Hey Nerds! As the 2024 NFL season approaches, every team in the AFC is facing a unique set of challenges and uncertainties that will impact their fantasy success. In this article, I will dive into each team’s burning question going into the 2024 season!
AFC EAST
BUFFALO BILLS
“Who will take over with the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis?”
Outside of the Los Angeles Chargers, no team has suffered more vacated targets than the Buffalo Bills. Over 58 percent of last year’s targets are gone with the trading of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis‘ signing in Jacksonville. This is going to be a collective effort between rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dalton Kincaid, and Khalil Shakir, but I believe Kincaid will lead the team in receptions.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
“Who is the running back to own?”
This is a backfield that you want to have shares of, as Miami tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns in 2023 (27). To address this question, you must first look at your dynasty roster. Raheem Mostert is the running back to own this year if you are a championship contender. While I do not see him scoring another league-leading 18 touchdowns on the ground, he appears to be the lead back.
However, Mostert is 32 years old and has a history of missing games due to injury, which is where De’Von Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright step in. Achane is one of the fastest players in the NFL and a home run threat when the ball is in his hands. The concern is his durability. At 5’9”, 188 lbs, Achane is not built to take a higher workload. Wright appears to be the heir apparent to the Mostert role.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
“Who is the rookie wide receiver to own?”
When you read camp reports, both Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker seem to be impressing the coaching staff, as both have had very strong camps. Polk has the edge in draft capital after being selected in the second round of the draft compared to Baker’s fourth-round selection.
But for me, why not roster both? Clearly, the New England Patriots weren’t happy with their previous receiving corps after Demario Douglas led the team in receiving yards (561). I could see both stepping in and outproducing those numbers in 2024. This situation seems very similar to Green Bay last year with Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks.
NEW YORK JETS
“What level of play can we expect from Aaron Rodgers?“
Aaron Rodgers‘ Jets career has consisted of four NFL snaps. Due to last season’s torn Achilles injury, we have not yet seen what the 40-year-old Rodgers’ time in New York looks like.
The Jets spent the offseason revamping their offensive line by adding two top-10 graded tackles (according to Pro Football Focus) in Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. Protecting Rodgers is pivotal for the Packers’ success. Rodgers is still capable of producing top-12 quarterback numbers; he was a “QB1” in 5 of his last 6 full NFL seasons. I expect Rodgers to come back healthy, flirt with QB1 numbers on a weekly basis, and heavily target third-year player Garrett Wilson.
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE RAVENS
“Can 30-year-old Derrick Henry continue to produce top-12 running back numbers?”
Baltimore made a major splash in free agency with the signing of Derrick Henry. “King Henry” joins Baltimore after an 8-year career in Tennessee with over 2,000 carries on his body. No NFL team rushed the ball more than Baltimore in 2023 (541 attempts), and I don’t see that changing with Henry in the mix. I can foresee another top-12 season—possibly leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
“Will Joe Burrow be healthy in 2024?“
The 2023 NFL season was not what Joe Burrow envisioned. A calf strain in training camp caused a rough start to his season, where he threw only seven touchdowns in the first six games. Burrow appeared back on track before a Week 11 wrist injury ultimately ended his season. Before his injury, Burrow was on pace for more than 600 attempts last season and should reach that volume again this year to sustain his fantasy value. All signs indicate that Burrow should be healthy for the season, and I see Burrow returning to the QB1 tier.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
“Does Jerry Jeudy finally break out?“
After his highly successful college career at Alabama, the Denver Broncos selected Jerry Jeudy in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Jeudy failed to live up to the hype, finishing WR47, WR85, WR22, and WR50 overall and failing to produce a 1,000-yard season in his career.
Jeudy was traded to the Cleveland Browns, but unfortunately, I don’t see the change of scenery benefiting Jeudy. Jeudy is dealing with a knee injury during training camp, which is limiting his time with the new offense. Currently ranked as WR54 on Dynasty Nerds, I view his value as a WR5 to be accurate.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
“Who is the quarterback to roster?“
Former starting quarterback Kenny Pickett is Jalen Hurts‘ backup in Philadelphia. The Pittsburgh Steelers spent their offseason signing Russell Wilson and trading for Justin Fields. Wilson has never finished below QB16 overall during his 12 NFL seasons. In fact, Wilson still finished as the QB14 in 2023 despite sitting the final two games of the season. Fields has tremendous fantasy upside, but until he shows he can protect the football (41 turnovers in 40 games played), he will likely remain the backup option.
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON TEXANS
“Who is the receiver to roster?”
Houston has an embarrassment of riches at the wide receiver position with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and the newly acquired Stefon Diggs. Only four times in NFL history has a trio of wide receivers surpassed 1,000 yards individually, with the last occurrence happening in 2008. Houston definitely has a chance to make it five times this year.
Diggs will be turning 31 during the season and Father Time eventually catches up to everyone. Dell’s size at 5’8”, 165 lbs. is also an area of concern for possible future injuries, leaving Collins to be the alpha receiver in the room.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
“What can we expect from Anthony Richardson?”
In 2023, we experienced a small taste of Anthony Richardson. “AR” was limited to four games while exiting early in two of the games due to injury. In his two full games played, he finished as QB4 and QB2 on the week. When Richardson was on the field, he was first among quarterbacks in rushing attempts per game and third in rushing yards per game. Any worries on whether head coach Shane Steichen will limit his rushing should be put to rest also when he was on record saying, “Would you limit Steph Curry from shooting threes?”
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
“Is this going to be Trevor Lawrence’s breakout season?”
Deemed a generational talent by several in the football space, Trevor Lawrence has yet to show the dominance that is expected from his game. Lawrence’s best fantasy season was 2022, when he finished as the QB8 overall. He played through injuries in 2023, which ultimately may have been detrimental to the team. Lawrence missed his first career start, and after returning from injury, he threw 7 of his 14 interceptions in the team’s final 4 games.
The time is now for Lawrence after Jacksonville added Gabe Davis through free agency and drafted rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. to play alongside Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Travis Etienne. Lawrence has no excuses to not jump into that top-5 range of quarterback.
TENNESSEE TITANS
“Is Will Levis the answer?”
Will Levis burst onto the scene in 2023, throwing for 238 yards and 4 TDs in his first game (QB6 on the week). Fantasy managers were very optimistic about Levis, but unfortunately, that would be his best game for the rest of the season.
Over the next eight games, Levis finished QB21, QB26, QB20, QB31, QB17, QB15, QB18, and QB40 (he left early with an injury). Tennessee did add free agents Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to help boost their offense. However, I don’t see the long-term future of Levis with the Titans as very bright, and I expect them to draft his replacement by the 2025 NFL Draft.
AFC WEST
DENVER BRONCOS
“What does the Broncos offense look like in 2024?“
With competition at several offensive positions, what should we expect the Broncos’ starting offense to look like? At the quarterback position, Bo Nix has had a very impressive training camp and has been praised by Coach Sean Payton for his composure in the pocket, understanding of the playbook, and release.
While early camp reports spell the demise of Javonte Williams, the running back is now fully recovered from his ACL injury and appears to be ready to tackle the lead role. Denver led all NFL teams in running back targets in 2023, which is a common occurrence with Sean Payton offenses. The wide receiver position appears to be a four-man collection featuring Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, Josh Reynolds, and rookie Troy Franklin.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
“Who is the top fantasy wide receiver in Kansas City?”
With a cluster of Chiefs receivers being drafted together, who is the one to roster? First off, Hollywood Brown was going the highest at WR36. Brown comes over as a free agent from Baltimore but is currently dealing with a shoulder injury. Two spots later at WR38 is first-round rookie Xavier Worthy. Rashee Rice comes in at WR39, and I feel that is due to the reports of a looming suspension.
All three receivers offer uniqueness to their game, making any of the three possible for a weekly explosion. All three receivers are great additions to your team, but Rice offers the best value of the bunch, given his ADP. During the first half of the season, Rice ran routes on 45 percent of Chiefs’ passing plays through Week 11. From Week 12 on, he ran routes over 79 percent. Even with those drastic changes in route percentage, Rice still finished overall as WR27.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
“Who is the quarterback to own this season?”
The training camp battle between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell is a hot topic in Las Vegas. “AOC” and Minshew have split snaps with the starters, so it appears both will get an equal opportunity for the job.
In 2023, Minshew averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game for the Colts, while O’Connell averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game after taking over for the benched Jimmy Garoppolo. Minshew offers some fantasy value with his legs, as AOC is more of a statue in the pocket. While neither are the long-term answers in Las Vegas, Minshew appears to offer more upside.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
“What can we expect from Justin Herbert?“
Justin Herbert’s 2024 season hasn’t started off to the best start with a plantar fascia injury in his right foot that has him in a walking boot. Herbert’s fantasy production was already a hot topic due to new Head Coach Jim Harbaugh’s propensity to run the football and 64 percent of the teams’ targets being vacated (which led the NFL). I view the changes in coaching, a new offensive philosophy, and a change in receiving weapons as successful deterrents to Herbert achieving a top-8 quarterback finish.
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