Huddle up, Nerds! You’ve looked to your favorite dynasty site to guide you through the spring and summer months, but a strong offseason alone will not win you a championship. No matter how talented your roster is, you’ll need to make the right lineup decisions to wrestle glory from your league mates.
But have no fear! Your Dynasty Nerds writers are here to shepherd you through the minefield of starts and sits. Our staff will make recommendations each week to aid in your lineup decision-making. Look for the position-specific columns below to guide you to dynasty grandeur.
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- Changing the Call (QB): Jayson Snyder (@Spydes78)
- The Cutback (RB): Jake Oliver (@DarthDbacks)
- Slant Pattern (WR): Tristan Cook (@THEtristancook)
- 12 Formation (TE): Ethan Wyatt (@ethanAwyatt)
- Flex on ‘Em (FLEX): Evan Brown (@FFEvanlution)
- IDP Start/Sit (IDP): Jon Glosser (@Glosser13)
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.
About Last Week…
Previous Week Record: 4-0
Season Long Record: 44-16
Week 15 Starts
Week 15 once again provided a clean sweep of the recommended slate for Changing the Call. Josh Allen was surgical against the Dolphins, eclipsing 300 yards with four scores on the day. His 35.9 fantasy points were second only to Jalen Hurts’ outburst against the Bears.
Meanwhile, in Jacksonville, Dak Prescott also piled up the stats. And though an ill-advised interception in overtime proved to be the difference maker, fantasy owners were still grateful to have Dak in their lineup. His Top 10 finish on the week surely boosted many fantasy enthusiasts into their semifinal matchup.
Week 15 Sits
When it came to the sit suggestions, things were equally in focus. Though the Lions’ late-season heroics continued against the Jets, Jared Goff struggled to find paydirt. With a solitary touchdown for the day, he was left with a lackluster 14.1 fantasy points. His 17th-place finish was well below his FantasyPros ranking of 12th.
And lastly, on Monday night, Baker Mayfield predictably struggled mightily against a stiff Packers squad. He managed just 111 yards passing and accrued an interception at frosty Lambeau. With just 7.5 fantasy points, Mayfield finished a woeful 29th on the week.
WEEK 16 STARTS
Aaron Rodgers, GB (FantasyPros Wk16 ECR: 11)
Much has been made about the struggles of the Green Bay offense in 2022. Critics quickly point out a lack of chemistry between Rodgers and his youthful receivers. These are inexperienced receivers walking in the shadow of the departed Devante Adams, a significant challenge.
However, there have been signs of hope for the Packers’ passing offense in recent weeks. Christian Watson, a 2nd round selection just months ago, ranks 7th in fantasy average over the last five weeks with 16.9 points per game. He has outpaced players like A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, and D.K. Metcalf during that stretch. It doesn’t fit the narrative of a struggling offense, does it?
In Week 16, Green Bay will shed the suppressing December chill of Wisconsin and head for Miami. There they’ll find a Dolphins defense that has embraced the spirit of giving. Offenses have put up an average of 24.1 points against Miami, making them a Bottom 10 unit.
As such, quarterbacks have feasted on them regularly, with an average QBR of 95.7 when facing the Dolphins. Lastly, where it matters most, Miami has surrendered an average of 21.3 fantasy points to QBs, which ranks 31st in the league. Despite contending for a playoff spot, Miami has been an oasis for struggling offenses.
With a 49.5 point over/under, it’s clear that the bookkeepers are expecting a high-scoring affair in this Christmas Day matchup. Fire up Rodgers for a sneaky fantasy playoff start, and enjoy the show!
Tom Brady, TB (FantasyPros Wk16 ECR: 14)
Brady has struggled this season, leading Tampa Bay to just six wins in 14 tries. As such, many have openly speculated whether he’s finally lost a step or if the end may be nigh. However, if we’ve learned anything about Tom Brady over his 22-year career, it’s never to count him out.
Those six wins are still enough to have the Buccaneers sitting atop a pathetic NFC South division and controlling their own destiny. Win their next three against opponents with a combined record of 14-28, and they’ll be hosting a home playoff game come January. Proper motivation, indeed.
That quest begins on Christmas night when Brady and the Bucs will visit Arizona. Tampa should be quite comfortable in the desert, as the Cardinals have been quite accommodating to their opponents. Quarterbacks, in particular, have enjoyed tangling with the Cards. With an average QBR of 101.0, only the Chiefs and Raiders have been worse at locking down passers. This reality is glaring in the fantasy statistics, where Arizona forfeits an average of 18.5 fantasy points to quarterbacks, ranking 25th among defenses.
A motivated Brady, desperate to ensure a clean punctuation to a storied career? A Cardinals defense routinely abused worse than Rudolph before the fog? You see where this is headed, right? Oddsmakers surely do, as they’ve installed the visiting Bucs as a massive 6.5-point favorite.
Brady has his sights set on the playoffs, and you should too. Ride with a future Hall of Famer this week, and punch your ticket to the championship round.
WEEK 16 SITS
Mac Jones, NE (FantasyPros Wk16 ECR: 26)
When we last saw Mac Jones, the second-year pro, was getting stiff-armed into oblivion on an inconceivably poor lateral play gone wrong that ended his day in Las Vegas. In that game, Jones managed 111 passing yards and no touchdowns against a Raiders defense that ranked 28th, allowing 19.2 fantasy points per game.
Over the last three weeks, Jones has averaged 9.4 fantasy points, fewer than end-of-roster chaff such as Davis Mills, Marcus Mariota, and Baker Mayfield. He has thrown just one solitary touchdown pass over that same interim. The struggles between him and coach Matt Patricia have been real and, at times, obvious.
In Week 16, Jones will face the unenviable task of climbing out of his slump against a surging Bengals defense. The reigning AFC champs have put the clamps on quarterbacks this season, surrendering an average QBR of just 80.7, a top-five defense in that regard. In fantasy parlance, they have allowed just 13.8 fantasy points per game to passers, the seventh-stingiest unit in the NFL.
The road Bengals are favored by more than a field goal, with a lean over/under of 41.5. These are clear indications that the gambling community is conscious of New England’s offensive struggles and the potential for a poor matchup with Cincy. Keep Mac Jones away from your starting lineup if you expect to have any chance of advancing in the fantasy playoffs in Week 16.
Taylor Heinicke, WAS (FantasyPros Wk16 ECR: 25)
The Cinderella story was fun while it lasted, but it appears that the clock is about to strike midnight for the upstart Heinicke. Everyone loves an underdog, but the truth is that the Commanders’ quarterback lacks the tools to be a sustainable NFL starter.
In his most recent appearance, Heinicke guided Washington to 12 points in primetime against a Giants defense that had been gouged for 48 just a week prior. His two turnovers proved costly, and the Commanders’ grip on the last NFC playoff spot grew even more tenuous in defeat.
Over his last three appearances, Heinicke has averaged just 15.5 fantasy points. Posting just 175 yards and one touchdown per game over this stretch, playoff dreams in Washington seem to be slipping away.
If Taylor thought that the Giants’ defense was tough to handle, wait until he gets a look at his Week 16 opponent, San Francisco. The Niners have held opponents to a scant, league-best 15.8 points per game while surrendering an average of 208.3 passing yards. They are the third most imposing fantasy defense for quarterbacks, allowing just 12.9 fantasy points per game. They’ve given even the most talented signal callers fits, as evidenced by recent round defeats of Tua Tagovailoa and Tom Brady.
With the home Niners favored by a touchdown and a low 38 point over/under, the oddsmakers see the handwriting on the wall for this Christmas Eve matchup. In this matchup of playoff contenders, San Francisco figures to put the Commanders’ pass game in a vice. Keep Taylor Heinicke on your bench if you hope to unwrap a championship-round berth this holiday season.
I thoroughly enjoyed this piece and would love to continue the conversation on quarterback starts/sits. Please feel free to comment below or contact me @Spydes78 on Twitter. And also, stay tuned to @DynastyNerds for a steady pipeline of content from our eminently qualified staff to carry you through your season. If you like what you read, please consider subscribing to any of the elite tools that Dynasty Nerds offers. Use the promo code “SPYDES” to receive a 15% discount. Thanks for reading, and enjoy the grind!
