Dynasty fantasy football is a year-round affair. A sharp manager will be thinking about all aspects of the dynasty season. Those managers keen enough to look ahead will be the ones who can grab themselves an edge over the competition. Most of the dynasty off-season will be spent discussing incoming rookies and the related topic, the NFL draft. It is easy for us to fall in love with the next workhorse running back or prototypical alpha wide receiver, but a manager in tune with the entire draft class will find themselves ahead of the game. Whether it is the next road-paving interior offensive lineman or genetic freak edge rusher, we can find ourselves at quite the advantage come April by building an entire picture of how the 2024 class will play out. Those who prepare ahead will not be often surprised at the outcomes.
Credit for the mock draft simulation goes to ProFootballFocus. Team needs are also generated from this site.
2023 Season Recap
Regarding the Green Bay Packers’ 2023 season, I need to first give myself a little pat on the back.
Yes, I may have picked the Chargers to win the AFC West, but you know what? At least I was right about Jordan Love! The breakout quarterback bided his time in the shadow of Aaron Rodgers, but Love shined when he was handed the reins. Despite a slow start, the Packers finished with a 9-8 record, which was good enough for second place in the NFC North. The Packers entered the postseason as the NFC’s seventh seed.
After qualifying for the playoffs, Love and his Packers upset the second-seed Dallas Cowboys in the wild-card round. Next week, they gave the top seed and eventual NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers all they could handle, eventually losing 24-21. To the surprise of many, the Packers led in that game 21-18 heading into the fourth quarter. A missed field goal in the fourth quarter doomed the Packers; the rest is history.
After the trade of Aaron Rodgers, and in a season where little was expected of them, the Packers young roster spent most of the season playing as underdogs. How will they handle the pressure in 2024 now that they won’t be sneaking up on anybody?
2024 Free Agent Departures – Offense
Interestingly, now that we are well into the new league year, the notable departure of Aaron Jones is offset by the more notable addition of Josh Jacobs. While most everyone expected Jones to be the running back to re-sign with the team, AJ Dillon was re-signed instead.
However, not all is well in the Land of the Cheeseheads. Jon Runyan Jr, a mainstay on the Packers’ offensive line, signed with the Giants. The Packers released long-time left tackle David Bakhtiari. Although they do have younger players waiting in the wings, such as 2022 third-round pick Sean Rhyan, it remains to be seen how these losses may impact their emerging offense. At the same time, the Packers were able to re-sign exclusive rights free agent Caleb Jones, an undrafted free agent in 2022, their losses on the offensive line factor heavily into my mock draft below.
2024 Free Agent Departures – Defense
Shortly after the Packers made waves by signing Jacobs, the Packers made another free-agent splash by signing Xavier McKinney. The superstar safety will replace former Packers’ first-round pick Darnell Savage and should provide a needed upgrade in the secondary.
The rest of the Packer free agents are backups, primarily special team players. Keisean Nixon may be the best of the bunch as a key special teamer who has made first-team All-Pro in consecutive seasons. He will likely re-sign with the team. Linebacker Kristian Welch, as are corners Corey Ballentine and Robert Rochell, is a free agent. While fine players, none are crucial to the Packers’ success in 2024. Given the relative youth of their roster and healthy salary cap situation, the Packers have a chance to make a push in the NFC over the next few seasons.
2024 Mock Draft
1.25 Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma
Guyton primarily played right tackle, although he spent time working at left tackle at the Senior Bowl. He is the perfect physical specimen for this young offense to develop into a starter slowly. PFF notes that Guyton did not give up a single sack on 355 pass block snaps last season. Do you think Jordan Love likes hearing that?
2.41 Tyler Nubin, S Minnesota
Nubin is the Golden Gophers’ all-time leader in interceptions at 13. He is a playmaker. In a division that features some of the best receivers in the NFL (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, and now Keenan Allen), the Packers are going to need every playmaker they can in the secondary. When targeted last season as a fifth-year senior, he was graded as allowing only a 17.5 quarterback rating.
Nubin does not have elite speed but makes up for it with good instincts. He has excellent closing speed and excels as a free safety in the passing game. However, he isn’t afraid to mix it up in the run game. Additionally, Nubin is excellent when playing close to the line of scrimmage. He can match up well with this division’s tight ends like Cole Kmet, Sam LaPorta, and T.J. Hockenson.
2.58 Ja’Lynn Polk, WR Washington
Polk is the perfect complement to Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed. While he does not have the best burst or long speed, Polk has great hands and body control, similar to a player who graduated from the same high school, Dez Bryant. He is a physical receiver who plays well through contact and is an asset in running blocking. Polk can line up all over the field, giving Jordan Love another weapon to use.
3.88 Mason McCormick, G South Dakota State
McCormick is one of my favorite players in this draft class. A South Dakota State Jackrabbit, McCormick impressed at the Shrine Game and delivered at the NFL Combine. With a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 9.96, McCormick enters the draft rated seventh of the over 1,400 guards measured since 1987. Wow!
The Packers could use help on the interior of their offensive line, and pairing a run mauler like McCormick here with the earlier selection of Guyton would go a long way. McCormick logged 57 career starts for the Jackrabbits at left guard. He did not give up a single sack this past season, allowing just two pressures on the year. Notably, the Packers are familiar with the SDSU program, drafting McCormick’s close friend Tucker Kraft in the third round last season. Could history repeat itself?
3.91 Michael Hall, Jr., IDL Ohio State
The biggest question surrounding Hall is whether he can overcome being the dreaded “tweener”—too small to play tackle but not long enough to play defensive end. Hall displays explosiveness and quickness coming off the ball, but will it be enough to come off the blocks of larger linemen in the NFL?
4.126 Braelon Allen, RB Wisconsin
In the fourth round, let’s have Braelon Allen take his talents on a quick trip from Madison to Green Bay.
I can imagine there would be more than a few dynasty people who would be upset if the Packers were to select Allen here—Jacobs and AJ Dillon stonewall Allen’s chances of being relevant as a rookie. However, Dillon is only on a one-year contract, and the Packers could draft Allen, a similar player, as his eventual replacement in 2025. Again, without many holes on their roster, the Packers can use this draft to backfill some future holes.
Allen himself went from a devy superstar to a plummeting dynasty asset. Was it the scheme change at Wisconsin that caused him to fall off? Was it merely Allen trying to stay healthy for his chance at the NFL? His junior campaign this season was fine but not nearly what was expected of him. His freshman and sophomore seasons were phenomenal. Allen is worth a shot early on day three of the NFL Draft.
5.168 Dwight McGlothern, CB Arkansas
Everyone has an opinion on PFF grades, but regardless of how you feel, I think it is worth mentioning that they graded McGlothern a 91.3 last season. That is the best score amongst Power 5 cornerbacks in 2023. The only corner that PFF graded higher was Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, a player projected to be drafted in the first round.
McGlothern is a tall, physical corner who will likely outperform this draft position. He is a skilled corner and could, at the very least, become a core special teamer. Another player who struggled with injury, McGlothern’s talents are worth the risk for the Packers here in round five.
6.202 Zion Logue, DI Georgia
Championship programs create championship talent. In 14 games last season for the Bulldogs, Logue recorded 17 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and 0.5 sacks. Not exactly eye-popping numbers. However, several scouts and NFL draftniks believe Logue was underutilized at Georgia. He is a high-character young man from all accounts, and at 6’5″ 310 lbs., he seems to be a talent worth developing.
6.219 Jalen Green, EDGE James Madison
Now, this is a guy. Jalen Green is another of my favorite players in this class. What’s not to like?
2023 College Football Network National Player of the Year. National Defensive Player of the Year and National Defensive Lineman of the Year. Second Team All-America honors from the American Football Coaches Association, ESPN, and Sporting News. First Team All-America honors from the Associated Press and Action Network. Second Team All-American by the Football Writers Association of America. The accolades go on and on for Green.
Last season, Green led the nation with 1.72 sacks per game and 2.3 tackles for loss per game. He led the nation in sacks despite missing the season’s final four games due to injury. So, why is he still available this late? College accolades do not get a player drafted. Sadly, the late-season knee injury did not help the cause, either. Green is also just 6’1″, 245 lbs., and lacks NFL-level athleticism. If a team drafts him late, they’re banking on him becoming a tenacious, high-motor situational pass rusher, a la the undrafted Bryce Huff coming out of Memphis.
7.245 Josiah Ezirim, T Eastern Kentucky
I watch college football and dive even more deeply into players during the draft season. That said, I can’t know them all, and if I’m honest, I do not know much about Ezirim coming out of Eastern Kentucky. I first noticed him during the recent coverage of the NFL Combine. Ezirim scored decently well for a lineman coming out of an FCS school. Moreover, PFF graded him an 84.7, crediting him with zero sacks or even a single hit on the quarterback last season. That’s impressive, no matter what level or team you play for. Let’s give the Packers another player who they can take time developing on their practice squad here in the final round of our mock.
7.255 Taulia Tagovailoa, QB Maryland
The final choice in my Packers team mock draft is Maryland’s Tagovailoa. He declared for this year’s draft after being denied an additional year of eligibility by the NCAA. Starting his career at Alabama, Taulia became the Big Ten’s all-time passing leader with 11,256 yards. He played well at this year’s Shrine Bowl but has too many red flags for teams to place strong bets on him.
Tagovailoa is an accurate passer on short and intermediate routes but has an average arm at best. At only 5’10”, he is undersized for the NFL game and will be a 24-year-old rookie. Tagovailoa will likely be nothing more than a training camp arm, but he could be a valuable addition to a team’s practice squad.
2024 Fantasy Impact
Yes, Jordan Love’s breakout was the engine that made the Packers go last year. The gas to keep it going, though, was their offensive line. The Packers finished fourth in sack percentage and ninth in rushing average, one of only four teams in the top 10 of both stats. Their continued success relies on the strength of their line. Therefore, while it may not seem directly fantasy-relevant, getting linemen like Guyton and McCormick would do nothing but help the offense keep firing on all cylinders.
As for Polk, he may be one of those players destined to be better for an NFL team than for your dynasty squad. I would not draft him before the early third round of your Superflex rookie draft.
That leaves Allen. What to do about Allen? As you may have heard on the pod, Rich and the rest of the crew are not very high on Allen. Chances are, no matter where he is taken in the NFL draft, he will be overdrafted in rookie drafts due to the known name factor.
In the end, this is still an offense I believe you want a piece of going forward. If the Packers draft a skill position player with their early pick, it is someone you should immediately put on your radar.
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