Huddle up, Nerds! You’ve looked to your favorite dynasty site to guide you through the spring and summer months, but a strong offseason alone will not win you a championship. No matter how talented your roster, you’ll need to make the right lineup decisions to wrestle glory from your league mates.
But have no fear! Your Dynasty Nerds writers are here to shepherd you through the minefield of starts and sits. Each week, our staff will make recommendations to aid in your lineup decision-making. Look for the position-specific columns below to guide you to dynasty grandeur.
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- Changing the Call (QB): Jayson Snyder (@Spydes78)
- The Cutback (RB): Jake Oliver (@DarthDbacks)
- Slant Pattern (WR): Tristan Cook (@THEtristancook)
- 12 Formation (TE): Ethan Wyatt (@ethanAwyatt)
- Flex on ‘Em (FLEX): Evan Brown (@FFEvanlution)
- IDP Start/Sit (IDP): Jon Glosser (@Glosser13)
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.
About Last Week…
Previous Week Record: 1-3
Season Long Record: 45-19
Week 16 Starts:
Like so many fantasy managers, Changing the Call found coal in our stocking for Week 16. With a porous pass defense and a surging Christian Watson, I anticipated a big day from Aaron Rodgers in Miami. And though the Packers would ultimately prevail, they did not taste victory based on the arm of Rodgers. Watson was held to under 50 yards, and Rodgers mustered only a single airborne touchdown, rendering him the 14th-best option on the week.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, another future Hall of Famer ground out a victory lacking in style points. Tom Brady was surprisingly putrid against a vulnerable Cardinals squad until his characteristic late-game heroics were sufficient to carry the day. His 281 yards passing total was respectable, but with a pair of picks and only a single score to his credit, Brady fell to 17th among fantasy starters.
Week 16 Sits:
Perhaps the most shocking of the misguided holiday recommendations came in the form of the beleaguered Mac Jones. After struggling mightily in recent weeks, Jones rebounded to post 240 yards and a pair of touchdowns against a stout Bengals defense. His 17.5 fantasy points in Week 16 unexpectedly outpaced Tua Tagovailoa, Deshaun Watson, and Justin Fields. Good on you if you saw that coming.
y lone redemption for the week came at the hands of Taylor Heinicke. After struggling against the Niners dominant defense and committing two turnovers, Heinicke was replaced by a healthy Carson Wentz. Before departing, Heinicke amassed just 11.2 fantasy points, which left him a lowly 23rd on the week.
WEEK 17 STARTS
Justin Fields, CHI (FantasyPros Wk17 ECR: 3)
2022 has been a tale of two windy cities for the sophomore Bears quarterback. In Weeks 1 through 8, Fields averaged just 16.0 fantasy points per game, which ranked 19th among his peers. Since then, he’s boosted that ranking to second overall by securing a robust 26.9 fantasy points per game. The turnaround has been quite remarkable and speaks volumes about Fields’ promise moving forward.
In Week 17, Fields will lead his Bears into Detroit for a late-season divisional grudge match. The Lions, clawing for a final playoff berth, are fresh off of a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of the Panthers. The security of a dome game in late January is always for fantasy managers. That said, playing in that dome against a leaky Lions defense should give you even more comfort.
Detroit ranks dead last in the NFL, surrendering an average of 23.0 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. In Week 16, they made Sam Darnold a Top 10 quarterback by allowing 21.9 points to a fringe starter. Giving up over 400 yards per game, another dubious last-place distinction, a matchup with the Lions defense should have Fields salivating.
With a gaudy over/under of 52 points, the highest of the week, it’s clear that oddsmakers are anticipating a shoutout in this contest. And given how barren the Chicago landscape is for offensive playmakers, Fields stands to benefit directly from a potential point bonanza. Get Fields in your lineup, and don’t get left out in the cold.
Brock Purdy, SF (FantasyPros Wk17 ECR: 15)
Irrelevant no more. The final draft selection of the 2022 NFL Draft, rookie signal caller Brock Purdy has proven his weight in gold to the Niners. Since assuming the starting role after a serious injury to Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13, the unheralded Purdy has averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game. That’s more than fantasy standouts Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, or Tom Brady managed over the same stretch.
Thanks to the electrifying play of Purdy, San Francisco has continued a winning streak which now sits at eight games. They will look to extend that number to nine when they visit Las Vegas on New Year’s Day. There they will encounter a Raiders team that has been more than accommodating to the opposition.
Allowing 244.3 passing yards per game, Las Vegas is a bottom-six passing defense in the league. This has translated to fantasy success for opposing quarterbacks, who’ve averaged 18.8 fantasy points against the Raiders, the 6th most vulnerable squad in this regard. Pair this soft defense with a temperature-controlled dome environment, and you begin to see what makes Purdy so appealing in this contest.
As expected, San Francisco is favored by nearly a touchdown in this lopsided matchup. With an over/under of 45 points, the Niners are forecast to put up more than 25 points against the home Raiders. Vegas has had a disastrous season by all accounts, and it seems unlikely they will put up much of a fight as they limp to the finish line. Trust your championship aspirations to the upstart Niners quarterback, and you’ll be sitting Purdy.
WEEK 17 SITS
Andy Dalton, NO (FantasyPros Wk17 ECR: 26)
Though the Saints have strung together a pair of late-season wins in their quest for glory in a comically bad NFC South, Andy Dalton has been nothing to write home about. Dalton has averaged 121.5 passing yards and one touchdown throughout this mini-win streak. This translates to 8.4 fantasy points per game, which ranks 36th in the league. This is the part where I remind you that there are only 32 teams in the league, which means backups (see Taysom Hill) in spot plays have usurped Dalton’s production in recent weeks.
In Week 17, the Saints clinging to their playoff lives will attempt to keep hope alive when they visit Philadelphia. The Eagles, fresh off of a divisional defeat to the Cowboys, don’t figure to make that an easy task. With an opportunity to clinch the top seed and procure a first-round bye, the stakes are high for the host Eagles as well.
On the field, the Eagles have been stifling the opposition in 2022. Allowing just over 300 total yards per game, Philadelphia is second-best in the league at clamping down on offenses. Allowing just 13.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and with 61 sacks on the season, they routinely make life difficult for passers.
New Orleans is a massive underdog, with bookkeepers giving the Eagles a 6.5-point advantage. Factor in the over/under of 44, and the forecasted total for the Saints comes to fewer than 20 points in this matchup.
Do you trust a struggling Andy Dalton to break out on the road against a top defense? I certainly would not, and thus I advise you to keep him safely on the bench for this week.
Kenny Pickett, PIT (FantasyPros Wk17 ECR: 23)
Kenny Pickett’s appearance on the sit list is more of an affirmation of his growing pains than a condemnation of his future potential. He’s simply not yet a finished product as a pro, and it has shown on the field.
Last week, against a ghastly Raiders defense that has surrendered the 6th most fantasy points to quarterbacks, Pickett managed just 13.7. He brings an uninspiring 5:9 touchdown to interception ratio into Week 17 and helms a Steeler team that ranks 24th in passing proficiency with 204.6 yards per game.
Pickett’s opponent for Week 17 is none other than division foe Baltimore. There is certainly no love lost between these franchises, and every clash seems to be a grind befitting of the ‘Black and Blue’ division moniker.
Despite being a doormat through the early part of the season, the Ravens have turned it on defensively as of late. Over their last three games, Baltimore has held opposing quarterbacks to a suffocating 11.4 fantasy points per game. At 10-5, they have already punched their ticket to the postseason and will be hungry to improve their position, with a division title still hanging in the balance.
From a betting standpoint, this matchup has by far the lowest over/under of the slate at 35 total points. With the home Ravens slightly favored, the anticipated point total for the Steelers comes to a measly 16.3. Factor in the potential for turnovers, and there is simply not enough upside to consider starting Pickett in this game. Look elsewhere when setting your Week 17 lineup.
In Closing…
I thoroughly enjoyed bringing you this piece and would love to continue the conversation on quarterback starts/sits. Please feel free to comment below or contact me @Spydes78 on Twitter. And also, stay tuned to @DynastyNerds for a steady pipeline of content from our eminently qualified staff to carry you through your season. If you like what you read, please consider becoming a subscriber to any of the elite tools that Dynasty Nerds has to offer. Make sure to use the promo code “SPYDES” to receive a 15% discount. Thanks for reading, and enjoy the grind!
