The new NFL season starts in eight days, and with free agency looming then, the Texans made an important re-signing to their offense. The Houston Texans are re-signing Dalton Schultz to a three-year, $36 million extension. What does this mean for Schultz’s value among dynasty rankings, and how does this impact the offense?
Locked in with Houston
Schultz owners must be happy to have him re-signing with an up-and-coming offense for fantasy. He signed a one-year prove deal in 2023 with the Texans, and it worked out for both sides. Schultz would have the second-best season of his career with 635 receiving yards and five touchdowns despite missing two games last year. He would finish twelfth in targets, receptions, and receiving yards among all tight ends. He was second among tight ends in EPA among Next Gen Stats with +21.1.
Last season, Schultz was part of an offense with many mouths to feed, with Nico Collins emerging and Tank Dell shining as a rookie. The team also worked with Noah Brown and Bob Woods. After week one, none of them ever played on the field in the same game. Brown is a free agent, and Woods is past his prime. Schultz can quickly come in as the second or third option in this offense with a young quarterback in CJ Stroud.
In the first two weeks of playing on and off with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Schultz was TE7. In Week 12, he suffered a hamstring strain and missed the next two games. Despite not looking the same as earlier in the season, he would still be a TE12 from week 15 and forward.
Dynasty Value
Schultz getting a three-year deal is huge for his dynasty value. He will be 28 years old by the start of the 2024 season, in prime years for TEs. Based on trades with the Dynasty Nerds GM tool, Schultz is valued on par as a significant TE in dynasty circles. I had Schultz as a sell pre-free agency due to his potential of leaving the Texans, but that is not the case anymore.
Unless the Texans make a considerable move for a receiver, which I don’t think they will, then Schultz will be heavily involved. The receiver free agent class is not great, with the top guys getting tagged. The receiver draft class is deep, so using early capital on a receiver may not be in the Texans’ cards, and they can find someone later in the draft.
Dell is the biggest threat to Schultz because of his high upside. If Dell can do what he did as a rookie for an entire season, then Schultz may miss out on the target opportunity. I don’t think there is an overly big market for Schultz, one way or the other. As a contender, he can be an upgrade for your TE position if you’re lacking one. He can also be a player that you may be able to help upsell to get an elite TE.
For the next three seasons, Schultz is now attached to the Texans with a young offense that may lean on its veteran presence. He should be able to command somewhere between 60 and 80 targets and be a red-zone threat for Stroud. Schultz should be a top 10 to 12 dynasty tight end moving forward. He may never get to 100-plus targets in multiple seasons, but he will be a stable player at the TE position on a week-to-week basis.
The Rest of the Offense
For the rest of the offense, there are winners and losers. Stroud gets a solid TE to work with over the next three seasons. He relied on Schultz in the red zone with 14 targets. The Texans need to continue building talent around Stroud. This may be a win for Collins and Dell since the Texans spent up to $36 million to get Schultz on the team. The Texans may not go out and get a big-name receiver to pair with Stroud for the time being.
Schultz is great, but Collins and Dell could still command the targets. If they traded for Tee Higgins or Mike Evan, that would have significantly impacted their values moving forward. If any of your league mates think differently, you should buy both players right now.
Brevin Jordan falls here on the losers’ side since Schultz did re-sign. There was a glimpse that Jordan may have progressed enough to be trusted as the full-time starter, but that’s not the case. Jordan’s production was poor outside of the two games he started instead of Schultz. I think folks held on to him to see if he would be the guy. In dynasty, he could be dropped from your bench at this point. The other loser is the tight end Free Agency class that will be led by Hunter Henry and Noah Fant as we get to March 13th. Outside of maybe Fant, no one could make a significant impact like Schultz could have for another team.
Rookie drafts are approaching fast. Be prepared with the #1 mock draft tool on the market. And it’s FREE. Available for iPhone and Android. Become a DynastyGM subscriber and sync your leagues with the Dynasty Nerds App to mock draft your actual teams.
