Welcome in, Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds have helped you throughout the NFL offseason preparing for the 2023 fantasy football season. Now that your teams are set, it is time to get to work and win some dynasty championships. Every week, our writers will help you with some of the tough decisions and give you insight that you can’t get anywhere else. I will be giving my quarterback start/sits every week to help you set your starting lineups.
Below is a list of all of our weekly positional articles. Please follow us, tweet us, and DM us. We can’t wait to talk football with all of you nerds!
- Changing the Call (QB): Mike Hicks
- The Cutback (RB): Jake Oliver
- Slant Pattern (WR): Tristan Cook
- 12 Formation (TE): Steven Pintado
- Flex on ‘Em (FLEX): Evan Brown
- IDP Start/Sit (IDP): Jon Glosser
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings
LAST WEEK
Week 5 was great for some quarterbacks. Unfortunately, it was not good for my starts of the week. Joshua Dobbs finished as QB22. His final stat line was 166 yards, two TDs, and two INTs. Unfortunately, for my prognostication, Zach Wilson was even worse. Wilson finished with 199 yards and an INT, putting him at QB24.
My sits of the week were not great but were better than my start selections. Trevor Lawrence had 315 yards and a TD, putting him as QB16. This was his fourth game in a row with only 1 TD. Unfortunately for my prediction, Jared Goff showed up big for the Detroit Lions, finishing as QB4. Goff’s final stat line was 236 yards, three TDs, and a rushing TD.
WEEK 6 STARTS
Matthew Stafford, Rams, QB10
Stafford’s start to the 2023 season has been average. He has not had a single top 12 week yet, but he has been a top 24 QB in every game this season. In Week 5, against the Philadelphia Eagles, Stafford had his best finish of the season, ending up QB14. He threw a pair of TDs but also had his lowest game in passing yards with 222 yards. The biggest thing for Stafford and the Rams was the return of star wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Kupp ended the game with eight receptions and 118 yards. With Kupp and the emergence of Puka Nacua, Stafford will look to have an even better performance this week.
In Week 6, the Rams will face a familiar opponent in the Arizona Cardinals. They have not won a lot of games, but they have been competitive in every game so far. The Cardinals have been played in close games, but the defense has definitely been a weak point for the team overall. They are fifth worst in fantasy points allowed to QBs, giving up an average of 23 PPG. The Cardinals have 15 sacks so far on the season. However, they are struggling with other pressure stats. The Cardinals have the second-lowest QB pressure percentage at 16.9%. They also blitz only 19.3%, which is fourth lowest in the NFL. The Cardinal’s defense will need to put pressure on Stafford and make him uncomfortable if they want to slow down his fantasy performance and get a win in Week 6.
Stafford, last week, had the fourth-best ADOT with 9.9 yards. Stafford is the type of quarterback who performs very well when he has a clean pocket. And with a Cardinals defense that has a struggling pass rush, Stafford will look to have an outstanding Week 6 performance. He is currently 14th with a 71.8% clean pocket completion percentage. He also has another week with Kupp and in the offense and will look to continue his connection with Nacua. With an over/under of 48.5, I expect this game to end up being a shootout, which benefits Stafford. He will be a top-12 QB and could finish as high as overall QB8 this week.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys, QB12
So far, the 2023 season has been a struggle for Prescott. His best fantasy performance so far was QB17 in Week 2 against the New York Jets. In Week 5, against the San Francisco 49ers, Prescott and the entire Cowboys team performance was dismal at best. Prescott finished last week as QB25. His final stat line against the 49ers was 153 yards, a TD, and three INTs. With a good defense, Prescott will not always need to be a top fantasy QB for the Cowboys to win games in the NFL. But, yes, this is a game that, if the Cowboys want a chance to win, Prescott will need to have a good fantasy football performance.
The Cowboys are facing the Los Angeles Chargers this week on Monday Night Football. The Chargers are coming off the bye week and hope the defense can step up in Week 6. Unfortunately, the Chargers’ defense is last in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to QBs, giving up 27.2 PPG. They have a decent pass rush, but the weakness on the team is the secondary. The Chargers are also last in passing yards allowed, with an average of 329.3 YPG. The run defense is a little better, ranking 14th in rushing yards allowed per game. Will the Chargers be able to stop a Cowboys team that is in dire need of a good performance from their offense?
Prescott and the Cowboys need the Monday Night Football victory to get their season back on track. Sometimes, players with their backs against the wall come up with their best performances, and that is exactly what Prescott will be looking to do. With the weapons he has against a weak secondary, I believe Prescott will get back on track. The Chargers high powered offense and offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, will look for revenge. For that reason, and the Cowboys trying to get their season back on track, this should be an entertaining game. Prescott should end up being a fringe top-10 QB this week.
WEEK 6 SITS
Sam Howell, Commanders, QB17
The Washington Commanders and Howell have had a rocky start to the 2023 season. He has had two top-12 performances thus far in 2023, and both of those ended up being home games. Week 5 was his best of the season, finishing as QB5 even though it was in a loss to the Bears. That is partly why he finished as QB5 because the Commanders were playing from behind in the majority of the game. His final stat line was 388 yards, two TDs, and an INT. One thing the Commanders need to work on is protecting Howell; they’ve given up ten sacks in the last two weeks.
The Commanders are playing on the road this week against the Atlanta Falcons. The defense has been an improved part of the team so far in 2023. In fantasy points allowed to QBs, the Falcons are 12th in the NFL with 18.5 PPG. But that is not the best aspect of their game, with them being fifth in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Falcons are only giving up 199.2 YPG in the passing game. Their pass rush has been a positive this season. The Falcons are fifth in the NFL with a 28.2% pressure percentage. The Falcons will look to pressure Howell and get another home victory.
Howell, in Week 5, was in a tough matchup and finished eighth in completion percentage with 72.5%. He also had the best under-pressure completion percentage at 80%. But that was in a home game, and this week is on the road. The Falcons have not lost a home game yet this year. This will be a lower-scoring game, with the over/under being only 42. This will be a slow-paced, run-heavy game if either team gets up more than a touchdown. Howell has a big chance to finish outside of QB20.
Geno Smith, Seahawks, QB13
The Seahawks have started the season off with a 3-1 record, but Smith has had a slow start, averaging 14.2 PPG, which is 23rd in the NFL. Smith has one top-10 finish so far when he finished as QB8 in Week 2. Other than that week, it has been a slow start for Smith, having two sub-QB25 performances. He is averaging 13.5 PPG in road games, and in Week 6, they play on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first game after their bye week.
The Bengals have had a rocky start to the season, but they did beat the Cardinals last week to give them a 2-3 record. The defense seems to play better when they play at home in Cincinnati. In fantasy points allowed to QBs, the Bengals are fourth in the NFL with 14.6 PPG. They are also a top-ten defense in passing yards allowed, giving up 213.6 YPG. The Bengals are sixth in the NFL with six interceptions. One thing the Bengals like to do a lot is blitz the quarterback. They are ninth in the NFL with a blitz rate of 33.9%. They have an above-average defense that can keep teams in games as long the offense does their part as well.
One thing Smith has been good at since he became a Seahawk is being accurate with the football. Through his first four games, Smith is third in compilation percentage with a rate of 82.2%. He had a slower start than anticipated in 2023, but that can attributed to a couple of things. The biggest thing to me is the recent success of the Seahawks running game. In the last two games, the running game has averaged 133.5 YPG. I believe this will continue moving forward, which will cap his upside from game to game. Smith will have a better NFL game this week than a fantasy game. He is still a Superflex start but I do not recommend starting him in 1QB leagues.
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