaw Cordarrelle Patterson’s RB1 season and Tyler Allgeier’s 1000-yard rookie year. He gets the most out of RBs, and he should continue to do so with the dynamic Warren. Pittsburgh also drafted offensive linemen in Rounds One and Two (Amarius Mims and Zack Frazier), providing further support for the Pittsburgh running game. Warren is an excellent dynasty buy at cost with a solid floor and an exciting ceiling.
Terry McLaurin WR Washington
McLaurin has been a model of consistency throughout his NFL career, with four seasons with at least 77 catches and 1002 receiving yards. Terry McLaurin has not had that one particular season that fantasy managers can point to and say, “Look what he did that year.” 2024 could be the breakthrough and McLaurin’s first WR1 finish. Dynamic rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels could open things up for the entire offense, and McLaurin could be the big beneficiary. McLaurin could see a similar boost with Daniels that DJ Moore had with Justin Fields last season in Chicago.
At nearly 29 years old, Terry McLaurin is at an age apex discount. While he is getting older, he has been one of fantasy’s true ironmen at the position, with three straight seasons of 17 games played. Daniels extends McLaurin’s shelf life, and he has a two-year window for contenders.
Jared Goff QB Detroit
Dynasty managers rarely have trade access to significant contributors in some of the league’s top offenses. A rare exception is Jared Goff. Last season’s QB8 overall, Goff is currently valued as QB19 on Keep Trade Cut. This year could be even better for Detroit, and Goff’s numbers could improve. Amon-Ra St. Brown is an alpha target hog at wide receiver, but last season, Detroit relied on two rookies (Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta) and a second-year wide receiver (Jameson Williams). Those players should take steps forward with NFL experience under their belts.
Goff’s trade value is not brought down by age (he is only 29.5 years old) but rather by long-term stability at his position. But with every win and playoff appearance, Goff boxes himself out from potential replacements in the NFL Draft. It is hard to imagine Detroit moving on from in 2025.
Sells
Javonte Williams RB Denver
The excellent news: Williams bounced back from a lost 2022 season and played 16 games in 2023. The bad news: Williams averaged a career-low 3.6 yards per carry. His 47 receptions elevated his production, but he only managed to finish as RB31 in running back PPG. Denver did not select a running back on day two but did bring in a real threat to cut into Williams’ workload in Audric Estime. Estime finished 2023 with the most rushing touchdowns in a single season in Notre Dame history with 18 while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. Denver also doubled down at the RB spot with undrafted free agent Blake Watson. While draft capital snobs may discount these two players, Denver is showing they want to bring in new blood at the RB spot.
Javonte Williams still has dynasty managers who view him as a potential bounceback candidate and will point to him having a healthy offseason to return on his early career promise. Use this as a window to sell. The Broncos offense will take a step back this season, and Williams Keep Trade Cut’s rating of RB20 is exceedingly high.
DJ Moore WR Chicago
Recommending DJ Moore as a dynasty sell is tough to see for many dynasty managers, and it could make me look foolish down the line. But dynasty is about identifying value peaks and buying and selling windows. For Moore, his magical WR6 overall season of 2023 could be viewed as his fantasy peak. Caleb Williams is viewed by most as a quarterback upgrade, but while the quality of the Chicago passing game should increase, the target competition also has it.
Last year, Moore’s main competition for targets was tight end Cole Kmet. This year? It is a murderer’s row. No franchise added more firepower at receiver this offseason, as Chicago traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze with the 9th overall pick. They also signed D’Andre Swift. The Odunze selection is especially problematic because, with his draft capital and profile, he should continue to gain dynasty value throughout his rookie season. Someone in your league is going to pay for Moore’s 2023 finish. Find that manager and pivot.
Deebo Samuel WR San Francisco
Deebo Samuel has been one of Fantasy Football’s ultimate warriors and a top-level producer. There is nothing like seeing Samuel bounce off of would-be tacklers and earn every yard on a big play or score a dynamic, timely touchdown at a critical moment. But as fun of a ride, as it has been for Samuel’s dynasty managers, there are several indicators selling him coming off of a WR12 overall finish (PPR PPG) is the correct move.
Target volume has never been Samuel’s game, and he has only had one season with more than 100 targets. He has only managed to post 184 targets in the past two seasons alone. The dynamic ability to take over games has been there, but it is difficult to bet on this profile as a player ages. At 28 years old, Samuel is facing down Father Time and an unsustainable production model. There are also concerns about his long-term future in San Francisco, as there are multiple trade rumors. The 49ers selection of Ricky Pearsall in the first round felt like the selection of a replacement rather than adding to a receiver room.
