Hello, valued #NerdHerd member, and welcome to some exclusive content crafted just for you! Today, we will review some screaming values to exploit in existing and startup dynasty leagues.
Everyone loves the sexy names that come with all of the sizzle and hype. But often, it’s fantasy owners who can uncover the castoffs and hidden gems that have the greatest success. By comparing the published Dynasty Nerds Rankings with the current dynasty ADP on Sleeper, I have unearthed a trio of discount players with massive potential.
So swim caps on, Herd, because we are about to dive in!
JK Dobbins
Dynasty Nerds Superflex Rank: 49
Sleeper 2QB Dynasty ADP Rank: 72
Delta: 23
Reason for Discount:
Dobbins suffered a horrendous leg injury in August of 2021, tearing his ACL, LCL, meniscus, and hamstring. The road to recovery has been understandably long and winding. After more than a year of grueling rehabilitation, Dobbins finally returned to action in Week 3 of the 2022 season but lasted only four weeks before the knee injury flared again. At that time, an arthroscopic tune-up was prescribed, further sidelining Dobbins for an additional month and a half.
Dobbins ultimately resurfaced for four weeks to close out the season and finally started to show some real promise, rushing for an impressive 99.3 yards per game over that stint. However, general concern about Dobbins’ health looms large with fantasy players who may recall only the significance of the original injury or Dobbins’ checkered availability in 2022.
#Ravens RB JK Dobbins said this week that the knee injury he suffered was far more severe than people know: He tore his ACL, LCL, meniscus and hamstring.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 18, 2022
Baltimore likely doing the smart thing by taking the cautious approach. https://t.co/324bUBZECs
Reason for Optimism:
One of the primary considerations for dynasty value is always age. Despite all of the injury turmoil that Dobbins has faced, he still enters the 2023 season at the youthful age of 24. He has a lot of football left to play and is poised as a massive contributor to a dynamic Baltimore offense. The Ravens retooled this offseason but did not bring in any major backfield competition, leaving 28-year-old Gus Edwards as the only real threat for carries.
Why @DynastyRich thinks that JK Dobbins could finish as a top 6 RB this season.
— Dynasty Nerds (@DynastyNerds) May 23, 2023
Watch Now: https://t.co/egl0qvl7ZK pic.twitter.com/mHaumv7Acn
Bottom Line:
Averaging nearly six yards per carry over his short NFL career, it’s reasonable to suspect that Dobbins could soon entrench himself as a perennial RB1, given good health and a strong workload. He is currently being drafted 23 spots below his Dynasty Nerds Superflex ranking of 49th overall. The opportunity to snag a player of this caliber nearly two full rounds below his predicted worth is a screaming value that you should look to take advantage of immediately before camp hype inflates Dobbins’ value later this summer.
Russell Wilson
Dynasty Nerds Superflex Rank: 52
Sleeper 2QB Dynasty ADP Rank: 85
Delta: 33
Reason for Discount:
Russell Wilson’s Denver debut was an unmitigated disaster, and the stats bear out this Mile High meltdown. For the season, a lowly 16 passing touchdowns and a 60.5% completion percentage both marked career lows for the decorated 11-year NFL veteran. Now dismissed head coach Nathaniel Hackett could never get Wilson on solid footing, and subsequently, the Broncos went down in flames. Wilson may have cooked, but the meal was inedible.
Russell Wilson on his 2022 season:
— Aric DiLalla (@AricDiLalla) January 9, 2023
"I feel like I fell short of my own standards and my own level of expectations."
Wilson said he wants to recapture playing to his standard, and said he may have found that over the last couple of weeks.
Reason for Optimism:
Wilson is a nine-time Pro Bowl selection and a former Super Bowl champion. Over a decade in Seattle, he dominated the competition averaging 3,706 yards passing, 337 completions, and 29 touchdowns per year. His resume strongly suggests that the 2023 season was more of an anomaly than the new norm.
Additionally, Denver has landed the crown jewel of 2023 head coaching candidates by hiring former Saint skipper Sean Payton. With a career-winning percentage of 63.1%, nine playoff appearances, and a Lombardi Trophy of his own, Payton certainly has the pedigree to fix Wilson and turn the tide in the Mile High City.
Hearing from Russell Wilson for the first time this offseason.
— Phil Milani (@philmilani) May 25, 2023
Said he’s excited about the Broncos’ O-line additions.
Called HC Sean Payton one of the best teachers as they install a new offense. pic.twitter.com/YeiEcssXR8
Bottom Line:
Granted, 2022 was not pretty. And many of Wilson’s struggles were prominently displayed in some abysmal primetime performances that left lasting, concerning impressions for fantasy fans. That said, an eighth-round Superflex ADP for a player of Wilson’s ability is downright criminal. Talented skill-position players surround Wilson, and he now has the backing of an experienced head coach in a strong football town. Wilson is currently ranked nearly three rounds higher than his average draft position at Dynasty Nerds. I think the value speaks for itself here. NerdHerd, let’s ride!
Mike Evans
Dynasty Nerds Superflex Rank: 89
Sleeper 2QB Dynasty ADP Rank: 117
Delta: 28
Reason for Discount:
Ironic, but one of the game’s greats, Tom Brady, is single-handedly responsible for both Evans’ highest peak and lowest valley regarding value. When Brady set sail from New England in 2020, his arrival in Tampa caused an explosion of value for skill position players like Evans. However, when the G.O.A.T. finally retired (we think?) earlier this offseason and was replaced by an uninspired tandem of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, offensive values understandably plummeted.
With Evans on the verge of turning 30 years old and surrounded by lackluster quarterback play, dynasty players have soured this once-respected receiver.
A miserable QB situation + Father Time = hall-of-fame WR Mike Evans finally starting to ride off into the sunset in 2023
— RosterWatch (@RosterWatch) May 27, 2023
Reason for Optimism:
Since entering the league in 2014, Evans has been the model of consistency on an annualized basis. Despite starting his career working first with a journeyman, Josh McCown, and then a very green Jameis Winston, Evans has NEVER failed to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark in any season of his nine-year career. In fact, he has averaged over 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns per year.
To put it simply, Evans has been a stalwart. He generally stays healthy (never starting fewer than 13 games in a season), and regardless of Tampa’s competitiveness, he always finds a way to produce.
Mike Evans has had 9 seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards.
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) May 24, 2023
🏴☠️ 2022: 1,124 yds
🏴☠️ 2021: 1,035 yds
🏴☠️ 2020: 1,006 yds
🏴☠️ 2019: 1,157 yds
🏴☠️ 2018: 1,524 yds
🏴☠️ 2017: 1,001 yds
🏴☠️ 2016: 1,321 yds
🏴☠️ 2015: 1,206 yds
🏴☠️ 2014: 1,051 yds
The only WR with a longer streak: Jerry Rice 🤯 pic.twitter.com/0Vr6IiOnd1
Bottom Line:
Evans lacks the zeal of some more youthful names. He is aging, recently waved goodbye to a future Hall of Fame QB, and is now mired on a team that seems destined to struggle in 2023. And yet, despite all the negatives, Evans has been so consistent that it seems foolish to doubt that he can once again deliver. Sure, banking on the past in fantasy can be a big mistake. But with Evans at his current price point, even an average performance would represent tremendous value. Take advantage of folks chasing the next great hype, and quietly stash Evans on your contending roster. At more than a two-round discount compared to his Dynasty Nerds ranking, he’s precisely the type of player to carry you to a championship.
Conclusion
The late spring/early summer time period can sometimes represent a lull for dynasty activity. But don’t fall into that trap. No days off! Instead, capitalize on your league mates who may have only a superficial appreciation of the upcoming season.
Whether it be due to injury, past performance, or situation, players like Dobbins, Wilson, and Evans have a stigma about them that you can manipulate to your advantage. But do not delay! Jump on these values right away, before these temporary value insecurities are but a memory.
In Closing…
I thoroughly enjoyed bringing you this piece, and would love to continue the conversation on ADP values. Please feel free to comment below or contact me @Spydes78 on Twitter. And also, stay tuned to @DynastyNerds for a steady pipeline of content from our eminently qualified staff to carry you through your offseason. If you like what you read, please consider becoming a subscriber to any of the elite tools that Dynasty Nerds has to offer. Make sure to use the promo code “SPYDES” to receive a 15% discount. Thanks for reading and enjoy the grind!
