Since Keenan Allen had two injury-plagued years in 2015 and 2016, the Chargers’ wide receiver has been dominant. He’s finished as a Pro Bowler every year and as a WR1 in fantasy football. The wideout is now 30 years old but isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. With a terrific cast of skill players around him, could Allen put up another 1,100+ yard, 100+reception season once again? If he can, it would be the fourth year in a row and the fifth out of six years. Last year, Allen finished as the WR11 on the season.
2021 Season Review
Allen had another strong season last year as the WR1 of the Chargers. He led the team in targets, receptions, and multiple other categories. It’s clear that he’s Justin Herbert’s favorite target. Still in the middle of his prime, Allen had 106 catches on 157 targets for 1,138 yards and six touchdowns. He averaged 10.7 yards per catch while averaging over six catches a game. He only played in 16 games. These are truly fantastic numbers. On a per-game basis in PPR, he averaged 16.1 points. Another dominant season for a top NFL wide receiver.
2022 Season Projections
Allen is playing in his tenth NFL season. No doubt that the wear and tear will start to affect him as he gets into his 30s. He’s going to be playing all of this season at 30 years old. Allen should still have a strong season serving as the WR1 for the dominant Chargers’ offense. I would expect the downturn to come next year, though he might lose a few yards this year. The targets will continue to be there as he’s Herbert’s favorite target.
I still have Allen getting over 100 receptions and 1,000 yards this year. He narrowly misses out on 1,100 yards but will continue to be the focus of their offense. This will equate to 15.7 ppg in a PPR scoring system. That’s good enough to be a late-WR1 like in 2021. Mike Williams will push Allen for the Chargers’ top WR spot. A few targets were taken from Allen due to Josh Palmer’s rise in the Chargers’ offense. Regardless, Allen is still a top WR in the NFL.
Buy/Sell Keenan Allen?
Allen’s age tremendously affects his dynasty value. I would only keep him on my team if I’m pushing for the championship. I’m trading him if I’m trying to make the playoffs or wanting to get younger. Allen is still worth a late-first and a late-second or so. I’ll take that if I know my team won’t likely win this year. Allen could get hurt again, and if he does, his price will tank like Julio Jones.
Allen is still a terrific WR who can win you weeks. However, he’s best suited to be a contending team’s WR2 rather than a WR1. I think he has two more elite years left before the steep decline occurs. Just don’t wait too long. If you really want Allen on your team to win this year, try offering an early second and another second. Or offer just a late-first. Don’t overpay unless you’re positive this will put you over the top for the ring.
Summary
Allen is a top WR despite his age. He will cross the 100-catch more and get you more than 15 PPR points on average. He’s the leading wide receiver on a potent offense which is always good to have in a dynasty. However, be cautious about his age. The mileage will catch up to Allen sooner than later. Just don’t get stuck holding on to a deflating asset like many were with Julio Jones. If you’re not pushing all-in this year, sell him. Don’t hold onto him, as injury could strike at any time. Regardless, expect another great season from Allen.
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As always, May the Force be with You…
