Huddle up, Nerds! You’ve looked to your favorite dynasty site to guide you through the spring and summer months, but a strong offseason alone will not win you a championship. No matter how talented your roster is, you’ll need to make the right lineup decisions to wrestle glory from your league mates.
But have no fear! Your Dynasty Nerds writers are here to shepherd you through the minefield of starts and sits. Each week, our staff will make recommendations to aid in your lineup decision making. Look for the position-specific columns below to guide you to dynasty grandeur.
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- Changing the Call (QB): Jayson Snyder (@Spydes78)
- The Cutback (RB): Jake Oliver (@DarthDbacks)
- Slant Pattern (WR): Tristan Cook (@THEtristancook)
- 12 Formation (TE): Ethan Wyatt (@ethanAwyatt)
- Flex on ‘Em (FLEX): Evan Brown (@FFEvanlution)
- IDP Start/Sit (IDP): Jon Glosser (@Glosser13)
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.
About Last Week…
Previous Week Record: 4-0
Season Long Record: 40-16
Week 14 Starts:
Changing the Call continued its hot streak heading into the fantasy playoffs with a flawless Week 14. Kirk Cousins set the tone by serving up a career day to stud wideout Justin Jefferson. Jefferson’s 223 receiving yards passing, a personal best, buoyed his quarterback up the fantasy charts. Even in a losing effort, Cousins’ whopping 425 yards and a pair of scores placed him squarely in the Top 5 of fantasy options.
Later, in primetime, Justin Herbert took the ‘start’ baton. And, as expected, he continued his late-season surge against a weak pass defense. Herbert’s 367-yard assault on the Dolphins was good for 19.5 fantasy points, placing him as another Top 10 choice.
Week 14 Sits:
On the ‘sit’ side, you have to admire the moxie of poor Mike White. The Jets replacement quarterback was battered and bruised from the jump by the rival Bills. White twice was forced from the game with rib injuries and ultimately landed in the hospital for evaluation of potential internal injuries. Unfortunately, there are no fantasy points awarded for intestinal fortitude, and thus White’s harrowing day left him with just 10.7 points.
For Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson, there was simply too much rust to shake in just his second game back in the NFL. And though he would eventually show flashes of what inspired the Browns to sell the farm in acquiring him, it was too little, too late. The Browns went down in defeat to the rival Bengals, and Watson posted a middling fantasy total, finishing as the 14th-best quarterback on the week.
WEEK 15 STARTS
Josh Allen, BUF (FantasyPros Wk15 ECR: 3)
Playoff time calls for the big guns, right? And no one in the league has a bigger cannon than Josh Allen.
Despite struggling with an elbow strain sustained in mid-November, Allen has remained in the top pantheon of fantasy performers. His 90.3 grade from PFF ranks second in the league, and he has stewarded Buffalo to 263.4 passing yards per game, a Top 10 mark. He comes fresh off another 20+ fantasy point finish against the Jets, who have held quarterbacks to a stingy 14.2-point average. He’s talented and peaking, folks.
Allen’s impressive resume alone should have you sold. However, when you hear about his Week 15 opponent, you’ll be simply salivating. The Dolphins will be packing up the heaters and heading to Orchard Park for a frigid December showdown in western New York. They had better bring some defense with them too.
Though impressive in the win column, Miami has been woeful on defense. Forfeiting 24.1 points per game and an average QBR of 95.7, they are a Bottom ten unit. This is reflected in their fantasy performance, where they rank 29th in the NFL, allowing 20.2 fantasy points per game to signal callers. They routinely get torched by talented quarterbacks.
I think you see where this is headed. The host Bills are favored by 7.5 against an 8-win Dolphin team with playoff aspirations. A forecasted 25-point performance orchestrated by a top quarterback against one of the more suspect defenses in the league? Count me in! Allen is an absolute must-start in Week 15.
Dak Prescott, DAL (FantasyPros Wk15 ECR: 6)
I get it. The last time we saw Dak Prescott, he and the Cowboys were eking out a narrow home victory over the 1-win Texans. It’s not exactly the type of positive momentum you want to see for a ‘start’ consideration. However, not many folks realize that Houston has actually been remarkably strong in pass defense this season. In fact, the Texans are currently tied with the Eagles as the most stalwart defenses against quarterbacks, allowing just 12.1 fantasy points per game.
Taking a broader view, Prescott has actually played quite well in recent weeks. In fact, over his past five starts, the Cowboys quarterback has been a Top 10 play, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per contest. And he helms a potent Dallas offense that often scores points in bunches, averaging 27.7 per game, behind only the Eagles and Chiefs.
In Week 15, his opponent should pose much less of a challenge as Prescott, and the Cowboys visit Jacksonville. The hapless Jags rank 30th in the league, allowing 255.5 passing yards per game. From a fantasy perspective, they have surrendered 18.9 fantasy points per game, 25th in the league. The Jaguars are precisely the type of weak adversary that quarterbacks covet in the late-season stretch.
The betting markets have settled on Dallas as a four-point favorite and a robust over/under of 48 in this matchup. With a predicted total approaching four touchdowns, put your fantasy money on Prescott and his explosive Cowboys offense against the Jags.
WEEK 15 SITS
Baker Mayfield, LAR (FantasyPros Wk15 ECR: 29)
There’s no denying the electric nature of Baker’s debut in Los Angeles. After successfully requesting his release from the Panthers, Mayfield was claimed a day later by the QB-depleted Rams. Within hours of that fateful decision and armed with the most cursory knowledge of the playbook, he engineered a dramatic comeback victory for the ages.
Not surprisingly, Baker has ridden this debut into being the toast of the football community in recent days. People are excited about his performance, and rightfully so. However, don’t let those good vibes goad you into making a terrible mistake.
Factoring in that miraculous Thursday night appearance, Baker’s PFF grade on the season is still a lackluster 53.7, 34th among eligible passers. From a weaponry standpoint, nearly all the potency that carried the Rams to a Super Bowl less than a year ago is gone. Across their offense, Los Angeles is relying on third and fourth-level options to close out an incredibly disappointing season.
Baker will again be featured in primetime when he and the Rams visit Green Bay on Monday night. He will be hoping for an improvement over his last visit to Lambeau, which yielded a career-high four interceptions. The Packers don’t figure to make that an easy development, given their established stout pass defense. Green Bay has allowed just 15.2 fantasy points to passers, making them a Top 10 unit of 2022.
It was a fun story but not one to hitch your playoff hopes to. Avoid Baker, as he and the sputtering Rams stand to be frozen out of the stat sheet in their visit to the Wisconsin tundra.
Jared Goff, DET (FantasyPros Wk15 ECR: 12)
Surprisingly, Jared Goff has helmed a late-season Lions resurgence. Over the last two weeks, Goff ranks third amongst fantasy options scoring 23.9 points per game. A true underdog story, the castoff Ram has Detroit making an unexpected playoff push. So why the cold water?
Well, firstly, the opposition for those recent victories has been the Jags and the Vikings. Punching bags of the NFL, these clubs have surrendered a combined average of 19.2 fantasy points to quarterbacks. Pretty fruitful ground.
In fact, when you step back from the recency ledge, you see that Goff has had a very ho-hum 2022. His completion percentage of 65.3 ranks 18th in the NFL, and he’s managed just one game-winning drive. PFF ranks him 23rd in the league with a grade of 67.6. He’s been the beneficiary of a low bar in Detroit.
In Week 15, the competition will ratchet up a notch when the Lions take on the Jets. With the addition of standout corner Sauce Gardner, New York’s pass defense has taken a massive leap. They have routinely made life difficult on the opposition, allowing a measly 14.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. On their home turf, and with their own playoff lives hanging in the balance, the Jets figure to pose quite the challenge.
Look no further than the oddsmakers for confirmation of this adversity. The Lions, just a week ago the favorite against the 10-win Vikings, have been installed as a 1-point underdog in this matchup. More importantly, a modest over/under of 44.5 portends a tight, low-scoring affair.
Seeing the Lions be relevant again makes everyone feel good. Just don’t let your heart come before your head. Look elsewhere than Detroit this weekend, where something feels a bit, Goff.
In Closing…
I thoroughly enjoyed bringing you this piece and would love to continue the conversation on quarterback starts/sits. Please feel free to comment below or contact me @Spydes78 on Twitter. And also, stay tuned to @DynastyNerds for a steady pipeline of content from our eminently qualified staff to carry you through your season. If you like what you read, please consider becoming a subscriber to any of the elite tools that Dynasty Nerds has to offer. Make sure to use the promo code “SPYDES” to receive a 15% discount. Thanks for reading, and enjoy the grind!
