Huddle up, Nerds! You’ve looked to your favorite dynasty site to guide you through the spring and summer months, but a strong offseason alone will not win you a championship. No matter how talented your roster is, you’ll need to make the right lineup decisions to wrest glory from your league mates.
But have no fear! Your Dynasty Nerds writers are here to shepherd you through the minefield of starts and sits. Our staff will make recommendations each week to aid in your lineup decision-making. Look for the position-specific columns below to guide you to dynasty grandeur.
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- Changing the Call (QB): Jayson Snyder (@Spydes78)
- The Cutback (RB): Jake Oliver (@DarthDbacks)
- Slant Pattern (WR): Tristan Cook (@THEtristancook)
- 12 Formation (TE): Ethan Wyatt (@ethanAwyatt)
- Flex on ‘Em (FLEX): Evan Brown (@FFEvanlution)
- IDP Start/Sit (IDP): Jon Glosser (@Glosser13)
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.
About Last Week…
Previous Week Record: 4-0
Season Long Record: 18-2
Week 5 Starts
In the immortal words of Johnny Cash, Changing the Call continued to be “hotter than a pepper sprout” in Week 5. The first of the week’s start recommendations, Joe Burrow found himself in a street fight with the Ravens and came up on the wrong side of a Justin Tucker field goal. However, thanks to a pair of scores (one passing and one rushing), Burrow safely finished inside the top ten.
Though victory again eluded Joe Shiesty on the field, his performance was likely enough to ensure success from a fantasy perspective. Unless he was matched up against Week 5’s other start recommendation, Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs quarterback enjoyed a statistical explosion on Monday night that included 292 yards and four touchdowns. His sterling 30.5 fantasy points ranked second only to Josh Allen’s weekly output.
Week 5 Sits
From a ‘sit’ perspective, I never expected that I would be advising you to relegate Matthew Stafford to your bench so early in this season. However, the trends were looking poor, and the matchup was ugly. And, as it turned out, the advice was justified. Though Stafford did accumulate hollow yards, he managed only one score and was plagued by turnovers. His 11.3 fantasy points against the Cowboys ranked 23rd on the week, disappointing fantasy owners who ignored my warning.
However, a disappointing day from Stafford paled compared to Week 5’s second sit suggestion. Baker Mayfield was again awful. He turned the ball over, failed to score, and ultimately added injury to insult by sustaining a high ankle sprain in a lopsided defeat. His performance was, in fact, so bad that the Panthers fired their head coach by Monday morning. Mayfield’s meager 7.6 fantasy points were a potential lineup crusher, and he now stands to miss a month or so with his injury. With the state of the team and his play thus far in 2022, it’s fair to wonder if he will ever start again for Carolina.
WEEK 6 STARTS
Kyler Murray, ARI (FantasyPros Wk6 ECR: 5)
Week 5 saw Murray put up a valiant effort against a tough Eagles defense in a suddenly hostile ‘home field’ environment. He completed 66.7 percent of his passes while also showcasing the rushing ability that makes him such a dynamic threat. His receiving corps, which had been somewhat inconsistent, finally started to come into focus with Rondale Moore’s return from injury. Great potential lurks behind a dissatisfying 2-3 Cardinal start to the season.
This week’s opponent may provide just the turnaround opportunity that is so sorely needed for Arizona. Murray and the Cards will take the show on the road to face off with the division-rival Seahawks. Thus far, Seattle has been lackluster at stopping the quarterback. Averaging 19.1 fantasy points surrendered per game last week. They allowed even Andy Dalton to post double digits against them. And they are two weeks removed from an embarrassing display that saw Jared Goff drop 34.2 fantasy points on them.
It’s a fruitful matchup, and all of the indicators seem aligned. From a gambling perspective, robust player props exist for Murray this weekend, including 269.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, and 36.5 rushing yards. PFF has the Cardinals quarterback slated as the second highest in their Week 6 projections, forecasting 23.1 fantasy points. And the expert consensus on FantasyPros isn’t far off, naming Murray as their fifth-best quarterback option of the pending slate.
His output for the year may have fallen short of your lofty expectations, but this looks like your patience pays off the week. Insert Murray into your Week 6 lineup with confidence.
Geno Smith, SEA (FantasyPros Wk6 ECR: 10)
Earlier in this installment, I told you that I was surprised to be advising you to bench Matt Stafford so soon. That said, I’m beyond shocked to be recommending the start of Geno Smith for the ensuing week. When Seattle did nothing to fortify the position in the wake of Russell Wilson’s offseason departure, absolutely no one believed that Smith could be a satisfactory replacement. And yet, after five weeks, Smith has been downright exceptional.
PFF has graded Smith’s 2022 performance an eye-popping 90.2, tops in the NFL. He has the Seahawk passing offense perched just outside the top ten, averaging 246.0 passing yards per contest. Though Seattle fell short last week against the Saints, Smith returns to Seattle red-hot, after lighting up the scoreboard with three passing touchdowns in New Orleans.
Smith will square off with the aforementioned Cardinals, who have also been generous to opposing quarterbacks. Though a top-ten unit in 2021, Arizona has fallen off considerably this season. They have thus far forfeited 19.5 fantasy points per game to passers, dreadfully ranking 25th in the league. In their most recent endeavor, they were gouged for 27.7 fantasy points by a visiting Jalen Hurts.
This matchup features one of the highest gaming over/unders of the week, a massive 51 points. With suspect defenses abound, oddsmakers feel that this matchup is poised to be a shootout. Why not double-dip in this scoring bonanza and look into starting both field generals? Murray has a greater pedigree, but it’s hard to argue with Smith’s results. Toss him into your Week 6 lineup, and get your popcorn ready!
WEEK 6 SITS
Marcus Mariota, ATL (FantasyPros Wk6 ECR: 23)
When the Falcons parted ways with long-time quarterback Matt Ryan and settled on free agent Marcus Mariota as a replacement, we all kept our expectations in check. The second overall selection of the 2015 NFL Draft has now become a journeyman in the league.
Mariota’s performance thus far has done little to deviate from that perception. He has notably failed to forge a connection with Kyle Pitts, arguably Atlanta’s finest offensive weapon. With Mariota at the helm, the Falcons have averaged just 166.8 passing yards per game, 30th in the league. Entering Week 6, he carries a 29th-best grade of 61.2 from PFF. With Atlanta struggling, rumbles about benching Mariota in favor of rookie Desmond Ridder have already started to surface.
If that picture seems bleak, wait until you hear about the Falcons’ Week 6 opponent. The visiting 49ers have been absolutely suffocating to quarterbacks. Only once in five opportunities has a quarterback achieved double-digit fantasy points against them this season. Their defense has held opposing quarterbacks to just 8.9 fantasy points per game, the best in the league. Not exactly an ideal matchup for a temporary quarterback leading a floundering organization.
Let’s look at the gambling indicators. The Niners are favored by 5.5 with a modest over/under of 44.5 total points, indicating that it may be a struggle for the home Falcons to crack 20 points on the scoreboard. Additionally, betsperts.com lists a lean player prop of fewer than 200 yards passing for Mariota on the day. Low scoring and minimal passing yardage? It certainly doesn’t seem like a winning formula.
With a tough matchup and better options elsewhere, keep Marcus Mariota on your bench this weekend. Thinking that he’ll have success against the Forty-Niners is totally fools gold.
Kenny Pickett, PIT (FantasyPros Wk6 ECR: 25)
As the now undisputed starting quarterback of the Steelers, the future seems bright for first-round pick Pickett. Though the score was heavily lopsided, he afforded himself quite well last week in his first full-time duty against a challenging Buffalo squad. Pickett dropped a gaudy 327 yards on the Bills and showed the potential that earned him an early phone call in April’s NFL Draft.
Unfortunately, many of those accumulated yards were also somewhat hollow. The tenacious Buffalo attack ultimately forced a turnover and held the young signal caller without a score. It was an excellent start for Pickett, but 13.1 fantasy points won’t win many matchups.
This brings us to the task ahead for the pride of Pittsburgh. After a brutal draw last week, life won’t get any easier on Sunday when Pickett squares off with the visiting Buccaneers. With a lively pass rush, agile linebackers, and a capable secondary, Tampa has all the pieces to make things tough on the opposition. They’ve been a top-ten unit thus far in 2022, surrendering just 14.4 fantasy points to quarterbacks.
The mismatch of a stout defense against a rookie quarterback has handicappers favoring the Buccaneers by a massive 8.5 in this game. According to betsperts.com, the line on Pickett’s passing yards is a meager 224.5. Experts are not expecting much from the youngster in this game, and I am inclined to agree. Don’t be on the fence when it comes to this decision. Sit Kenny Pickett against the Bucs.
In Closing…
I thoroughly enjoyed bringing you this piece and would love to continue the conversation on quarterback start/sits. Please feel free to comment below or contact me @Spydes78 on Twitter. And also, stay tuned to @DynastyNerds for a steady pipeline of content from our eminently qualified staff to carry you through your season. If you like what you read, please consider becoming a subscriber to any of the elite tools that Dynasty Nerds has to offer. Make sure to use the promo code “SPYDES” to receive a 15% discount. Thanks for reading, and enjoy the grind!
